Timeline Fan

43 of 43 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Census Bureau or Brookings 2026 report on rural-population growth from net-migrationpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Starlink residential subscriber base crosses 10Mpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla FSD V14 unsupervised certification in 5+ states / national rolloutpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Office vacancy / urban CRE distress remains >20% in major US metroscascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Confirmed reversal: rural growth + urban decline visible in 2027 census revisionscascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First US state or major economy passes UBI bill above $500/monthpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AI-driven white-collar layoffs accelerate in BLS / Challenger reportscascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Large-scale labor unrest event (>10,000 participants) tied to AI displacementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Federal pilot program or executive order on automation transition assistancecascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — OECD-wide social-insurance reform debate accelerates beyond 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-27 — ICLR 2026 Workshop on AI with Recursive Self-Improvement convened in Rio (community legitimization)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — AlphaEvolve-class system autonomously discovers novel SOTA algorithm in published paperpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (publicly demonstrated or deployed)pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab "effective workforce" disclosure shows >10x ratio of AI agents to human researcherscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI public claim of "fully automated AI research" pipelinecascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Musk publicly affirms hard takeoff thesis at Abundance Summit 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-lab leader publicly endorses recursive self-improvement timeline by mid-2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Per-week breakthrough cadence visible in independent metricscascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly disclosed AI system that materially designs its successor model architecturecascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Hard-takeoff thesis enters mainstream macro discoursecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-02-22 — Sam Altman publicly states AGI 'feels close' or equivalentpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI declares 'AI research intern' capability internally achievedpre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model exceeds human PhD-expert performance on FrontierMath benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI system surpasses median-IQ humans across composite benchmarks (>=120 IQ-equivalent)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent expert panel declares one major capability domain 'incomprehensibly' beyond top humanpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered longevity candidate enters Phase I clinical trialpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Isomorphic Labs / Insilico Medicine announces AI-designed clinical candidatepre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI lab claims demonstrable solution to a major scientific problem (publicly verified)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First country approves AI-designed gene therapy or longevity interventionpre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Optimus V3 prototype publicly revealed by Teslapre #4 · pending · 2026-06-19 — Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Musk delays or pushes back production timeline (risk milestone)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Tesla AI5 chip (with ~5x memory bandwidth vs Gen 2) integrated into Optimus 3cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Optimus 3 production line begins low-rate manufacturing at Fremont factorycascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Initial 2026 production volume reaches several hundred units (S-curve start)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #5 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-17 — Tesla reveals Optimus Gen 3 hand patents (50 actuators, 22 DoF/hand)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Tesla Optimus V3 official reveal event late July / early August 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Tesla Optimus V3 begins formal production at Fremontcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Optimus V3 Tesla AI5 chip integrated with Grok / xAI co-processingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Tesla Optimus Gen 4 announced (2027 yearly cadence test)cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 update confirms 5.2M sq ft Optimus expansion at Giga Texaspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Geopier foundation work begins at Giga Texas Optimus sitepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Low-volume Optimus output begins from Austin facilitypre #1 · pending · 2026-09-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Major structural work completed by end of 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Tesla Optimus reaches 1M unit annualized run-ratepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla repurposes Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus productionpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Optimus units perform measurable factory tasks at Tesla plantspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Tesla output per employee grows ≥30% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Tesla's labor productivity outpaces auto-industry peers by ≥2xcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-03 — Tesla Texas factory reduces headcount 22% in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Tesla cuts >14,000 roles globally in 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Tesla Q2 2026 hiring announcement materializescascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus production drives >2,000 manufacturing hirescascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybercab/Robotaxi launch reduces ICE workforce furthercascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Tesla Optimus 3 enters productioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — US CPI core inflation drops below 2% YoYcascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Goods-price PPI declines YoY for >=2 consecutive quarterscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Fed funds rate cut to <2% citing AI productivity disinflationcascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Real GDP growth exceeds 5% sustained 4 quarterscascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Anthropic CEO restates AGI 2026-2027 timeline at major venuepre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Frontier model achieves novel scientific insight (Altman 2026 prediction)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — G20 / OECD policy paper acknowledges money/work decoupling scenariocascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Macro indicator: real wage / consumption ratios show AI-era distortioncascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Stanford AI Index / similar tracker reports power/energy as primary AI scaling constraintpre #5 · pending · 2026-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Hyperscaler signs >=1GW nuclear/SMR PPA explicitly framed as 'AI fuel'pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major frontier lab publishes paper framing AI optimization in compute/energy units (vs $)pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI agent autonomously transacts in non-USD compute resource (token-for-compute, GPU-hour swap)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Tokenized compute marketplace (Akash, io.net, Render) hits $1B annualized GMVpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — SpaceX FCC application for million-satellite orbital data-center constellation acknowledged / advancedpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Google CEO restates AI data centers in space target for 2027 with concrete partner / launch slotpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Peer-reviewed Dyson-swarm / photovoltaic-Dyson-sphere paper published, cited in mainstream tech presspre #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Starcloud / orbital compute reaches ≥100kW deployed solar power (sun-energy capture milestone)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative orbital compute power exceeds 1 MW across operatorscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscalers + frontier labs commit >=$1T cumulative AI capex through 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute aggregate exceeds human-brain-equivalent FLOPS across deployed AI fleetpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First permanent off-Earth compute installation (lunar / Starlink-attached) announcedcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starlink-attached compute / SpaceX 'Starcloud' commercial service goes livecascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Aggregate AI inference operations exceed measurable human cognitive operations per daypre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Tesla CEO public statement that money is becoming less relevantpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government formally proposes UBI / AI dividend pilotcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — AI white-collar displacement crosses measurable threshold (BLS or McKinsey data)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Public AI-dividend / token tax legislative proposal in US Congresspre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-uppre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves'cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curvepre #5 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Tesla converts Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus productionpre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Tesla Optimus 3 unveiling at mid-2026 eventcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla Optimus 3 mass production begins Q3 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Optimus 3 vs Figure 03 head-to-head capability comparison publishedcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 2026 Optimus production volume reaches only hundreds of units (vs Tesla 1M target)cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #3 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — SpaceX Starship V3 first flight testpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink V3 deployment using Starship beginscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX achieves 145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Launch-per-hour cadence remains aspirational vs ~1-3 per week realitycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — First Tesla Cybercab production VIN rolls off linepre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Tesla confirms <$30K retail price at production VIN milestonepre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Cybercab mass production ramp at Giga Texas (10-min cycle time)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First public Cybercab delivery / handover to customer or robotaxi fleetcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cascade: Stocktwits/fund-manager prediction of late-2026 delay materializescascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Tesla Cybercab SKU added to Tesla.com configurator with delivery slotspre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk publicly delays Starship Mars launch beyond 2026 transfer windowpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Cumulative orbital propellant transfer of >=100 metric tons demonstrated in single Starship testcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First Starship Block 3 successful flight test (Mars-capable variant)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — November 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window closes without Starship launchcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: SpaceX shifts focus to Artemis 3 lunar mission as primary near-term Starship deploymentcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-05 — Major model release exceeds human OSWorld baseline by clear marginpre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Holo3-35B-A3B leads OSWorld with 82.6%pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Anthropic CEO publicly maintains 2026 AI > most humans timelinepre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — OpenAI articulates 'hundreds of thousands of automated research interns' plancascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Frontier benchmark composite (MMLU/SWE/MATH/OSWorld) exceeds expert humans on 4 of 4cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Cascade: AGI-popular-narrative drives capex acceleration past $700B/yrpre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-26 — CATL launches commercial sodium-ion battery productionpre #5 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-05 — First mass-produced sodium-ion EV unveiled (Changan + CATL)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-28 — QuantumScape Eagle Line opens with QSE-5 cells deliveredpre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Toyota begins solid-state battery productioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Third non-lithium chemistry (LFMP, lithium-sulfur, or zinc-air) commercializespre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 earnings: Fremont line conversion confirmed for late July/Augpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Optimus low-volume production starts at Fremont (summer 2026)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Optimus retail price publicly disclosed at $20-30K per unitcascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First Optimus retail customer / external sales contract announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative external Optimus units sold >=100pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Optimus integration testing on Starship payload mock-upcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX confirms Starship V3 readiness for Mars launch windowcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Optimus reaches Mars surface in 2026 launchcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-01 — Mars launch window opens November 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-16 — If 2026 launch slips, formal target shifts to 2028 transfer windowpre #6 · overdue · 2025-05-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-09-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2025-08-15 — Musk publicly claims Grok 5 has 10% probability of achieving AGIpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — xAI announces Grok 5 with 6T parameters and AGI-class capability claimspre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Frontier capability ceiling visible: GPT-5/Mythos/Gemini 3/Grok 5 cluster on similar benchmarkscascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Independent benchmark (METR / ARC-AGI / FrontierMath) characterizes a 2025-2026 model as superhuman across most professicascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mainstream consensus shifts to AGI/superintelligence post-2026 (2027-2030)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superinttarget window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
30 plotted · 13 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.