Predictions
1,316 of 1,611 predictions match — page 5 of 27. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMQ_009 | AI | AGI-realism | Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is '… | Demis Hassabis | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| CMQ_010 | AI | AGI-definition | True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class … | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| CMQ_011 | AI | AI-alignment | AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEF… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| CMQ_019 | Geopolitics | AI-safety-governance | Physical intervention (literally unplugging data centers) may be required onc… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| CMQ_020 | Macro/Economy | AI-capex | Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow throug… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_022 | AI | superintelligence | AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw c… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| CMQ_033 | Semis/Memory | HBM-demand | Global HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute crit… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 82.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_035 | Semis/Memory | HBM4-complexity | HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yie… | Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 75.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| CMQ_037 | Semis/Memory | Samsung-share | Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majorit… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_039 | Semis/Packaging | TSMC-CoWoS | TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafer… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_044 | AI/Compute | CPU-GPU-ratio | Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require … | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| CMQ_045 | Semis | CPU-TAM-expansion | Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, pot… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_046 | Semis/Memory | agentic-DRAM | Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 1… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_047 | AI | autonomous-agents | Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on comple… | Andrej Karpathy | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| CMQ_048 | Labor/Jobs | call-center-displacement | Agentic AI will fully replace Level 1 customer support call centers globally … | Jason Calacanis / David Sacks | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| CMQ_049 | AI/Markets | platform-monopoly | Traditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platfo… | Jason Calacanis | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| CMQ_052 | Robotics | humanoid-economics | Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/mon… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | A | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| CMQ_054 | Macro/Economy | abundance-thesis | Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| CMQ_063 | Quantum/AI | quantum-AI-integration | Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-scie… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| COD_ROB_003 | Robotics | humanoid-deployment | At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end … | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 58.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| COD_SPC_003 | Space | Starship-orbital-refueling | SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant… | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CYB_028 | Markets/Stocks | AI-dot-com-bubble-parallel | The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-199… | Mark Cuban | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| FUT_006 | Macro/Economy | strategic-creative-destruction | Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deli… | Amy Webb | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| FUT_008 | Geopolitics | China-terminal-decline-2036 | China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 1… | Peter Zeihan | 5/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| FUT_017 | Media/Ads | hyper-adaptable-near-future-planning | Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizat… | Gerd Leonhard | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| FUT_019 | Biotech/Longevity | bio-industrial-circumvention-synthesis | Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured s… | Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-06-30 |
| FUT_021 | AI | physical-friction-governor-on-ASI | Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted ph… | Superforecaster Community | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| IND_002 | Education | orchestration-over-execution-curriculum | Educational systems must pivot from teaching skill acquisition and execution … | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-05-31 |
| IND_007 | Labor/Jobs | corporate-collapse-2026-buzzard-human | Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| IND_008 | Biotech/Longevity | biological-freedom-country-of-geniuses | 2026 era characterized as building a 'country of geniuses in a datacenter' — … | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-09-30 |
| IND_015 | Macro/Economy | economic-inversion-AI-CEO-billionaire | Integration of open agentic systems drives near-term 'economic inversion' — a… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| IND_016 | Space | five-uncrewed-Starships-Mars-2026 | By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Stars… | Gwynne Shotwell | 5/5 | A | 12.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| IND_017 | Macro/Economy | AI-CEO-billionaire-Agentic-Era-50T | Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 22.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| IND_018 | Crypto | techno-feudalism-AI-state-alliance | Imminent rise of 'techno-feudalism' — hidden inextricable alliance between Ar… | Michael Saylor | 5/5 | B | 28.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| IND_020 | Biotech/Longevity | De-Novo-moment-gene-editing-100x | Massive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| IND_025 | Macro/Economy | Ismail-Agentic-Era-2027-ExO | Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates kn… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| IND_027 | Labor/Jobs | reasoning-boom-20-80-human-AI-split | Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a … | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 42.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| INF_003 | Macro/Economy | AI-infrastructure-buildout | The global AI infrastructure buildout is in its earliest phase — only a few h… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| INF_009 | AI | organoid-computing | The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_012 | Energy | AI-power-additions | AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually t… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_014 | Energy | DC-carbon-emissions | Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively th… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| INF_023 | Robotics | automated-construction | Data-center physical shells will be increasingly erected by 3D-printing and r… | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| INF_027 | Biotech/Longevity | drug-timeline-compression | AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-developmen… | Demis Hassabis | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-06-30 |
| INF_047 | Macro/Economy | US-GDP-forecast-2026 | 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily b… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| INF_068 | Crypto | bitcoin-nation-state-buying-2026 | 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulatio… | Michael Saylor | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| ROB_007 | Robotics | Physical-AI-50T-opportunity | The technology sector is crossing a $1 trillion computing inflection point tr… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 48.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-09-30 |
| ROB_009 | Robotics | Optimus-30K-retail-2026 | External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,00… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| ROB_011 | Space | Optimus-Mars-2026 | An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomo… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 8.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| ROB_014 | Labor/Jobs | Yang-40M-jobs-bloodbath | White-collar 'bloodbath' could displace up to 40 million US jobs — leading ed… | Andrew Yang | 5/5 | B | 32.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| SEM_001 | AI/Compute | AI-scaling | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'anothe… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |