Bayesian Cockpit
Static priors from Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL, evolved daily via the Phase 4 Bayesian + reference-class blend + LBP stack. — Filtered view (0 of 1622 predictions)
Filters
URL params scope the prediction-level queries below
Predictions
0
Thesis killers
15
Edges
12.2K
avg 7.3 per node
Tickers
645
38.0K links
Predictors
104
Milestones
303
from Sheet 17
Validations
279
non-pending
Reference classes
19
Embedded
1.5K/15
768-dim bge-base vectors
Biggest moves (last 7 days)
Top 10 absolute |Δ| from latest prob_history per node. 43 nodes moved. 37 metadata_milestone_miss_sweep6 resolution_terminal
| Source | Node | Title | Predictor | Δ | Now | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| resolution_terminal | 235_016 | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026) | Peter Diamandis | +68.8pp | 100.0% | 2026-06-08 |
| resolution_terminal | 229_033 | Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 sta | Brett Adcock | +59.6pp | 100.0% | 2026-06-08 |
| resolution_terminal | CMQ_031 | AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is o | Alex Wissner-Gross | +57.9pp | 100.0% | 2026-06-08 |
| resolution_terminal | SPC_005 | AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will scale from $70.9M full-year 2025 revenue ( | Morgan Stanley | +44.3pp | 100.0% | 2026-06-08 |
| resolution_terminal | CMQ_062 | Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with in | Alex Wissner-Gross | +38.5pp | 100.0% | 2026-06-08 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 248_019 | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synch | Alex Wissner-Gross | -35.5pp | 11.9% | 2026-06-05 |
| resolution_terminal | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US g | Jensen Huang | +33.7pp | 100.0% | 2026-06-08 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 248_037 | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital co | Alex Wissner-Gross | -27.2pp | 10.2% | 2026-06-05 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 229_030 | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a b | Brett Adcock | -20.6pp | 17.1% | 2026-06-04 |
| metadata_milestone_miss_sweep | 229_020 | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen hom | Brett Adcock | -14.8pp | 20.4% | 2026-06-04 |
Validation status
Across 1,622 predictions
| Status | Count | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| No data | ||
Domains
Top 10 by prediction count
| Domain | Count | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| AI | 5 | Infinity% |
| AI/Compute | 1 | Infinity% |
| Quantum | 1 | Infinity% |
| Robotics | 1 | Infinity% |
Top predictors
By predictions imported (full scorecard at /predictors)
| Predictor | Archetype | Total | In window | Avg conv | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wissner-Gross | Generalist | 231 | 169 | 3.5 | Pending |
| Dave Blundin | AGI-Accelerationist | 165 | 135 | 3.7 | Pending |
| Peter Diamandis | AGI-Accelerationist | 160 | 128 | 3.7 | Pending |
| Dara Khosrowshahi | AGI-Accelerationist | 89 | 38 | 3.8 | Pending |
| Elon Musk | AGI-Accelerationist | 69 | 42 | 3.9 | Pending |
| Eric Schmidt | AGI-Accelerationist | 68 | 63 | 3.9 | Pending |
| Brett Adcock | Specialist (humanoids) | 51 | 29 | 3.9 | Pending |
| Salim Ismail | Macro-Strategist | 49 | 38 | 3.6 | Pending |
| Ben Lamm | AGI-Accelerationist | 47 | 16 | 3.7 | Pending |
| Morgan Stanley | Generalist | 42 | 36 | 4.4 | Pending |
Top beneficiary tickers
pure_play + multi_vector roles
| Ticker | Company | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com | 1.0K |
| GOOGL | Alphabet (Google) | 1.0K |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 943 |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 891 |
| META | Meta Platforms | 882 |
| ORCL | Oracle | 830 |
| CRWV | CoreWeave | 758 |
| APLD | Applied Digital | 693 |
| SFTBY | SoftBank Group | 688 |
| GTLB | GitLab | 555 |
Top adverse tickers
Direct displaced
| Ticker | Company | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| ACN | — | 740 |
| IBM | IBM | 738 |
| CHGG | Chegg | 728 |
| WNS | — | 672 |
| INFY | — | 445 |
| CTSH | — | 444 |
| GEN | — | 284 |
| LRN | Stride | 284 |
| MAN | — | 113 |
| ALL | Allstate | 107 |
Thesis killers
15 scenarios that invalidate prediction classes — ranked by user-assigned probability
| ID | Scenario | Probability | Time window | Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 2026-2029 | 396 |
| TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 2026-2028 | 374 |
| TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 2026-2027 | 139 |
| TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 2026-2028 | 89 |
| TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 2026-2029 | 736 |
| TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | 18.0% | 2027-2030 | 116 |
| TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 2026-2027 | 795 |
| TK13 | Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | 15.0% | 2026-2030 | 31 |
| TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | 12.0% | 2026-2028 | 108 |
| TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 2026-2030 | 387 |
| TK10 | $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | 12.0% | 2027-2031 | 99 |
| TK11 | Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | 10.0% | 2026-2028 | 129 |
| TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 2026-2028 | 765 |
| TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 2026-2030 | 218 |
| TK12 | Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | 8.0% | 2026-2028 | 45 |