Timeline Fan

82 of 82 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — ATP-BIO consortium or NIH funds >=$50M dedicated organ-banking initiativepre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Reversibly cryopreserved mammalian organ successfully transplanted into recipientpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — 21st Century Medicine or competitor publishes large-mammal whole-brain reversible vitrificationpre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — FDA opens pre-IND track for vitrified-organ transplant trialcascade #1 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First UNOS-listed transplant using cryopreserved organcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-02-19 — VITARI pre-orders open H1 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First VITARI commercial shipment in H2 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent customer benchmarks confirm $100/genome at >=Q30 90%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — State-level lab-grown meat bans repealed or struck downpre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cultivated meat production cost falls below $20/lb wholesalepre #3 · pending · 2028-04-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cultivated meat captures >1% of US ground meat retail dollarspre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 Q1 funding alone reaches ~$1.94B aggregatepre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Mega-round (>=$200M) in longevity therapeutics announced in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q1 2026 longevity funding rounds disclose mid-year totalscascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First IPO or major exit by longevity-pure-play in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — 2026 full-year longevity VC reaches $12B floorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Diamandis Abundance360 Longevity Trip 2026 confirms market thesispre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major pharma cap-ex reallocation toward longevity / aging programspre #4 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First aging-as-disease ICD-11 code adoption by major payorpre #3 · pending · 2030-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-04-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-30 — First Big Pharma >$5B acquisition explicitly framed as 'longevity' enters announcedpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — First senolytic candidate hits Phase 3 readoutpre #3 · pending · 2028-01-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-20 — Three or more top-15 pharmas publicly disclose longevity-asset acquisitionspre #1 · pending · 2028-06-30 — FDA grants formal qualified guidance on aging biomarker for clinical trial endpointscascade #1 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-22 — Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-24 — Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei).cascade #5 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureatepre #5 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Eon Systems demonstrates whole-fly multi-behavior emulationpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Eon publishes Nature/bioRxiv paper on fly-brain emulationpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Eon announces mouse-brain connectome target with timelinecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mouse connectome generation funding round announcedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First mouse brain region (e.g., visual cortex) emulated end-to-endpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-16 — First multi-behavior cyber-Drosophila body-brain integration (March 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Eon publishes mouse-brain partial emulation (~70M neurons)pre #2 · pending · 2029-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First peer-reviewed human cortical organoid + connectome integrationcascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First publicly announced commercial 'whole-brain digital twin' servicepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Healthcare humanoid robot market size hits $2.96B in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotic-assisted surgery market crosses $14B globallypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI diagnostic systems (Aidoc, Viz.ai) integrated in >50% of US hospitalspre #3 · pending · 2027-03-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Optimus / humanoid surgery demonstration on cadaver or live procedurecascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Universal access to AI-doctor better than richest-person care NOT achieved by 2028-11-30pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — FDA clearance of AI-as-medical-device for back pain triage or treatmentpre #4 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Major payer covers AI-driven back-pain therapypre #3 · pending · 2028-06-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-30 — Neuralink or competitor BCI receives FDA approval for chronic-pain indicationpre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Population-scale outcomes evidence: AI back-pain interventions show >30% improvement vs SOCpre #6 · pending · 2027-03-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Colossal publishes peer-reviewed paper on novel-trait genetic engineering (beyond ancestral resurrection)pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First woolly mammoth born to Asian elephant surrogatepre #2 · pending · 2029-01-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Colossal or competitor announces first chimeric/de-novo designer creature program (e.g., novel mammal with non-ancestralcascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — First reportable engineering of a 'novel creature' (significantly outside species ancestor) in mammal or birdpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First FDA pivotal approval where Phase 3 control arm is fully replaced by digital twincascade #1 · pending · 2030-05-17 — First sub-indication approved with zero traditional clinical trials (computational + Bayesian only)cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First sovereign government signs paid contract with Colossal for endangered-species genetic rescuepre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Colossal Biovault reaches biobanking milestone (>1000 endangered-species cell lines stored)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Australian government allocates funding for thylacine reintroduction feasibility studypre #3 · pending · 2027-10-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Multi-government consortium model emerges (UN/CITES adjacent) with paid Colossal servicespre #1 · pending · 2028-07-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Colossal's de-extinction portfolio reaches 8+ named species (mammoth, dire wolf, dodo, thylacine, moa, bluebuck, +2)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Colossal publishes first artificial-womb feasibility study for elephant-class embryospre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First mammoth calf born to elephant surrogate (or via artificial womb)pre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Computer-vision-based embryo selection deployed at scale (>1000 embryos screened/year)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Founder publicly reaffirms 2028 mammoth target at major venuepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Sixth de-extinction species (bluebuck) added to portfoliopre #4 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First successful mammoth-edited Asian elephant embryo transferpre #2 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First viable mammoth-trait Asian elephant calf birth (22-month gestation)pre #2 · hit · 2025-01-30 — Khaleesi (third direwolf, female) birth announcementpre #1 · hit · 2025-10-01 — Direwolf pack social-development milestone (1-year birthday update)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Colossal announces new de-extinct species (bluebuck or other)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Colossal announces additional direwolves (4th-onwards)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Woolly mammoth first birth (2028 target tracking)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Engineered PETase enzyme paper (Bhattacharya et al.) published in FEBS Journal — highly active polyester degradationpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — PETase/MHETase variant with gut-compatible pH/temperature window (pH 1-7, 37C) demonstratedpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First published in-vivo (animal model) study of orally-delivered plastic-degrading enzyme on microplastic absorptioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Supplement company / startup announces clinical work toward microplastic-degrading oral productpre #6 · pending · 2027-06-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Breaking publishes preclinical paper or whitepaper on human-body microplastic supplementpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Breaking environmental product (plastic-degrading microbe) hits commercial scale milestonepre #3 · pending · 2028-01-13 — First peer-reviewed human RCT data on a microplastic-clearance interventionpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Breaking launches DTC supplement product or files IND with FDApre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Colossal announces 4th-6th spinout under 'dozen companies' planpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Colossal raises follow-on at ≥$15B valuationpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Form Bio reaches $100M ARR or $1B valuation milestonepre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Breaking (plastic-degradation spinout) commercial pilot launchedpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First Colossal spinout reaches IPO or >=$1B unicorn valuationcascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Colossal spinout count reaches 12 companies (Diamandis claim)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Colossal mammoth embryos ready for elephant surrogate implantation by end of 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — EXTEND artificial womb begins first-in-human clinical trials for premature infantspre #4 · pending · 2027-06-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First woolly mammoth calf born from edited Asian elephant surrogatepre #2 · pending · 2028-07-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-10-01 — Productionized de-extinction species via artificial wombs (event)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Viagen acquisition integration enables productionized cloning pipelinepre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Government MoU or co-funded program announced for endangered-species cloningpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Colossal cloned 4 red wolves announcedpre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Bluebuck de-extinction project announcedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Mexican government CONANP partnership advances vaquita biobankcascade #2 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First mammoth-edited embryo implanted in elephant surrogatepre #5 · pending · 2028-06-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Synthetic biology demonstration of multi-locus designer trait combination (>100 simultaneous edits)pre #3 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First live mammoth birth (or fail) — primary milestone for de-extinction technologypre #2 · pending · 2029-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Major regulatory framework explicitly addresses designer organism creationcascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — First synthetic-genome-derived mammal demonstrating non-natural trait combinationpre #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First successful CRISPR-engineered chytrid-resistant frog line published in peer-reviewed journalpre #5 · pending · 2028-01-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Colossal Foundation or partner publishes Bd-resistance gene multiplex editing protocol in great spotted tree frog or corpre #3 · pending · 2028-11-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First field release of gene-edited chytrid-resistant amphibian population approved by national wildlife regulatorpre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — IUCN Red List downlists at least one chytrid-affected species citing genetic-rescue interventionpre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-12 — Colossal's 'Lamm $5.4T invasive-species' narrative is repeatedly cited by analystspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Colossal-affiliated Tropic Biosciences reports disease-resistant crop deploymentcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Industry analyst sizes the disease-resistant ag-biotech market explicitlycascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Foundation EEHV mRNA vaccine expands to additional zoos/herdscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First publicly traded comp pure-play in disease-resistant biotech announces revenuecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Gene drive screwworm efficiency demonstrated in labpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — USDA south Texas sterile fly facility operational (100M flies/wk)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Regulatory framework for gene drive insect release proposedpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First field/contained release of gene-drive screwwormcascade #2 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Measurable population suppression of screwworm in target zonepre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-30 — Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered specipre #5 · pending · 2026-08-14 — Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mammoth-like elephant cell line crosses 100 simultaneous editspre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mammoth-like Asian elephant embryo producedpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Colossal demonstrates ≥500 simultaneous edits in any cell linecascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Colossal achieves ≥1,000 simultaneous edits across genomecascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.cascade #1 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First peer-reviewed publication applying Colossal's multiplex-edit pipeline to human-disease modelpre #4 · pending · 2028-05-03 — Colossal/spinout signs licensing deal with established biopharma for gene-editing platformpre #3 · pending · 2028-05-03 — Colossal IPO or strategic exit unlocks separate human-therapeutics valuationpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-18 — First IND (Investigational New Drug) filing or pre-IND meeting for Colossal-derived human therapypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Colossal publicly announces 5x prior-largest DNA delivery already achievedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Colossal makes Bluebuck de-extinction breakthrough disclosurepre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Colossal demonstrates DNA delivery in small mammal first as scaling steppre #2 · pending · 2026-07-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Form Bio (Colossal spinout) commercializes large DNA delivery technologycascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Colossal claims 20x prior-largest DNA synthesis delivery by year-end 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Peer review or publication validates Colossal's large-cassette delivery techniquecascade #3 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Astromech reaches first paying customer or major partnership outside Colossalpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Astromech valuation step-up and Series B raisepre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Colossal publishes peer-reviewed paper on its synthetic-biology modeling stackpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Form Bio platform reports cross-pharma adoption metricspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Mammoth/thylacine de-extinction proof-of-concept embryo or birthcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Colossal publishes peer-reviewed paper on hydrogel/microfluidic embryo culture for elephant ARTpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First US fertility clinic adopts microfluidic embryo culture commerciallypre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Colossal commercial spinout for human IVF tech announcedpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — ASRM or ESHRE recognizes new IVF embryo grading scale tied to microfluidic biomarkerspre #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — IUCN formally endorses synthetic-biology assisted-evolution for conservationpre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First gene-edited endangered animal released into wild monitored habitatpre #4 · pending · 2028-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Heat-tolerant coral or amphibian gene-edit deployed at reef/wetland scalepre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Treaty-level framework on environmental release of edited organisms enters forcepre #1 · pending · 2029-04-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-11-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First woolly mammoth birth occurspre #3 · pending · 2028-09-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Regulatory approval secured for first reintroduction sitepre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First de-extincted species pilot release into managed habitatpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Colossal publicly describes gene drive as reversible (rollback feature documented)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Peer-reviewed publication on Colossal's reversible gene drive containment mechanismcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Independent demonstration of rollback in caged trialcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Critical scientific pushback (rebuttal paper questioning rollback feasibility)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Regulatory approval (USDA APHIS / NZ EPA / Australia OGTR) for first wild-release pilotcascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal artificial-womb spinout announcedpre #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Breaking Inc. (plastics microbe spinout) reaches commercial deploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Colossal announces 5th technology spinoutpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Colossal Biosciences announces second sovereign-state Biovault partnership (post-UAE)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Dubai Museum of the Future BioVault facility opens to public visitorspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Colossal banks first 100 of the 10,000-species targetpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Colossal Series D or pre-IPO financing round closes at >=$10B valuationcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Third or more sovereign Biovault site under construction simultaneously (network confirmation)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — First de-extinction or rewilded species sourced from BioVault genetic materialpre #6 · pending · 2026-08-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Dubai facility opens with public-facing living-lab programspre #3 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-01 — First UAE biovault species samples archived (≥1000 specimens)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Colossal expands to second international living-lab sitepre #6 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Synthetic biology total market crosses $50B annual revenuepre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-designed protein / molecule receives first FDA new molecular entity approvalpre #3 · pending · 2028-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-05-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Synthetic biology firm achieves $100B+ market capcascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Synthetic biology revenue equals 1% of US GDP (~$300B/yr)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Carbios Longlaville facility online (50K t/yr PET)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Breaking secures Series A funding ≥$50Mpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Breaking demonstrates pilot-scale facility for ≥1 non-PET plasticpre #2 · pending · 2028-05-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Independent benchmark confirms Breaking enzymes outperform PETase variants on rate/areapre #6 · hit · 2026-04-14 — OpenAI x Novo Nordisk drug-discovery partnership announced (broader pharma platform)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First repurposed off-patent compound from OpenAI program shows positive Alzheimer's biomarker signalpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First OpenAI-Foundation backed Alzheimer's drug candidate enters Phase 1 clinical trialpre #1 · pending · 2029-01-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Spinout/IPO of any AI-pharma company launched from OpenAI Alzheimer's program crosses $10B valuationcascade #2 · pending · 2030-12-31 — First FDA approval of OpenAI-Foundation lineage Alzheimer's drugpre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Arc Institute Virtual Cell Challenge 2026 results show >2x improvement over State baselinepre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — CZI rBio / TranscriptFormer next-gen model published with whole-cell perturbation predictionpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Nvidia or major cloud announces dedicated virtual-cell training compute partnershippre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First peer-reviewed virtual-cell prediction validated wet-lab in independent academic studypre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First FDA-acceptable in-silico virtual-cell experiment cited in IND submissioncascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-16 — Cascade: First drug program with discovery anchor in virtual-cell simulation enters Phase 1cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First E. coli whole-cell model with predictive accuracy on growth/metabolism publishedpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Compute time for 1 hour of cell biology drops from 6 days to <1 daypre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First yeast (S. cerevisiae) whole-cell digital twin publishedcascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-31 — First mammalian (HeLa or hepatocyte) whole-cell simulation reaches publicationcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2028-06-04 — Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-24 — AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First AI-designed drug approved for any neurological indicationpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-10 — For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2025-06-30 — Insilico Medicine Phase IIa positive results (TNIK inhibitor for IPF)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-01 — Industry analyst report confirms 80-90% AI-drug Phase 1 success ratepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First AI-designed drug enters Phase III pivotal trialcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Isomorphic Labs first IsoDDE molecule enters clinical trialscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Arc Institute or CZI Virtual Cell program releases >=10x scaled multimodal cell foundation modelpre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First full-cell multimodal foundation model demonstrates causal-transport prediction across cell types in Nature/Sciencepre #4 · pending · 2028-01-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — AI-designed perturbation prediction reaches AlphaFold-tier benchmark accuracy via classical computepre #2 · pending · 2028-11-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Major pharma signs >=$500M deal predicated on classical-scaled virtual-cell platform without quantum-computing dependencpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First true n=1 personalized drug therapy approvedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — n>=10 documented n=1 AI-designed therapies in patientscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI-designed drug discovery time falls to <12 months consistentlycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — FDA Commissioner Makary departure, replacement, or announced leavepre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — RFK Jr override of FDA decision becomes public or formalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Major FDA reorganization or RIF (reduction in force) announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Congressional hearing or bipartisan letter calls for FDA reformcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Pharma industry lobbying for FDA leadership change escalates publiclycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Inaugural Enhanced Games scheduled for May 21-24, 2026 Las Vegaspre #5 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Gkolomeev posts unofficial 50m freestyle world record (20.89s) in Enhanced trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced Games inaugural competition delivered without major safety incidentcascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced 2026 produces >=2 records faster than current official world recordscascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Enhanced Games announces second edition with year-over-year mark improvementscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of Neuralink human implants reaches 50+cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink launches high-volume production with automated surgery in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink Blindsight first patient trial begins (non-destructive read/write to cortex)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First whole-brain emulation / connectome scan published from preserved tissuecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla Optimus 3 begins production at Fremont (summer 2026)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First peer-reviewed paper on multi-modal embodied 'general' robot intelligencecascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Genetic-engineering policy debate around human germline editing intensifiespre #6 · hit · 2025-01-07 — FDA proposes 7-step credibility assessment framework for AI modelspre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2025-10-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Industry critical reviews of FDA draft published (peer-reviewed)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-02-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — FDA finalizes AI drug-submission guidance by Q2 2026 (per agency timeline)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Materially advanced revised draft published if not finalizedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First AI-supported drug NDA approved using credibility frameworkpre #5 · overdue · 2025-09-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-28 — ISM8969 FDA IND clearancepre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First patient dosed in Isomorphic Phase 1 oncology trialcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Peer AI-designed drugs (Insilico, Recursion, BenevolentAI) report Phase 1 progresscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Phase 1 dose escalation (first dose level) completioncascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Initial Phase 1 readout (top-line efficacy / safety)pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-04 — Colossal Biosciences confirms 2028 woolly mammoth birth target (Mar 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Asian elephant ovum retrieval / IVF protocol validated (peer-reviewed publication)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Colossal announces edited-elephant-cell line with full mammoth gene-edit suite ready for embryo creationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — First mammoth-edit embryo created in vitro (lab-stage milestone)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — First embryo transferred into elephant surrogate by end-2027 (prediction direct event)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-10-04 — Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028pre #6 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Successful pregnancy confirmed via ultrasound at >=4 months post-transferpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Backup ET into 2nd or 3rd surrogate completed (redundancy strategy)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Thylacine scientific-progress milestone announcement (per Colossal commitment 'before end of year')pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Bluebuck embryo creation + roan-surrogate transfer (resolution criterion satisfaction)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Either Bluebuck OR Thylacine reaches active embryo-transfer pipeline before window closecascade #1 · pending · 2029-05-02 — Live Bluebuck calf born — full de-extinction success (cascade beyond pack window)pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — DARPA / BARDA / NIH multi-year synbio biomanufacturing program >$1B announcedpre #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — AI-designed enzyme commercially licensed to Top-20 pharma or specialty chemical co.pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First cell-programmed industrial product passes $100M annual revenuepre #3 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Cell-programmed environmental biosensor deployed at city-scalepre #1 · pending · 2029-02-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Sub-cent solar PPA signed in any utility-scale US bid roundpre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Synthetic biology / bioprocessing market crosses $50B annual revenuepre #2 · pending · 2028-12-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — LanzaTech reaches 30,000 metric ton/year commercial-scale protein productioncascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-15 — Cascade: first gigaton-scale bio-industrial production milestone (>=1Gt CO2-equivalent feedstock processed)pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Form Bio platform expands to handle Tasmanian tiger and dodo de-extinction pipelinespre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First viable woolly mammoth embryo announcement (Asian elephant surrogate)pre #4 · pending · 2029-12-31 — First live-born woolly mammoth calf (or formal program failure announcement)pre #3 · pending · 2031-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2031-03-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2031-04-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2025-08-15 — Varda Series C ($187M) closes — capital for commercial scalepre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Varda W-4 mission in orbit; W-5 expected before end of yearpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Varda begins biologics (monoclonal antibody) crystallization programcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — First commercial pharma drug returned from microgravity demonstrably superiorcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FDA / partner announces clinical pathway for orbital-manufactured pharmapre #6 · hit · 2026-01-12 — NVIDIA + Eli Lilly announce $1B AI co-innovation lab on BioNeMo platformpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-16 — Roche launches NVIDIA-powered AI factory for therapeutics developmentpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — ≥200 AI-discovered drug programs in clinical developmentpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First BioNeMo / Evo 2-designed therapeutic enters Phase 1 human trialpre #1 · pending · 2028-02-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — ≥1 BioNeMo-designed drug receives FDA breakthrough/fast-track designationpre #6 · pending · 2026-12-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Rentosertib or other AI-designed drug reads out positive Phase III resultpre #4 · pending · 2027-11-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Biotech sector forward P/E or median EV/Revenue rerates above 5y average per XBI/Bloombergpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Gene-editing TAM expansion: first cardiovascular-prevention gene therapy enters Phase IIIpre #1 · pending · 2028-11-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
66 plotted · 16 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.