Timeline Fan

162 of 162 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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CRWV 323 IBM 253 NBIS 226 CORZ 162 AMZN 159 NVDA 158 CBRS 157 GOOGL 157 ACN 156 APLD 156 CHGG 156 META 156 MSFT 156 ORCL 156

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

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Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

148 plotted · 14 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to NBIS.

NBIS-impacting (4)

248_019

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.

65% → 12% · resolves 2026-06

-53pp

248_037

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.

50% → 10% · resolves 2026-06

-40pp

248_040

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.

92% → 53% · resolves 2026-06

-39pp

230_016

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).

92% → 55% · resolves 2030-06

-37pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.