Predictions
389 of 1,621 predictions match — page 3 of 8. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI_002 | AI | country-of-geniuses-datacenter | Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses i… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| AI_004 | AI | smarter-than-smartest-human | AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automat… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| AI_005 | AI | jagged-intelligence | Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at inte… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AI_010 | AI | Slopacolypse-code-atrophy | The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the… | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | A | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| AI_014 | AI | agent-native-infrastructure | A new 'Agent-Native Infrastructure' category emerges — legacy digital infrast… | Marc Andreessen | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| AI_016 | AI | AI-experience-curve-vs-Moore | The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AI_023 | AI | synthetic-CEO-clone | Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive te… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AUT_001 | AI | HIM-5-agent-autonomous-org | The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-ag… | Alex Finn | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AUT_002 | AI | unified-mathematical-substrate | Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unif… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| AUT_009 | AI | Powerful-AI-nation-of-geniuses | 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nati… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| AUT_010 | AI | alignment-catastrophic-failure | As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executor… | Daniella Amodei | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| AUT_014 | AI | open-source-autonomous-proliferation | Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary … | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| AUT_016 | AI | Rubin-Alpamayo-Mercedes-2026 | NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AUT_019 | AI | GPU-rental-50-percent-spike | Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — … | Kevin Weil | 4/5 | C | 80.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| AUT_021 | AI | multimodal-data-entropy-bottleneck | Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms sp… | Marc Andreessen | 5/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| AUT_024 | AI | massive-AI-breakthrough-H1-2026 | H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented conc… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CMQ_001 | AI | AGI-capability-roadmap | By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual intern… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CMQ_004 | AI | AGI-capability-roadmap | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professio… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| CMQ_005 | AI | software-automation | AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_009 | AI | AGI-realism | Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is '… | Demis Hassabis | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| CMQ_010 | AI | AGI-definition | True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class … | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| CMQ_011 | AI | AI-alignment | AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEF… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| CMQ_022 | AI | superintelligence | AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw c… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| CMQ_047 | AI | autonomous-agents | Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on comple… | Andrej Karpathy | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| CMQ_057 | AI | democratization | Democratization of sophisticated AI tools means any 'kid in a basement' can n… | Mark Cuban | 4/5 | B | 85.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| CMQ_059 | AI | local-compute-drivers | Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost cont… | Alex Finn | 4/5 | B | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CYB_003 | AI | autonomous-agent-societies | Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their … | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 62.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| CYB_004 | AI | AAIF-interoperability-standards | The Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF) under the Linux Foundation — backed by Dorse… | Jack Dorsey | 4/5 | C | 58.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-09-30 |
| CYB_005 | AI | memory-becomes-moat | 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' … | Ray Kurzweil | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| CYB_009 | AI | TPU-to-GPU-architectural-rewrite | Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewri… | David Holz | 4/5 | C | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| CYB_012 | AI | recommendation-poisoning | 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, trainin… | Alex Finn | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-08-31 |
| CYB_022 | AI | LiteLLM-supply-chain-vulnerability | Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exem… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| CYB_029 | AI | centralized-decentralized-schism | Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesse… | Anthropic | 4/5 | B | 88.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| FUT_003 | AI | extinction-risk-0.38-vs-3-percent | Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinc… | Superforecaster Community | 4/5 | B | 100.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| FUT_004 | AI | Large-Action-Models-displace-LLMs | Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 202… | Amy Webb | 5/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| FUT_021 | AI | physical-friction-governor-on-ASI | Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted ph… | Superforecaster Community | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| INF_009 | AI | organoid-computing | The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_026 | AI | software-3.0-utility | 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requir… | Andrej Karpathy | 4/5 | B | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_030 | AI | SMB-democratization | By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabiliti… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| INF_031 | AI | AI-company-risk | The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting w… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_036 | AI | kinetic-edge-AI | AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous veh… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 65.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| INF_043 | AI | intelligence-deflation | Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driv… | Marc Andreessen | 5/5 | B | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| ROB_003 | AI | science-25-in-5-years | AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery … | Kevin Weil | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| SPC_017 | AI | multimodal-data-entropy | Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pip… | Jennifer Li | 3/5 | C | 70.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| SPC_022 | AI | AI-science-2026 | '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering'… | Kevin Weil | 5/5 | B | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| SPC_027 | AI | trillion-dollar-agent-economy | A 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence —… | Alex Finn | 5/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 231_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, … | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 35.0% | miss | 2026-03-01 – 2026-03-31 |
| 231_018 | AI | AI-scaling | Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | miss | 2026-03-01 – 2026-03-31 |
| 247_058 | AI | AI-scaling | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| 229_042 | AI | AI-scaling | Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, ac… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |