Predictions
21 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 231_037 | Space | SpaceX | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 248_001 | Space | SpaceX | Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual sate… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 234_029 | Space | orbital-AI | Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_045 | Space | orbital-AI | Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physic… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 234_049 | Space | humanoids | First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot con… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_009 | Space | orbital-AI | We will have multiple Dyson swarms | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 242_041 | Space | AI-timing | United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 246_014 | Space | orbital-AI | Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_019 | Space | AI-timing | Interstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying u… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 246_054 | Space | SpaceX | Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 248_019 | Space | orbital-AI | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 232_037 | Space | AI-timing | Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2032-10-31 |
| 242_038 | Space | SpaceX | Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 242_051 | Space | orbital-AI | Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 248_002 | Space | AI-timing | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial network… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 230_016 | Space | orbital-AI | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 92.0% | in_progress | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_032 | Space | orbital-AI | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 232_048 | Space | AI-timing | Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2034-06-01 – 2034-06-30 |
| 232_038 | Space | $100T | Lunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2035-06-01 – 2035-06-30 |
| 232_049 | Space | orbital-AI | Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2040-06-01 – 2040-06-30 |
| 235_040 | Space | orbital-AI | Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless o… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2070-06-01 – 2070-06-30 |