Predictions
120 of 1,607 predictions match — page 2 of 3. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 238_029 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_032 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | End-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall' | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_063 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x mor… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_064 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will f… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_065 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 239_015 | Labor/Jobs | AGI | Tesla output per employee will become very very high | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_038 | Labor/Jobs | humanoids | Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans | Jason Calacanis | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_049 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 242_028 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Goldman Sachs | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_029 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employees | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 242_030 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Near-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_032 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 243_037 | Labor/Jobs | autonomous | Drivers will be able to transition to becoming fleet managers/owners of auton… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_038 | Labor/Jobs | autonomous | Capital assets (cars) will at some point replace some labor (drivers) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 244_022 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Automation will typically augment work rather than replace it | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 244_024 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 244_025 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation pace | Dara Khosrowshahi | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_014 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Publicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quickly | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_014 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accoun… | Unnamed friend (accountant manager) | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 239_016 | Labor/Jobs | AGI | Tesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcount | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_039 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational si… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_043 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_051 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_009 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_012 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Jobs impact from AI will occur at some point | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_030 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automation | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_037 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of work | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_018 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Young software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in r… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_054 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| 234_034 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced… | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 236_005 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Anthropic predicts 50% of entry-level white collar jobs automated in 1-5 years | Dario Amodei / Anthropic | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 236_023 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | AI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 m… | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| 248_017 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commo… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| AI_011 | Labor/Jobs | programmers-replaced | The vast majority of human programmers will be entirely replaced by AI within… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| INF_028 | Labor/Jobs | white-collar-automation | AI will render approximately 99% of white-collar jobs replaceable within two … | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| INF_038 | Labor/Jobs | UHI-social-unrest | The transition to Universal High Income (UHI) necessitated by AI-driven labor… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| 230_012 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivit… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_014 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI t… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_003 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by tw… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 233_001 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling em… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_024 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_002 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | AI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to exce… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 248_015 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 231_043 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Lack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young peopl… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_004 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productiv… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_005 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_026 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek emp… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_027 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Entry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but … | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_028 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' … | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 233_013 | Labor/Jobs | humanoids | Not a good time to be an Uber driver as robotaxis expand. | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |