Bayesian Cockpit
Static priors from Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL, evolved daily via the Phase 4 Bayesian + reference-class blend + LBP stack. — Filtered view (2 of 1607 predictions)
Filters
URL params scope the prediction-level queries below
Domain
Status
Predictions
2
Thesis killers
15
Edges
12.2K
avg 7.3 per node
Tickers
645
38.0K links
Predictors
104
Milestones
303
from Sheet 17
Validations
279
non-pending
Reference classes
19
Embedded
1.5K/17
768-dim bge-base vectors
Biggest moves (last 7 days)
Top 10 absolute |Δ| from latest prob_history per node. 30 nodes moved. 29 metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2 milestone miss
| Source | Node | Title | Predictor | Δ | Now | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 248_019 | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synch | Alex Wissner-Gross | -35.5pp | 11.9% | 2026-06-05 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 248_037 | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital co | Alex Wissner-Gross | -27.2pp | 10.2% | 2026-06-05 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 229_030 | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a b | Brett Adcock | -20.6pp | 17.1% | 2026-06-04 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | AI_002 | Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of gen | Dario Amodei | -17.4pp | 16.3% | 2026-05-31 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 229_020 | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen hom | Brett Adcock | -14.8pp | 20.4% | 2026-06-04 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 246_007 | SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. | Peter Diamandis | -14.7pp | 35.1% | 2026-06-05 |
| milestone miss | 235_016 | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026) | Peter Diamandis | -14.2pp | 31.2% | 2026-05-31 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 237_026 | The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep pickin | Peter Diamandis | -14.2pp | 31.2% | 2026-06-05 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 246_012 | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/dockin | Peter Diamandis | -14.1pp | 30.5% | 2026-06-05 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 238_003 | Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous po | Peter Diamandis | -13.0pp | 25.0% | 2026-06-05 |
Validation status
Across 1,607 predictions
| Status | Count | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| pending | 2 | 100.0% |
Domains
Top 10 by prediction count
| Domain | Count | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Robotics | 39 | 1950.0% |
| AI | 5 | 250.0% |
| Geopolitics | 2 | 100.0% |
| Space | 1 | 50.0% |
| Markets/Stocks | 1 | 50.0% |
| Auto/Transport | 1 | 50.0% |
| Biotech/Longevity | 1 | 50.0% |
| Other | 1 | 50.0% |
Top predictors
By predictions imported (full scorecard at /predictors)
| Predictor | Archetype | Total | In window | Avg conv | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wissner-Gross | Generalist | 231 | 169 | 3.5 | Pending |
| Dave Blundin | AGI-Accelerationist | 165 | 135 | 3.7 | Pending |
| Peter Diamandis | AGI-Accelerationist | 160 | 128 | 3.7 | Pending |
| Dara Khosrowshahi | AGI-Accelerationist | 89 | 38 | 3.8 | Pending |
| Elon Musk | AGI-Accelerationist | 69 | 42 | 3.9 | Pending |
| Eric Schmidt | AGI-Accelerationist | 68 | 63 | 3.9 | Pending |
| Brett Adcock | Specialist (humanoids) | 51 | 29 | 3.9 | Pending |
| Salim Ismail | Macro-Strategist | 49 | 38 | 3.6 | Pending |
| Ben Lamm | AGI-Accelerationist | 47 | 16 | 3.7 | Pending |
| Morgan Stanley | Generalist | 42 | 36 | 4.4 | Pending |
Top beneficiary tickers
pure_play + multi_vector roles
| Ticker | Company | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com | 1.0K |
| GOOGL | Alphabet (Google) | 1.0K |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 943 |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 891 |
| META | Meta Platforms | 882 |
| ORCL | Oracle | 830 |
| CRWV | CoreWeave | 758 |
| APLD | Applied Digital | 693 |
| SFTBY | SoftBank Group | 688 |
| GTLB | GitLab | 555 |
Top adverse tickers
Direct displaced
| Ticker | Company | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| ACN | — | 740 |
| IBM | IBM | 738 |
| CHGG | Chegg | 728 |
| WNS | — | 672 |
| INFY | — | 445 |
| CTSH | — | 444 |
| GEN | — | 284 |
| LRN | Stride | 284 |
| MAN | — | 113 |
| ALL | Allstate | 107 |
Thesis killers
15 scenarios that invalidate prediction classes — ranked by user-assigned probability
| ID | Scenario | Probability | Time window | Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 2026-2029 | 396 |
| TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 2026-2028 | 374 |
| TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 2026-2027 | 139 |
| TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 2026-2028 | 89 |
| TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 2026-2029 | 736 |
| TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | 18.0% | 2027-2030 | 116 |
| TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 2026-2027 | 795 |
| TK13 | Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | 15.0% | 2026-2030 | 31 |
| TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | 12.0% | 2026-2028 | 108 |
| TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 2026-2030 | 387 |
| TK10 | $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | 12.0% | 2027-2031 | 99 |
| TK11 | Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | 10.0% | 2026-2028 | 129 |
| TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 2026-2028 | 765 |
| TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 2026-2030 | 218 |
| TK12 | Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | 8.0% | 2026-2028 | 45 |