Predictions

13 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.

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IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
CMQ_032Macro/Economycost-of-intelligenceExponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bott…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5A75.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31
236_036Macro/EconomyeconomyHyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economyAlex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
238_056Macro/EconomyjobsCapital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for…Alex Wissner-Gross2/5C40.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
242_056Macro/EconomyAI-scalingAI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5B30.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
247_017Macro/EconomyAI-timingSome form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventuallyAlex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
247_019Macro/EconomyAI-timingAI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for n…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
230_035Macro/EconomyeconomyGDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-01-01 – 2033-12-31
230_045Macro/EconomyAI-scalingGDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
231_040Macro/EconomyeconomyIreland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime …Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
232_059Macro/EconomyAGIUniversal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on …Alex Wissner-Gross2/5C40.0%pending2031-06-01 – 2031-06-30
IND_024Macro/EconomySolve-Everything-2035-abundanceAttainment of total material abundance by 2035 driven by AI-optimized physica…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5C15.0%pending2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31
232_024Macro/EconomyAI-timingSan Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if tr…Alex Wissner-Gross2/5C40.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31
238_057Macro/EconomyabundanceLaws of economics and thermodynamics will still apply despite AI abundanceAlex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending— – —