Predictions
69 of 1,607 predictions match — page 2 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 232_025 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates. | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 235_032 | Robotics | Optimus | Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2032-08-31 |
| 236_021 | Robotics | Optimus | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2034-11-30 |
| 238_052 | Markets/Stocks | AGI | $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis inter… | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 232_046 | Space | SpaceX | SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars afte… | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2029-06-01 – 2029-06-30 |
| ROB_010 | Robotics | watts-are-wealth | 'Watts are wealth' — as machines progressively take over physical production,… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 48.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| 232_045 | Energy | SpaceX | Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 239_027 | Macro/Economy | economy | Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 239_001 | Macro/Economy | economy | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 239_008 | Space | AGI | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 239_009 | Space | AGI | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 239_010 | Space | AGI | Mass driver on the moon within 10 years | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 246_003 | Macro/Economy | economy | Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 248_009 | Macro/Economy | economy | Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 232_047 | Space | AGI | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-susta… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2037-06-01 – 2037-06-30 |
| SPC_011 | Space | lunar-factories-500-1000TW | Lunar-surface factories leveraging local resources will manufacture satellite… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 5.0% | pending | 2040-01-01 – 2060-10-31 |
| SPC_010 | Space | Mars-self-sustaining-1M-2050 | Establishment of a self-sustaining city on Mars populated by 1 million people… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 8.0% | pending | 2050-01-01 – 2050-11-30 |
| 239_017 | Other | AGI | Future is 80%+ likely to be great | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | — – — |
| 239_026 | Other | AGI | Future will be very entertaining | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | — – — |