Predictions
30 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI_009 | AI | trillion-dollar-cluster-ladder | Silicon Valley boardroom compute-cluster conversations have escalated rapidly… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2029-08-31 |
| AUT_028 | AI | trillion-dollar-cluster-progression | Corporate boardroom plans will rapidly shift from $10 billion to $100 billion… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_014 | AI | agent-native-infrastructure | A new 'Agent-Native Infrastructure' category emerges — legacy digital infrast… | Marc Andreessen | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| AUT_001 | AI | HIM-5-agent-autonomous-org | The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-ag… | Alex Finn | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AUT_002 | AI | unified-mathematical-substrate | Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unif… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| AUT_010 | AI | alignment-catastrophic-failure | As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executor… | Daniella Amodei | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| AUT_014 | AI | open-source-autonomous-proliferation | Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary … | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| AUT_016 | AI | Rubin-Alpamayo-Mercedes-2026 | NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AUT_021 | AI | multimodal-data-entropy-bottleneck | Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms sp… | Marc Andreessen | 5/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| CMQ_057 | AI | democratization | Democratization of sophisticated AI tools means any 'kid in a basement' can n… | Mark Cuban | 4/5 | B | 85.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| CMQ_059 | AI | local-compute-drivers | Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost cont… | Alex Finn | 4/5 | B | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CYB_004 | AI | AAIF-interoperability-standards | The Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF) under the Linux Foundation — backed by Dorse… | Jack Dorsey | 4/5 | C | 58.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-09-30 |
| CYB_005 | AI | memory-becomes-moat | 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' … | Ray Kurzweil | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| CYB_012 | AI | recommendation-poisoning | 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, trainin… | Alex Finn | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-08-31 |
| CYB_022 | AI | LiteLLM-supply-chain-vulnerability | Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exem… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| FUT_004 | AI | Large-Action-Models-displace-LLMs | Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 202… | Amy Webb | 5/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| INF_026 | AI | software-3.0-utility | 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requir… | Andrej Karpathy | 4/5 | B | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_043 | AI | intelligence-deflation | Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driv… | Marc Andreessen | 5/5 | B | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| ROB_003 | AI | science-25-in-5-years | AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery … | Kevin Weil | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| SPC_017 | AI | multimodal-data-entropy | Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pip… | Jennifer Li | 3/5 | C | 70.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| SPC_022 | AI | AI-science-2026 | '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering'… | Kevin Weil | 5/5 | B | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| SPC_027 | AI | trillion-dollar-agent-economy | A 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence —… | Alex Finn | 5/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 246_029 | AI | AI-scaling | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| FUT_001 | AI | LLM-human-forecasting-parity-Nov-2026 | Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite … | Superforecaster Community | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-11-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| AI_029 | AI | blockchain-provenance-deepfakes | Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise wo… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| CYB_006 | AI | self-writing-memory-agents | When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own … | Kevin Weil | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 247_055 | AI | AI-scaling | Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will becom… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 241_007 | AI | AI-timing | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | San Francisco AI community | 4/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 241_043 | AI | AGI | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| FUT_002 | AI | AGI-2029-2031-Metaculus-consensus | Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over … | Superforecaster Community | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | in_progress | 2029-01-01 – 2031-08-31 |