Predictions

12 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.

Filters

Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Status
Allmiss (3)pending (1312)partial (35)in_progress (182)hit (75)
Predictor
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)
Sort
Window (earliest)Window (latest)Prior (high)Prior (low)Conviction (high)ID
IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
236_036Macro/EconomyeconomyHyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economyAlex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
238_056Macro/EconomyjobsCapital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for…Alex Wissner-Gross2/5C40.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
242_056Macro/EconomyAI-scalingAI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5B30.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
247_017Macro/EconomyAI-timingSome form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventuallyAlex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
247_019Macro/EconomyAI-timingAI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for n…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
230_035Macro/EconomyeconomyGDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-01-01 – 2033-12-31
230_045Macro/EconomyAI-scalingGDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
231_040Macro/EconomyeconomyIreland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime …Alex Wissner-Gross3/5C45.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
232_059Macro/EconomyAGIUniversal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on …Alex Wissner-Gross2/5C40.0%pending2031-06-01 – 2031-06-30
IND_024Macro/EconomySolve-Everything-2035-abundanceAttainment of total material abundance by 2035 driven by AI-optimized physica…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5C15.0%pending2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31
232_024Macro/EconomyAI-timingSan Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if tr…Alex Wissner-Gross2/5C40.0%pending2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31
238_057Macro/EconomyabundanceLaws of economics and thermodynamics will still apply despite AI abundanceAlex Wissner-Gross4/5B50.0%pending— – —