Predictions

15 of 1,621 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.

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Window (earliest)Window (latest)Prior (high)Prior (low)Conviction (high)ID
IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
230_009Macro/EconomyeconomyUS GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.Elon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31
240_042Macro/EconomyeconomyEconomy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number)Elon Musk4/5A60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2036-12-31
CMQ_054Macro/Economyabundance-thesisHumanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a…Elon Musk5/5A20.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2035-12-31
236_001Macro/EconomyAGIUniversal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslyElon Musk3/5B50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31
239_018Macro/EconomyAGIUniversal High Income will be implementedElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31
239_019Macro/EconomyAGIDeflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growthElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31
239_021Macro/EconomyAGIMoney will stop being relevant at some pointElon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31
239_023Macro/EconomyAGIAI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcyElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31
239_030Macro/Economyeconomy1000x current economy would saturate human desiresElon Musk3/5B50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31
240_040Macro/EconomyeconomyElon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desireElon Musk3/5B50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
232_025Macro/EconomyAGIMassive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.Elon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
239_027Macro/EconomyeconomyDiamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearsElon Musk3/5B50.0%pending2031-01-01 – 2031-12-31
239_001Macro/EconomyeconomyGlobal economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsElon Musk4/5A60.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31
246_003Macro/EconomyeconomyGlobal economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).Elon Musk3/5B55.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31
248_009Macro/EconomyeconomyElon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.Elon Musk3/5B55.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31