Timeline Fan

88 of 88 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior.

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IBM 79 CRWV 72 GOOGL 71 AMZN 46 NVDA 45 MSFT 44 META 42 NBIS 42 ORCL 42 ACN 40 CHGG 40 VERV 38 AI 37 BABA 37

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

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Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

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Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

88 plotted · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.

IBM-impacting (4)

235_030

ACN · AI · AMZN · BABA

Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.

75% → 39% · resolves 2033-09

-36pp

247_035

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade

70% → 39% · resolves 2030-06

-31pp

238_044

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems

50% → 32% · resolves 2026-11

-18pp

245_009

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption

60% → 45% · resolves 2027-09

-15pp

Other / no ticker (1)

IND_003

Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph...

75% → 46% · resolves 2026-11

-29pp

GOOGL-impacting (4)

245_024

ABCL · ABSI · ABT · AZN

Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)

50% → 24% · resolves 2029-11

-26pp

COD_BIO_001

GOOGL · LLY · NVS · SDGR

FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026

70% → 47% · resolves 2026-12

-23pp

235_027

ABCL · ABSI · ABT · AZN

Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026.

65% → 46% · resolves 2026-09

-19pp

IND_010

ABCL · ABSI · ABT · ALL

Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...

55% → 43% · resolves 2026-09

-12pp

DNA-impacting (2)

COD_BIO_004

DNA · TWST

Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028

32% → 12% · resolves 2028-12

-20pp

COD_BIO_003

DNA · TWST

Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027

35% → 20% · resolves 2027-12

-15pp

VERV-impacting (1)

IND_005

AZN · BEAM · CRSP · DNA

Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~...

45% → 33% · resolves 2031-06

-12pp

AMZN-impacting (2)

229_008

ABBNY · ALNT · AMZN · BYDDY

By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).

55% → 44% · resolves 2026-09

-11pp

248_045

ABBNY · ALNT · AMZN · BYDDY

Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens.

50% → 39% · resolves 2026-06

-11pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.