AAON

Ssupersededepcrecommended 2026-05-04 · source §7.1

Research-mode rules

Research status	considering
Analysis batch	2026-05-04-launch

Instrument & sizing

Instrument type	leaps_call
Strike	$115
Expiration	2027-01-15
Polygon symbol	`O:AAON270115C00115000`
Recommended quantity	3.363
Recommended dollar amount	$3,000
Recommended entry price	$8.92
Spot at recommendation	$90.87
OTM%	26.5%
IV at recommendation	0.59
Delta at recommendation	0.43

Thesis summary

BASX data-center backlog +141% YoY to $1.30B (71% of total). 4 tweets/day = lowest signal in entire universe. 18-20% revenue growth guide. Q4 BASX +138.8%. Capacity doubled at new 787,000 sqft Memphis facility.

Linked predictions (3)

Prediction	Role	P (current)	P (prior)	Window	Status
Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. INF_011 · Macro/Economy	primary_thesis	0.923	0.880	2026-12-31	in_progress
US electricity production must grow by 'tens of percent' by end of decade to support hundreds of millions of frontier-AI GPUs. CMQ_017 · Energy	supporting	0.519	0.750	2026-11-30	in_progress
Equinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments designed for high-density power-hungry AI workloads — slated to be fully operational by 2026. INF_034 · Real Estate	supporting	0.539	0.800	2026-12-31	in_progress

Upcoming catalysts (1 of 1)

Date	Type	Description	Expected impact	Status
2027-01-15	expiration	AAON option expiration	volatility_only	upcoming

Update history (1)

Most recent first.

Updated at	Type	Source	Drift / shift
2026-05-05 22:11Z	price_refresh	cron	spot +3.1%thesis Δ-3.4pp

Actions

Recommendation is superseded; further actions handled via the position detail page.

Status: superseded