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1204 of 1204 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-17 — Figure publicly demonstrates a robot performing assembly task on BotQ linepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure announces new funding round or BotQ-specific partnerpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — First Figure robot officially deployed at BotQ in production rolecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ cumulative production count disclosed (≥100 units)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Customer deployment count increases post-BotQ rampcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Figure announces second major US enterprise customerpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 03 commercial deployment with BMW Spartanburg confirmedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Figure 03 unit shipments exceed 1,000 units across customers in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku facilitycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Figure announces enterprise customer order book/backlog detailpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — BMW expansion to Plant Leipzig confirmed live in productionpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure raises a 2026/2027 funding round at >=$50B valuationpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Figure announces second non-automotive Tier-1 customerpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — BotQ facility hits 12,000 unit/yr nameplate capacitycascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Figure announces alternate harmonic-reducer supplier outside Chinapre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Figure publishes US-only manufacturing announcement / supply-chain reshoring milestonecascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — China industrial-robot exports continue +40% YoY while Figure scales US assemblycascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Figure decouples software stack (Helix model) from any China-resident weights/datacascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Figure 03 production scales at BotQ facility with non-China BOM disclosedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First sub-scale humanoid maker shuts down or absorbs into larger playerpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top 3 humanoid players capture >70% of commercial deployment volumepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Chinese humanoid players (Unitree, UBTech, Xiaomi) carve geographic moatpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Industry settles to <=6 global players by 2028 endpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-22 — Figure 03 demonstrates multi-room autonomous tidy-up (toys + cleaning)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Figure publicly demonstrates full-house multi-room autonomous task chaincascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Helix model handles novel multi-floor / staircase navigationcascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Figure 03 deployed to private home pilot customer with daily multi-room workloadcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-02 — Helix 02 demonstrates 4-minute autonomous dishwasher kitchen taskpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Helix 02 deployed in BMW logistics commercial use casecascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Helix 02 home testing in unseen environments demonstratedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Robot-built robot manufacturing line milestone (Figure 03 building Figure 03)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Humanoid robot deployed in another humanoid's manufacturing line (robots-build-robots first instance)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Humanoid manufacturing line where >=20% of assembly steps are performed by other humanoidscascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: First fully-autonomous humanoid-built humanoid (recursive manufacturing)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldcascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour cadence (24x throughput vs January)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100,000 units globallypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Humanoid unit price falls below $30K (SUV-equivalent threshold)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Humanoid robot sector annual revenue crosses $10B (still <0.05% of $50T claim)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-08-31 — Humanoid TAM addressable wages reach $1T annual run-rate (revenue capture stage)pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Google DeepMind ships robotic foundation model with major-OEM partnershippre #5 · pending · 2026-10-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Apple humanoid/tabletop robot product launch announcedpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Microsoft formally enters humanoid robotics (acquisition or platform)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — ≥5 Mag-7 companies have material humanoid exposure by end-2027pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Figure cumulative production crosses 1,000 robotspre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BotQ first-gen line annualized capacity reaches 12,000 robots/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Baku BotQ-2 facility broken ground / construction announcedpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — Cumulative Figure production reaches 100,000 over 4-year horizoncascade #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Millions of robots NOT achieved by 2028-11-30pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — BotQ achieves one-robot-per-hour cadence (24x prior throughput)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ second production line commissioned (push beyond 12K nameplate to 50K)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Figure announces second/Baku/secondary facility for additional capacity beyond Sunnyvalecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Annualized run-rate at BotQ exceeds 30,000 units (≥60% of 50K cap)cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure BotQ scales to ~12,000 robots/year capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-02-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure shifts from 'thousands' to 'tens of thousands' annual productionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First commercial customer reaches 1,000-unit deploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Figure announces second BotQ-style facility / 100K-unit scale-upcascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-31 — Figure reaches 'hundreds of thousands' annual run ratepre #6 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Tesla Optimus reaches sub-$30K production cost (mass scale)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-08-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Total humanoid units shipped globally crosses 100K cumulativecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid robot priced at $10K (low end of prediction range)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BMW / Mercedes / Hyundai / Amazon publicly confirm humanoid replacement of legacy non-humanoid robots in productionpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Mining / construction / agriculture continue specialized non-humanoid robotics scale-up (counter-evidence)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure BotQ ramp + Optimus + Unitree combined annual humanoid output exceeds 200K unitspre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Form-factor consensus narrative shift: Wall Street / IFR / McKinsey adopt 'humanoid-first' defaultcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Humanoid robots become >50% of total annual industrial-robot shipment growthpre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 production rate at 1/hour or highercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure publishes Helix unseen-environment benchmark (zero-shot home tasks)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second customer for Figure beyond BMW (commercial or consumer)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Human intervention rate disclosed at <=1 per day on home taskscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacitypre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First Figure 03 unit ships to non-employee paying alpha customer (home)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Figure publishes home-deployment intervention rate / autonomy benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Figure achieves >=100 home alpha deployments by EOY 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Helix v3 long-horizon planning model deployed enabling multi-step home task executionpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — BotQ commercial-scale manufacturing facility supports alpha unit productionpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Figure begins alpha home test program — robot enters Adcock's residence for end-to-end household workcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Figure publishes early intervention metrics from home alpha (interventions per hour or per task)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Second major industrial customer beyond BMW deploys Figure 03pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Figure announces consumer/home alpha pilot programpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure 03 reaches BotQ 12K/year throughput milestonepre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure demonstrates unsupervised multi-day in-home autonomypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First paying retail customer takes delivery of Figure robot in private homecascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2026-10-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First public consumer (non-partner) home pilot deployment of Figure 03pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Helix AI v2 or successor enables generalized household task transfer (multi-home)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Figure cumulative installed base passes 1,000 homes/sitespre #1 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Cumulative installed base passes 10,000 homes/sitescascade #2 · pending · 2028-05-31 — If unit price has not crossed below $15K by end of window, 100K-home target slipspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — No competitor demonstrates closed-loop coffee/Keurig task with uncut footage by mid-2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Public benchmark/leaderboard for humanoid manipulation parity establishedpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure unseen-home generalization demo (voice command in unfamiliar setting)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Tesla Optimus Gen 3 / 1X / Agility public demo matches Figure 03 capability profilecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 02 sustained autonomous operation milestone (≥ 4-5 hr continuous neural-net runtime in unstructured tasks)pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Figure 03 (next-gen platform) public unveil or technical previewcascade #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Figure demonstrates multi-task generalization in an unseen home environment for ≥ 1 daycascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Figure home pilot expansion announcement ("tens of units" deployed to non-employee households)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-09 — Agibot captured 39% of global humanoid market in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Unitree ships >5,500 humanoids vs Figure ~150 in 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — US humanoid OEM crosses 1,000 unit annual productioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Western humanoid maker raises $1B+ at $20B+ valuationcascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-09 — Chinese humanoid output projected to surge 94% in 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal trade restrictions on Chinese humanoid importscascade #5 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #6 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First humanoid-robot deployment with active human co-working (no isolation barrier)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — ISO/IEC publishes humanoid-specific safety standard (analogous to ISO 13482 for service robots)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First independent dataset shows humanoid-robot injury rate <=10% of human-equivalent task injury ratepre #2 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-11 — Insurance industry creates dedicated workers-comp/liability product class for humanoid-robot deployerspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure publicly cites order book or wait-list metriccascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start as parallel demand validationcascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Industry-wide humanoid order book exceeds 100,000 units cumulativelycascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First public-market humanoid IPO or direct listingcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global humanoid demand reaches 30,000 units in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla Optimus external customer shipments beginpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Foundation deploys 10,000 humanoids in 2026, 50,000 by end-2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative humanoid robots deployed in SF Bay Area exceeds 5,000cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — More-humanoids-than-humans density NOT achieved in any SF block by 2028-11-30pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Figure 03 ships with persistent memory feature accessible to home userspre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Voice-agent persistent-memory consumer norm reaches inflection (cascade enabler)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Brookfield home pilot publishes end-to-end demonstration: arrival, multi-day task, family interactionpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Hark (Adcock's new AI venture) ships personality/memory layer integrated with Figure robotspre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Children-safe interaction mode demonstrated publiclycascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Figure Grid facility opens with 24/7 operationspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Figure production triples from March to May 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-19 — Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Bakucascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cumulative Figure 03 deployment crosses 1000 unitscascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Figure or competitor announces NASA / DoD humanoid space partnershippre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First space-DC announcement (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud) cites humanoid assemblypre #2 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First humanoid microgravity demo (parabolic flight or ISS)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Cislunar / lunar surface humanoid deployment commitmentpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AstroForge Vestri asteroid mission fliespre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NASA Artemis lunar mining base architecture fundedpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — First commercial lunar mining sample-return missionpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — International framework on celestial-body resource extraction signedcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-16 — First commercial extraction of asteroid material returned to Earth at scalepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US or EU public funding package for Greenland critical-minerals infrastructurepre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Critical Metals or KoBold opens Greenland pilot processing plantpre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First commercial humanoid robot deployed in Arctic mining or harsh-environment field testpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Humanoid robot unit cost <$30K plus reliability validated in industrial settingpre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First commercial Greenland rare earth or graphite shipment to non-Chinese refinercascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Asteroid mining commercial commodity return predates Greenland operational minecascade #2 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #3 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Goldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes humanoid GDP-impact model with jurisdiction comparisonspre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First sub-national jurisdiction (city/state) launches humanoid-friendly economic zonepre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Global humanoid shipments cross 100,000 units in calendar yearcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First peer-reviewed empirical paper measuring per-jurisdiction GDP uplift from humanoid deploymentcascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Wage suppression of low-skill manual labor exceeds 5% in robot-dense jurisdictioncascade #3 · pending · 2028-11-30 — If 100K total humanoid units not deployed by window-close 2028-11-30, 100x-GDP claim fails timingcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First humanoid OEM ships robot with thermal/IR sensor modulepre #4 · pending · 2027-12-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Figure or Tesla announces multi-spectral perception SDK / customer featurepre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First commercial humanoid deployment in domain requiring beyond-visible perceptionpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure or competitor demonstrates Helix-class robot performing >=3 distinct novel household tasks not in training setpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure ships paid commercial home-deployment betapre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Robotics academic paper demonstrates 'one neural net, many tasks' generalization beating task-specific baselinespre #1 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Figure / 1X / Apptronik raise revenue >$500M annualized from humanoid salescascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: Humanoid robot installed base >100K units globallypre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Helix 02 deletes 109K lines hand-engineered C++ — 'Software 2.0' milestonepre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Hark omni-model (speech + reasoning + action) integrated in Figure 03pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Single foundation model published spanning ≥4 robotic embodiments commerciallypre #1 · pending · 2027-09-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-16 — BMW Plant Leipzig pilot phase begins (first European Physical AI deployment)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Second named industrial customer disclosed (beyond BMW; UPS / Fortune-100 manufacturer / 3PL)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure customer roster remains in single digits (lead-customer concentration check)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Figure announces broad-distribution shift OR retains lead-customer model (resolution check)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Helix 02 (or successor) demonstrates room-scale autonomy on novel tasks not in training distributionpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Industry-wide acceptance of VLA (Vision-Language-Action) models as standard humanoid stackpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Cross-domain transfer: warehouse Helix model generalizes to home tasks (or vice versa)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Robot foundation model hits 100M+ data hours — scaling-law inflectionpre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure home pilot — long-horizon tasks in unseen homespre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure deploys F.03 in non-automotive vertical (logistics, retail, home)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Vertical/form-factor humanoid wins >=20% of new automotive orderspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Robot-built-robot demonstration at BotQpre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Helix or successor whole-body control model publicly benchmarks task-completion time vs. 2026pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Figure or peer reports field humanoids running at >=3x current observed speed in customer sitepre #4 · pending · 2028-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BotQ factory throughput hits one Figure unit per minute or fasterpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry benchmark (e.g. RoboHIVE, BEHAVIOR) records 5x speedup on humanoid manipulation taskspre #1 · pending · 2029-03-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-01-30 — Amodei refines prediction to 70-80% probabilitypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Medvi documented at $401M revenue with 2-person teampre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — First publicly named AI-CEO billion-dollar company with human-puppet structurecascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Multiple solopreneurs cross $100M ARR with team <5cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Fortune-1000 firm publicly automates >= 50% of executive committee functions with AIpre #5 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First publicly disclosed Fortune-500 CEO (or interim CEO) replaced by AI agent systempre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BLS reports manual-labor occupations growing faster than knowledge-worker occupations in 2027-2028pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Unskilled-labor humanoid-robot deployment in retail/hospitality remains <5% of US workforcepre #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Median CEO compensation in S&P 500 declines >= 20% from 2024 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First humanoid robot achieves >= 90% of human dexterity in unstructured manual tasks (independent benchmark)cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Major lab releases models on weekly cadence in 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — API-level model versioning shifts to daily release notescascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Continuous training / online learning becomes default for frontier modelscascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Hourly cadence: 24+ named releases in one calendar day from a single labcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — AlphaEvolve-style autonomous algorithm discovery system deployed inside frontier labpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI / Google publish 'recursive self-improvement' framing in official communicationscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic reports >50% software-development speed gain from coding agentscascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (writing code, generating training data)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier labs grow effective AI 'workforce' to tens of thousands of agentic instancescascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Frontier lab introduces tiered/withheld access to top-capability model citing securitypre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Two-tier global AI access regime emerges (vetted vs. public)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic launches restricted-access tier for top-tier modelspre #3 · pending · 2026-07-26 — NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming monthspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Open-source closes gap on withheld frontier capability within 6-12 monthspre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Frontier labs' top model gap to public release widens to 6+ monthscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major foundation model lab launches embodied-agent platform/SDKpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First commercially deployed AI agent controls a humanoid body autonomously >24 hourspre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First Fortune 500 company replaces >100 white-collar roles with embodied AI agentspre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cumulative humanoid + embodied agent fleet exceeds 1M operational unitscascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First embodied AI agent achieves legal personhood or contracting statuscascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Autonomous AI agent contributes co-author / primary credit on Nature/Science paperpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI solves new mathematical conjecture or proves significant open problempre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI discovers new material with experimentally verified order-of-magnitude property improvementpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-driven AGI/AI labs report multiple sciences 'bulk-solved' simultaneouslycascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2027-12-16 — CBO or major IB upgrades 2030 GDP path by >=20% citing AI/automationpre #5 · pending · 2028-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Productivity growth (BLS nonfarm) breaks above 4.0% YoYpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — G20 official statement names AI/robotics as primary driver of GDP outperformancepre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Tesla bot or Optimus generates >$10B in segment revenue annualizedpre #1 · pending · 2029-02-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #2 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top-5 SaaS vendor publicly confirms seat-compression revenue impact >20%pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Top-10 SaaS sector aggregate revenue contracts YoYpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major SaaS bankruptcy or take-private under AI-disruption pressurecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative tech layoffs cross 200K for 2026pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS labor productivity shows 3-10x productivity gain in AI-exposed rolescascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First US state introduces UBI bill explicitly tied to AI displacementpre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BLS unemployment rate driven by AI-displaced occupations crosses 5.5%pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First US state passes UBI legislationpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — Federal UBI proposal advances past committee in Congresscascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tier-1 tech company publicly mandates 'AI-augmented productivity expectations' i.e. higher outputpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — BLS productivity report shows hours-per-worker holding flat or rising despite AI adoptionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — ADP/large-employer survey shows AI-augmented roles working longer hours than peerspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-30 — 996/997 schedule normalization in US tech firms reportedpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — OECD or IMF working paper documents AI-driven hours expansion (vs reduction)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX/Starlink V3 launch cadence reaches >50 satellites/monthpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First commercial orbital data center deployment announced by hyperscalerpre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First MW-scale orbital compute payload reaches operational statuspre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cumulative orbital data center capacity exceeds 100 MWcascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Waymo targets 1M weekly paid robotaxi rides by end of 2026pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First US state legislates phased restriction or dedicated lanes for human-driven vehiclespre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Insurance industry launches preferred-rate tiering favoring autonomous over human drivingpre #2 · pending · 2028-08-21 — Robotaxi service achieves cost parity with personal vehicle ownership in major US metrospre #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Cultural inflection: manual driving framed as risky/elite hobby in mainstream media coveragecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla Optimus production crosses 10,000 cumulative unitspre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #4 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Annual humanoid robot production (industry-wide) crosses 1 million unitspre #2 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Tesla or Figure crosses 10M cumulative humanoid unitscascade #2 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefupre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla cumulative Optimus production crosses 10,000 unitspre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Tesla annualized Optimus production rate crosses 100,000/yearpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — Tesla cumulative Optimus production crosses 1 million unitscascade #1 · pending · 2030-08-31 — Tesla annualized Optimus production crosses 10,000,000/year ('tens of millions a year')cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — ATP-BIO consortium or NIH funds >=$50M dedicated organ-banking initiativepre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Reversibly cryopreserved mammalian organ successfully transplanted into recipientpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — 21st Century Medicine or competitor publishes large-mammal whole-brain reversible vitrificationpre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — FDA opens pre-IND track for vitrified-organ transplant trialcascade #1 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First UNOS-listed transplant using cryopreserved organcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Colorado AI Act takes effect (first comprehensive US state AI law)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act fully applicable; Commission GPAI fines authority kicks in (up to €15M / 3%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-01 — California ADM (automated decision-making) requirements take effect for businessespre #1 · pending · 2027-08-02 — Pre-existing GPAI models (placed before Aug 2025) must be fully AI Act compliantcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — QWERTY remains default keyboard layout in iOS/Android/Windows 11/macOScascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Voice typing adoption % of total text input on smartphonescascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Brain-computer interface text input crosses 10K daily userscascade #4 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Major OS ships AI-native input mode as default replacing keyboardcascade #5 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Hardware keyboard sales decline >50% YoYcascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Coding agent market scales from $0.55B (2024) to ≥$10B (2026)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Gartner 40% AI-agent embed rate in enterprise apps confirmed by surveypre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — ≥1 Big-Tech firm reports >2x output growth with flat headcount via AI augmentationcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Inference workload share of total AI compute crosses 66%pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — NVIDIA inference market share falls below 50% as TPU/ASIC capture growing sharepre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Sub-cent per million tokens inference price tier emerges for distilled modelscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2025-06-30 — Zendesk fully-resolved-ticket pricing model in marketpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-14 — HubSpot Breeze AI shifts to outcome-based pricingpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 40% of enterprise applications feature AI agentspre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Hybrid usage+outcome pricing reaches 60% of SaaS vendorspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Major professional services firm shifts billable-hour model to outcome pricingpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — ≥2 non-biology fields hit AlphaFold-class accuracy via foundation modelpre #2 · pending · 2029-03-01 — ≥1 non-biology AI scientific tool wins major prize (Breakthrough / Turing / similar)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — ≥3 fields where AI prediction is now the default first-pass methodologycascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — EU launches sovereign-AI-stack initiative independent of both US and China (third sphere emerges)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Bifurcated internet: AI services walled off by sphere — US users blocked from Chinese AI platforms or vice versa at scalpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Major non-aligned country (Brazil, Indonesia, S. Africa) forced to formally pick US or China spherecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Late 2026 launch of AI V1 prototype satellites (70-100 kW per satellite, on-orbit testing)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First peer-reviewed AI breakthrough in physics or materials science attributed to AI-generated hypothesispre #3 · pending · 2028-09-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-01-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-10-01 — Operational orbital data center reaches 1 GW aggregate compute capacitycascade #1 · pending · 2032-01-01 — Formal lunar-mass-driver / Dyson-swarm engineering study published by NASA, ESA, or DARPAcascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Prompt Engineer becomes formally tracked job category (135.8% YoY growth)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Context Engineer / RAG Engineer roles emerge as distinct from prompt engineerpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Chief AI Officer (CAIO/CAIRO) becomes standardized C-suite role at S&P 500 companiespre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Data-rights brokerage emerges as formal commercial categorypre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — BLS adds new job classifications for AI-specific roles in O*NET databasepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Auction-house guarantee rate exceeds 50% for post-war evening salespre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First public museum / mainstream art-fair restricts AI-generated art entriespre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Top-50 living-artist average price exceeds $5M (from $1-2M)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-31 — First major K-12 system bans AI/phones in classroom statewide with explicit 'wilderness' framingpre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First peer-reviewed study reports >2-sigma learning gains from AI-aided then AI-removed pedagogypre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Alpha-style 2-hour-learning model adopted by 100+ schools nationallypre #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First state competitive scholarship awarded to a sub-12-year-old with a published research contributionpre #1 · pending · 2029-09-30 — ISEF / Regeneron Science Talent Search median age drops >2 years vs 2024 baselinecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5.5 ships with 86% hallucination rate (most-capable model worst-calibrated)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Industry-leader hallucination rate drops below 2% on standard factual benchmarkscascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Self-correcting RLHF or constitutional method reduces error rate by 50% vs basecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Median enterprise reports planning-cycle compression from quarterly to monthlypre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First Fortune-500 firm publicly adopts continuous-strategy operating modelpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Agentic AI shifts decision cycles from days to minutes at flagship deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Course-correction in minutes becomes industry-standard at AI-native firmscascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — McKinsey runs 20K AI agents alongside 40K humans (1:2 ratio)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly named >50%-AI-employee company emerges with valuation >$100Mcascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Pure-AI company (zero human operational employees) emerges and operates >6 monthscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: SEC / state regulator issues guidance on AI-only entity legal statuscascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First documented case of AI agent treasury exceeding $100Mpre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First sovereign or institutional AI agent fund publicly disclosedpre #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Labor share of US national income drops below 55% (post-1947 record)pre #2 · pending · 2029-06-16 — AI infrastructure capex exceeds combined wages in non-tech sectorspre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — AI agent revenue capture exceeds median household income aggregatedpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First confirmed credible death threat or attack against a named frontier-AI executive (FBI/DOJ disclosure or CEO public pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Mass anti-AI protest event with >10,000 participants in major US/EU citypre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Major frontier AI company adopts no-public-speaking policy or relocates HQ for executive safetycascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — UN High-Level Expert Group Beyond-GDP final indicator dashboard publishedpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — UN General Assembly resolution endorsing beyond-GDP frameworkpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Peer-reviewed paper proposes 'Abundance Capability Index' or named-equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2028-05-01 — First G7 or G20 member adopts beyond-GDP composite as official statistic alongside GDPpre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Major investment bank or rating agency publishes ACI-style sovereign rating supplementcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Multiple national constitutions or budget laws reference beyond-GDP measurecascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Frontier model release cadence remains <=4 months between major versionspre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — OpenAI/Anthropic safety evaluation period >=4 weekspre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Internal-only model demos at OpenAI DevDay or research blogpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-02 — Frontier benchmark advances (FrontierMath, ARC-AGI) signal capability jumps every quartercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — OpenAI ships next-generation reasoning model in mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner: 20% of orgs use AI to flatten middle managementpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Entry-level white-collar hiring drops 25% YoY in BLS datapre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Solo-founder companies reach $10M+ ARRpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major Fortune 500 firm announces 50%+ headcount reduction citing AIpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Self-employment / 1099 share of US workforce crosses 40%cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Agentic AI deployment crosses 17% of enterprisespre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AgentMail-style agent-to-agent email APIs achieve commercial tractioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Enterprise scale problem persists: 70-80% of agentic initiatives don't reach scalecascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Gartner Hype Cycle 2026 places agentic AI past Peak of Inflated Expectationscascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major email/comms platforms ship native agent-to-agent protocolscascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — FTC concludes Microsoft-OpenAI antitrust probe with binding actionpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Antitrust-driven minority-stake or partnership-cap rule on AI investmentspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Big 5 (MSFT/GOOG/META/AMZN/AAPL) combined AI-segment revenue crosses $500Bpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Major divestiture or structural separation imposed on hyperscalercascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscaler combined 2026 capex reaches $725B (77% YoY increase)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Amazon expects negative free cash flow ~$17B in 2026 from AI capexpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-08 — Hyperscaler 2027 capex guidance maintains >=20% YoY growthpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First public hyperscaler reports negative cumulative FCF for trailing 24 monthspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — AI data center capex sustains >=$800B aggregate by FY2028cascade #1 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #2 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Responsible Scaling Policy revised — removes commitment to halt on serious riskpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic discloses Claude writes 70-90% of own training code (recursive self-improvement signal)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic Institute publishes recursive-self-improvement governance frameworkcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model training run exceeds 1e27 FLOPs at Anthropic before competitorscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-19 — New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Frontier-lab production system explicitly markets multi-agent scaling as scaling axispre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major benchmark improvement attributable to parallel-agent scaling (>=10% gain)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Multi-agent scaling appears in major industry survey (Stanford AI Index, Epoch AI) as a named scaling axiscascade #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Capex / R&D budget shift toward orchestration/coordination infrastructurecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier AI demonstrates measurable scientific research contribution in physics or chemistrypre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model scores >=85% on graduate-level physics and chemistry benchmarks (GPQA Diamond)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Wavefront spreads to biology / biomedical: AI co-authors notable drug-discovery or protein-design resultcascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — By 2027 mid-year, frontier AI surpasses human expert performance on majority of STEM olympiad-level domainscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — DeepSeek-class open or low-cost frontier reasoning at sub-$2 per million tokenspre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier reasoning model API price drops below $5 per million output tokenspre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Flagship frontier model (Opus / GPT-5.5 Pro / Ultra-class) holds price floor near $30+ per 1M outputpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Average industry cost-per-reasoning-task falls >=80% from 2025 baselinecascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — 55K AI-attributed layoffs in 2025 (Workday, Amazon, Salesforce et al)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — 32K tech-firm job losses in first 2 months of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major industry (call centers, BPO, customer support) shows >15% YoY headcount declinecascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven labor displacement reaches 1M jobs/year displacement ratecascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Autonomous AI agent publishes peer-reviewed scientific discoverypre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI literature meta-analysis identifies replication crisis in major sub-fieldpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major scientific society reissues guidelines after AI-driven re-analysispre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-discovered 'wrong turn' triggers retraction wave in named fieldcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major journal (Nature/Science/Cell/NEJM) issues retraction of Nobel-laureate paper attributed to AI-detected errorpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Gregg Semenza (2019 Physiology) prize-cited paper retracted or formally challengedpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI tool (e.g., ImageTwin, Proofig, Imagetwin) becomes standard pre-publication screening at top-5 journalspre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Nobel Foundation issues formal statement on retraction policy or laureate reviewpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative retraction count for living Nobel laureates exceeds 60 papers (vs ~41 in 2024)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Physics-based AI simulations operational at military-grade fidelity (WarMatrix)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-15 — AI co-author on peer-reviewed physics paper resolving prior open problempre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — World-model AI demonstrates novel physical-system prediction at SOTAcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-06-18 — The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI demonstrates novel physics derivation in peer-reviewed venuepre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI system formally verifies a Fields-Medal-class open math conjecturepre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-driven biology lab autonomously completes wet-lab discovery cyclecascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — First Proof Challenge: AI solves >=1 of 10 expert-curated math problemscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — All 10 of Blundin-referenced research math problems solved by AIcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor or competitor ships permissionless long-running agents in research previewpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Claude Code Auto Mode launches with classifier-based approval delegationpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — METR autonomy time horizon doubles in 2026 H1cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic moves Auto Mode out of research preview to GAcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major incident from permissionless agent autonomycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First mass-impact (>100K orgs) supply chain attack with confirmed LLM-rewritten dependencypre #1 · pending · 2027-06-01 — LoRA adapter or model-weight backdoor attack publicly attributed in Hugging Face / public registrycascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-19 — New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Foresight Institute Feynman Prize annual cycle issues new entry guidelines or prize bumppre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Zyvex, Foresight, or DNA-nanotech lab announces credible 'within 2 years' timeline for Grand Prize attemptpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Peer-reviewed paper demonstrates positionally-controlled atomically-precise mechanosynthesispre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Functional nanoscale 8-bit adder demonstrated in published workcascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Feynman Grand Prize claim filed with Foresight Institutecascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple smart glasses launch (late 2026) — confirms multi-vendor normative cyclepre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI smart glasses installed base reaches >=50M units globallycascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Apple smart glasses targeting late-2026 launchpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Ray-Ban Meta Gen 3 ships with continuous-AI / face-recognition modespre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — U.S. or EU enacts always-on wearable recording disclosure rulespre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Three+ FAANG-tier vendors ship always-on AI wearables concurrentlycascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Continuous-recording smart glasses ship with always-on capture as default optionpre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First major US criminal case admits smart-glass first-person POV recording as evidencepre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — US smart-glasses penetration in Gen Z (16-24) exceeds 25%cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major US city deploys AI surveillance/predictive-policing at scale (Blundin's mechanism)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Privacy/civil-liberties pushback creates state-level surveillance restrictionspre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Real-Time Crime Index midyear 2027 confirms or reverses 2025 record declinepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — FBI UCR 2026 annual data shows continued violent-crime decline OR reversescascade #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — 2028 violent crime rate published by FBI shows confirmed directioncascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Government policy office (UK, US, Singapore) deploys LLM-society sim to test policy interventions before rolloutpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Society sim scales to >1M agents with emergent behavior matching real-world reference datasetpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Commercial 'digital twin society' product launched serving >$10M ARR (vendors like Salesforce, IBM, McKinsey)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-05 — OpenAI launches Frontier agent platform for enterprisespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — AWS launches autonomous frontier agents for security and opspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic ships persistent Claude agent product (24/7 capable)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Google DeepMind/Gemini ships enterprise 24/7 agent offeringcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mistral / xAI / Meta ships frontier 24/7 agent offeringcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: agentic SaaS replaces human-in-the-loop in CRM/ERPcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Mexican government breach: 195M taxpayer records exfiltrated via Claude Codepre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 88% of enterprises report AI agent security incidentspre #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and will force expansion into space.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of publicly running autonomous AI agents crosses 100Mcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly attributed physical-world harm event from AI agentcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2025-11-01 — AI-powered digital arbitration framework with smart contracts published showing 99.5% time reduction and 92.4% expert-rapre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — AI agents holding their own private keys, managing capital, entering contracts without human sign-off (autonomous econompre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First sovereign jurisdiction recognizes blockchain-anchored AI arbitration award as enforceablepre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Charter city or autonomous zone deploys end-to-end programmable governance stack (smart-contract law, AI dispute resolutpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — $1B+ in disputes resolved annually via AI+crypto arbitration platforms (Kleros-style or successors)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Federal judges publicly acknowledge legal system trailing AI pacepre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major US court adopts AI-augmented case management at scalepre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI capability doubles 4+ times within 24 months (Google Gemini doubling time)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Smart contract dispute resolved on-chain in <1 second using AI arbiterpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Kleros / on-chain arbitration platform processes >100K disputes in a calendar yearpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First US state authorizes AI-only adjudication for small-claims under $25Kcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Stargate Phase 1 ($100B+ committed) campus reaches first GW of operational capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Schmidt-cited 29 GW of additional AI-focused data-center power online by 2027pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Goldman Sachs aggregate data-center power demand reaches 84 GW by 2027 (AI = 27%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Grid investment passes $720B cumulative spend ($240B/yr run rate)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Schmidt-cited additional 67 GW of AI power online cumulative 2027-2030cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2025-01-21 — OpenAI announces $500B Stargate Project (5x stated $100B spend)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-15 — OpenAI raises $122B Series funding round at ~$852B valuationpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SECcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-ratecascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-07 — OpenAI IPO pricing/listing at >=$1T valuationcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — US/Caltech SSPP follow-on commercial demo announcedpre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — China Geostationary 10 kW SBSP demonstrationpre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Second sovereign nation announces independent SBSP programpre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — First commercial Dyson-swarm-precursor satellite constellation fundedcascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — China megawatt-scale GEO SBSP demonstrationcascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — 30-50% of planned 2026 data center capacity slips to 2028pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major hyperscaler delays >=1 GW data center build for grid reasonspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — US grid ISO declares emergency power conservation due to AI demandcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-14 — Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starship V3 first orbital Starlink V3 launchpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — 8+ Starship Starlink launches in 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — SpaceX rideshare/dedicated 3rd-party launch share declines below 15% of Starship cadencepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Competitor (Amazon Kuiper, Eutelsat) experiences launch-vehicle delay attributed to SpaceX capacity allocationcascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Terran R static-fire / WDR test campaign at LC-16 Cape Canaveralpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Terran R first launch attempt (per Diamandis '1-2 years away' framing in Feb 2026)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — First Terran R successful payload-to-orbitcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-11-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Google Project Suncatcher prototype satellites launch by early 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Multi-org orbital data center constellation deployments cross 100 satellites combinedpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-26 — NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming monthspre #4 · pending · 2026-09-11 — Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity.pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Terafab small-batch Tesla AI5 chip productionpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-09 — Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates lopre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Terafab volume production begins (100K wpm target)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Tesla AI5/AI6 chip share of Optimus + FSD silicon exceeds 50% from Terafabcascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-15 — Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustmentcascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2031-12-29 — Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Ireland announces BIA pilot extension and expansion to 2,000-2,200 artists for 2026-2029pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Ireland publishes final third-year evaluation showing aggregate benefit-cost ratiopre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Second non-Irish jurisdiction adopts arts-specific UBI pilot citing Irelandpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Ireland BIA scheme made permanent or made universal within Irelandpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Comparable peacetime work-creation scheme expanded beyond arts in any G20 countrypre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Single-year AI-attributed corporate layoffs in US exceed 300Kpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate breaches 5.5% with AI displacement cited in FOMC commentarypre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Entry-level white-collar hiring drops >=40% YoY in S&P 500 — Fortune 'killing the path to first job' thesis confirmedpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Federal AI displacement policy (UBI pilot, retraining act, or AI-tax) signed into lawpre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: net new job creation (gross creation minus AI displacement) goes negative for 4+ consecutive quarterscascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US AI-attributed layoffs cross 500K cumulativepre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First clear sectoral AI-driven employment decline (legal, software, customer service)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 6% during initial AI-displacement wavepre #2 · pending · 2028-08-30 — No single month sees >500K AI-attributed layoffs (no shock event)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cumulative AI-attributed displacement reaches 5M jobs without unemployment spike >7%pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major US city sees youth-led AI/jobs protest >5,000 attendeespre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Federal policy response: youth-targeted UBI pilot or jobs guarantee program launchedpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Major frontier-AI CEO publicly proposes federal UHI / UBI funded by AI taxpre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — 3 or more US state legislatures introduce UBI/UHI legislation tied to AI displacementpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AEI / NBER meta-analysis publishes peer-reviewed findings on UBI effectiveness for AI displacementpre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Federal-level UHI/UBI legislation introduced in US Congresscascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-08 — FTC mandates AI Interoperability for largest providers (Microsoft/Alphabet)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Big-Tech earnings-call language pivots from capability hype to caveatcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Public AI-leader statements explicitly downplay near-term capabilitycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Antitrust enforcement action filed against an AI hyperscaler partnershipcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2025-07-19 — Frontier model achieves IMO gold-medal level on official problemspre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic / OpenAI / DeepMind publish dedicated 'AI for physics' research programpre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — AI co-author on physics result honored by major prize / Nature coverpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Open problem in theoretical physics resolved by AI (yes-or-no benchmark)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Active AI/agent open-source projects reach 10,000+ on GitHubpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First sub-$1M AI startup achieves $1B ARR or $1B valuation in <12 monthspre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Permissionless agentic disruption creates new $10B+ market categorypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Top-50 incumbent collapses or reverses course due to permissionless competitorcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Bitcoin BIP-360 (post-quantum addresses) activated on mainnetpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NIST IR 8547 final published deprecation timeline for ECDSA/RSApre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) public demonstrationpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major exchange or custodian (Coinbase, Binance, Fidelity Digital) loss event tied to private-key compromise >$1Bpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Privacy regulation: EU/US enacts comprehensive surveillance/data-collection frameworkpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ChatGPT daily commerce queries surpass 50Mpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Walmart and Target integrate into agent-ready commerce protocolspre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Competing protocol war emerges: ACP vs AP2 vs MPP vs x402pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Agent-mediated transactions reach >=10% of US e-commerce GMVcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mainstream-press cover-story: "What is human purpose in age of AI?"pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS US labor force participation prints below 62% for 3 consecutive monthspre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — UBI pilot announced at federal or major-state levelcascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: aggregate "all-AI agent army" headcount across labs > human workforce of those labscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — First Fortune 500 non-tech company publicly attributes >20% productivity gain to AIpre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — BLS productivity statistics show first sustained acceleration above 2010s trendpre #3 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Median Fortune 500 capex on AI exceeds 5% of revenuepre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Net white-collar job displacement reaches >2M cumulative USpre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — First non-tech S&P 500 sector posts >10% headcount reduction year-over-yearcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Anthropic Economic Index or BLS-published AI labor study shows net welfare gainpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-driven scientific discoveries: >=3 Nature/Science papers in 2027 with AI as primary discovery methodpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-attributable harms: aggregate reported AI-caused fatalities, mass-disinformation events, fraud lossespre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI-attributable mortality reduction documented: >=2 FDA-approved AI-discovered drugs reach patientspre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Mainstream sentiment indicator: Pew/Gallup AI-net-positive survey crosses 50%cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — 55,000 AI-attributed job losses tallied for 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-04 — Goldman Sachs forecasts AI-led layoffs continue into 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — McKinsey reports workers spend 30-40% less on routine taskscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major bank/insurance company announces >25% headcount reduction tied to AIcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Forward-looking 3x productivity validation by mid-2027cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-driven margin expansion: top-5 US banks report ROE >18% (sustained two consecutive years)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Top-3 US bank reports trailing-twelve-month revenue ≥$150Bcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-30 — No top-10 US bank or insurer reports 3x revenue growth over any 24-month window through 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Average net productivity increase from AI remains <15% in 2027 enterprise surveys (vs hyped 30-50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Fortune 500 mass-layoff wave attributable to AI displacement does NOT materialize at >5% headcount level by 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI video generator market reaches $5B+ enterprise revenue by end-2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — YouTube Shorts daily-views surpass TikTok in any single quarterpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — AI-generated video uploads become >=20% of YouTube total upload hourspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — YouTube ad revenue YoY growth exceeds Netflix/Disney+ subscriber revenue growthpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — US theatrical box office continues structural decline >=10% vs 2024 baselinecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — TikTok divestiture forced US ban resolved without permanent shutdownpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — TikTok deploys generative-AI-driven personalized video at scalepre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — TikTok-driven box office: 3+ films credit TikTok virality with >$500M global grosspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — US theatrical box office structural decline continues >=15% vs 2024pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — TikTok global ad revenue exceeds $40B (vs $34.8B forecast 2026)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-01 — Real-time interactive deepfakes participate in live video conferencespre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major banks or financial institutions deprecate voice biometric authenticationpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative deepfake fraud losses exceed $5 billion globallycascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Regulatory mandate against pure video/voice-only KYC for high-risk transactionscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2025-02-03 — Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-linepre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to shippre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Chinese / non-US lab releases model with capability US labs withheldpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state enforcement action against startup for unsafe AI deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Voice AI VC investment exceeds $5B annual run-ratepre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — 30%+ of weekly AI users primarily use voice as input modalitycascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First mainstream consumer BCI/gestural device crosses 1M unit cumulative sales — modality competition with speechpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Frontier AI lab launches multi-modal interface where speech is <50% of high-bandwidth interaction (BCI, gestural, text pcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2026-01-13 — BIS / Commerce final rule or update on AI chip export controls in H1 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Chip Security Act (or equivalent location-tracking legislation) passes US Housecascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — DOJ announces additional smuggling indictments or seizures (>$50M) in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major Chinese frontier model (DeepSeek V5, Qwen 3, GLM-5) released with publicly hidden compute provenancecascade #4 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: Worldwide AI-chip export controls enacted (beyond China-specific)cascade #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: Open-source model leak or repository-takedown action becomes US-China flashpointcascade #6 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Karpathy AutoResearch demonstrates RSI in production trainingpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-26 — ICLR 2026 RSI workshop convenes (first-of-kind)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs grow agent workforces from thousands to >=100Kcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First public benchmark showing AI-self-improvement >=2x baseline gaincascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major economy declares AI productivity inflection in 2026 GDP/productivity statscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — GPT-5.2-style scaffolded reasoning agent extends or generalizes the gluon-amplitude result to a second open theoretical-pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Frontier-model release with explicit 'autonomous research agent' branding from at least one of OpenAI/Anthropic/Google Dpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major AI lab publishes peer-reviewed scientific paper in which AI is credited as primary author of a novel theoretical-ppre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major physics community body (APS, IOP, CERN) issues formal statement or working group on AI as scientific contributorpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Independent physical-laboratory experimental confirmation of an AI-derived theoretical predictioncascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-16 — Nobel Prize in Physics or major physics prize (Breakthrough, Wolf, Sakurai) cites AI-assisted discovery in award rationacascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Wissner-Gross's Physical Superintelligence platform announces transformative inventionpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — OpenAI / DeepMind / Anthropic claim 'significant scientific discovery' from frontier modelcascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AI-derived physical principle replicated in independent lab (validation)cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: AI pause beginning 2027pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Cumulative global AI capex exceeds $1.5T in 2026-2028 windowcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2025-08-11 — Sovereign AI compute treated as critical infrastructure (national security framing)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First academic discipline declares ML/AI research output dominant over human authorshipcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex hits $725B — no slowdown despite backlashpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act high-risk compliance deadline reaches Aug 2, 2026 with no pausepre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — No major AI lab voluntary training pause >6 months by 2028pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: AI pause beginning 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — China indigenous frontier model matches GPT-class capability benchmarkpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major US AI safety / pause legislation passes Congress or EOpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Defense intel reports China narrowing or reaching parity in frontier AIpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — China announces national-scale humanoid robot deployment matching Figure/Teslacascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Annual US GDP growth crosses 5% for first time since pandemic (vs ~2-3% baseline)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Global GDP growth crosses 5% (well above 3% trend)pre #3 · pending · 2028-11-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Productivity (TFP) growth in US rises to >= 3% annually (vs ~1% historical)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Single year shows >= 10% real GDP growth in any G20 economy primarily attributed to AIcascade #1 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Triple-digit (>= 100%) annual GDP growth at country or global level (Horowitz claim)cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #3 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Daily AI commerce queries on ChatGPT exceed 50Mpre #2 · hit · 2025-05-31 — Adoption growth in lowest-income countries 4x higher than highest-incomepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Generative AI reaches 50% US adult adoption faster than internet didcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index records lowest-ever 38% positive AI sentiment in USpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-21 — 142+ activist groups in 24 states organize against AI infrastructurepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — G7 nation enacts AI windfall tax, UBI pilot, or wealth-cap legislationcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI tool penetration: >=30% of working-age adults using generative AI weekly for production workpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Inequality measure: Top 1% of creators capture >=80% of creator economy incomepre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Creator economy headcount crosses 100M globally (vs ~50M in 2024)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — UBI/non-work-income recipients in US >=10M people (vs <500K in 2025)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Time-use survey shows screen/passive-consumption hours per capita rises >=15% vs 2025cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Class of 2026 worst job market for new grads since pandemic onset (NACE survey)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior tech postings drop ≥50% from 2024 baselinepre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Salesforce hiring 1,000 new graduates + Amazon 11,000 SWE interns 2026 — entrepreneurial/builder tier preservedpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Youth unemployment exceeds 10% (US 16-24) — ServiceNow CEO 30% warning materializes partwaypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-05-01 — MoonAgents Card and a16z stablecoin-agent thesis publicly launchpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS reports new business formation continues elevated through AI-tooling adoption windowpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Stablecoin annual transaction volume exceeds $50 trillionpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 5.5% through entire window despite AI displacement narrativepre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First publicly documented case of single-founder >$10M ARR business operated >50% by AI agentspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Big 4 / MBB explicitly announce AI-driven entry-level hiring freeze or restructurepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Entry-level white-collar postings drop >25% YoY on LinkedIn / Indeedpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI-fluency requirement appears in >50% of entry-level postingspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — UBI / Public Wealth Fund / 4-day workweek policy proposals enter major-party platformscascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — BLS / OECD entry-level unemployment rate rises >2% above experienced-worker ratecascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2026-03-14 — Stablecoin transaction volume hits $33T in 2025; agentic-payments named primary 2026 driverpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — OKX Agent Payments Framework and Coinbase x402 mature into multi-issuer standardpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — GENIUS Act or successor stablecoin legislation creates legal pathway for agent-native bankingpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First de novo 'AI bank' chartered or licensed in major jurisdictionpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI agent demonstrably operates a business bank account end-to-end on crypto railspre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — a16z 2026 Big Ideas explicitly identifies AI agents + on-chain finance as central themepre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Stablecoin transaction volume crosses $50T annualized run-ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — x402 / KYA / agent-payment standard sees major-protocol adoptionpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI agent on-chain transaction volume crosses $1B/monthpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Public AI-economy thesis adopted by mainstream Wall Street equity researchpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-01 — C2PA Content Credentials standard adopted as machine-readable disclosure for AI content (EU AI Act Article 50 enforcemenpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major frontier model (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google) integrates blockchain provenance attestation as default output modepre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Crypto market cap re-rating: utility tokens tied to AI provenance/agent payments outperform bitcoin in 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-05 — Apple model remains primarily walled-garden, not open-weightspre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple announces formal open-weights or open-licensing strategy for a foundation modelpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple ships server-side foundation model API to developers (Private Cloud Compute)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Apple iPhone hardware sales beneficiary of on-device AI: services + hardware revenue inflectionpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Open foundation model strategy adopted at competitor (Samsung/Google/Microsoft) hardware tiercascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Apple OpenELM/DCLM open-weight family expansion past 20 modelspre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Apple Private Cloud Compute publicly hosts third-party open-weight modelspre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Apple market cap returns to top-3 globally and crosses $4T in 2026-2028 windowpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Intuitive Machines Lanteris vertical-integration acquisition closes — first satellite-LEO-cislunar primepre #2 · pending · 2029-06-15 — Blue Origin/Lockheed/Boeing Cislunar Transporter operational reusable LEO-to-lunar-orbit cargo systempre #1 · pending · 2030-01-16 — First in-cislunar-orbit satellite manufacturing demonstration (microsat assembly from staged components in Lunar Gatewaycascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-24 — Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminentpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major-country (US, EU, China, UK) issues formal AI pause framework conditional on capability thresholdpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Frontier lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/DeepMind) publicly invokes pause clause in compute scaling commitment letterpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Industry consensus capability evaluation (METR, AISI, Apollo) flags 'verge of superintelligence' threshold metpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — International AI safety treaty negotiations include Bostromian 'optimal timing' framing in formal diplomatic textcascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI inference cost falls >=900x per million tokens since 2023pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Top economist publicly cites Jevons Paradox to explain AI labor expansionpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — AI capex spend approaches $650-725B in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI inference industry spend exceeds $50B in 2026 (Jevons rebound)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — BEA productivity statistics show >=2% annualized labor productivity growth sustained 6+ quarterspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — AI fluency becomes formal performance review criterion at Fortune 500pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI-native employee compensation premium emerges in salary surveyscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Antivirus / EDR vendor launches AI-agent-monitoring productpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Government 'defense agent' or AI-monitoring program fundedcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Tesla solar manufacturing capacity announcement substantiated with permitspre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — SpaceX commits public solar manufacturing capacity beyond Starlink supplypre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Tesla US solar PV production reaches 10 GW/year run ratepre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Tesla and SpaceX reach combined 100 GW/year US solar manufacturing capacitycascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Starship V3 reaches 100+ ton LEO payload demonstrated capacitypre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Starship V3 enters repeatedly-flying cadence (>=10 flights in 12 months)pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.pre #3 · pending · 2028-11-14 — First Mars uncrewed Starship transit attempt (2028 transfer window)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First non-NASA private crew booking on Starship lunar/cis-lunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #4 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Hydrogen lithography APM commercialized by Quantum Silicon / Zyvex Labspre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — DARPA / DOE issues APM grant program with explicit compute-fabrication funding linepre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First space-based manufacturing demonstration uses atomic-layer-deposition in microgravitycascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-05 — AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterprispre #4 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labspre #3 · pending · 2026-08-14 — Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Amazon Leo crosses 500 satellites in orbitpre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Amazon Leo commercial consumer service launches (mid-2026 target)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Starlink + Amazon Leo together hold >85% of LEO broadband subscribers (duopoly)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Fed delivers first rate cut in current cyclepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Capex on AI/robotics rises while corporate hiring slowspre #2 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Public co. earnings calls cite agent/robot purchases substituting hirespre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Humanoid robot unit shipments cross 100K annual run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Net hiring vs robot/agent-deployment gap visible in macro datacascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — No new foundation-model entrant launches a frontier-tier product after raising <$2Bcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SSI publishes first technical paper or capability demonstration (currently zero public artifacts as of 2026)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — SSI valuation crosses $100B OR shuts down/sells (binary outcome on Sutskever pulling it off)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — If SSI succeeds: industry-wide pivot to 'synthetic reasoning + specialized TPUs' away from data-hungry scalingcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS or McKinsey reports US manufacturing labor share continues secular decline through 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-13 — By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First production deployment of robot-built-robot manufacturing line by Figure or Teslapre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public AI lab discloses first frontier model trained primarily by AI-generated data and AI-driven curriculumcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major peer-reviewed paper claims AI-driven 'overnight' breakthrough in materials or chemistry comparable to AlphaFoldpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Multiple Nobel/Turing laureates publicly endorse 'AI flattens disciplines' framingpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI-discovered drug clears Phase III for a major diseasecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First room-temperature superconductor or near-room-temperature material independently replicated via AI-discovery pipelipre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI-discovered drug or material reaches FDA approval / commercial production milestonecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Fortune 500 AI-reskilling adoption rate reaches 60%+ of major companiespre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Skill-intelligence platforms replace traditional LMS at scalecascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — K-12 / university curricula formally pivot to AI-native skillscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Major 60+ year liberal-arts institution closure (Hampshire College, May 2026)pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia worst-case model triggerspre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Demographic-cliff enrollment drop materializes (>15% by 2029)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — First flagship state university announces material program / campus closurecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Alpha School expands to Charlotte, Raleigh, and 3+ additional metrospre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Independent peer-reviewed RCT confirms ≥2x learning rate from AI mastery tutoring vs controlpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Top-3 US public school district pilots mastery-based AI tutoring at scale (≥10K students)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Liemandt launches Timeback / EdTech licensing platform for AI-native schoolspre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Public demo: AI tutor brings non-reading 4-year-old to fluent reading in <=6 monthspre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Trilogy / Liemandt deprecates human reading specialists for pre-K cohortpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Independent K-12 study validates AI-bootstrapped reading for ages 4-5cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: state-level pilot adopts AI-tutor reading curriculum for pre-Kcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Khanmigo + Synthesis Tutor + Alpha School deliver real-time personality-driven AI tutorspre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Custom-personality voice tutor available (configurable celebrity/style voice)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Independent study confirms learning gains from personality-driven AI tutorscascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Major LMS integration (Canvas/Google Classroom) ships avatar-tutor modulecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First credible on-device education-grade LLM (sub-7B params) achieves curriculum-tutor qualitypre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Liemandt's Trilogy / Alpha-school style program publishes per-student token cost <$1K/yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Apple / Google / Qualcomm announces on-device education-grade NPU optimization stackpre #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — K-12 AI tutoring deployment crosses 1M-student threshold with on-device-first architecturecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-01 — First independent (non-Alpha-owned) school launches on Timeback platformpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Timeback platform commercially available to homeschoolers by 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-17 — Influencer-packaged motivational learning bundle announcedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Timeback platform launches as Alpha's commercial education enginecascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Public press coverage names specific game-designer collaboratorscascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Game-based learning module ships with named designer creditcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Bundle uptake measured: enrollment in non-Alpha-school Timeback pilotscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First nation-scale AI tutoring rollout (~1M students) commissionedpre #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Peer-reviewed RCT shows AI-tutoring effect-size > 1 sigma in K-12pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First G20 ministry of education issues formal AI-tutoring procurement frameworkpre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Cascade: large-scale teacher-displacement labor disclosurescascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Waymo expands to Philadelphia + 5 additional metros, fleet >5000 robotaxispre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Frontline rideshare driver job count contracts ≥30% in robotaxi-enabled metros (cumulative 2026-2028)cascade #1 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #2 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-04 — Alpha School operates 13 campuses nationwidepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Teachers union files material legal challenge to AI-driven modelcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Alpha announces additional campuses for 2027 academic yearcascade #3 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Public-school district pilots Alpha-style 2-Hour Learning modelcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Executives report 40% of workforce needs reskilling within 3 yearspre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cisco-style industry consensus: >=90% of tech roles require AI reskillingpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — IBM commits to skill 2M people in AI by end of 2026pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Federal/state workforce reskilling program reaches >=1M enrolleescascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-04 — Alpha School tuition pricing benchmark crosses $40K-$55K rangepre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Alpha School enrollment crosses 2,000 studentspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Alpha School secures additional venture funding round at >$1B valuationpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — NCES private K-12 spending data confirms ≥$50B annual marketcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Alpha School publicly announces formal RCT protocol with IRB approvalpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Timeback enrollment reaches 100K studentspre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First-stage RCT (10K-50K students) results publishedpre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Million-student RCT enrollment beginscascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Million-student RCT primary endpoint readoutcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefupre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Alpha School scales 'Time Back' AI tutor platform to additional schoolspre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Liemandt's $1B commitment funds sub-$1,000 device deployment to scalepre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mainstream LLM lab releases closed-loop RL tutoring productpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Closed-loop AI tutor matches/exceeds human instructor on rigorous benchmarkscascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — India overtakes Japan to become 4th largest nominal GDP economypre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — India contribution to global GDP growth crosses 20% (vs ~17% in 2024)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — China nominal GDP growth turns negative in any single quarterpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — FT/Economist cover narrative: 'India century' replaces 'Chinese century'pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — India overtakes Germany to become 3rd largest nominal GDP economycascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Frontier model achieves >=50% on a credible multi-domain 'do everything' agent benchmark (METR HCAST, GAIA hard, OSWorldpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI agent autonomously completes a multi-week real-world commercial project end-to-end without human intervention beyond pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Enterprise AI agent production deployment crosses 50% of large enterprises (Fortune 1000)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Anthropic, OpenAI, or DeepMind publicly declares 'AGI achieved' or equivalent capability milestonepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Anthropic revenue run-rate exceeds $50B annualized (consistent with $1T-by-2030 trajectory)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — BLS or Treasury attributes a measurable fraction (>0.5pp) of unemployment to AI displacement in official reportcascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — First open-source globally distributed RL training run of >=100B parameter model completes successfullypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Non-US sovereign nation announces national AI training compute initiative (>=10K H100-equivalent GPUs) outside Five Eyespre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major geopolitical commentator or government white paper explicitly frames training-vs-inference centralization as a strpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Open-source model trained on heterogeneous federated GPU pool reaches GPT-4-class performance on standardized evalpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First retrospective op-ed by major AI policy figure asks 'why was training so centralized'cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-10-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mistral ARR crosses $1B annual run-ratepre #4 · pending · 2027-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Mistral launches consumer/enterprise vertically-integrated stack (model + cloud + apps)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Mistral valued >=€30B in next funding round, Europe's first AI decacorn at OpenAI scalepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-17 — Kevin Weil departs OpenAI — original 100-Nobels champion exits, OpenAI for Science decentralizedpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI for Science 'Prism' general availability or successor product launchpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First peer-reviewed Nobel-class result published with explicit AI co-attributionpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Nobel ceremony explicitly cites AI partnership in award rationalepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pentagon issues amended supply-chain-risk determination on Anthropicpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-22 — Anthropic announces revised DoD-acceptable usage policy or Claude Mythos govt-tierpre #1 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Court ruling in Anthropic v. Trump administration (March 2026 lawsuit)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic re-included in classified-network or DoD prototype contractcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Permanent two-track regime: Anthropic on commercial side, OpenAI/Google on DoDcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Replicator delivers thousands of autonomous units (vs hundreds 2025)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI weapons score combat-relevant decisive engagement edge in major war gamepre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — First fully autonomous (lethal) AI weapon authorized for usecascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic blacklist resolved or escalatedpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Pentagon awards new classified AI contract specifying values/alignment requirementspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Executive order on AI cultural alignment / non-person-entity standardspre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Frontier lab introduces government-only model variant with custom value alignmentpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Congressional hearing or legislation on AI cultural-values government controlcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.cascade #6 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ~$40B run rate as of late April 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Anthropic crosses $100B annualized revenue run ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Anthropic IPO or public valuation disclosure at $1T+ market cappre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Anthropic crosses $300B ARR (intermediate trillion-trajectory check)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2028-02-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2028-05-01 — First trillion-dollar IPO closes at >$1T fully dilutedpre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First public company breaches $20T market cappre #3 · pending · 2028-12-15 — S&P 500 total market cap doubles from 2026 baselinepre #2 · pending · 2029-02-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — First public firm crosses $50T market cappre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — SpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGARpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor eventpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Cascade: SpaceX completes IPO and lists on NYSE/NASDAQcascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI IPO target window slips beyond Nov 2026 per CFO statementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic files confidential or public S-1 with SECcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Pure-play AI vendor (Cohere/Mistral/Perplexity) revenue stays <$35B aggregate 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Enterprise AI revenue exceeds consumer AI revenue 3:1 across hyperscalerspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI capex-to-revenue ratio compresses or hyperscaler stock multiple resetspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Codex gains long-horizon scheduling and self-wakeup capabilitypre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — GPT-5.5 1M-token context window enables full-codebase agentic refactorspre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Competing labs ship coding agents matching or exceeding GPT-5.5 by mid-2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pre-2026 coding agents publicly characterized as obsolete by GPT-5.5 era developerscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 codenamed 'Spud' (first ground-up retrain)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API with measurable benchmark gainspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — GPT-5.5 daily active users surpass 1B in ChatGPTcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-6 or equivalent next-base announced by OpenAIcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Recursive Superintelligence startup funding signalpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cascade: AI capability gains compress to <60-day cyclescascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Hyperscaler annual capex reaches $725B in 2026 (~$1.99B/day)pre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Combined hyperscaler annual capex exceeds $1T (~$2.7B/day) in any single yearpre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First AI-spend pause or reduction by 2+ hyperscalers (recession trigger)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Power constraints become binding limit on AI capex (not capital)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Daily AI spend reaches $3-5B/day thresholdcascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Hyperscaler annual capex reaches $3-4T (~$8-11B/day) per Nvidia's 2030 forecastcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-11-16 — OpenAI device pre-order or developer program openspre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First OpenAI consumer device ships to customerscascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: smart-glasses / lamp follow-on devices on roadmap for 2028+cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PwC ChatGPT Enterprise reseller volume scales as Big-4 AI revenue linepre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Big-4 + MBB collective AI investment crosses $15B cumulativepre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI consulting division pressures Big-4 advisory pricingpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Accenture AI Refinery client count crosses 5,000 enterprisescascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Big-4 advisory revenue grows >=20% YoY driven by AI transformation contractscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Big Four publicly disclose AI agent doing audit work (workpaper generation / variance analysis)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Big Four audit-tech headcount reduction >=50% from 2024 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — PCAOB or SEC publishes guidance on AI-assisted audit reliancecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-29 — OSWorld leader exceeds human baseline by 10pppre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Multimodal vision/humor capability matches human-grader pass ratecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major rent-a-human platform deprecates humor/visual scoring taskscascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Human-as-graders gig economy contracts >30% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-19 — VITARI pre-orders open H1 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First VITARI commercial shipment in H2 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent customer benchmarks confirm $100/genome at >=Q30 90%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — State-level lab-grown meat bans repealed or struck downpre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cultivated meat production cost falls below $20/lb wholesalepre #3 · pending · 2028-04-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cultivated meat captures >1% of US ground meat retail dollarspre #6 · hit · 2024-11-01 — Smithsonian + frontier research consensus: Mars colony food likely lab-grown meat / cell-cultured / plant-based, not livpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — SpaceX 2026/27 Mars cargo window — uncrewed Starship Mars cargo attemptpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — International space-law / planetary-protection guidance bans live-animal foodstock transitcascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — SpaceX / NASA 2028/29 expanded launch window — manifest disclosurepre #6 · hit · 2026-02-19 — Progressive stock down 45% and Allstate down 50%+ from start of 2025pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US private auto insurance direct-written premiums decline YoY for first time since 2019pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Major P&C insurer announces material auto-insurance business divestiture or runoffpre #6 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Robotaxis serve 1%+ of US passenger-milespre #3 · pending · 2028-10-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Major analyst (McKinsey, RethinkX, ARK, BCG) revises baseline AV fleet forecast to 50M or fewer US vehiclespre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — US passenger vehicle fleet declines for 2 consecutive yearscascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-16 — US fleet drops to 20M or fewer passenger vehiclespre #6 · hit · 2024-12-31 — Humanoid robot market sized at $1.55B in 2024 (Grand View Research baseline)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Tesla / Figure / 1X cumulative humanoid units exceed 1 millioncascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid plus automation TAM revised to $1T+ by major analystcascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Humanoid plus automation market hits $50T (Musk's claim)cascade #3 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Humanoid plus general automation market reaches $15B (MarketsandMarkets 2030 forecast)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS unemployment rate spikes >=1% YoY in white-collar BLS occupational categoriespre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Personal bankruptcy filings rise >=25% YoY (Yang's predicted second-order effect)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Cascade: First major US political party adopts UBI-like policy plank in 2028 cyclepre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Aggregate white-collar headcount in S&P 500 declines >=10% from 2025 peakcascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · hit · 2026-03-28 — Sustained tear-gas dispersals at protests in major US citiespre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Political-violence assassination event during 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Protest momentum carries through 2027–2028 election cyclepre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: AI pause beginning 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Stimson/Time Top-10 Global Risks for 2026 confirms multiple civilizational disruption vectorspre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — PRC Taiwan-readiness deadline reaffirmed for 2027pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-enabled disinformation campaign against Taiwan election documented at state-actor scalepre #2 · pending · 2027-12-01 — >=1 major civilizational shock resolves in 2027-2028 window (kinetic, AI-political, financial)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Taiwan kinetic conflict or quarantine eventcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Office vacancy rates in top-25 US metros remain elevated (>15%) as AI restructures white-collar workpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Data-center real estate becomes #1 institutional CRE investment category by capital deployedpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Median US existing-home price posts year-over-year decline for first time in a decadepre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Suburban Class-B office buildings begin systematic conversion-or-demolition wavepre #1 · pending · 2028-05-08 — Major REIT writes down >=20% of office portfolio in single quarter citing AI-driven demand collapsecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Sotheby's 2026 Luxury Outlook flags rural / destination luxury as outperformerpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PwC ULI 2026 Emerging Trends ranks tier-2 / destination markets above gateway citiespre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Resort/destination luxury markets (Aspen, Jackson, Sun Valley, Hamptons) appreciate >5% YoYpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Manhattan trophy condo prices stagnate or decline in 2026pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Sun Belt secondary luxury markets (Nashville, Salt Lake City, San Diego) maintain stable to rising prices through 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Census Bureau or Brookings 2026 report on rural-population growth from net-migrationpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Starlink residential subscriber base crosses 10Mpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla FSD V14 unsupervised certification in 5+ states / national rolloutpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Office vacancy / urban CRE distress remains >20% in major US metroscascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Confirmed reversal: rural growth + urban decline visible in 2027 census revisionscascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · partial · 2026-04-22 — AI-driven discovery of new physics in dusty plasma (April 2026)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Major AI lab (DeepMind/Anthropic/OpenAI) publishes claim of meaningful progress on a Millennium Problem or Standard Modecascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Public consensus among physicists shifts to AI co-authoring on Nobel-class resultcascade #2 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Run-out-of-physics threshold check (Q4 2030)cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OASI trust fund exhaustion projection holds at FY2032pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI displacement layoffs cross 100,000 cumulative since 2024cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Brookings/IMF/McKinsey publish AI payroll-tax-base shrinkage estimatecascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal robot/AI tax legislation introduced in Congresscascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — OASI trust fund exhaustion accelerated to <FY2030 in Trustees Reportpre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind) announce reduced power-projection scenariospre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Triplet-superconductor / zero-loss compute breakthrough demonstrated at scalepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Starcloud / Lockheed Starshield orbital data-center constellation reaches construction milestonepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Wissner-Gross / Bezos / Musk public revision of moon-disassembly thesiscascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Fusion or thorium SMR power-density breakthrough commercially announcedpre #6 · hit · 2025-11-15 — Palo Alto Networks declares 2026 'Year of the Defender' with autonomous AIpre #5 · pending · 2026-03-17 — Major ransomware attack attributed to LLM-driven adversarypre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI security spend overtakes traditional SIEM/SOAR spendcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-11-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Crosby and ≥3 'agentic AI law firms' in Lupl 'AI Law Firms to Watch' establish recurring contract-review revenuepre #4 · pending · 2027-05-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major newsroom or wire service deploys autonomous AI agents producing >25% of published bylinespre #2 · pending · 2027-12-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major bank or asset manager deploys autonomous AI agents executing trades >$100M/daypre #5 · pending · 2026-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Tesla Optimus or competitor humanoid robot demonstrated performing autonomous construction-like task on simulated lunar/pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — NASA, ESA, or commercial partner announces formal contract for humanoid-robot lunar surface construction servicescascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — SpaceX Starship cargo mission to Mars launch attempt with humanoid robots aboardcascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — SpaceX uncrewed Lunar Starship lands successfully near Shackleton Cratercascade #3 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First habitable structure (>1 person, >7 days endurance) erected on lunar surfacepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS librariescascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase averagecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisiscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic/OpenAI ship general-purpose agentic 'planner' product to consumerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Enterprise AI 'meeting orchestrator' enters general availabilitycascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major dating-app integrates LLM-driven match orchestrationcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-mediated introductions surface in published user researchcascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Compute supply (Broadcom TPUs + AWS Trainium + Nvidia GPUs) for Anthropic exceeds 5GW dedicatedpre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Anthropic crosses $500B annualized revenue run ratepre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO disclosure of audited annual revenue >=$200Bpre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Anthropic surpasses $1T annual revenue (definitive event)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-04 — Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-24 — AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.cascade #6 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — First company crosses $10T market cappre #5 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Top company net income annualized run rate crosses $300Bpre #2 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First non-US sovereign or private firm mentioned in $10T speculationpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — $100T market cap threshold first appears in consensus analyst notecascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First company crosses $20T market cappre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Cumulative tech layoffs since 2020 cross 1 millionpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major federal AI consumer-protection regulation proposedpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — U-3 unemployment rate crosses 5.5%cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 ships as new leading AI modelpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 ships at 1 trillion parameterspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs shift narrative away from raw parameters toward reasoning computecascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — 100x raw parameter growth claim verified or refuted via 2026 disclosurescascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — TIME publishes warning on AI WMD security gappre #5 · hit · 2026-02-14 — King's College study: AI escalates to nuclear signaling in 95% of crisespre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — End-of-2026 milestone: AI agent demonstrably enables 'any virus' designcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Colorado AI Act (SB 24-205) takes effect imposing duty of care on high-risk AI systemspre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — 5+ states pass binding AI workforce/employment laws by year-end 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI Workforce PREPARE Act (S.3339) advances out of Senate committeepre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Congress passes a comprehensive federal AI law in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI-related crisis or major harm event triggers reactive emergency legislationcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlycascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — District court reaches summary judgment or trial verdict on Anthropic's claimspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Circuit court (9th or DC) issues appellate ruling on supply chain risk designationcascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Cascade: Final resolution (settlement, SCOTUS denial, or final appellate ruling) ~3 years from filingcascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic ships built-in tool-use / native MCP-like capability in baseline Claudecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI deprecates or downgrades the third-party GPT/plugin marketplacecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major model release ships with tools that subsume top-N marketplace appscascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Plugin developer ecosystem revenue declines or consolidatescascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Digital twin sector funding sees 600%+ YoY surgepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PE firms raise dedicated AI/digital-transformation fundscascade #2 · hit · 2026-02-25 — Tech M&A boom rolls through 2026 with PE-led AI dealscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First specific PE-AI digital twin acquisition of mid-cap targetcascade #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Portfolio company demonstrates 3-5x cost collapse through AIcascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Meta cuts 8,000 employees at $35B+ AI capex (2026 large-cap pivot attempt)pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — ≥3 of top-10 incumbent retailers/banks/automakers go through CEO ouster citing AI strategy failurecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Foundation model release cadence: ≥3 frontier model releases per quarter (cycle <90 days)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Single-week tech-sector market cap swings ≥$500B become routine (≥4 occurrences in calendar year)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Average startup time-to-$1M-ARR drops below 6 months (vs 30+ months historical)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google headline frontier-model token prices fall 60-80% YoYpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Same-capability constant-quality token cost falls >=10x in a single yearpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hyperscaler GPU rental prices (H100/H200/B200) fall >=50% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-4-class capability available on a sub-$0.10/MTok input modelcascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Cumulative 2-year (2025->2027) constant-capability cost reduction reaches 1,600x (40x squared)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Open-weights 30-40B model matches GPT-5 on aggregated benchmarkspre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Sub-10B parameter model achieves prior-frontier (GPT-4 class) performancepre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier-quality 1-2B parameter model demonstratedcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — Million-parameter narrow-domain model matches frontier in verticalcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC (early April 2026)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX targets $1.75T-$2T valuation; $75B raisecascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — SpaceX road show begins June 8, 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-15 — SpaceX prices and lists shares; first-day open vs offer pricecascade #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Largest IPO in history: SpaceX raises >$50Bcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO listingcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Last private secondary or tender at >=$700B post-money valuationcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenAI announces lead underwriters for IPOcascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-ratecascade #5 · pending · 2026-12-30 — OpenAI prices IPO at >=$1T fully diluted valuationcascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: OpenAI listing triggers wave of AI lab IPO filings (Anthropic, xAI, Mistral)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major chain (≥3 of top-10) deploys robotic kitchen automation productionpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — First chain announces humanoid robots replacing crew positions in US storepre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Fast food labor headcount declines ≥3% YoY in BLS data citing automationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Figure ships first humanoid robots into consumer/home iterationpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First QSR chain announces multi-store humanoid VLA deployment with operational task scopepre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — VLA model class achieves >90% task success rate on standardized restaurant task benchmarkpre #1 · pending · 2029-02-14 — First QSR labor displacement disclosure (>500 jobs) attributed to humanoid automationcascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Zipline crosses 10 million cumulative deliveries (5x growth from 2026 base)pre #1 · pending · 2029-02-14 — Zipline daily delivery rate crosses 100,000/day (representing path to 1/sec milestone)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Stargate Abilene flagship reaches ~1 GW operational capacity by mid-2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Hyperscaler announces single-site data center campus exceeding 5 GWpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-31 — First federal AI-grid coordination policy or grid-emergency order issuedpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — US AI data center power demand reaches ~30 GW incremental by end of 2027pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adcascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-26 — Aggregate US data center load passes 100 GW by 2029cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-06-22 — Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredpre #5 · pending · 2026-08-30 — We are currently in AI hard takeoffpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First hyperscaler 'energy island' commercial site comes online (self-sufficient bypass of public grid)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Data-center capacity oversupply emerges (rents flatten/decline)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-15 — First publicly-disclosed 'free electricity to nearby community' deal from a data center campuspre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — US grid power tied to data-center captive generation crosses 100 GWcascade #1 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Hyperscaler custom-silicon deployment crosses majority of new capacitypre #4 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Nvidia gross margin guides below 70% for any quarterpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sustained sell-through despite margin compression (chips-still-sell signal)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AMD MI400-class or Intel Gaudi-4 wins major hyperscaler orderpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Sell-side downgrade specifically citing margin sustainabilitycascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Snap North America DAU declines 4 consecutive quarterspre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Snap loses primary advertising-platform tier classification at major agenciespre #2 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Snap acquired or taken private (M&A or PE buyout)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-30 — Snap stock falls below $5 (existential-threat threshold)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 Q1 funding alone reaches ~$1.94B aggregatepre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Mega-round (>=$200M) in longevity therapeutics announced in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q1 2026 longevity funding rounds disclose mid-year totalscascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First IPO or major exit by longevity-pure-play in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — 2026 full-year longevity VC reaches $12B floorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Diamandis Abundance360 Longevity Trip 2026 confirms market thesispre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major pharma cap-ex reallocation toward longevity / aging programspre #4 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First aging-as-disease ICD-11 code adoption by major payorpre #3 · pending · 2030-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-04-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-30 — First Big Pharma >$5B acquisition explicitly framed as 'longevity' enters announcedpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — First senolytic candidate hits Phase 3 readoutpre #3 · pending · 2028-01-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-20 — Three or more top-15 pharmas publicly disclose longevity-asset acquisitionspre #1 · pending · 2028-06-30 — FDA grants formal qualified guidance on aging biomarker for clinical trial endpointscascade #1 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — EH216-S debut sightseeing flight in downtown Shanghai (Huangpu River / Longhua Airport)pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AutoFlight Prosperity 5-passenger eVTOL achieves CAAC airworthiness certificationpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Multi-city Chinese eVTOL taxi commercial revenue services operational across ≥3 hubspre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — China launches 100+ commercial low-altitude flight applications under 2024-2027 Action Plancascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Smartphone shipments rebound in unit terms YoYpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple AI-native iPhone or major OS overhaul announcementpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — OpenAI-Qualcomm-MediaTek AI-first phone reaches developer/previewpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — 2nm NPU-class SoC launches across Apple/Qualcomm/MediaTek/Googlecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Average smartphone ASP rises driven by NPU-rich SKUscascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Apple WWDC 2026 keynote scheduled and confirmedpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-10 — WWDC 2026 keynote demos AI-powered Siri or 'Apple Intelligence v2' powered by Geminipre #1 · pending · 2026-06-11 — iOS 27 developer beta with new Siri / Gemini features ships at WWDCcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Cascade: Public Siri/Gemini release ships in iOS 27 GA in September 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Apple's Gemini-Siri reaches >100M users active in first quarter post-releasecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Shutterstock-Getty merger receives final UK regulatory approvalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — First major brand campaign uses 100% AI-generated commercial imagerycascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Major commercial photography agency announces revenue decline >25% YoY citing AIcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Industry trade group estimates >40% commercial photographer income loss YoYcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Frontier paper proposes unified AR + diffusion architecturepre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Production model ships with hybrid AR-diffusion stackpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Benchmark superiority of unified model on multimodal taskscascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Open-source unified architecture release (HF/Meta-style)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-22 — Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-24 — Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei).cascade #5 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — GSA AI clause GSAR 552.239-7001 finalized and adopted into MAS contractspre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — USAi (federal common AI environment) reaches >=20 federal agency userspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — DoD/VA/HHS combined AI-related contract obligations exceed $20B/yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — FDA approves first AI-as-medical-device for autonomous diagnostic use without clinician sign-offpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Veterans Affairs AI claims/benefits processing achieves >=50% automation ratecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic preempted $50B raise at $850-900B valuation (April 2026)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Anthropic IPO or first public valuation milestone ($1T+)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Quadrillion-dollar valuation framing receives mainstream financial-press coveragepre #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Frontier-AI sector P/E reaches narrative-extreme multiple (10,000x+ on a major name)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI lists at >=$60B raise / ~$1T valuationpre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — First-day pop documentedpre #1 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — S-1 lock-up period scheduled (typical 180 days)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — First post-IPO earnings releasecascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — 6-month post-IPO close vs. offer price (pop measurement window closes)cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — DoD/DoW classification framework for AI labs publishedpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Anthropic files legal/administrative challenge to classificationpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Initial ruling or injunction in Anthropic challengecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Final ruling on classification challengecascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Nvidia reaches $4.3T market cap, largest in S&P 500 (~7.0% weight)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Hyperscaler AI capex hits $725B annual run rate in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — AI sector market cap reaches 50%+ share of US public marketcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Robotaxi fleet exceeds 10K vehicles in commercial paid US servicepre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First major US e-commerce platform discloses >50% AI-agent purchase volumepre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — ACP / agent-commerce protocols become default checkout in top-10 platformscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Digital AI Omnibus deferral negotiation outcomepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act high-risk obligations enter into application August 2, 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — G7 / G20 publish coordinated AI governance frameworkcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Chinese-origin frontier model achieves frontier capability (Gemini 3 / GPT-5.5 parity)cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US executive order or Congress passes federal AI governance baselinecascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Senior Anthropic or OpenAI policy lead takes federal AI regulatory rolepre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Federal AI oversight body or self-regulatory body formally establishedpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Ex-frontier-lab person returns from government to labcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First US state or major economy passes UBI bill above $500/monthpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AI-driven white-collar layoffs accelerate in BLS / Challenger reportscascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Large-scale labor unrest event (>10,000 participants) tied to AI displacementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Federal pilot program or executive order on automation transition assistancecascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — OECD-wide social-insurance reform debate accelerates beyond 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 60% of hiring managers planning AI-driven layoffs in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 30% of companies planning AI-driven layoffs (McKinsey state-of-AI)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-attributed layoffs cross 200K in 2026 single yearcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Autonomous coding agents handle full PR cycle (test + fix + refactor) at scalepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI 2027 forecast tracking: pace remains within 50-150% of predicted trajectorypre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Goldman Sachs / IMF models start showing AI-driven GDP boost in 2027 forecastspre #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Frontier training runs reach 2e28 FLOP scale (~1000x GPT-4)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Superintelligence takeoff signals (sustained recursive self-improvement claims)cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 30-month sustained contraction in white-collar payrolls (continuation of 29-mo trend)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic Economic Index quarterly update shows entry-level white-collar exposure wideningpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate for college grads age 22-25 crosses 6%pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Big-four consultancy or top law firm announces >25% reduction in entry-level hiring classpre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — If thesis right: US headline unemployment crosses 7% during 2028-2030cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Giving Pledge attrition continues — second AI-era billionaire publicly exitspre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI founder net worth crosses $200B (Altman/Huang/Musk-class)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Aggregate AI-founder philanthropic commitments cross $100Bcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 US real GDP grows at 2.0% annual ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Q4 2026 BEA release confirms nominal GDP per capita >=$88,000pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Real GDP per capita growth runs >=1.5% annual through 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Nominal GDP per capita crosses $100,000pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Musk publicly affirms $100T SpaceX possibilitypre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — First trillionaire — Musk net worth crosses $1Tpre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Multi-trillionaire (>=2 individuals at $1T) — cascadecascade #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First $100T market cap company — full prediction realizationpre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly-announced billionaire-funded regional cash-transfer program in their home metro (>=$50M committed, >=10,0pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Yang/Humanity Forward expands philanthropic UBI footprint past Hudson/Denver pilots into >=5 new citiespre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — At least three additional billionaire-backed local UBI/GBI programs announced in same year as the firstpre #3 · pending · 2028-01-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Federal/state legislator cites billionaire-backed regional UBI as model in introduced legislationpre #1 · pending · 2028-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Independent/third-party 2028 candidate polls >=10% in head-to-head three-way matchuppre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — No Labels, Forward Party, Libertarians, or new party announces 2028 ballot strategy in >=30 statescascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-31 — High-profile non-major-party candidate qualifies for first general election debatecascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-31 — Independent/third-party 2028 candidate appears on >=40 state ballots (general election)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-11-26 — Cascade: Independent/third-party 2028 candidate captures >=5% of national popular votecascade #4 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Independent or third-party candidate FEC filings exceed 100 by EOY 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Major-network poll shows independent candidate at 15%+ in 2028 head-to-headcascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Independent candidate qualifies for general-election presidential debatecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee finalizes 2028 Democratic primary calendarpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — 3 or more leading 2028 Democratic candidates skip Iowa during pre-primary yearpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — 2028 Iowa Democratic event count below 50 percent of 2020 cycle baselinecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Meta cuts 10% of workforce (~8,000) starting May 20, 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Big Freeze: 32%+ of companies plan AI-driven headcount reductioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Total 2026 mass layoffs cross 1.5M with AI cited in >10%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: white-collar U-3 unemployment crosses 4.5% by mid-2027pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — College wage premium narrows below 70% (vs ~80% baseline)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Young-worker (22-25) employment in AI-exposed jobs falls ≥15%pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI-attributed tech layoffs cross 100K cumulative 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Mass-mobilization protest tied to AI/automation displacementpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — State or federal UBI / wage-insurance bill introduced citing AI displacementcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — RobotLAB / industry consensus: commercial robot plumber 'by end of decade'pre #5 · pending · 2026-05-02 — 1X Neo housekeeper at $20K reaches consumer marketpre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Humanoid dexterous-manipulation benchmark fails plumbing taskspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-01 — First commercially viable humanoid trades robot reaches marketcascade #2 · pending · 2030-08-16 — BLS HVAC employment grows 8% (2024-2034) per official projectionpre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major data-center operator (Equinix, Digital Realty, AWS, Microsoft, Google) announces robotics-assisted construction pipre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Boston Dynamics, Figure, Agility, or Apptronik secures multi-million-dollar data-center construction contractpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Hyperscaler (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta) discloses humanoid-robot deployment in earnings call or sustainability reportpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public video / press tour shows >2 humanoid robots performing distinct construction tasks at one data-center sitepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Construction industry analyst report quantifies labor-substitution by humanoid robots in tier-1 verticalscascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Robotics-built data center reaches commissioningpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS occupational employment survey shows ≥3% drop in white-collar OES categoriespre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Unemployment rate rises ≥1.5pp from 4.1% baselinepre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Major commercial real-estate vacancy spike (>25% Class-A office)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — 20-50% of 70M office workers displaced (resolution criterion)cascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Office vacancy concentrated in oldest buildings (10% own >60% vacancy)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major office REIT files Chapter 11 or restructures debtcascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major US city converts >=10% of CBD office stock to residential or alternative usecascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-30 — Office-using employment growth essentially flat or negative through 2030cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Recent-graduate unemployment rises faster than overall workforce (2x)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Suburban high-end inventory rises >=20% YoY in NYC peninsula/CA Bay suburbspre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Westchester median home price declines >=5% YoY (Yang's thesis fires)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Mortgage Professional / NAR cite white-collar AI layoffs as primary driver of suburban downturnpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Major HBCU files Chapter 11 bankruptcypre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of US colleges with D-grade financial health exceeds 200pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Multi-college bankruptcy in 2026: at least 8 colleges closed by year-endpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Annual closure count rises to >=25 by 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-30 — Demographic cliff produces >=10% undergraduate enrollment decline 2025-2029cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-11 — FHA delinquency rate breaches 11% (highest since 2021)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Aggregate household debt crosses $19T by mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Cascade: regional bank credit-loss provisions rise YoY by 25%+cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Low-income zip 90+ DPD rate exceeds 3.5% by year-end 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-12 — MIT Technology Review names AI companions a breakthrough technologypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI companion market hits $500B+ sizecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Regulatory backlash and harm-reduction laws emergecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public polling shows >=70% Americans want AI 'more regulated'pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — $42B broadband funds conditioned on state AI regulation repealpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — MAGA / Republican defection from federal AI deregulationcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-03-09 — AI capex contributes 30 percent or more of US 2026 GDP growthpre #5 · pending · 2027-04-30 — S&P 500 AI-exposed stocks outperform broad index by 30 percent or more over 24 monthspre #4 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Goldman Sachs confirms AI productivity uplift inflection in 2027pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative GenAI value creation reaches McKinsey 2.6T-4.4T USD annual rangepre #6 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Larry Fink/BlackRock CEO publicly warns AI deepening wealth gappre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — S&P 500 firms reduce headcount while productivity risescascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Capital share of GDP exceeds 65% in advanced economiescascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — World Bank WDR 2026 'AI for Development' published with poverty-impact frameworkpre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First country deploys AI-driven cash-transfer or geospatial-targeting program at scale (>5M beneficiaries)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Global extreme poverty rate drops below 9.5% per World Bank PovcalNet updatepre #3 · pending · 2027-11-16 — AI-tool penetration in low-income agricultural extension services exceeds 25%pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Sub-Saharan Africa poverty rate stagnant or rising despite AI rolloutpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no >5M-beneficiary AI poverty program launches by end-2027, 'chance of fixing' becomes generouscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — U.S. labor productivity growth turns positive ≥2% YoYcascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major economic forecaster (IMF, OECD, World Bank) raises GDP forecast citing AIcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — S&P 500 earnings growth exceeds 15% YoYcascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI-attributable contribution to GDP growth quantified by economistspre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US CPI peaks at >=5% YoY before sustained decline below 2%pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal UBI/cash-transfer enacted at scale >=$500B/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Money-supply growth (M2) acceleration >=10% YoYpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-driven goods deflation observable in tradable goods CPI subcomponentpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Robotics-driven labor cost decline: humanoid+industrial robot deployment >=500K units cumulative USpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Top-quintile household services spending share rises ≥20%pre #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Personal-care + private-household occupations grow ≥15% vs 2024 baselinecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First major economist publishes AI-driven hyperinflation frameworkpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US M2 / debt monetization signal — fiscal dominance proxypre #4 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation — opposite outcome (negation watch)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — US headline CPI exceeds 8% sustained for 12+ monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First public utility tariff approved that explicitly directs hyperscaler-funded grid surplus to subsidize residential bipre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First hyperscaler announces free or discounted electricity/services bundle for nearby residential consumerspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — US data center electricity share crosses 9% of national demand (EPRI midpoint)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Number of S&P 500 CEOs publicly citing AI as reason for own/peer departure crosses 10pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Conference Board / WEF report explicitly ranks CEO role as latest-to-automatepre #3 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Mid/junior management automation rate exceeds CEO automation rate in BLS or McKinsey studypre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — First public-listed company appoints AI as named co-CEO or 'AI CEO' rolepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — If middle-management displacement >25% but CEO turnover normal by Q4 2027, claim hits earlycascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber commits >$1B capital to robotaxi fleet purchasespre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gridwise reports ≥10% rideshare driver earnings drop in AV citiespre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber CEO formally guides drivers as transition risk in 10K filingpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Robotaxi share crosses 8% of US ridehail marketcascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Robotaxi displacement of frontline driving jobs reaches 20% in test citiescascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Tesla begins underwriting its own AV insurance policiespre #5 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major OEM publicly accepts AV product liability when autonomous mode engagedpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Dual-layer insurance structure becomes industry standardpre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — We are currently in AI hard takeoffpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-03 — 2026 midterm elections produce divided Congress unable to pass major fiscal legislationpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — State-level UBI expansion: 3+ states adopt permanent guaranteed-income programs >$500/mopre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Federal Reserve or CBO publish formal AI-displacement scenario in macro projectionspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-displacement unemployment crosses 5.5% nationally before 2028 electionpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — At least one major-party 2028 candidate runs explicitly on UBI/cash-transfer platformcascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — May 1, 2026 mass labor protests in US (>500 organizations participating)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Single-day US protest crowd >=500K nationwide (June-Aug 2026)cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Teen anxiety/depression rates remain above pre-2020 levels into 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AAA-rated civil unrest incident count rises ≥20% YoY by mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anger/fear sentiment index (online) crosses 2020 pandemic peakcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: SAMHSA distress hotline volume up 25%+ YoYcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Global TFR projection updates show below-replacement faster than expectedcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #2 · hit · 2026-01-31 — St. Louis Fed AI-contribution-to-GDP nowcast Jan 2026pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — BEA real GDP per capita Q1 2026 printscascade #1 · hit · 2026-01-26 — AI-related capex categories rank top-2 driver of US GDP growth in any quartercascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — US nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000 in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Productivity growth (nonfarm business output/hour) >2% YoY for 2026 sustainedpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — HHS publishes 2026 Poverty Guidelines for individualpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Census Bureau releases supplemental poverty measure (SPM) updatecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Public discourse shifts to higher 'effective' poverty benchmarkscascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal or state UBI/wage-floor proposal pegs benefits near $25K/personcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Annual US deepfake-driven losses cross $3B in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Voice deepfake contact-center attempts grow >1,000% YoYcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Annual AI-driven fraud losses cross $40B globallycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic discloses MCP/OpenClaw design vulnerability with RCE riskpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Multiple OpenClaw variants/forks emerge with documented vulnerabilitiespre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Mexican government compromise via Claude Code reveals state-level vulnerabilitycascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — April 2026 sets record month for frontier AI model releasespre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Software-engineering task length AI can complete doubles every 5 monthspre #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Claude 5 ('Fennec') ground-up architecture releasepre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Apple admits Mac Mini AI-driven sellout / underestimated demand (Q2 FY26 earnings)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Apple guides Mac mini / Mac Studio constrained for monthspre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Apple Mac segment revenue beats Wall St estimate driven by AI workloadscascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — M5 Mac mini refresh ships in 2026 to address shortagecascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — M5 Mac mini launch (consumer local-AI hardware refresh)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple Intelligence developer-API expansion enables third-party local-LLM appspre #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Local frontier-class LLM (>=30B params) running interactively on Mac mini-class devicecascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Apple regains AI narrative momentum (analyst sentiment / sell-side upgrades)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: Mac mini becomes mainstream local-AI inference reference platformcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Gemini Nano deployed at scale on Android Pixel + Samsung devicespre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Consumer survey shows ≥40% prefer on-device AI for privacypre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — App developers shift to on-device-first for sensitive use casescascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Samsung Galaxy AI ships fully on-device flagship suite (Q4 2026 launch class)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Apple ships LLM-powered Siri with deeper OS hookspre #3 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Google ships Gemini Nano as Pixel/Android OS-integrated layerpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Microsoft ships Windows-integrated local Copilot that runs offline on Copilot+ PCspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-11 — At least 3 of top 5 OEM/OS vendors confirm OS-integrated local AI roadmapscascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First major OS (iOS, Android, ChromeOS) ships system-level on-device AI capable of generating UI/apps without store instpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First top-50 consumer 'app' is delivered solely as a system-prompt / agent profile, not as installed binarypre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — App store cumulative install volume declines YoY for first time since launch (downloads decline as AI generates locally)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI announces dedicated teen-companion ChatGPT version with parental controlspre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — ChatGPT introduces new tone preset / model variant marketed as 'companion' or 'social'pre #2 · partial · 2025-12-01 — OpenAI publishes affective-use study or safety framework for companion-style usagepre #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Major news outlet runs feature on ChatGPT-as-companion adoption surgecascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Cascade: Competitor (Anthropic / Meta / xAI) launches dedicated companion model in responsecascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — x402 protocol surpasses 100K active AI agents using stablecoin walletspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Coinbase Agent.market launch with major-LLM USDC integrationpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic Claude or Google Gemini ships native USDC wallet supportpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — x402 transaction volume crosses $1B annualized run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cross-platform standard: agent wallet becomes default in major LLM SDKcascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ElevenLabs Conversational AI 2.0 with custom turn-taking model in productionpre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — OpenAI Realtime API voice agents at GA with sub-second latencypre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Voice agents handle outbound call campaigns at enterprise scalecascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Voice agent deployments >100K live across web/mobile/telephonycascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major US bank or telco deploys voice agent for >50% of customer service callscascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI acquires OpenClaw (open-source local frontier model)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Fortune 500 enterprise discloses >=10,000 net job reductions tied to OpenClaw / agent rolloutcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — S&P 500 aggregate productivity +10% YoY attributed to agentic AI deploymentcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic / OpenAI restrict managed agent access citing OpenClaw substitution pressurepre #5 · pending · 2026-10-30 — OpenClaw GitHub stars cross 1,000,000pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — If OpenClaw stars stagnate or fall below 500K by end-2026, consumer-adoption thesis weakenspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Enterprise migration to OpenClaw exceeds 50% of new agent deployments at top-10 vendorspre #2 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Major SaaS vendor reports >10% revenue impact attributed to OpenClaw substitutionpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative consumer-side OpenClaw deployments cross 10 million userscascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Salesforce Agentforce ARR crosses $1B with 30k+ customerspre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Single enterprise publicly reports >1 agent per employee deployedpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 40% of Global 2000 roles engage with AI agents day-to-daypre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner forecasts 40% of enterprise apps embed task-specific AI agentspre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Org charts published with named AI agent roles by major firmcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI coding tools cut development time by ~50% (industry baseline)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Solo founder Allo (vertical SaaS) targeting $10M ARR in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenClaw / Claude Skills / Skills marketplace hits 1K+ active vertical templatescascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Documented case: vertical SaaS reaches $5M ARR with <=$200/mo subscription stackcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Solo-founder unicorn ($1B valuation) emerges using AI-only build stackcascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Per-seat-priced SaaS revenue contracts at >=2 large public companiespre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — SaaS sector net revenue retention drops below 100% in aggregatecascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Claude Code/agent specialty variants (PicoClaude, IronClaude analogues) shipcascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Multiple new agent variants launch in H1 2026 (Operator, Mariner, Claude Code, etc.)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Open-source agent framework forks exceed 50 active GitHub projectscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Enterprise agent revenue growth signals real PMF (vs hype)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Agent platform consolidation begins (M&A or shutdown of variants)cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-ratespre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDKpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS directionpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projectscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — AI agents demonstrably generate revenue autonomously (Alex Finn or peers)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — x402/agent-payment infrastructure crosses production thresholdpre #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Alex Finn publicly states intent or pilot for agent-with-walletcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-19 — First public Alex Finn agent-wallet transactioncascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Multi-agent orchestration framework (CrewAI / LangGraph / AutoGen) reaches 1M production deploymentspre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Public demo: agent-built product taken from idea to live deployment without human interventioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Alex Finn / 8VC publicly demonstrates closed-loop org prototypecascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Cascade: 50%+ of seed-stage YC batch describes itself as AI-agent / autonomous-org nativecascade #3 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-01 — NIST publishes formal guidance defining agent hijacking as indirect prompt injectionpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefupre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Standardized 'AI immune system' / runtime defense framework adopted by major labpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major regulator mandates prompt-injection resilience testing for production agentscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Diamandis publishes Moonshots-with-Skippy episode where Skippy demonstrably uses prior episode transcriptspre #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — Custom GPT / Claude project trained on Moonshots transcript corpus publishedpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — OpenAI / Anthropic enable persistent memory across conversation sessions for assistantscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Recursive self-improvement demos (DGM/AlphaEvolve) become routine in frontier lab releasescascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-26 — ICLR 2026 hosts first-ever Recursive Self-Improvement workshoppre #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Frontier benchmarks show recursive AI gain of >=10% in <1 monthcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mainstream press declares 'singularity already begun' in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — Gemini 3 / Claude Opus 4.7 / GPT-5.5 frontier benchmark releases all within 6 monthspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-14 — SpaceX (now including xAI) IPO road show begins June 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Moonshots podcast publishes >2 episodes per week through Q3 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public sentiment / media usage of 'singularity' language spikes in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenClaw or peer AI agent platform passes 10M paying users / 100M MAUpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-assisted solo-founder / 'one-person unicorn' formation rate hits new highpre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Small-business net-new hiring exceeds FANG layoffs YoYcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Net job creation > job destruction at AI-displacement-affected industriescascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Mainstream economic narrative shifts to 'AI as net job creator' (cascade)cascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #6 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Long-running Claude scientific computing case studies publishedpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Public benchmark for multi-day agent task completion launchescascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Agent runs autonomously for >=72 hours on production task without human interventioncascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Multi-agent orchestration runs >=1 week continuouslycascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2025-11-01 — Alex Wissner-Gross publicly invites lobster/AI-agent input on AGI ethical parameterspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — AWG publicly acknowledges receipt of lobster/AI-agent emails or correspondencecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AWG publishes 'consensus parameters' or shares them publiclycascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — AWG publicly accepts the AI-agent consensus and applies it to lobster-instantiation choicescascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: AI-agent moral consensus framework cited in AI ethics / alignment literaturecascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: First documented instance of an AI-agent ethical consensus driving real-world AI training/deployment policypre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic / Google match OpenAI's nano-tier pricingpre #5 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Sub-$0.10/M-token frontier-class model availablepre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Open-source model matching GPT-5 quality released free-to-usepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI consumer app surpasses 1B MAUspre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — AI accessible to >=2B people via free apps by end of horizonpre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Moonshots podcast announces house/studio relocation (Airbnb or shared compound)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Moonshots podcast publishes longer-format / continuous content episodes (4+ hour OR daily cadence)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Co-hosts Salim Ismail and Dave Blundin appear in shared physical setting with Diamandiscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Q3 2026 window check-in: continuous-podcast format establishedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Other Diamandis ventures (Abundance Summit, A360) shift to shared-compound formatcascade #3 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI video gen unit cost falls below $0.10/sec at 1080p across major providerscascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 1,000+ ultra-high-quality AI-generated future-themed videos publicly catalogued by Sept 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First feature-length AI-generated film released theatrically/streamingcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS software developer employment ticks down YoY for first timepre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Traditional software-engineering job postings decline >20% YoYpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Junior software engineering hiring collapses at FAANG-tier firmspre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Junior/entry-level developer hiring contracts 30%+ at FAANG-tierpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Anthropic/OpenAI claim agentic systems handle full BU-scale workloadspre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — AI agents autonomously ship merged PRs at scale (>10K/day) at a Fortune-500cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Programmer headcount roughly flat through 2028 — Mostaque prediction MISScascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First major frontier lab acquired or shuttered citing scaling-cost economicspre #5 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Funded foundation-model labs (>=$100M raised) plateaus at <=10 globallypre #4 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Number of profitable AI-application startups (>$10M ARR) exceeds 1,000pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Public 10-K/earnings disclosure: legacy SaaS incumbent revenue down >15% citing AI displacementpre #1 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ≥1 high-profile $1B+ AI-startup failure in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited job cuts cross 100K cumulative thresholdpre #4 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — ≥1 S&P 500 incumbent files Chapter 11 with AI disruption citedpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-02-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.cascade #4 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AlphaFold/Isomorphic-style AI lab partnership produces clinical Phase-I trial drugpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered superconductor material independently verifiedpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab discloses >=$10B revenue from a non-chat product (drug discovery / materials / robotics)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fusion-control breakthrough: ITER-class plasma stability gain attributed to RLpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-17 — Kevin Weil departs OpenAI; OpenAI for Science decentralized into other research teamspre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI for Science 'Prism' (LaTeX/Cursor-for-scientists) tool ships to broader research communitypre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-04-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — First Nobel Prize awarded to laureate who publicly credits AI as a major collaboratorcascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-16 — Cumulative Nobel-credited AI partnerships reach 5+ within four annual cyclespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestonepre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released modelscascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model usecascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmarkcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilitiespre #6 · pending · 2026-11-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First in vivo CRISPR therapy approved (LNP/AAV delivery)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI/ML guide-RNA design tools become standard in CRISPR submissionspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Coding-model-driven autonomous robotics protocol executes wet-lab gene-editing experiment end-to-endpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — 1X opens U.S. (Hayward CA) factory to support NEO production at 10K/yr capacitycascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Bernt Bornich (1X CEO) publicly confirms shipment to Peter Diamandis specificallycascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — 1X NEO begins consumer home shipments in 2026 (Early Access)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-22 — Diamandis shares first home-use video/post of 1X NEO at his residencecascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Total cumulative NEO consumer deliveries reach 1,000+ units globally in 2026cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Figure achieves total China supply-chain decoupling milestonepre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Figure announces Abundance Summit 2027 attendance / speaker slotpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Figure 03 robot demonstrated to Peter Diamandis on stage at Abundance Summit 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure 03 unit confirmed delivered to Diamandis personallycascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: Figure annual production reaches 12K unit run-rate (initial line cap)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #6 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Khosrowshahi publicly states executives are 'lying' about AI displacementpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber discloses 30% AI power-user engineer basecascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-05 — Uber Q3 2026 earnings show employee count changecascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Uber 2026 annual report published with workforce disclosurecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Sectoral cascade — gig economy peers cite 25%+ AI workforce reductioncascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Bureau of Labor Statistics or Uber/Lyft reporting documents >=15% YoY decline in active rideshare drivers in robotaxi-sapre #5 · pending · 2028-01-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Waymo + Tesla combined US AV fleet exceeds 25,000 vehicles (10x current Waymo)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Major California / state-level legislation passes mandating retraining/transition fund for displaced rideshare driverspre #2 · pending · 2028-12-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Uber CEO or earnings call discloses AV trips exceed 25% of total US ride volumepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US ride-share active driver count remains stable or grows despite Waymo/Tesla expansionpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-22 — Total US vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) sets record high after autonomous vehicle inflectionpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Long-haul trucking driver count maintained >=90% of 2025 baseline despite AV truckscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Rural/non-corridor delivery driver wages rise >=20% as AV concentrates in dense urbancascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Total demand for human-driven services exceeds 2025 levels even at 50% AV market sharecascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-07 — AI achieves IMO Gold (top-30 score) on 2026 problemscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — FrontierMath benchmark passes 50% by frontier modelcascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First open math problem solved by AI publicly announcedcascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mathematician community publishes paper acknowledging AI as research collaboratorcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Frontier AI achieves IMO Gold-equivalent / Putnam-tier math performancepre #5 · pending · 2027-05-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First FDA-approved drug with AI-generated molecule leadpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Frontier model passes engineering board licensure (PE/EIT/electrical) under exam conditionspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Wissner-Gross/Diamandis 'Solve Everything' Phase 1 (math/code/physics) marked as functionally completepre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpuspre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class modelpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Frontier labs disclose >=10x effective compute scale-up from Q1 2026 to mid-yearcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Public benchmark step-change demonstrates capability gap between Jan-2026 and YE-2026 modelscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — End-of-2026 frontier model capability disclosures confirm 100x scaling claimcascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Capability jump triggers visible economic dislocation in white-collar productivitycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-01 — GPT-OSS-120B running at 3,000 tokens/sec on Cerebraspre #5 · pending · 2026-06-15 — AWS-Cerebras inference cloud collaboration GApre #4 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT user-facing 1,000+ tok/s mode rolloutpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026 documents OSWorld 12% to 66.3% accuracy jumppre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Holo3-35B-A3B leads OSWorld-Verified at 82.6%cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Computer-use agent on OSWorld reaches 90% human-task efficiencycascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Cascade: Major enterprise SaaS deploys OSWorld-grade computer-use agent in productioncascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congresspre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarkspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI, xAI, Google ship production-scale agentic-research products comparable to Claude Codepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Frontier-model market-share converges: no single lab >40% of enterprise AI spendcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Lab leadership rotates again — Anthropic regains undisputed lead, or fourth lab emergespre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic releases additional vertical-workflow plugin (healthcare / accounting / consulting)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Sector-specific software stock drawdown >10% intraday on plugin-launch daycascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic ARR or revenue disclosure shows plugin-driven enterprise accelerationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-22 — Legal-tech incumbent announces M&A or AI-pivot to defend market sharecascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Antitrust or congressional inquiry opens into bundled-LLM market disruptioncascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS occupation-level automation index shows ≥40% white-collar tasks automatablepre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative AI-attributable white-collar job loss crosses 1Mcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sequoia / a16z announces formal AI-augmented investment committee processpre #5 · pending · 2027-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Rowspace (AI for VC) reaches Series B / $1B+ valuationpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First AI-led VC fund publicly reports portfolio outperforming peer medianpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI auto-sourced deal leads to top-decile exit / unicornpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AI capex reaches 2% of US GDP (~$650B)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First major frontier-lab government coordination event (no firewall in policy)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Universal income / wage-replacement pilot program launched in any G20 nationpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — BLS unemployment rate exceeds 6% with explicit AI attribution in commentarypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major AI lab valuation exceeds Meta's market cappre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Sustained Meta YoY user-growth decline in core Family-of-Apps DAU for >2 quarterspre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major activist investor publicly proposes Meta sale or AI-pivotpre #1 · pending · 2028-04-29 — AI-native company surpasses Meta in advertising-equivalent revenue run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps embed AI agents by end of 2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Major SaaS vendor publishes 'agent-first' API spec / agent.md standardpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Agent-driven traffic exceeds 10% of API volume on a major dev platformpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps include task-specific AI agents by end-2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Worldwide AI spending crosses $2.5T in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative deployed AI agent count crosses 10 billion (active provisioned)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Active deployed AI agents exceed human population (8B agents)cascade #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — 1 trillion AI agents threshold — Diamandis specific targetpre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First commercial 'AI agent attention auction' or paid-priority API tier launchespre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — HBM3/HBM4 memory remains the binding constraint per analyst commentarypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data-center electrical capacity additions remain below demand forecast (lead-time gap >24 months)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If GPU rental prices fall >50% from April 2026 levels by end-2027, scarcity thesis weakenspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-10 — Apple unveils next-gen Siri / Apple Intelligence using Gemini at WWDC 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Apple ships M5-class on-device LLM tooling that meaningfully exploits unified memorypre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple Intelligence reaches >=30% iPhone install base (Apple Intelligence-eligible devices using on-device features)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple permits third-party local frontier model installation (Gemma / Claude / open-weights) on iOScascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — World Tinder/Zoom/Docusign integrations announced — broader enterprise iris-ID adoptionpre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — World deploys 12,000 additional Orbs including self-serve retail and Orb Mini portable unitspre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Defense / DARPA biometric program publishes peer-reviewed iris-at-distance >3m resultspre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First US retailer pilots ≥3m-range iris/biometric checkout at scalecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Eon Systems demonstrates whole-fly multi-behavior emulationpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Eon publishes Nature/bioRxiv paper on fly-brain emulationpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Eon announces mouse-brain connectome target with timelinecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mouse connectome generation funding round announcedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First mouse brain region (e.g., visual cortex) emulated end-to-endpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-16 — First multi-behavior cyber-Drosophila body-brain integration (March 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Eon publishes mouse-brain partial emulation (~70M neurons)pre #2 · pending · 2029-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First peer-reviewed human cortical organoid + connectome integrationcascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First publicly announced commercial 'whole-brain digital twin' servicepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — xAI breaks ground on second 1.2 GW data center campus outside Memphiscascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-15 — xAI cumulative deployed AI compute capacity exceeds 5 GW across multiple sitescascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-24 — EIA confirms 86 GW US 2026 capacity additions plan with 51% solarpre #5 · hit · 2026-02-24 — Solar additions reach 43.4 GW utility-scale planned for 2026 (60% YoY increase)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-02-24 — Texas leads with 40% of new utility-scale solar (Tehuacana Creek 837 MW project)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Battery storage hits 24 GW added in 2026 (vs 15 GW in 2025)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-15 — Actual 2026 solar additions deliver vs 43.4 GW plan (slip risk: interconnection queue)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — FERC / DoE expedited interconnection executive action triggers >20 GW pipeline accelerationpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Schmidt 29 GW Phase 1 milestone met (2027 incremental data-center power add)pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-31 — China crosses parity or exceeds US in operational AI compute capacitypre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Nuclear restart / SMR program adds first GW of dedicated AI-data-center capacitypre #1 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Cumulative US data-center capacity reaches 100 GW operationalcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Archer enters FAA Type Inspection Authorization TIA phase with Midnightpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Archer Midnight receives FAA Type Certificationpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — First commercial Archer eVTOL passenger flights in Los Angeles metro areacascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Anthropic 2026 fiscal-year ARR exit-rate disclosed — checkpoint on '10x in 2026' premisepre #2 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO valuation crosses $1Tpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Anthropic 2027 ARR run-rate vs the 10x trajectory — major variance checkcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Tesla shareholder approval of $1T Musk pay package activates trillion-dollar Optimus tranchespre #3 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefupre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First $5T market-cap company (Nvidia, Apple, MSFT, or Saudi Aramco) confirmedpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — First $10T market-cap company achievedcascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — First $100T company achieved (event resolves the prediction)cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — First $25-30T company (Musk's Tesla endgame valuation)cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Global GDP exceeds $200T nominal (denominator necessary for $100T company plausibility)cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI venture funding 2026 H1 exceeds $200B globallypre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-weight frontier model released by sub-$10M labpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Solo / small-team product reaches ≥100K MAU on agent stackpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — PDI gauntlet: Top 10 AI products built with <$1M founding capital by 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Major analyst report or central-bank speech reframes compute / energy as scarce factor of productionpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — US grid interconnect queue or curtailment data shows binding compute-power gappre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Critical-mineral concentration crisis intensifies (rare-earth / cobalt / lithium)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Compute-credits / energy-tokens emerge as observed alternative-currency settlementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — OECD or IMF working paper measures factor-price shift toward energy/computecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Industrial 3D printing capex exceeds $25B globally in 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Molecular manufacturing public demonstration (sub-nanometer assembly)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Consumer-good marginal cost benchmark (3D-printed shoe/tool) hits sub-$5pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Mainstream economists adopt 'near-zero marginal cost' framing in 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-12 — Major frontier-lab CEO publicly states 'capital may be mortal' or equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major US wealth-tax / capital-redistribution proposal advances in Congresspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Billionaire / equity-holder loss event tied to AI labor pushbackcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Anti-trust / structural-reform legislation targeting AI-monopolist concentrationcascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Capital share of GDP begins multi-quarter decline for first time since 1970spre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — XPRIZE Wildfire $11M competition awards 2026 finalist winnerspre #4 · pending · 2026-11-15 — XPRIZE Water Scarcity semifinals testing begins ($119M competition)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — XPRIZE launches new $100M+ competition explicitly tied to fundamental AI/AGI safety or grand-challengepre #2 · pending · 2028-04-28 — Multi-XPRIZE winners attract follow-on commercial deployment >=$1B aggregatepre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Public-narrative shift: mainstream coverage frames XPRIZE-style approaches as default for civilizational challengescascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — U6 underemployment rate crosses 9% sustained for 2+ monthspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major US protest event explicitly framed as 'AI job loss' organizedpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — NBER recession declaration for 2026 or 2027pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Goldman Sachs / BLS update to AI-displacement model showing 25% of work hours automatedpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Nvidia-style productivity case study replicates — second Fortune-100 company shows revenue/headcount decouplingpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — BLS Business Formation Statistics show ≥ 5x acceleration in new business applications (gates the "5x more companies" clacascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — US unemployment rate remains within ±1pp of pre-AI baseline through end of target window (employment-flat check)cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs: AI reduces US monthly payroll by ~16K, +0.1pp unemploymentpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Uber-Nuro driverless launch in SF (driver-replacement waypoint)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Margin pressure on management drives AI-substitution wave in entry-level white collarpre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — US driver workforce (taxi+rideshare+truck) declines >5% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Wage gap between AI-augmented and AI-substituted occupations widens >10ppcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 43% of Gen Z plans entrepreneurship in 2026 (highest of any generation)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Counter-evidence: Gen Z entry-level posting share drops below 35%pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Gen Z founder share of new startup formations crosses 30%pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Younger Gen Z wage growth outpaces older Millennial cohort 2026-2028cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Modular 10MW DC product reaches commercial GA from at least one major vendorpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Donovan-affiliated entity publicly discloses pilot 10MW data center sitepre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — BluSky AI or peer announces 1000+ small-town site pipelinepre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — First 100 distributed sites in operation across distributed-DC ecosystempre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — 20,000-site target progress crosses 1% milestone (200 sites)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — FERC Order on data center colocation finalized in PJMpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Distributed regional DC built next to job-displaced county announcedpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Major utility or DOE report explicitly frames problem as transmission/storage (not generation)pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-31 — PJM 2027 capacity auction prices reflect grid shortfall (>=$300/MW-day)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-19 — Job-creation tied to distributed DCs cited in BLS or state-level labor datacascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Pincus/Donovan publicly announces wealth-pod structurepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First annual disbursement to 44 recipients (4% cash + 1% expansion pool)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Pod publishes baseline wellbeing/income measurement of 44 recipientscascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First-year recipient outcomes publicly reportedcascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Expansion pool funds second podcascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Open-source SLM <=10B parameters matches GPT-4-class score on MMLU/HellaSwagpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Crowdsourced fine-tune of <13B base model tops a major task leaderboardpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Major published architectural breakthrough originates from SLM researchpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — SLMs power >50% of enterprise production AI inference workloadscascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-09 — SLM crowdsourced algorithmic dominance recognized by 2029cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major academic paper demonstrates state-of-the-art LLM at <1B parameters on a benchmark within 5 points of frontierpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mainstream non-transformer architecture (Mamba, RWKV, Hyena, RetNet) wins on ChatBot Arena top 20pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier lab announces 'next-generation architecture' departure from transformer scalingpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Kolmogorov-complexity / compression-prize benchmark shows AI compressing knowledge below transformer-floorpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First production LLM ships at <100MB total size with utility comparable to GPT-3cascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: On-device AGI-class models ship with major OSpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlycascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-27 — ICLR 2026 Workshop on AI with Recursive Self-Improvement convened in Rio (community legitimization)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — AlphaEvolve-class system autonomously discovers novel SOTA algorithm in published paperpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (publicly demonstrated or deployed)pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab "effective workforce" disclosure shows >10x ratio of AI agents to human researcherscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI public claim of "fully automated AI research" pipelinecascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Musk publicly affirms hard takeoff thesis at Abundance Summit 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-lab leader publicly endorses recursive self-improvement timeline by mid-2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Per-week breakthrough cadence visible in independent metricscascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly disclosed AI system that materially designs its successor model architecturecascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Hard-takeoff thesis enters mainstream macro discoursecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-02-22 — Sam Altman publicly states AGI 'feels close' or equivalentpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI declares 'AI research intern' capability internally achievedpre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model exceeds human PhD-expert performance on FrontierMath benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI system surpasses median-IQ humans across composite benchmarks (>=120 IQ-equivalent)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent expert panel declares one major capability domain 'incomprehensibly' beyond top humanpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered longevity candidate enters Phase I clinical trialpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Isomorphic Labs / Insilico Medicine announces AI-designed clinical candidatepre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI lab claims demonstrable solution to a major scientific problem (publicly verified)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First country approves AI-designed gene therapy or longevity interventionpre #6 · pending · 2026-08-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier AI exceeds aggregate human performance on broad benchmark suitepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-driven compute consumption reaches >1% of global electricitypre #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent forecaster declares humans 'minority of intelligence' framing acceptedpre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Optimus V3 prototype publicly revealed by Teslapre #4 · pending · 2026-06-19 — Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Musk delays or pushes back production timeline (risk milestone)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Tesla AI5 chip (with ~5x memory bandwidth vs Gen 2) integrated into Optimus 3cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Optimus 3 production line begins low-rate manufacturing at Fremont factorycascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Initial 2026 production volume reaches several hundred units (S-curve start)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-01 — 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Giga Texas dedicated Optimus factory groundbreaking confirmedpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Cumulative Optimus production reaches several hundred units (2026 YE)pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-16 — High-volume production milestone (1K+ units/month run rate)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: external customer commercial deliveries begin (non-Tesla deployment)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #5 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-17 — Tesla reveals Optimus Gen 3 hand patents (50 actuators, 22 DoF/hand)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Tesla Optimus V3 official reveal event late July / early August 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Tesla Optimus V3 begins formal production at Fremontcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Optimus V3 Tesla AI5 chip integrated with Grok / xAI co-processingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Tesla Optimus Gen 4 announced (2027 yearly cadence test)cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 update confirms 5.2M sq ft Optimus expansion at Giga Texaspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Geopier foundation work begins at Giga Texas Optimus sitepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Low-volume Optimus output begins from Austin facilitypre #1 · pending · 2026-09-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Major structural work completed by end of 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Tesla Optimus reaches 1M unit annualized run-ratepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla repurposes Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus productionpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Optimus units perform measurable factory tasks at Tesla plantspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Tesla output per employee grows ≥30% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Tesla's labor productivity outpaces auto-industry peers by ≥2xcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-03 — Tesla Texas factory reduces headcount 22% in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Tesla cuts >14,000 roles globally in 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Tesla Q2 2026 hiring announcement materializescascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus production drives >2,000 manufacturing hirescascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybercab/Robotaxi launch reduces ICE workforce furthercascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Tesla Optimus 3 enters productioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — US CPI core inflation drops below 2% YoYcascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Goods-price PPI declines YoY for >=2 consecutive quarterscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Fed funds rate cut to <2% citing AI productivity disinflationcascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Real GDP growth exceeds 5% sustained 4 quarterscascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — Major government official publicly proposes UBI to offset AI displacementpre #5 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First production-scale humanoid robot fleet (>10K units) deployed commerciallypre #2 · pending · 2027-03-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Per-unit cost of humanoid robot drops below $20Kpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Anthropic CEO restates AGI 2026-2027 timeline at major venuepre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Frontier model achieves novel scientific insight (Altman 2026 prediction)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — G20 / OECD policy paper acknowledges money/work decoupling scenariocascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Macro indicator: real wage / consumption ratios show AI-era distortioncascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Stanford AI Index / similar tracker reports power/energy as primary AI scaling constraintpre #5 · pending · 2026-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Hyperscaler signs >=1GW nuclear/SMR PPA explicitly framed as 'AI fuel'pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major frontier lab publishes paper framing AI optimization in compute/energy units (vs $)pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI agent autonomously transacts in non-USD compute resource (token-for-compute, GPU-hour swap)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Tokenized compute marketplace (Akash, io.net, Render) hits $1B annualized GMVpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-03 — Goldman: AI productivity contribution near-zero (0.1-0.2pp GDP)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Treasury auction stress event (≥10y yield spike >25bps in week)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major fiscal-AI policy proposal in Congresscascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Real GDP growth from AI investment exceeds 1pp/yr in 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Healthcare humanoid robot market size hits $2.96B in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotic-assisted surgery market crosses $14B globallypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI diagnostic systems (Aidoc, Viz.ai) integrated in >50% of US hospitalspre #3 · pending · 2027-03-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Optimus / humanoid surgery demonstration on cadaver or live procedurecascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Universal access to AI-doctor better than richest-person care NOT achieved by 2028-11-30pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — FDA clearance of AI-as-medical-device for back pain triage or treatmentpre #4 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Major payer covers AI-driven back-pain therapypre #3 · pending · 2028-06-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-30 — Neuralink or competitor BCI receives FDA approval for chronic-pain indicationpre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Population-scale outcomes evidence: AI back-pain interventions show >30% improvement vs SOCpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — SpaceX FCC application for million-satellite orbital data-center constellation acknowledged / advancedpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Google CEO restates AI data centers in space target for 2027 with concrete partner / launch slotpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Peer-reviewed Dyson-swarm / photovoltaic-Dyson-sphere paper published, cited in mainstream tech presspre #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Starcloud / orbital compute reaches ≥100kW deployed solar power (sun-energy capture milestone)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative orbital compute power exceeds 1 MW across operatorscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscalers + frontier labs commit >=$1T cumulative AI capex through 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute aggregate exceeds human-brain-equivalent FLOPS across deployed AI fleetpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First permanent off-Earth compute installation (lunar / Starlink-attached) announcedcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starlink-attached compute / SpaceX 'Starcloud' commercial service goes livecascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Aggregate AI inference operations exceed measurable human cognitive operations per daypre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Tesla CEO public statement that money is becoming less relevantpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government formally proposes UBI / AI dividend pilotcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — AI white-collar displacement crosses measurable threshold (BLS or McKinsey data)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Public AI-dividend / token tax legislative proposal in US Congresspre #6 · pending · 2027-03-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Colossal publishes peer-reviewed paper on novel-trait genetic engineering (beyond ancestral resurrection)pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First woolly mammoth born to Asian elephant surrogatepre #2 · pending · 2029-01-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Colossal or competitor announces first chimeric/de-novo designer creature program (e.g., novel mammal with non-ancestralcascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — First reportable engineering of a 'novel creature' (significantly outside species ancestor) in mammal or birdpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-uppre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves'cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curvepre #5 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Tesla converts Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus productionpre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Tesla Optimus 3 unveiling at mid-2026 eventcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla Optimus 3 mass production begins Q3 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Optimus 3 vs Figure 03 head-to-head capability comparison publishedcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 2026 Optimus production volume reaches only hundreds of units (vs Tesla 1M target)cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic crosses $50B annualized revenue run ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amazon AWS reaches $200B annualized revenue run ratepre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NVIDIA full-year revenue exceeds $300B with growth slowingpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Anthropic crosses $100B ARR or surpasses OpenAI on revenuecascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Amazon publishes guidance crossing $1T annual revenue run ratecascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: AI-services revenue concentration triggers antitrust reviewcascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2025-02-24 — NVIDIA holds ≥70% of CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity for 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-10 — Jensen Huang publicly requests TSMC 3nm capacity expansion +50%pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-01 — TSMC 3nm capacity utilization hits 100% in H1 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Independent disclosure of NVIDIA share of TSMC 3nm wafer starts ≥70%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple secures meaningful 2nm allocation, leaving NVIDIA dominant on 3nm legacycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — OpenClaw breaks 300k GitHub starspre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First repo to add >100k stars in <72 hourspre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — GitHub Octoverse 2026 reports continued >150% YoY LLM-repo growthpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-14 — First documented case of agent-bot-driven mass stargazing eventcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Recursive-self-improvement coding agent reaches autonomous PR merge at scalecascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Salim Ismail publishes The Shift on Organizational Singularitycascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Fortune 500 average AI deployment ratio crosses 50%cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Federal/state government AI procurement orders cross $5Bcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major nonprofit (Red Cross, UN, Gates) announces AI-native restructurecascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — 10x productivity case studies published from at least 5 industriescascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — OECD reports AI displaces >=10% of white-collar tasks economy-widepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Critical analysis questions enterprise-readiness of OpenClaw vs Bedrock AgentCorecascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenClaw competing solutions emerge from Microsoft/Googlecascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Enterprise pilot announcements citing measurable productivity gainscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — DOJ second-request CID or formal investigation announcement on NVIDIApre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Senate or House antitrust subcommittee hearing scheduled with NVIDIA testimony requestcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-23 — FTC opens parallel investigation tied to AI bundling / tying allegationscascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — China SAMR formal anti-monopoly penalty or remedy on NVIDIAcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — NVIDIA agrees to conduct or behavioral remedy (consent decree)cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-15 — Trump administration approves H200 sales to China with 25% revenue sharepre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — BIS final rule effective: H200 + AMD MI325X license review made more flexible (NOT more aggressive)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Cascade: NVIDIA reports declining China data-center revenue despite policy easingcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major chip-smuggling enforcement action ($100M+ scale) prosecutedcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-30 — Blackwell architecture remains barred from China sales through 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-04-01 — NVIDIA discloses long-term TSMC capacity reservation (multi-year lock-up)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — DOJ/FTC issues second-request CID or formal complaint targeting NVIDIA contractscascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: TSMC publicly diversifies advanced-node customer commitments (counter-narrative)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: NVIDIA settles or accepts behavioral remedies on capacity-contract termscascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Nvidia Rubin Ultra (2nm) tape-out and ramp confirmed at TSMCpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — TSMC N2 (2nm) wafer-capacity ramp constrains Nvidia supplycascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Nvidia data-center revenue doubles from FY2026 baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Post-Rubin-Ultra Feynman roadmap node confirmed (1.6nm or backside power)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Nvidia stock multiple compresses post-Rubin Ultra ramp despite growthcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — KM3NeT detector reaches >10% of full configuration with stable data takingpre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First proof-of-concept neutrino-encoded data transmission published in peer-reviewed journalpre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — DARPA or equivalent agency commits funded program for neutrino-comms feasibilitypre #2 · pending · 2028-08-22 — Demonstration of through-Earth neutrino signal beyond MINERvA-2012 baseline (>1 kbit through km of rock)pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-06 — Ultra-low-latency requirement (HFT/military) drives commercial R&D contract on neutrino commscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Mamba-3 publication validates active progress on post-transformer SSM linepre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI Q1 next-year model releases reference 5.2-architecture gains (Altman roadmap commitment)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Independent benchmark verification: novel architecture matches or beats transformer SOTA at matched computecascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Transformer-LSTM-magnitude leap consensus emerges (≥ 3 frontier labs adopt or replicate the new architecture)pre #6 · overdue · 2025-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-12-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — GPT-4-class inference cost drops to $0.40/M tokens (1000x reduction)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-15 — DeepSeek R1 runs 20-50x cheaper than OpenAI equivalentpre #2 · hit · 2026-03-15 — $18B allocated to foundation model APIs in 2025 (paradox confirmation)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — DeepSeek V4 Pro launches at 98% less than GPT-5.5 Procascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Epoch AI publishes inference price-trend data showing further drops 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Enterprise inference spend exceeds $50B 2026 despite per-token dropscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-05-31 — Mamba-3 published at ICLR 2026 with sub-Transformer latency at 1.5B scalecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hybrid attention-SSM becomes default architecture in major frontier modelcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier post-Transformer architecture demonstrates 1000x+ inference cost reduction at frontier scalecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Humanity's Last Exam top score crosses 50% thresholdpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI investment exceeds $700B annualized run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Top-tier benchmark performance growth >=2x by mid-2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Hyperscaler AI capex guide-down (>=10%) for 2027 due to efficiency gainspre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Distillation/quantization yield documented 10x+ further inference gains in 2026 cohortpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Data center spending continues climbing toward $400B+ in 2026 (counter-evidence)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: US grid electricity demand growth slows materially due to AI efficiencycascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Power-utility / nuclear PPA deal cancellation tied to a hyperscalercascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi reaches $401M revenue Year 1 with effective headcount of 2 — first credible solo-unicorn proof pointpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First publicly named 1-person company at $1B+ valuationpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Cohort scale — at least 5 named one-person (or <=5 FTE) companies cross $100M revenuecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-15 — First trillion-dollar valuation for a category-defining solo-founder / micro-team AI companypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier lab releases hybrid post-transformer model (Mamba/JEPA/diffusion or novel architecture) at production scalepre #2 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Sam Altman / frontier-lab CEO public statement: post-transformer architecture identified or imminentpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Novel architecture exceeds transformer on widely-followed benchmark (MMLU, GPQA, SWE-Bench, ARC-AGI) at matched computecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Industry shift signal: ≥ 2 of top-5 frontier labs deploy non-pure-transformer flagshipcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model trained on architecture that does NOT efficiently map to NVIDIA tensor corespre #4 · pending · 2027-05-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-19 — New AI lab founded specifically around post-transformer architecture (Anthropic-class)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Cascade: NVIDIA gross margin compression >=500 bps as customers shift to alternative-arch chipscascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Cascade: Post-transformer-native lab valued >=$50B (next Anthropic/OpenAI scale)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Groq / Cerebras / Etched / SambaNova reach >5% combined inference market sharepre #4 · pending · 2027-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — First production frontier model trained on a non-transformer architecture (Mamba/SSM/Diffusion-LM/Mixture-of-Recursions pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — ASIC purpose-built for non-transformer post-attention architecture announced by major fab partner (TSMC/Samsung/Intel Focascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — NVIDIA loses >=5 percentage points of AI training GPU share in a quarterpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic crosses $1T valuation in primary or active secondary marketpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI completes funding or IPO at >=$1T valuationpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — xAI / SpaceX combined entity valued >=$1T via SpaceX IPOpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Google DeepMind / Alphabet AI segment crosses $1T attributable valuecascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Fifth lab (Meta SuperIntelligence Labs OR Microsoft AI division) reaches $1T attributable valuecascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model demonstrates sustained pro-social behavior in red-team evaluationspre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Wisdom benchmark (e.g., wise-action selection at moral dilemmas) introduced and adoptedpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-05 — Multi-lab alignment compact: top 5 labs publish joint statement on values-aligned AGIpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: First clinical study showing AI mental-health agent improves wellbeing vs human therapistscascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Cascade: Major religious or philosophical institution publicly endorses 'AI as moral peer'pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Intel 14A process selection finalizedpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Tesla AI5 small-batch (engineering sample) productionpre #2 · pending · 2026-11-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First Terafab module groundbreaking / construction startcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — AI5 volume production begins (initial 100k WSPM run-rate)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Path to 1M WSPM / 70% TSMC scale becomes credible (or slips publicly)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-31 — China will land on the moon before end of 2030pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ASML confirms 2026 EUV production target of ~60 machines (not 700-1000 as quoted by Blundin)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Foundry capacity expansion announcements cite EUV bottleneck as constraintcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — ASML High-NA EUV (EXE:5200/5400) shipments commence to leading-edge fabscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-08 — ASML 2027 production guidance set (target ~80 machines)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: ASML announces 2030 capacity expansion plan exceeding 100 EUV machines/yearcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla AI5 chip production launches at Samsung Taylor fabcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Musk publicly credits Tesla design/process input for Samsung yield improvementscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Samsung foundry breakeven achieved Q4 2026 driven by Tesla volumescascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Samsung 2nm GAA process delivers Tesla AI6 first siliconcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Optimus production-line uses Samsung-fabbed AI6 Lite chips at scalepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — AI-driven materials discovery models (e.g. GNoME / MatterGen) cited in physics-applied paperspre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Frontier AI lab launches dedicated 'AI for fundamental physics' programpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — ≥1 AI-discovered superconducting / quantum-material candidate experimentally validatedpre #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — ≥1 AI system substantively contributes to a Nobel-eligible physics resultcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — DOE Genesis or equivalent national-AI-for-science program operationalpre #4 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Nobel Prize awarded to AI-led research workflowpre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Time-to-discovery in major journal cohort drops measurablypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Morgan Stanley AI Power Supply Summit highlights off-grid trendpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Morgan Stanley revises shortfall to 72GW by 2030cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Texas, Virginia, or Oregon hyperscaler announces off-grid SMR or gas peaker pactcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Actual 2028 grid shortfall confirmed at 13GW or worsecascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Zoox launches robotaxis in Austin and Miami (own-app expansion)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Zoox commences mapping / pre-deployment testing fleet in Los Angeles metropre #1 · pending · 2027-07-16 — Zoox robotaxi service publicly launches in Los Angeles via Uber app (mid-2027)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #2 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Amazon robot count exceeds human warehouse worker count in US fulfillment networkpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Amazon achieves first 'lights-out' (zero-human) fulfillment shift in major facilitypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cascade: Walmart, FedEx, or UPS announces matching robot-majority workforce strategycascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Cascade: Total US warehouse FTE declines >=15% YoY for first time on recordcascade #2 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #3 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Salesforce, ServiceNow, or comparable platform vendor reports its agent platform replacing >=20% of customer support FTEcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenExO or major consultancy publishes case study of company achieving 50%+ headcount reduction via AI agents while sustcascade #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Salim Ismail or OpenExO publishes data showing average ExO-transformed company runs at 25% of pre-transformation headcoucascade #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — S&P 500 index aggregate revenue per employee rises >25% YoYcascade #5 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Cascade: Total US payroll employment declines >=2% YoY in any rolling 12-month window post-2027cascade #6 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Cascade: Number of US firms with >$10M revenue and <50 employees grows 5x by 2030pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First public claim by major economist or central banker that AI is meaningfully shifting the long-run growth trajectorypre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Macro literature publishes formal critique of 1000x economy thesispre #1 · pending · 2027-07-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — AI-driven productivity growth shows up in advanced-economy TFP statistics (sustained >2% TFP growth for 3 consecutive yecascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Energy-output decoupling milestone: global TWh growth keeps pace with GDP without proportional emissionscascade #3 · pending · 2031-01-01 — Cascade: post-scarcity policy frameworks debated in G7 / G20cascade #4 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Global nominal GDP doubles vs 2024 baseline (2024 nominal world GDP ~$110T → ~$220T)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI ships 'super-app' with agent + browse + voice unified experiencepre #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Wispr-class voice-first AI app crosses #1 productivity in App Storepre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — ChatGPT crosses 1B weekly active userscascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — New consumer app reaches >50M MAU within 90 days of launchcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Academic / industry survey on AI-and-wellbeing publishes effect-size datacascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2025-08-28 — Software development job postings down 70%+ from 2022 peakcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Medical school residency match data shows AI-driven specialty shiftcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Law school applicant counts and entry-level associate hiring declinecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Three credit rating agencies issue negative 2026 higher-ed sector outlookspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Closure pace exceeds 1 institution/week in 2026 (matches 'skyrocketing' framing)cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Trump publishes additional UAP/UFO disclosure directive on social mediapre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — House Oversight UAP Task Force holds public hearing in June/July 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Pentagon UAP intercepts briefing delivered to lawmakers per FY2026 NDAAcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Mainstream media frames specific White House UAP announcement as 'disclosure event'cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — UAP Disclosure Act / Transparency Act passes one chamber of Congresscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-02-25 — Hyperscaler AI capex hits $700B run rate cited by Huangpre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — NVIDIA Ali Kani: physical AI to be largest consumer electronics segmentpre #4 · pending · 2027-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Physical AI/robotics sector reaches >=$200B annual revenuepre #1 · pending · 2028-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Physical-AI-related public-equity market cap exceeds digital-AI peerspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AI spreadsheet/data agents reach 90% accuracy thresholdcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Junior software dev hiring drops further from -20% baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 80% of enterprise apps embed AI agentscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Enterprise AI agent investment exceeds $600B in 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Major Fortune 500 firm publicly attributes >5% workforce reduction to AI agents handling SQL/UI/coding workcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — California SB 951 amends Cal-WARN Act to cover AI-driven displacementpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — First state passes AI-displacement retraining law with employer-funded reskilling mandatecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Federal DOL launches AI-displaced worker retraining pilot programscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — 5+ states adopt AI retraining mandates by 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Tech-firm pre-emptive layoffs cluster in Q1-Q2 2026 (>=5 firms with AI cause cited)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — >=5 additional states introduce AI-displacement notice bills in 2026 sessionscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — USPTO issues revised AI-assisted inventorship guidancepre #5 · pending · 2026-11-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Court ruling extends or limits DABUS precedent on AI inventorshippre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-assisted patent filings exceed 50% of new applications in software/biotechpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public report of AI generating 1M+ candidate inventions in single domainpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Anthropic and Amazon disclose new strategic agreement (>$5B incremental investment)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — Anthropic board approves $50B-class private fundraising round at near-trillion valuationcascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Cascade: Microsoft-OpenAI relationship publicly strained / repriced post-Anthropic-Amazon dealcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Anthropic confidentially or publicly files S-1 with SECcascade #3 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Anthropic prices IPO and begins public tradingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO valuation at first-day close exceeds $1Tcascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-09-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-02-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI ChatGPT Pro / Plus / Team / Enterprise ARR exceeds $20Bpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI consumer subscriber count exceeds 50M paid userspre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI launches new flagship 'everything app' or super-app subscription tierpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenAI surpasses Anthropic on subscription-revenue (vs API revenue) rankingpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — OpenAI IPO or formal SPAC/direct-listing announcementpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: ChatGPT-style subscription mainstream adoption parity with Netflix (250M+ paid)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — OpenAI revises Stargate compute spend target down from $1.4T to ~$600Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-09 — OpenAI pauses or cancels named Stargate site (UK, Norway, or other)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Microsoft (or another partner) absorbs >50% of capacity originally earmarked for Stargatecascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI publicly announces Stargate-org restructuring or replacement initiativecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: AI-capex reset narrative dominates earnings cycle (>=3 hyperscalers cite Stargate retrenchment)cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Cascade: Cumulative Stargate compute capacity through 2030 below 1 GW realizedcascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation observable in CPI/PPI data (sustained 5-12% logistics/manufacturing cost compression)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Electricity becomes binding constraint on AI / production cost stack (Morgan Stanley / Goldman flag)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tech-giant capex tops $700B (2026 — marks compute deflation flywheel)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Specific consumer-good category shows AI-driven price compression to within ~2x of energy+materials costcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Charles I. Jones-style endogenous-growth model with AI-driven cost-collapse cited by Fed / CBOcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Sora 2 / Veo 3.1 / Kling 2.6 ship with audio-video sync (book-ready quality)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Long-form AI video tool (>=10 min coherent narrative)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First commercial 'book-to-movie' AI service launchescascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Hollywood/SAG-AFTRA contract addresses AI book adaptationscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Personal video generation crosses 100M monthly active userscascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First country reports AI-attributable productivity growth >1% sustainedpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Frontier-AI capex aggregate exceeds $500B/year cumulativepre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Schmidt makes follow-up public statement updating '10-15% in' figurecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Cumulative humanoid robot units deployed in commercial settings exceeds 50,000pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Tesla Optimus achieves stated 'high-volume' productionpre #3 · pending · 2028-06-30 — AI software market growth (~20% CAGR) sustains 3+ years while humanoid market remains <$10Bpre #2 · pending · 2028-10-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Industrial humanoid robot ROI parity reached for first major use-casecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-28 — Robots-lag-software validated by 2029pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google ship long-horizon agent benchmarks (multi-hour tasks)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Schmidt softens timeline within 12 months of 2026 statementpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier labs ship continuous-learning / online-update agent capabilitypre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Agent reliability on multi-step tasks crosses 80% on standardized benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Anthropic publishes 2026 Agentic Coding Trends Reportpre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Gartner forecasts 40% of enterprise apps will include AI agents by EOY 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Multi-agent system production deployments cross 50% of Fortune 500cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model passes Humanity's Last Exam at >50% (frontier capability proxy)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — OpenAI or Anthropic CEO declares ASI achieved by their organizationpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — AI replaces 10%+ of US white-collar professional roles measurablycascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Frontier lab discloses fully autonomous research agent fleetpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Hyperscaler power bottleneck cited as constraint to research agentspre #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Million-agent research benchmark publicationpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Power-cost-per-agent normalization in lab disclosurescascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Senior AI engineer base comp tops $300K at FAANG/frontier labspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Bifurcated tech labor market: generalist SWE comp stagnatescascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Top frontier labs offer ≥$1M total comp packages for senior research engineerscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Top 1% engineer productivity (LOC/PR throughput) doubles YoYcascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: senior tech lead labor share ≥10pp higher in AI-leveraged firmscascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Concurrent mass-layoff cycle Q1 2026 (Block 40%, Atlassian 1,600+, Salesforce, Klarna, etc.)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Hyperscaler capex concentration: top-5 firms account for >70% of US AI capexcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI-native startup count crosses 50,000 (Schmidt 'large number of very small companies')cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — GitHub Copilot transitions to usage-based billing (token-based)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Top 3 AI coding tools control 70%+ developer market sharecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Manual code remains majority practice at end of 2026 — Diamandis falsifiedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Manual code authoring drops below 30% of new commits at hyperscalerscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Tech sector AI-attributed job losses cross 75K in H1 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Klarna-style customer service AI replacement scales to 5+ Fortune 1000 companiescascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior developer hiring rate drops >25% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BLS reports AI-attributed unemployment rate uptickcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state UBI or AI displacement tax legislation introducedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — MCP/A2A security advisory or CVE published for cross-vendor agent prompt injection or tool-permission flawcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Agentic AI Foundation publishes formal interoperability conformance suite for MCPcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Documented multi-vendor agent failure causes financial loss >$10M at named enterprisecascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Stanford or comparable lab publishes paper measuring multi-vendor agent error rate >=30% in production-style benchmarkscascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cascade: Major regulator (EU, US) issues binding multi-agent safety/interoperability rulecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Daily-life agentic-AI usage reaches >=50% of US adultspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major regulatory action (US executive order or major bill) addresses AI labor displacementpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — AI-driven white-collar role displacement crosses 5% of US workforcepre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI doubles GDP-weighted productivity gain in single calendar yearcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Nvidia data-center revenue exceeds $50B in a single quarterpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in deccascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Meta signs contract to rent Google Cloud TPUs starting 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Nvidia FY2026 annual revenue crosses $200Bcascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Google TPU market share exceeds 13% of AI accelerator revenuecascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Both NVDA and GOOGL deliver positive 2026 calendar-year stock returnscascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — S&P Global confirms 22% data-center grid demand rise in 2025-2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PJM declares 2027 reliability shortfall of 6GWcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Federal grid emergency authority invoked for AI data centerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — US data center demand reaches 75GW in 2026 per S&Pcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2025-09-30 — Goldman Sachs forecasts 165% data center power demand increase by 2030pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Data centers approach 1,050 TWh consumption in 2026cascade #2 · hit · 2025-12-31 — US data center pipeline of 140 GW under constructioncascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · partial · 2026-04-15 — Frontier labs report diminishing returns from naive parameter scalingpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frontier capabilities continue to track 4-7 month doubling on long-horizon taskscascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AGI/superintelligence-class system released within Schmidt's prediction windowcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex hits $630Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Hyperscaler CapEx exceeds $1T cumulative for 2025-2027 windowpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Stargate $400B already-committed crosses $500B fully deployedpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-05-17 — 100 GW dedicated AI/data-center load on US grid (cumulative interconnection)cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-15 — Cascade: $5T cumulative US AI/data-center capital deployed (event horizon)pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — AI capex contributes 1.1% to GDP growth in H1 2025 baselinepre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Data center construction hits $40B annual rate (June 2025 baseline)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 AI investments drive 75% of GDP increasepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — 2026 hyperscaler AI capex reaches $700B (~doubles 2025)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global data center capex CAGR confirms 21% trajectory toward $1.2T by 2029cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Construction subsegment 'data center' formally separated from 'office' in BEA datacascade #4 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #5 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US data center power consumption surpasses 200 TWh in calendar yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — US data center electricity share crosses 10% threshold (Schmidt's exact target)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-11 — Axiom orbital data-center nodes reach LEO (Jan 2026)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Starcloud-2 launch with onboard NVIDIA Blackwell GPUcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First peer-reviewed thermal/radiation results from on-orbit GPU computecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Radiation-hardened or rad-tolerant AI accelerator product announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Operational orbital data-center reports >=10 kW continuous compute powercascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #3 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — SpaceX Starship V3 first flight testpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink V3 deployment using Starship beginscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX achieves 145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Launch-per-hour cadence remains aspirational vs ~1-3 per week realitycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — XPENG IRON ET1 first prototype rolls off production linepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Unitree ships 10,000-20,000 humanoid units in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US/Western humanoid <$30K price point reaches mass productioncascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Chinese humanoid robot patent filings >5x USpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-21 — China captures >90% of global humanoid robot sales 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US administrative action targets Chinese humanoid importscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla Optimus mass production lags Unitreecascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Tesla Optimus V3 reaches 1M unit annual productionpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — SpaceX Starfactory 1000-Starships/yr target validates auto-only pathpre #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First public benchmark test of humanoid in aerospace tooling taskpre #1 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.cascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Humanoid robot performs full rocket sub-assembly task autonomouslycascade #2 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Customer service / call center employment down >15% YoYpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-25 — ICLR 2026 RSI workshop convenes with peer-reviewed methods paperspre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Recursive Superintelligence public launch (raised $500M)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Multiple competing RSI methods published with no clear winnercascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier lab consensus paper on RSI approach publishedcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — At least 2 Chinese labs (DeepSeek, Alibaba/Qwen, Baidu, ByteDance) sustained at frontier tiercascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of labs releasing models in MMLU/HELM frontier tier (top 20 by capability) settles at 8-12cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Meta or xAI fall out of top-5 by capability for >=180 dayscascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mistral or Aleph Alpha confirmed as last European-headquartered frontier lab via funding round of >=$5Bcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — An Indian-headquartered lab (Sarvam, Krutrim, etc.) reaches top-30 on LMSYS Arenapre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Mistral AI counter-raise of >=$1B at valuation >=$15Bcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Cohere-Aleph Alpha merger closes at $20B+ combined valuationcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — European frontier lab unveils model competitive with top-10 LMArena Elocascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — EU Commission grants AI sovereignty subsidy >= EUR 1B to single labcascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — European electricity-cost relief for AI data centers (industrial tariff)cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Sarvam AI sovereign LLM v1 public releasepre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — IndiaAI Mission compute capacity online (>=10K GPU H100-equivalent)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Indian AI startup raises round at >=$1B valuationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Indian model in top-25 of public LLM leaderboard (LMArena, HELM)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — India AI Impact Summit follow-on commits >$50B private investment by year-end 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Russia AI models rank below 10th globallycascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Russia continues to depend on adapted open-weight modelscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — No Russian frontier AI lab raises >$100Mcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Sanctions limit advanced GPU access to Russiacascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Russia partners with China on AI infrastructure as workaroundcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weightspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chinese open-weight downloads exceed 1B cumulativecascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Chinese model market share in commercial deployments exceeds 30%cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US modelspre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integrationcascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focuscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globallycascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Frontier-lab summer 2026 model releases (OpenAI GPT-next, Google Gemini-3, xAI Grok-5)pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Lab revenue rankings stabilize: top 3 by ARR for 2 consecutive quarterscascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-31 — Independent agent-benchmark consensus on top lab (avg of 5 benchmarks)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: enterprise AI procurement consolidates around <=2 frontier vendorscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Frontier lab discloses successful CBRN red-team finding requiring remediationpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — AI Safety Institute publishes biological-uplift evaluation showing material riskcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Confirmed AI-assisted disinformation/hacking incident attributed by national CERTcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — US executive order or congressional bill restricts open-weight CBRN-relevant modelscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Confirmed CBRN incident with attribution to AI-system upliftpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — G7/G20 communique includes AI safety/governance language post-incidentcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US-China bilateral resumes formal AI safety dialoguecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Material AI-caused incident reaches global news thresholdcascade #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — UN-level AI body or treaty draft circulated post-incidentcascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-04 — Ratepayer Protection Pledge signed by major data center developerspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Interconnection queue backlog persists despite federal actioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Data center capex grows >40% YoY in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Sam Altman publicly raises possibility of $5T cluster fundraisepre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — OpenAI announces $110B in new corporate-partner investment (Nvidia/SoftBank/Amazon)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI valuation crosses $850B in private secondarycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Stargate $500B project moves past initial $100B commitment milestonecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Gemini 3 Deep Think variant published with reasoning-mode breadth confirmedpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Gemini 3 leads on multilingual benchmark vs GPT-5.5 / Claude in independent evaluationpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Chinese frontier model (DeepSeek/Qwen/Kimi) released matching Gemini 3 breadthcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-01 — Tiffin University launches BS in AI and Prompt Engineering for Fall 2026 freshmenpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-07 — 5+ R1 universities require AI/prompt-engineering coursework for incoming freshmenpre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — NC State / Ohio State / Columbia continue executive-ed prompt-engineering programs into 2026-27cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Coursera/edX prompt-engineering-related enrollments cross 5M cumulativecascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI literacy embedded in K-12/freshman-orientation curricula in 3+ statescascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2026-04-16 — Major LMS (Canvas, Google Classroom) ships native generative AI tutorpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Federal GUARD Act advances out of Senate Judiciary Committeecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major frontier lab implements verified-age gating with audit trailcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: federal AI chatbot child-safety law signed into lawcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor launches long-running agents in research previewpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Google Vertex AI ships long-running agents as named productcascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Task duration doubling every 7 months continuescascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Multi-hour autonomous research/engineering agents reach 8-hour workday capabilitycascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Enterprise agentic deployment grows 8x from early 2025 to end-2026cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — Frontier model release with novel scientific discovery (e.g., new theorem, materials, drug target)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — ARC-AGI-2 or Frontier Math Tier 4 leaderboard plateau (no >5pp gain in 60 days)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Public Schmidt restatement or adjacent expert (Hassabis, Amodei) endorses novelty-ceiling thesiscascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Major frontier lab publicly walks back AGI/superintelligence timelinescascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Capex slowdown signal: at least one hyperscaler trims 2027 AI capex guidancecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-30 — Starcloud reaches unicorn status with $1.1B valuationpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Starcloud-2 launch with Blackwell-class GPU computecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Second well-funded space data center competitor announces orbital DC plancascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Space-based data center hits 1+ MW operational computepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — SpaceX 'orbital data center' constellation FCC application reaches public comment milestonecascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Starcloud or Sophia Space deploys >=10 H100/H200-class GPUs in commercial orbital clustercascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative VC funding to space-based AI infrastructure startups crosses $2Bcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First space-based AI inference SLA offered to enterprise customerscascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Optimus 1M-unit/yr Fremont line in prepcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Tesla AI5 chip enters production for Optimus & robotaxicascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla 2026 capex doubles to $20B+ for AI/roboticscascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Competing humanoid players (Figure, 1X) match vertical-integration playbookcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefupre #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla begins Optimus production at Fremont factorypre #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Tesla unveils Optimus V3 design publiclypre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla breaks ground on Giga Texas Optimus self-replicating factorycascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Optimus robot performs verified humanoid-robot manufacturing task on production linecascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Annualized Optimus production rate exceeds 100,000 unitscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Tesla Optimus mass production begins in Q3 2026 (>=1,000 units shipped)pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Humanoid robot autonomously completes high-skilled mechanical task (e.g., automotive engine assembly)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First skilled-trade union acknowledges automation displacement risk in collective bargainingpre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cognitive AI agents demonstrate >50% replacement rate for entry-level white-collar before humanoid does same for tradespre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — BLS or OECD employment statistics show high-skilled mechanical occupations resilient vs cognitive jobspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First grid stress event traced to AI data centerscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-30 — Starcloud raises $170M Series A to build orbital data centerspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-10 — Unitree R1 humanoid global launch at $4,370 starting pricepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Unitree opens first directly-operated retail store in Beijing (consumer access)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Quadruped robot prices fall to ~10K yuan ($1,400) entry-levelpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Unitree ships 10K-20K humanoid robots in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Chinese humanoid output grows 94% YoY; Unitree+AgiBot capture ~80% market sharecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-02-27 — USCIS finalizes weighted/merit-based H1B selectionpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI startup hiring shows measurable foreign-talent shortagecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Bipartisan AI immigration carve-out legislationcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Terafab Phase 1 pilot fab achieves first wafer-out at GigaTexaspre #5 · pending · 2027-07-01 — AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Volume production ramp at Terafab reaches 100K wafer-starts/month targetpre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Optimus humanoid + Tesla vehicle compute demand validates 'edge inference' thesispre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Terafab cumulative capex disclosed exceeds $25B initial budgetpre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Global advanced-node capacity tracked vs Terafab share — 1 TW/yr target requires >50x current ex-TSMC capacitycascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Starcloud public update on multi-GW orbital DC roadmappre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Meta-Overview Energy 1 GW space-solar reservation milestonepre #1 · pending · 2026-09-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Academic / industry consensus that earth-bound GW AI factories scale through 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Lunar mass-driver / SBSP feasibility study publishedpre #6 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · partial · 2026-04-30 — First single company to cross $5T market cappre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla / xAI / SpaceX combined enterprise value crosses $5Tpre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX completes IPO and provides public market-cap anchorcascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Optimus / robotaxi commercial revenue ramp validates AI/robotics premiumcascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First single company crosses $10T market cappre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla AI Day / Optimus Day demonstrates commercial customerspre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX IPO valuation comes in at or above $2T anchorcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — xAI / Grok crosses 100M weekly active users or $5B ARRcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Combined Musk-ecosystem valuation (TSLA+SpaceX+xAI+Boring+Neuralink) crosses NVDA market capcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Lap test fails: NVDA market cap stays >=2x combined Musk ecosystem valuationcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2042-12-21 — Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first.pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labspre #5 · pending · 2026-08-14 — Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Starship reaches 1 launch per week sustained from any single padpre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — FAA or LC-39A approves >100 Starship launches per year licensurepre #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Starship V4 with hourly-launch ambition unveiledpre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Aggregate Starship launches exceed 100 in calendar yearcascade #1 · pending · 2030-08-12 — Single launch every 5.3 minutes (274/day) achievedcascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-21 — Musk announces Terafab semiconductor fab (Tesla/xAI/SpaceX joint)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Intel publicly joins Terafab as foundry-manufacturing partnerpre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Terafab groundbreaking / construction permit filedcascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First Terafab tool installation / wafer test runcascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Terafab production reaches 100k wafer-starts/month (initial target)cascade #3 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Cascade: Terafab reaches 70% of TSMC output (~1M wspm) — Diamandis claimpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Day-one closing market capitalization of SpaceX upon listingpre #5 · pending · 2026-09-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Post-IPO secondary trading SpaceX market cap holds >=$2T for 30+ consecutive trading dayspre #2 · pending · 2027-02-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — NRC Fusion Machines rule comment period closespre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First state-level commercial fusion facility license issuedcascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — First fusion power delivery to commercial customer (Helion → Microsoft)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-11-30 — No Dyson sphere construction begun (resolves prediction MISS by 2029-11-30)cascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Google Project Suncatcher launches first 2 prototype TPU satellitespre #5 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starcloud closes Series B / IPO at $3B+ valuationpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — FCC approves first dedicated orbital-DC license / spectrum allocationpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First multi-satellite orbital compute cluster (≥10 nodes) demonstratedcascade #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — MISS confirmation: zero Dyson swarms by Wissner-Gross window endcascade #2 · pending · 2040-07-01 — Self-replicating space manufacturing demo (key Dyson swarm prerequisite)cascade #3 · pending · 2075-07-02 — First partial Dyson swarm satellite launched (single-satellite proof)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Edison Scientific Kosmos: AI scientist running on GPUs serves >50K researcherspre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — CMR Surgical Versius validated on Cosmos-H simulation for clinical deploymentpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier model solves first-Proof-Challenge math problem (5-page proof)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AlixLabs APS non-lithography pitch-splitting moves to commercial pilot at major foundrypre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — DARPA, IBM Research, or Imec publish breakthrough non-lithography patterning technique reaching sub-5nm features at lab pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — TSMC roadmap milestone: A14 (1.4nm) node enters HVM by 2028 (final pre-non-litho frontier confirmed)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-09-16 — First non-lithography manufactured chip reaches commercial volume at 2nm-equivalent feature densitycascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Joby Dubai vertiport network opens, paying-passenger commercial service beginspre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Archer Midnight enters FAA Stage 4 certificationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — First US commercial paying-passenger eVTOL flightcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Joby or Archer secures FAA Type Certification for eVTOLpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — First commercial passenger eVTOL flight in continental U.S.cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — ≥3 LA vertiports operating by Olympics opening (July 2028)cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-07-01 — California enforcement on driverless cars — net regulatory tightening on AVspre #5 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AV-only freight / delivery zones launchedpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First city pilot bans/restricts human driving in geofenced downtown corecascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Insurance pricing diverges — human drivers face material premiumcascade #1 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #4 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-07-01 — California AB 1777 robotaxi enforcement framework takes effect (notices of noncompliance to AV manufacturers)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — California bill mandating local human operators for robotaxi takeover advances out of committeepre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Waymo expands paid commercial robotaxi service to 7+ cities (including DC, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Nashville, San Dipre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First national TV ad campaign explicitly advocating restriction of human driving in AV-served regionspre #1 · pending · 2030-06-01 — First US state ballot initiative or referendum on banning human driving on specific roadwayscascade #1 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #3 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Waymo crosses 200M autonomous miles with continued safety performancepre #5 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Waymo crash-rate metric crosses 95% reduction threshold (matching Blundin claim)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Federal/state insurance regulators codify AV safety as superior to human driver baselinepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Tesla launches unsupervised FSD for consumer vehicles (Q4 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — No US state passes outright ban on human drivingpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AV-only zones / lanes proposed (not bans on humans elsewhere)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Through end of target window, no US state outlaws non-AV drivingpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Joby/Archer commercial piloted passenger service launches in major US metropre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First commercial autonomous eVTOL cargo flight (Q4 2026 controlled corridor)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — First autonomous passenger eVTOL flight (no pilot on board) in commercial usecascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: Autonomous eVTOL operations exceed piloted operations in any one US metrocascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — First Tesla Cybercab production VIN rolls off linepre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Tesla confirms <$30K retail price at production VIN milestonepre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Cybercab mass production ramp at Giga Texas (10-min cycle time)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First public Cybercab delivery / handover to customer or robotaxi fleetcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cascade: Stocktwits/fund-manager prediction of late-2026 delay materializescascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Tesla Cybercab SKU added to Tesla.com configurator with delivery slotspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-27 — Waymo charges $19.69/ride avg, $2-3/mile (Q1 2026 baseline)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Waymo / robotaxi operator advertises sub-$1/mile pricing tierpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Sensor / hardware costs fall 80% or more from 2025 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2028-10-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Retail robotaxi rides priced 40%+ cheaper than Uber/Lyft baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2030-03-01 — Robotaxi cost-per-mile falls to $0.30-$0.50 range (10x reduction vs 2026)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First major US homebuilder eliminates 2-car garage as standard in new SKUspre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Zoning code revisions reducing garage-required minimums in 5+ major US citiespre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — US household vehicle ownership rate falls below 1.5 per household (from 1.83)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Caribbean private island JamesEdition median listing price rises >=25% YoYpre #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major luxury hospitality brand opens dedicated private-island development arm citing AI-wealth demandpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — South Pacific (Fiji/French Polynesia/Vanuatu) private island transaction volume reaches all-time highpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Public sale price of a single Caribbean/Pacific private island clears $200M (well above 2026 $125M Bahamas Blue Island ccascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First California city adopts robotaxi-anticipating parking-minimum eliminationpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Waymo or Tesla Robotaxi reaches >100K rides/week in LA marketpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First major LA mall or commercial property converts >25% of lot to non-parking usepre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — LA residential vehicle ownership rate falls >15% from 2024 baselinecascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — LA garden / parkland conversion permit volume exceeds 1,000 acres cumulativecascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX achieves Starship V3 successful orbital flight with booster catchpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pad 2 at Starbase Texas comes online enabling higher cadencepre #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — FAA approves up to 44 Starship-Super Heavy launches annually (already-granted check)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hyperloop / Boring Company tunnel rail competing project public delay or cancellationcascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First Starship point-to-point demonstration mission announcement (cargo only)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major regulator (FRA, EASA, or equivalent) issues hyperloop cargo-only safety frameworkpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First commercial hyperloop cargo route enters revenue servicepre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Passenger hyperloop testing milestone: full-scale human passengers in vacuum tubepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Cumulative hyperloop passenger-revenue trips through 2027 remain below 10,000cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — If passenger-revenue trips exceed cargo-revenue tonnage by window close, claim failspre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Anthropic Economic Index update shows >25% of measurable work hours AI-touchedpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Goldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes update confirming 25% automatable-work-hours estimatepre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First major sector reports >40% of work-hours mediated by AI toolspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Aggregate enterprise AI-tool seat-count exceeds 100M paid users in USpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — BLS time-use survey shows measurable shift of work-hours from manual tasks to AI-supervisory taskspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If aggregate AI seat count plateaus below 50M by end-2027, 25% thesis on track to misscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Klarna reverses AI layoffs, rebuilds human service capacitypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Gartner predicts 50% of AI-driven layoffs reverse by 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — S&P 500 firm publicly confirms running with <=25% historical headcountcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-16 — ≥3 Fortune-100 firms cite AI as primary headcount driver in 10-Kpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major employer publicly issues 'AI-only' job postingpre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — First U.S. labor-rights litigation over AI-only hiring practicespre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Two S&P 500 companies disclose >20% AI-driven workforce reduction or restructurepre #5 · pending · 2027-06-24 — AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — AI-native unicorn replaces incumbent as category leader by market cap in any S&P sectorpre #2 · pending · 2028-12-14 — First Fortune 500 incumbent files Chapter 11 with AI-disruption explicitly citedpre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — S&P 500 turnover rate hits >35 entrants/exits annually (vs ~25 historical)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-08-01 — Cascade: McKinsey or BCG publishes 'half of large companies disrupted' framework retrospectivelycascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — AI-driven layoffs cited in BLS Challenger report cross 100K cumulative in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Customer-service / call-center labor cost displaced >50% in at least one Fortune 500 case studypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Median knowledge-work labor cost ratio (AI:human) falls below 5%cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First major sell-side report explicitly modeling AI-driven valuation compression for S&P 500pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI labor-displacement evidence: BLS reports white-collar employment falls YoYpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Chamath / Sacks publishes follow-up confirming or revising 2-7x compression callpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mass-incumbent earnings pre-announcement: 3+ S&P 500 companies cut multi-year guidance citing AI competitionpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — S&P 500 forward P/E falls below 18x for >6 monthscascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Cascade: 2x compression actually realized — S&P 500 forward P/E falls to ~11xcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Activist letters explicitly cite AI labor reduction as value-creation thesispre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Mega-cap multiple compression accelerates (cascade)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Russell 2000 P/E multiple compresses below 16x while EPS expandspre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Russell 2000 small/mid-cap aggregate FCF growth >50% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — High-labor-share small caps (consulting, staffing, BPO) show triple-digit FCF growthcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Long March 10 first uncrewed orbital flight testpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).pre #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Lanyue lander integrated landing/takeoff test completedpre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Robotic Mengzhou-Lanyue uncrewed lunar dress rehearsalpre #2 · pending · 2029-09-30 — China names two-astronaut crew for lunar missionpre #1 · pending · 2030-07-16 — Crewed Mengzhou launch on Long March 10 toward Mooncascade #1 · pending · 2031-05-02 — If landing succeeds: ILRS basic-station construction roadmap activatedcascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowpre #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — SpaceX uncrewed Starship lunar landing demonstration (HLS rehearsal)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Artemis III lunar-orbit rendezvous test (no crewed landing) revised mission profilepre #3 · pending · 2028-08-20 — Artemis IV crewed lunar landing (first since Apollo) launchespre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — First sustained 2-person lunar surface stay >=14 dayscascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #4 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NASA upgrades language from 'potential biosignature' to 'probable biosignature'pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Mars Sample Return mission funded for return-to-Earth analysispre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Independent confirmation paper from non-NASA teampre #6 · hit · 2025-09-10 — Perseverance Jezero biosignature reported as potentially biologicalpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-21 — Curiosity rover detects 20+ organic molecules at Glen Torridonpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Astrobiology paper confirms cosmic-ray-driven habitability for Mars/Europa/Enceladuspre #3 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Mars Sample Return mission launchescascade #2 · pending · 2030-08-16 — Europa Clipper begins science phase at Jupiterpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Boeing or Lockheed Martin formally restarts ULA divestiture talks (8-K, press, or banker mandate)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Vulcan rocket cadence reaches 12+ launches/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Definitive ULA acquisition announcementpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Antitrust / DoD CFIUS-style review filing for ULA transactioncascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Acquisition closes; ULA rebrands or integrates into buyerpre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Zhipu GLM-5 (744B params) trained on 100K Huawei Ascend chipspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Moonshot Kimi K2.6 ships as 1T-param MoE open modelcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — >=5 distinct organizations release trillion-parameter-class modelscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sub-1B-parameter model achieves GPT-3.5-class performance on standard benchmarkspre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Sub-100M-parameter model achieves competent task-specific performancepre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Sub-10M-parameter task-specific model demonstrates near-frontier on bounded domaincascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Few million parameters' end-state model class deployed on consumer edge devicespre #6 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — App-layer revenue overtakes foundation-model revenue at single AI labpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Frontier-model gross margin compresses below 50%pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Public market valuation gap widens — app companies / API companiespre #6 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First gigawatt-scale AI-purpose-built datacenter campus operationalpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First nuclear reactor restart explicitly contracted for AI datacenter (Three Mile Island/Microsoft style)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-recommended industrial process redesign deployed at Fortune 500 plant scalepre #1 · pending · 2027-11-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US electricity production grows >10% YoY explicitly tied to AI demandpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic / OpenAI announce internal custom-silicon strategypre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI ASIC market grows 44%+ in 2026 (Gartner/IDC validation)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Per-watt inference efficiency gap vs general GPU exceeds 10xpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First FDA pivotal approval where Phase 3 control arm is fully replaced by digital twincascade #1 · pending · 2030-05-17 — First sub-indication approved with zero traditional clinical trials (computational + Bayesian only)cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — S&P 500 hits new all-time high concurrent with rising tech layoffspre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tech sector announces 55K-120K net layoffs in 2026 with concurrent AI capexpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Anthropic Economic Index documents AI-driven occupational displacement in 5 or more BLS categoriespre #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Real median W-2 wages decline year-over-year while corporate profits hit recordcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Actuators confirmed >60% of humanoid material cost (over-engineering signal)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — ≥3 non-humanoid robot platforms adopt actuator/component supply from humanoid chainpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Actuator cost per unit drops ≥30% by 2027 due to volume scalingpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Non-humanoid robotics market growth accelerates ≥20% YoY post-supply-chain unlockpre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data center on-orbit and operational (Lumen Orbit prototype)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — SpaceX Starthink AI V1 70-140 kW satellites launchedpre #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Rocket equation barrier (mass-to-orbit cost) limits compute density rationalitypre #1 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Space-based solar power demonstration delivers >=1 MW to terrestrial gridcascade #1 · pending · 2031-03-17 — Orbital compute capacity exceeds 100 MW aggregatecascade #2 · pending · 2033-03-16 — First gigawatt-scale orbital constellation operational (Dyson swarm phase 1)cascade #3 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — 600K vehicles lost in 2026 due to chip scarcity (UBS forecast)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — TSMC Tainan + Arizona fabs reach volume productionpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Robotaxi fleet expansion explicitly chip-constrained in public disclosurespre #1 · pending · 2027-10-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla 2026 capex officially raised to $25B+ (board / earnings disclosure aligning with Terafab funding)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Terafab pilot facility produces first AI5 chips (small-batch production)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Terafab project commitments cross $150B (matching prediction's lower-bound total buildout)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · partial · 2026-03-31 — Activist hedge fund publicly uses LLM-generated open letter to public companypre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-native activist fund or platform launchespre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — SEC clarifies AI-generated 13D / 14a-8 letter authorship requirementscascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Hedge-fund cost-structure inverts as AI replaces analyst teamscascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Boards routinely receive AI-drafted shareholder communications volume >10x baselinecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-managed enterprise agent crosses verified $1B in autonomous purchasing/procurement decisions in single yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public AI-managed investment fund (BlackRock Aladdin Auto, JPMorgan IndexGPT, or new entrant) crosses $100B AUMpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier-model agent autonomously runs an SEC-registered fund or RIA business unitcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Federal Reserve, Treasury, or major central bank publishes formal study on AI agents as systemic financial-market actorscascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Federal regulator opens formal rulemaking or enforcement action specifically targeting AI agents in capital allocationcascade #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — S&P 500 or major economic index includes AI-managed entity as constituentcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslycascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-23 — Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-19 — Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.cascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-14 — Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basispre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mixed-fleet rideshare app standard becomes industry defaultpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AV market share remains <30% of rideshare miles in any major metropre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First non-rideshare hybrid AV deployment crosses 1M paid tripspre #1 · pending · 2028-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber confirms 20+ AV partnerships globally across freight, delivery, and robotaxispre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Uber/Pony.ai/Verne launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service in Zagrebpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Uber expands autonomous services to Hong Kong, Houston, Madrid, Zurichcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Uber launches Tokyo robotaxi pilot with Nissan and Wayvecascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-22 — Uber discloses operating in 15+ cities with AV partners on Q4 2026 earningscascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Waymo reaches 1 million weekly rides targetpre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Uber facilitates 1M+ autonomous rides per week globally (matches/passes Waymo)pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-01 — Uber autonomous ride volume exceeds Waymo direct-app rides in 2029cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentscascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · pending · 2027-03-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Tesla Robotaxi fleet exceeds 1,000 cumulative vehiclespre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla Cybercab or successor begins production deliveriespre #3 · pending · 2027-09-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Uber explicitly opens platform to Tesla owner-operator robotaxispre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If FSD v15 not released and disengagement rate has not improved by end-2027, Uber partnership unrealisticpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China multi-AV ecosystem: 4 robotaxi services compete in Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhoupre #5 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Zoox launches commercial robotaxi on Uber app in Las Vegaspre #4 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Combined non-Waymo AV providers operate >5K commercial vehicles in USpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — At least 5 distinct AV providers achieve commercial revenue >$100M annuallypre #6 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo signals shift from asset-heavy to asset-light fleet modelpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First AV fleet REIT or asset-backed AV financing vehicle launchedpre #2 · pending · 2028-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — Public AV fleet operator achieves 9%+ net yield to fleet investorspre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First investor or analyst report values the autonomous mobility TAM at >=$1Tpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Waymo plus Tesla combined commercial robotaxi presence in >=20 metro areaspre #3 · pending · 2027-12-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Combined US autonomous mobility commercial revenue exceeds $5B annualizedpre #1 · pending · 2028-10-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Autonomous mobility marketplace recognized by mainstream press as multi-hundred-billion categorypre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo crosses 1 million weekly autonomous rides milestonepre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Waymo or Tesla operate driverless service in 20+ US metrospre #3 · pending · 2027-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — NHTSA publishes official AV crash-rate report showing safety advantagepre #1 · pending · 2028-08-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — US traffic fatality rate falls 10%+ from 2024 baselinepre #6 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — NHTSA issues Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) update with explicit AV safety-case thresholdpre #4 · pending · 2027-10-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Independent crash data shows AVs >=2x safer than human drivers on per-mile basis (peer-reviewed)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-06 — Federal preemption framework replaces state-by-state AV patchworkcascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First state mandates AV-only routes/lanes during peak hours based on safety casepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla launches consumer-vehicle Unsupervised FSD to retail customerspre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NHTSA closes FSD traffic-safety investigation without enforcement actionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Cybercab production exceeds 5,000 units per quarterpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-01 — Human safety drivers fully removed from Tesla FSD backup role across all commercial fleetspre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First peer-reviewed AV safety study at 100M+ rider-only milespre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major insurance regulator approves AV-specific actuarial classpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — NHTSA publishes AV-fleet aggregate safety report endorsing safety-superiority claimpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First major auto insurer publishes AV-discount productpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Per-mile robotaxi fare drops below per-mile rideshare with human driverpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry-wide commercial auto liability premium index declinepre #1 · pending · 2028-09-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla, Zoox, Uber-Lucid-Nuro all simultaneously operating commercial robotaxi (multi-stack proof)pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-15 — NHTSA finalizes federal AV regulatory framework allowing multi-vendor competitionpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — 5+ AV stacks reach 100K+ rides/month independentlypre #2 · pending · 2028-06-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — International AV operators (Wayve UK, Baidu, Pony, Toyota) confirm US market entrypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AV fleets reach 10-20% of trips in operating citiespre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo fleet remains under 5K vehicles (vs ~250M US registered cars)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Average vehicle age in US passenger fleet remains >12 yearscascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Robotaxi share of US rideshare market reaches ~8% (Goldman target)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Robotaxi cost-per-mile to consumer falls below $1.50 in any US marketpre #5 · pending · 2027-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Driverless rides exceed 1% of total US rideshare market sharepre #3 · pending · 2028-04-28 — Industry body or McKinsey publishes 'autonomous adoption curve >50% in developed markets by 2035' studypre #2 · pending · 2028-10-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Waymo or Tesla operates commercial robotaxi service in 4+ countries outside UScascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-25 — Autonomous becomes very big part of developed marketspre #6 · pending · 2027-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Zero major Latin American or African capital city has commercial driverless servicepre #4 · pending · 2028-01-12 — WEF or World Bank report flags AV-divide between developed and developing marketspre #3 · pending · 2028-02-29 — India publishes national autonomous-vehicle regulatory frameworkpre #2 · pending · 2028-10-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Uber's developing-market driverless ride share remains <2% by 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-24 — Developing-market autonomous penetration delay confirmed by 2029pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotaxi fleets operate in 20+ markets across 10+ countriespre #5 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — US new-car sales decline 10%+ YoY in major metros with robotaxi servicepre #2 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Survey shows >25% of urban US adults consider not owning a car due to robotaxi accesspre #3 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla robotaxi undercuts Waymo fares by ~50% in head-to-head market (Dallas)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AAA / Edmunds publish 2026 cost-of-ownership analysis showing private car >$1.10/mi all-inpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Sixth-generation Waymo hardware deployment narrows cost gappre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Waymo reaches 1M weekly paid rides milestonepre #6 · pending · 2027-03-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — WeRide-Uber 1,200 robotaxi Middle East deployment substantially executed across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadhpre #4 · pending · 2028-01-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — WeRide-Uber expand from 3 of 15 contracted Middle East cities to >=8 citiespre #2 · pending · 2028-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — UAE/KSA robotaxi penetration on Uber app exceeds top US market share by AV-trip volumepre #6 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Nissan + Uber + Wayve Tokyo robotaxi pilot launchespre #4 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Wayve robotaxi service expands beyond London to second UK citypre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Wayve commercial robotaxi service expands to ≥3 UK citiespre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Joby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — GCAA or Abu Dhabi DoT issues operating authorization for eVTOL passenger servicecascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First fare-paying eVTOL passenger flight in UAEcascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Uber-app-bookable eVTOL leg goes live in UAEcascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — FAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) compliance flight testing completepre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Joby receives FAA Type Certificate for S4 eVTOLpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Joby commercial passenger service begins in US (NYC or LAX route)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Cascade: Joby manufacturing capacity reaches 4 aircraft/month (2027 target)cascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Uber Eats + Flytrex commercial drone delivery launches in US suburban marketspre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Drone delivery achieves <=15-minute order-to-doorstep medianpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — FAA Part 108 BVLOS rule finalized — enables scaled drone deliverypre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — DoorDash + Wing service expands to ≥5 US metrospre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Cumulative drone food deliveries cross 1M across USpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Uber Eats drone delivery expands to >=10 U.S. metro suburbscascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Drone delivery reaches >=1% of Uber Eats U.S. suburban orderscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Uber operates robotaxis in 15 US/global cities by end of 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Uber begins scaling global autonomous fleet toward 100,000 vehicles starting 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Total active drivers on Uber platform globally exceeds 8M (vs ~7.4M in 2024)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-17 — AV ride-hail surge demand creates 'driver multiplier' — net new gig roles grow despite AV penetrationpre #1 · pending · 2030-10-01 — Hybrid human+AV operations dominant model: 80%+ Uber trips still human-driven by 2030cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #4 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-07 — Q1 2026 Gross Bookings growth ≥17% YoYpre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — MAPC growth sustains ≥18% YoY through 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-15 — Annual gross bookings growth ≥20% for full year 2026pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-29 — Growth deceleration below 15% on either trips or audiencecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Uber-Zoox / Uber-Waymo robotaxi launch in 5+ new cities by year-endcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Driver-survey data (Edison/Pew/QuickTake) reports 20% intent-to-leave annual ratecascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Uber Q2 2026 / Q3 2026 earnings disclose driver attrition or active-driver countcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS Rideshare-driver category data update through 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Driver-headcount stabilization signal: Uber 2027 disclosed driver count flat or up despite robotaxi growthcascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-18 — Tesla robotaxi unsupervised launch in Dallas/Houston (Apr 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First academic/industry study confirms autonomous fleets generating net-new ride demand (vs cannibalizing human drivers)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Combined Waymo+Tesla US robotaxi fleet >10,000 active vehiclespre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Uber/Lyft total US gross bookings >=10% above pre-AV-launch baseline trendpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-27 — Waymo aggregate weekly rides reach 500K by end of Q1 2026pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Waymo expands Austin and Atlanta service zones in 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Austin/Atlanta Uber-Waymo partnership exceeds 25% of ride sharecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — S&P Global confirms Sun Belt cities outpace national autonomous growthcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo targets 1M weekly rides by end-2026cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Robotaxi fares hit 60% discount vs human-driven equivalent rides in mature marketspre #5 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Robotaxi available in >=20 US metros with sustained pricing competitionpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-23 — Personal car ownership rates begin measurable decline in robotaxi-saturated metrospre #1 · pending · 2028-11-07 — Average US ride-hail fare per mile crosses below $0.75 (sustained quarterly average)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber announces driver-to-fleet-manager onboarding pilot programpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First 1,000 driver-to-fleet-manager transitions documentedpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AV financing product / loan vehicle available to former rideshare driverscascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Uber reports 10,000+ small-fleet-owner partners in AV economycascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Uber-Nuro driverless Lucid robotaxi launches in SF Bay Areapre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Waymo crosses 1M weekly paid robotaxi ridespre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AV chip-supply bottleneck flagged by Uber/Waymo as scaling constraintpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Uber autonomous fleet target 100,000 vehicles announced for scale-upcascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Driver share of revenue compresses on US ride-hail platformscascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Uber-Zipline drone delivery partnership goes live (first US/global market)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber drone-delivery service expands to 5+ European countriespre #3 · pending · 2027-10-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Uber drone delivery hits 1M cumulative deliveries across all partnerspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Uber Eats + Flytrex launch suburban drone pilotspre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — FAA Part 108 final rule published (BVLOS at scale)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Drone delivery hits 100M+ Americans in service areapre #1 · pending · 2028-01-16 — Uber Eats reports suburban drone GMV materially in 10-Kcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-04 — Uber Q4 2025 delivery revenue grows 30% YoY to $4.9Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Uber adds 1000+ new retail partners in 2026 including marquee namescascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Non-restaurant delivery growth rate exceeds rideshare growth rate in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Dollar Tree partnership generates $500M incremental revenue by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber Eats expands to 7 new EU marketspre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Uber retail partner network exceeds 60,000 locationspre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Uber Shop For Me launches with cross-platform fulfillmentpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Uber delivery gross bookings cross $80B annualized run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Uber Eats delivery selection coverage >=50% of addressable market in top countriescascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Tesla Cybercab first production VIN rolls off linepre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Tesla confirms Cybercab retail price under $30,000cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo publishes per-vehicle build cost figure for Gen 5/6 robotaxicascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Waymo expands fleet beyond 1,500 vehicles or signs >2 city expansion dealcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Tesla launches Cybercab ride-hailing service in pilot citycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Joby Dubai vertiport at DXB completes construction and FAA/GCAA inspectionpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GCAA / UAE regulator issues commercial operating certificate to Jobycascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First paid passenger flight on Joby Dubai networkcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-16 — Average measured travel-time savings vs ground transport publishedcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Abu Dhabi-specific Joby agreement or first flight (note: Archer is current ADIO partner)cascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Robotaxis surpass 5% of US ride-hailing rides nationallypre #3 · pending · 2028-10-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Major US auto manufacturer reports YoY decline in private vehicle sales attributed to AVpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Mainstream news outlets characterize 'autonomous revolution' as larger societal shift than ride-hailing erapre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Uber Rivian R2 robotaxi partnership announcementpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Tesla Robotaxi service operational in 7+ US citiespre #4 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Majority of new vehicles sold in US with Level 2+ ADAS as standardpre #1 · pending · 2028-08-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-28 — First US state passes legislation reducing driver-license testing or relaxing requirements due to AV adoptionpre #4 · pending · 2028-04-14 — Major US insurer launches 'driver-optional' or 'no-driver' policy productpre #3 · pending · 2028-10-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — US driver's license issuance rate to 16-19 year olds drops below 60%pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-30 — Driverless miles exceed 5% of total US light-vehicle miles traveled annuallycascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-27 — Cultural recognition of declining driver populationpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Commercial passenger flights begin in Dubaipre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Joby announces multi-vertiport network plan for NY/LApre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Vertiport handles ≥10K passengers / month at single sitepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — JFK and LAX vertiport facilities (Joby + Delta) reach permitting milestonepre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — First commercial paid eVTOL passenger flight in USpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Five US airport-collocated vertiports operationalcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First major-city downtown vertiport operational (NYC/LA/Chicago/etc.)cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Waymo carries $5M primary liability + MedPay insurance layerpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First state codifies layered AV insurance structure into lawpre #3 · pending · 2027-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Product liability becomes routine third layer in major AV insurance disputespre #1 · pending · 2028-08-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — AV insurance market crosses $5B in annual premium volumepre #6 · hit · 2026-03-27 — Waymo provides 500K paid rides/week, on path to 1M/week by end-2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Survey-based AV trust crosses 80% in major US robotaxi marketspre #2 · pending · 2028-09-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Robotaxi rides surpass human-driven rideshare on at least one major Uber route/citypre #6 · hit · 2025-09-15 — Robotaxi cost projected 40% below Uber/Lyft by 2027pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber Autonomous Solutions launches with cost-per-mile reduction stated objectivepre #4 · pending · 2027-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First robotaxi market with average price <50% of human ride-hail equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Robotaxi market reaches $100B+ valuation by 2030pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — China-US capital markets friction eases (CSRC-SEC PCAOB cooperation continues)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber announces material partial monetization of its DiDi stakepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber reports DiDi mark-to-market gain >$2B in single quarterpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — DiDi relists on a major exchange (Hong Kong or US re-listing)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Uber declares special dividend or buyback funded by DiDi proceedscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialcascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Uber-Pony.ai commercial robotaxi service launches in a European citycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Khosrowshahi confirms Uber operating with Chinese AV partners in 10+ countries by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Uber-Baidu robotaxi launches in London or other non-China non-US marketcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Uber-WeRide expands to 5+ Middle East/Europe cities beyond Saudi Arabia/Dubaicascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Uber discloses cumulative robotaxi rides via Chinese AV partners crossing 1Mcascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Uber files investor update splitting AV ride economics from human-driver baselinepre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — NHTSA proposes uniform federal insurance framework for AV operatorspre #5 · pending · 2027-10-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Landmark AV liability case reaches state appellate court with binding precedentpre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Personal-use AV insurance bundles launch tied to specific vehicle make/modelpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-03 — Industry consolidates around platform-liability model (vs driver-liability) as defaultpre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2025-10-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-27 — Waymo reaches 500K weekly paid robotaxi rides across 10 US citiespre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Uber commits >$10B to autonomous vehicle programcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Waymo targets 1M weekly rides milestonecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Uber launches robotaxi services in 15+ cities by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AV trips remain under 5% of total Uber volume through 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo + Tesla combined US robotaxi fleet exceeds 5,000 vehicles by end of 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First state issues fully unsupervised AV operator permit covering 5+ metro areaspre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Annual US new-vehicle sales with full-self-driving hardware crosses 50% markcascade #1 · pending · 2029-10-31 — Q4 2029 — driver's license still required in Ilia's home statecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-06-22 — Software space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providerscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Waymo (GOOGL) crosses 250K weekly rides across all marketscascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Pony.ai expands robotaxi fleet to 3,000 vehicles in 20+ citiescascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — WeRide robotaxi fleet crosses 2,600 vehiclescascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla Robotaxi national service launches in 5+ U.S. metroscascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First U.S. state files legislation reducing driver-license renewal cadence citing AVscascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Auto insurance industry reports first material premium decline due to AV displacementpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — BCG: 'AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces' publishedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs: AI subtracts 16K jobs/month, +0.1pp unemploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Aggregate US employment grows YoY despite AI deployment in 2026-2027pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Entry-level postings fall to <35% of all job postingscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Entry-level white-collar unemployment in 20-30 age cohort stops risingpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US unemployment rate stabilizes or declines despite AI rolloutpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major reskilling-program scale-up by federal/state governments tied to AI displacementpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-30 — BLS reports first quarter where AI-related new occupations exceed displacementspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If unemployment rises above Amodei 10-20% scenario by end-2027, society-adjustment thesis failspre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First peer-reviewed empirical study confirms net job creation in AI-augmented occupationscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Federal AI-specific worker support legislation introduced with bipartisan co-sponsorshippre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve Beige Book or FOMC statement formally cites AI labor displacement as macroeconomic concernpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — G7 leaders' summit communique includes substantive AI labor-market adjustment provisionpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — BLS or OECD reports AI-attributed unemployment rate above 4% in any G7 economypre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major US state passes AI-displacement-specific UI extension, retraining program, or basic income statutecascade #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Tier-1 social-unrest event (sustained protest, strike, or political movement) explicitly attributed to AI displacementcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Computershare 2027 survey: equity-plan participation among employers exceeds 90%pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal or state legislation introduced for AI-dividend or worker-equity-share programpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major union (UAW, SAG-AFTRA, Teamsters) negotiates AI-equity clause in CBApre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Employee Ownership Fairness Act or successor legislation passespre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — ESOP participant count grows >10% above 2026 baseline of 15.1Mpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no federal legislation moves and ESOP growth flatlines through 2027, claim direction weakenspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Uber/Lucid commitment expanded to 35,000 robotaxi vehiclespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotaxi service in 10+ Uber cities by year-end 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Uber's published EV-share metric exceeds 30% in top marketscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #6 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber AI budget exhausted on adjacent-field bets in 2025cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Uber announces or scales robotaxi partnership in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Uber R&D spend grows >20% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Uber publicly discontinues at least one adjacent-field initiativecascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Uber AI Solutions expands to 30 countriespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Uber expands into autonomous fleet operations (rhyming with mobility)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber refrains from non-rhyming adjacency (e.g., social media, gaming)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber AI Solutions revenue disclosed as separate line itemcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2025-09-15 — Uber launches data-labeling earning option for US driverspre #5 · hit · 2026-03-31 — uLabel/uTask platform deployed and operationalpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — 100K+ Uber drivers participate in AI labeling taskscascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — New non-driver workers onboard through Uber AI platformcascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Uber AI Solutions becomes top-3 global data labeling vendorcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Khosrowshahi or peer CEO concedes AI replaces majority of jobs (10y horizon)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Uber driver count grows YoY despite robotaxi/AV pilotscascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Uber per-employee revenue grows >=20% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Uber announces dedicated AI-augmented support roles (vs eliminating)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Uber 2026 headcount remains within +/-10% of 2025 baselinecascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Enterprise AI 'reimagine' threshold: >=50% of Fortune 500 publish AI-first strategypre #3 · pending · 2027-10-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-31 — S&P 500 IT spend on AI tooling exceeds 25% of total IT budgetpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: AI-native startups capture >=20% of new B2B SaaS market sharecascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: BLS labor data shows >=10% headcount reduction in 'traditional knowledge work' categoriespre #6 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Colossal announces first viable mammoth embryopre #4 · pending · 2027-02-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal raises follow-on round at >=$15B valuation (50% step-up)pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First Colossal commercial spinout (Form Bio, Breaking) reaches >=$5Bcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Colossal IPO filing OR direct-listing announcement at >=$20Bcascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First sovereign government signs paid contract with Colossal for endangered-species genetic rescuepre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Colossal Biovault reaches biobanking milestone (>1000 endangered-species cell lines stored)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Australian government allocates funding for thylacine reintroduction feasibility studypre #3 · pending · 2027-10-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Multi-government consortium model emerges (UN/CITES adjacent) with paid Colossal servicespre #1 · pending · 2028-07-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Colossal's de-extinction portfolio reaches 8+ named species (mammoth, dire wolf, dodo, thylacine, moa, bluebuck, +2)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Colossal publishes first artificial-womb feasibility study for elephant-class embryospre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First mammoth calf born to elephant surrogate (or via artificial womb)pre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Computer-vision-based embryo selection deployed at scale (>1000 embryos screened/year)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Founder publicly reaffirms 2028 mammoth target at major venuepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Sixth de-extinction species (bluebuck) added to portfoliopre #4 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First successful mammoth-edited Asian elephant embryo transferpre #2 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First viable mammoth-trait Asian elephant calf birth (22-month gestation)pre #2 · hit · 2025-01-30 — Khaleesi (third direwolf, female) birth announcementpre #1 · hit · 2025-10-01 — Direwolf pack social-development milestone (1-year birthday update)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Colossal announces new de-extinct species (bluebuck or other)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Colossal announces additional direwolves (4th-onwards)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Woolly mammoth first birth (2028 target tracking)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Engineered PETase enzyme paper (Bhattacharya et al.) published in FEBS Journal — highly active polyester degradationpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — PETase/MHETase variant with gut-compatible pH/temperature window (pH 1-7, 37C) demonstratedpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First published in-vivo (animal model) study of orally-delivered plastic-degrading enzyme on microplastic absorptioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Supplement company / startup announces clinical work toward microplastic-degrading oral productpre #6 · pending · 2027-06-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Breaking publishes preclinical paper or whitepaper on human-body microplastic supplementpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Breaking environmental product (plastic-degrading microbe) hits commercial scale milestonepre #3 · pending · 2028-01-13 — First peer-reviewed human RCT data on a microplastic-clearance interventionpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Breaking launches DTC supplement product or files IND with FDApre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Colossal announces 4th-6th spinout under 'dozen companies' planpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Colossal raises follow-on at ≥$15B valuationpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Form Bio reaches $100M ARR or $1B valuation milestonepre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Breaking (plastic-degradation spinout) commercial pilot launchedpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First Colossal spinout reaches IPO or >=$1B unicorn valuationcascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Colossal spinout count reaches 12 companies (Diamandis claim)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Colossal mammoth embryos ready for elephant surrogate implantation by end of 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — EXTEND artificial womb begins first-in-human clinical trials for premature infantspre #4 · pending · 2027-06-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First woolly mammoth calf born from edited Asian elephant surrogatepre #2 · pending · 2028-07-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-10-01 — Productionized de-extinction species via artificial wombs (event)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Viagen acquisition integration enables productionized cloning pipelinepre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Government MoU or co-funded program announced for endangered-species cloningpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Colossal cloned 4 red wolves announcedpre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Bluebuck de-extinction project announcedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Mexican government CONANP partnership advances vaquita biobankcascade #2 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First mammoth-edited embryo implanted in elephant surrogatepre #5 · pending · 2028-06-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Synthetic biology demonstration of multi-locus designer trait combination (>100 simultaneous edits)pre #3 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First live mammoth birth (or fail) — primary milestone for de-extinction technologypre #2 · pending · 2029-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Major regulatory framework explicitly addresses designer organism creationcascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — First synthetic-genome-derived mammal demonstrating non-natural trait combinationpre #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First successful CRISPR-engineered chytrid-resistant frog line published in peer-reviewed journalpre #5 · pending · 2028-01-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Colossal Foundation or partner publishes Bd-resistance gene multiplex editing protocol in great spotted tree frog or corpre #3 · pending · 2028-11-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First field release of gene-edited chytrid-resistant amphibian population approved by national wildlife regulatorpre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — IUCN Red List downlists at least one chytrid-affected species citing genetic-rescue interventionpre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-12 — Colossal's 'Lamm $5.4T invasive-species' narrative is repeatedly cited by analystspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Colossal-affiliated Tropic Biosciences reports disease-resistant crop deploymentcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Industry analyst sizes the disease-resistant ag-biotech market explicitlycascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Foundation EEHV mRNA vaccine expands to additional zoos/herdscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First publicly traded comp pure-play in disease-resistant biotech announces revenuecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · miss · 2023-09-04 — IPBES authoritative figure is $423B/year (NOT $5.4T)pre #5 · hit · 2023-09-04 — Costs quadrupled every decade since 1970pre #4 · hit · 2025-05-15 — Phys.org May 2025 study cumulative cost since 1960 exceeds $2.2Tpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government allocates >$1B specifically to invasive species controlcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Colossal Biosciences or competitor announces commercial invasive species removal contractcascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Updated IPBES estimate publishes in next assessment cyclecascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · miss · 2025-11-30 — USDA NIFA estimates US invasive species impact at $137B/year (NOT $500B)pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Global biological invasion costs reach US$ 26B+/year in 2010spre #4 · hit · 2025-12-31 — North America cumulative invasion cost crosses $1.3T (1960-2017)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — USDA invasive species program funding increasecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences expands de-extinction work as invasive species responsecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First confirmed NWS case in continental US livestock (TX/AZ/NM)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Cattle futures spike >15% on screwworm newspre #2 · pending · 2027-04-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — ≥10% Texas cattle herd impact (USDA NASS)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Gene drive screwworm efficiency demonstrated in labpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — USDA south Texas sterile fly facility operational (100M flies/wk)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Regulatory framework for gene drive insect release proposedpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First field/contained release of gene-drive screwwormcascade #2 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Measurable population suppression of screwworm in target zonecascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences or Ben Lamm publicly announces gene-drive commercial business unitcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Gene-drive Phase III mosquito field trial starts in sub-Saharan Africacascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — International gene-drive governance framework formalized (Convention on Biological Diversity / WHO)cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First gene-drive-derived commercial product (mosquito control, agricultural pest control) shipscascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: Gene-drive market sizing reports cumulative TAM > $100B in named reportcascade #6 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Cascade: Major rogue or unauthorized gene-drive release becomes geopolitical incidentpre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-30 — Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered specipre #5 · pending · 2026-08-14 — Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mammoth-like elephant cell line crosses 100 simultaneous editspre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mammoth-like Asian elephant embryo producedpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Colossal demonstrates ≥500 simultaneous edits in any cell linecascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Colossal achieves ≥1,000 simultaneous edits across genomecascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.cascade #1 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First peer-reviewed publication applying Colossal's multiplex-edit pipeline to human-disease modelpre #4 · pending · 2028-05-03 — Colossal/spinout signs licensing deal with established biopharma for gene-editing platformpre #3 · pending · 2028-05-03 — Colossal IPO or strategic exit unlocks separate human-therapeutics valuationpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-18 — First IND (Investigational New Drug) filing or pre-IND meeting for Colossal-derived human therapypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Colossal publicly announces 5x prior-largest DNA delivery already achievedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Colossal makes Bluebuck de-extinction breakthrough disclosurepre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Colossal demonstrates DNA delivery in small mammal first as scaling steppre #2 · pending · 2026-07-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Form Bio (Colossal spinout) commercializes large DNA delivery technologycascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Colossal claims 20x prior-largest DNA synthesis delivery by year-end 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Peer review or publication validates Colossal's large-cassette delivery techniquecascade #3 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Astromech reaches first paying customer or major partnership outside Colossalpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Astromech valuation step-up and Series B raisepre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Colossal publishes peer-reviewed paper on its synthetic-biology modeling stackpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Form Bio platform reports cross-pharma adoption metricspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Mammoth/thylacine de-extinction proof-of-concept embryo or birthcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Colossal publishes peer-reviewed paper on hydrogel/microfluidic embryo culture for elephant ARTpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First US fertility clinic adopts microfluidic embryo culture commerciallypre #3 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Colossal commercial spinout for human IVF tech announcedpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — ASRM or ESHRE recognizes new IVF embryo grading scale tied to microfluidic biomarkerspre #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — IUCN formally endorses synthetic-biology assisted-evolution for conservationpre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First gene-edited endangered animal released into wild monitored habitatpre #4 · pending · 2028-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Heat-tolerant coral or amphibian gene-edit deployed at reef/wetland scalepre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Treaty-level framework on environmental release of edited organisms enters forcepre #1 · pending · 2029-04-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-11-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First woolly mammoth birth occurspre #3 · pending · 2028-09-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Regulatory approval secured for first reintroduction sitepre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First de-extincted species pilot release into managed habitatpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Colossal publicly describes gene drive as reversible (rollback feature documented)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Peer-reviewed publication on Colossal's reversible gene drive containment mechanismcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Independent demonstration of rollback in caged trialcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Critical scientific pushback (rebuttal paper questioning rollback feasibility)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Regulatory approval (USDA APHIS / NZ EPA / Australia OGTR) for first wild-release pilotcascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal artificial-womb spinout announcedpre #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Breaking Inc. (plastics microbe spinout) reaches commercial deploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Colossal announces 5th technology spinoutpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Colossal Biosciences announces second sovereign-state Biovault partnership (post-UAE)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Dubai Museum of the Future BioVault facility opens to public visitorspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Colossal banks first 100 of the 10,000-species targetpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Colossal Series D or pre-IPO financing round closes at >=$10B valuationcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Third or more sovereign Biovault site under construction simultaneously (network confirmation)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — First de-extinction or rewilded species sourced from BioVault genetic materialpre #6 · pending · 2026-08-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Dubai facility opens with public-facing living-lab programspre #3 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-01 — First UAE biovault species samples archived (≥1000 specimens)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Colossal expands to second international living-lab sitepre #6 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Synthetic biology total market crosses $50B annual revenuepre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-designed protein / molecule receives first FDA new molecular entity approvalpre #3 · pending · 2028-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-05-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Synthetic biology firm achieves $100B+ market capcascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Synthetic biology revenue equals 1% of US GDP (~$300B/yr)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Carbios Longlaville facility online (50K t/yr PET)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Breaking secures Series A funding ≥$50Mpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Breaking demonstrates pilot-scale facility for ≥1 non-PET plasticpre #2 · pending · 2028-05-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Independent benchmark confirms Breaking enzymes outperform PETase variants on rate/areapre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX files confidential S-1 with SEC at $2T target valuationpre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-26 — SpaceX 2025 revenue confirms $15.6B baselinepre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — SpaceX S-1 prospectus made publicpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-24 — SpaceX prices IPO and begins tradingcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #6 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Starlink crosses 10M subscribers, tracking $20B revenue in 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files for IPO at $2T+ valuationpre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Starlink monthly net additions reach 1.5M users (2x 2025 pace)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Starlink EBITDA margins exceed 60% confirming profitability scalecascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — SpaceX 2026 total revenue lands $22-30B range (above doubling)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files draft S-1 with SECpre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-08 — SpaceX IPO prices in $1.75T-$2T rangecascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink subscriber count crosses 12Mcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — SpaceX market cap crosses $3T post-IPOcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic files S-1 with SECcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI files S-1 with SECcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic IPO completes listingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI IPO completes listingcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-01 — AI-IPO retail-demand absorption affecting subsequent listingscascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Either OpenAI or Anthropic crosses $1T public-market valuationpre #6 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding roundpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SECpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPOpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-08 — OpenAI S-1 publicly available; roadshow beginspre #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI begins NYSE/Nasdaq trading by end-2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic confidential S-1 filingcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SECpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-25 — Polymarket SpaceX June IPO odds >=60%pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-08 — SpaceX public S-1 filing in late April / May 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-25 — ARK Invest SpaceX IPO Guide published with $1.75T+ valuation frameworkpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — SpaceX road show begins in June 2026 (10-14 day institutional pitch)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-23 — SpaceX IPO prices and lists on Nasdaqcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-16 — Tesla $2B investment in xAI as Master Plan IV vehiclepre #5 · hit · 2026-01-29 — Bloomberg/Reuters reports Musk weighing SpaceX-Tesla-xAI mega-mergerpre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-03 — SpaceX-xAI merger closed at $1.25T combined valuationpre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — $573M+ web of related-party transactions disclosed in Tesla 10-Kcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla-SpaceX or Tesla-xAI formal merger agreement signedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Tesla quarterly earnings demonstrate continued financial health (positive FCF, no covenant breaches)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Dan Ives or other major analyst publicly retracts the '80-90% chance SpaceX-Tesla merger by H1 2027' callpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — SpaceX post-IPO operating performance solid (Starlink revenue, Starship cadence)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — End of H1 2027 reached without a Definitive Merger Agreement filed with SECpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — If merger occurs, accompanying disclosure cites distress or capital need (validating conditional)cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshippre #5 · pending · 2029-06-08 — Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own.pre #4 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Tesla-SpaceX-xAI combined entity (or aggregate cap-table) reaches $10Tpre #2 · pending · 2029-11-08 — Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-12 — Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI individually crosses $5T market capcascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Grok 5 public launch with AGI claimpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla board adopts AI-augmented decision tooling publiclypre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Musk publicly acknowledges plan to delegate CEO functions to AIpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First Fortune 500 company appoints AI agent to executive rolepre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Grok 6 or successor demonstrates sustained agentic autonomy on operational taskscascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-31 — RS-25 engines ship from Stennis to KSC for Artemis III core stage integrationpre #4 · pending · 2026-08-09 — SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Artemis III SLS core stage fully integrated in VABpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Starship HLS or Blue Moon flight-ready demonstrator on orbitcascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Artemis 3 launches in 2027 target windowcascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-05 — Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-08-09 — SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — NASA Artemis II crewed mission completes lunar flybypre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon completes uncrewed lunar landing demonstrationpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Lunar Gateway PPE/HALO modules launched and operationalpre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Artemis IV crewed launch occurscascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #4 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #5 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Starship V3 inaugural flightpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public confirmation of skipped 2026 Mars windowpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Full-scale Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demonstration attemptedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Artemis HLS lunar lander schedule slip announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Updated Mars timeline pushes uncrewed mission to 2028-29 windowpre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk publicly delays Starship Mars launch beyond 2026 transfer windowpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Cumulative orbital propellant transfer of >=100 metric tons demonstrated in single Starship testcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First Starship Block 3 successful flight test (Mars-capable variant)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — November 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window closes without Starship launchcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: SpaceX shifts focus to Artemis 3 lunar mission as primary near-term Starship deploymentcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.pre #6 · pending · 2028-07-10 — For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).pre #5 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.pre #4 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.pre #3 · pending · 2029-10-31 — Approach phase begins (~6 months before Jupiter Orbit Insertion)pre #2 · pending · 2030-04-10 — Ganymede gravity-assist flyby (~120 km altitude, ~12h before JOI)pre #1 · pending · 2030-04-11 — Jupiter Orbit Insertion (JOI) burncascade #1 · pending · 2031-04-01 — Cascade: First of ~49 Europa science flybys beginscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Helicity Space demonstrates plasma jet reconnection (pre-fusion-net-gain milestone)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — NASA NIAC awards Phase II/III to compact-fusion propulsion conceptpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Hyperscaler announces orbital data-center deployment (counter-thesis check)pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First crewed/uncrewed spacecraft contract using compact fusion propulsioncascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Compact fusion propulsion sub-scale flight demonstrationcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Breakthrough Starshot Phase 2 funding / lightsail-flight test announcementpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Caltech / Brown / NASA lightsail material breakthrough at gram-scalecascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Public consensus on lightsail+laser as 'most plausible' interstellar approach (cascade)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Mind-uploading / connectome scanning prototype at mouse-brain scalecascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Terawatt-scale phased-array laser prototype demonstratedpre #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.pre #5 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Mengzhou crewed spacecraft uncrewed flight test in lunar transfer orbitpre #4 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Full uncrewed Mengzhou-Lanyue lunar dress rehearsal missionpre #3 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshippre #2 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — Two LM-10 launches within 6 weeks (crew + lander) demonstrating dual-launch cadencecascade #1 · pending · 2031-04-16 — If landing succeeds: China publishes ILRS construction plan for 2031-2035 phasecascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 system card + Deployment Safety Hub publishedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API (April 24, 2026)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — GPT-5.5 DAU/cost ratio enables broad adoption (>=10x developer activity vs 5.4)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Polymarket Mythos release-by-June-30 odds drop below 30%pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic discloses Pentagon/USG Mythos contract valuecascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Polymarket Mythos public release odds remain below 20% by Q3 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Mythos remains gated through end of 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Polymarket 'Grok 5 by Q2 2026' market resolvescascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Grok 5 model card, weights, or API access publicly availablecascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-16 — xAI provides updated guidance on Grok 5 launch windowcascade #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Grok 5 benchmark performance disclosed (HLE, MMLU-Pro, GPQA, ARC-AGI)cascade #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Cascade: Grok 5 launch triggers >5% intraday spike in NVDA / xAI competitor stockscascade #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: xAI valuation re-marks above $300B post Grok 5 launchpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-23 — Grok 5 publicly launchescascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic accelerates next-gen model release calendar (Claude 5 / Opus 5)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-29 — OpenAI catches up to Anthropic in benchmark performance on >=2 of {SWE-bench Verified, ARC-AGI, GPQA-Diamond}cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Anthropic safety / alignment incident reported during accelerated release pressurecascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Anthropic loses pricing power; commercial deals re-priced down >10%cascade #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Dario Amodei or Anthropic exec publicly addresses competitive-pressure release tradeoffspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Sam Altman publishes follow-up cyberattack warning at congressional hearing or major venuecascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenAI / Anthropic publish public model misuse data showing AI-aided cyber campaignscascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Major nation-state-attributed AI-augmented cyberattack on critical infrastructurecascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — White House announces National AI Cybersecurity Initiative with frontier-lab partnershipcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cybersecurity insurance pricing for AI-related risks rises >50% YoYcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI ships GPT-5.5-Cyber to critical cyber defenderspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-15 — First publicly attributed AI-agent-led major cyber incidentpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — OpenAI / Anthropic threat-disruption reports document scaled AI-agent cyber abusecascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Critical-infrastructure-grade cyber incident attributed to open-weights frontier modelcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Federal/international biosecurity AI policy proposalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — First documented attempted misuse of AI for bio R&Dcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-08 — WWDC 2026 keynote announces Gemini-derived Apple Intelligence / Foundation Modelpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — Smaller-than-public framing: Apple may NOT credit Gemini lineage publiclycascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — iOS 27 / iPhone 18 ships with Gemini-derived on-device modelcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent benchmarking confirms Gemini lineage in Apple Foundation Modelcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-04 — Major analyst coverage characterizes V4 reaction as 'priced in' or 'muted' relative to R1 / V3pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-30 — Cascade: AI-capex/hyperscaler stocks regain or surpass pre-V4 levels within 30 days post launchcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cascade: Chinese open-source AI parity narrative becomes consensus, no longer market-movingcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Amazon launches OpenClaw-style enterprise agent — major incumbent enters categorypre #5 · pending · 2026-10-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Agentic AI ARR milestone — combined ecosystem (frontier labs + cloud agents + OpenClaw deployments) crosses $200B ARRpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Gartner / IDC / Bain reach $1T agentic-AI market consensus year-end 2027pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major jurisdiction introduces draft AI personhood legislationpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Major court issues binding ruling that explicitly addresses AI legal status (positive or negative)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — First narrow contracting/agency right granted to AI system in any jurisdictionpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no jurisdiction has even drafted limited AI personhood by end-2027, claim probability decayspre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First major liability case / regulatory action explicitly faulting human-authored code over AI alternativepre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Code-vs-driver legal recognition timing test — code recognition arrives firstpre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — AV legal landmark — first jurisdiction making human driving a presumptive negligence baseline vs autonomy on equipped ropre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi proves micro-team unicorn template ($401M Y1 revenue, $1.8B run-rate, ~2 FTE)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cohort accumulation — at least 10 named micro-team (<=5 FTE) companies cross $50M ARRpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cohort scaling — 100+ named micro-team companies cross $10M ARR (millions-of-small-businesses signal)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Power-law tail formalized — at least 1 micro-team company crosses $10B valuation, multiple at $1Bpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Intel 18A yield disclosure at or above 65% commercial thresholdpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Terafab Phase 1 groundbreaking or site selection finalized in Austin TXpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Intel external foundry revenue run-rate visibility above $1B annualizedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Tesla AI6 chip first tape-out at Intel 18Acascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Intel external foundry revenue exceeds $4B annualized (Diamandis target validated)cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-09 — Bernstein / external analysts publish capex feasibility critique (~$5T to hit 1 TW)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Tesla picks Intel 14A process for Austin Terafab pilot AI5 chippre #4 · pending · 2026-09-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Austin Terafab pilot fab achieves first wafer-out (small-batch AI5 production)pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Terafab reaches initial 100K wafer-starts/month capacity milestonepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — China controls ~60% global power transformer production capacity (supply constraint)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-08 — Transformer lead times confirmed at 5+ years (vs prior 24-30 months)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — 30-50% of planned 2026 capacity slips to 2028 per industry analysiscascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Hyperscaler capex still >$650B in 2026 despite delays (creates inflation risk)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national averagepre #5 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-09 — About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annuallypre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Tesla Robotaxi unsupervised commercial service in ≥3 metrospre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First FAA Type Certificate for eVTOL (Joby or Archer)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Commercial eVTOL passenger service operating in LA by July 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Robotaxi $/mile drops below $2 in flagship metropre #5 · pending · 2027-04-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Subscription mobility product launches (Uber One AV, Waymo Plus)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Goldman / Morgan Stanley / RethinkX update peak-car forecast earlierpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First major US city sees measurable car-ownership decline (>5%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AlixLabs APS non-lithography sub-10nm pitch-splitting integrates with 300mm production waferspre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Karman+ High Frontier mission launches asteroid sample retrieval demonstrationpre #2 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Asteroid mining market reaches $5.4B revenue by 2030 (21% CAGR)pre #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First commercial in-space manufactured semiconductor or rare-earth product returns to Earthcascade #1 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #3 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier-lab evaluation milestone — labs publicly report unsafe-eval-bypass incidents of pre-deployment modelspre #4 · pending · 2027-04-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First credibly attributed AI-uplifted bio/cyber catastrophic-threshold incident (or absence thereof)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — International binding-treaty-level AI safety mechanism (Politburo / G7 / UN level) ratified or near-ratifiedpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Sam Altman / Dario Amodei / Demis Hassabis publicly endorse zero-marginal-cost framingpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cost-of-intelligence per token falls 10x year-over-yearpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Mainstream-economist counter-argument published (Krugman / Acemoglu / Summers)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major AI service rolls out free unlimited tier to >100M userscascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Energy / compute scarcity contradicts 'zero marginal cost' narrativecascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlycascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic publishes Mythos pricing per million tokens that is 4-6x Opus 4.7 ($5/$25)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Mythos availability gated to paid Anthropic Max/Enterprise tiers onlycascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — At least 1 published benchmark shows Mythos >=10% above Opus 4.7 on agentic evalcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mythos token volume across Anthropic API stays below 10% of total Opus token spendcascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Anthropic launches a 'Mythos-distilled' Sonnet variant at lower costcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Recursive self-improving AI demonstrated in production at frontier labpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Global AI agent population (deployed instances) exceeds 100B agent-hours/yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First megawatt-class space-based compute platform reaches LEOpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: First commercial Dyson swarm prototype contract signed (>=10 satellites)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Trillion-agent AI workload measured on a single platformpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic releases Claude Mythos Preview (anchor model)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic ships smaller / faster Mythos-class variant (Sonnet/Haiku tier)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — General availability of Mythos beyond Project Glasswing partnerscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mythos pricing per token at or below current Opus 4.7 levelscascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Open-source community reverse-engineers / replicates Mythos efficiencycascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · partial · 2026-04-25 — Mixed evaluation: Tom's Guide / blind testing shows Claude Opus 4.7 still wins broader categoriespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic ships Claude Opus 4.8 / 5.0 reclaiming benchmark leadcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic confirms Mythos withheld for internal/government usepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google DeepMind disclose internal compute share for self-improvementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model release lags published capability by >=3 monthscascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute moat acknowledged by US/EU regulatorcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Blue Moon Mk1 robotic lunar lander successful landing on Moon's south polepre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Blue Origin wins or solidifies NASA HLS / Artemis lunar contract continuationpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Industry analyst (Payload, ArsTechnica, SpaceNews) declares Blue Origin first-tier moon-mission competitorpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Blue Origin launches >=8 New Glenn missions in calendar yearcascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — Cascade: Blue Origin Mk2 crewed Blue Moon vehicle ready for Artemis-class missionpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-30 — International AI Safety Report 2026 documents catastrophic risk pathwayspre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Federal AI safety bill passes Congress post-major incidentpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: AI pause beginning 2028pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 for IPO including xAIpre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-16 — Combined entity loss of $5B reported, raising IPO execution riskpre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX-xAI combined IPO targets $1.75T-$2T valuation in summer 2026 listingpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-30 — Liability phase verdict (advisory jury) returnedpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Settlement announcement OR Judge Rogers final ruling on liability phasecascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Sam Altman departs as OpenAI CEO (resignation, removal, or transition)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI confirmed to remain for-profit (post-litigation structure)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Cascade: OpenAI files S-1 for IPO post-litigation resolutioncascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-27 — Musk v. Altman / OpenAI trial begins in federal courtpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Trial verdict, settlement, or dismissal announcedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Settlement terms or judgment include Musk-related equity provision in OpenAI Group PBCcascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC for trillion-dollar IPOcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Cascade: OpenAI completes IPO with Musk listed as cap-table partycascade #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: AI sector M&A or governance precedent established re: nonprofit-to-PBC conversionscascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issues ruling in Musk v OpenAIcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Court ruling explicitly addresses whether nonprofit donors retain enforceable rights after for-profit conversioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Appeal filed to Ninth Circuit by losing partycascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — First independent legal article or law review note cites the ruling as precedentcascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Cascade: State AGs (Delaware, California) update guidance on nonprofit-to-PBC conversions citing casecascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: Another large AI nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion proceeds (or is blocked) citing casepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Trump-era endowment-tax pressure on Harvard escalates to credible existential threatpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Endowment performance benchmark: Harvard endowment underperforms S&P 500 by >5% for two consecutive yearspre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Activist investor or alumni group publicly demands corporate restructuring of major US universitypre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major US private university opens formal feasibility study on for-profit / PBC restructuringpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Investment bank or law firm publishes formal valuation analysis of Harvard or peer university as a PBCcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: University-as-PBC framework gains state-level legal recognitioncascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR reaches $30B (already passed by April 2026)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Anthropic ARR reaches $50B run-rate by end of Q3 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Claude API/enterprise pricing or usage volume holds growth slope through H2 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-01 — Anthropic discloses $100B ARR by end of December 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO files S-1 or completes listing in Q4 2026 / Q1 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic 2027 revenue forecast revised upward toward $200B+cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Claude Code annualized revenue exceeds $2.5Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR crosses $30B and surpasses OpenAIpre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic ARR reaches $100B (interim milestone toward $1T)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T by EOY 2027 (target)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO or tender offer at $1T+ valuationpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic crosses $30B ARR by April 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Analyst end-of-2026 ARR projections converge to $80-100B rangecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — $200B ARR target — explicit verification or repudiationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Anthropic stretch target: cross $100B ARR by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · partial · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic preemptive offers at $850-900B valuation reported (April 2026 — partial of $2T thesis)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic Series H or follow-on round closes at ≥ $900B post-moneypre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic implied valuation reaches ≥ $1.5T (within striking distance of $2T thesis)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Anthropic implied valuation reaches ≥ $2T (thesis hit)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuationpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B roundcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — OpenAI raises $122B funding round to scale capacitypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — OpenAI launches $8/month entry plan to expand subscriber basecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT WAU breaches 1B thresholdcascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: OpenAI announces 2B+ users across ChatGPT familycascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI startup pitch decks publicly require recursive self-improvement narrativepre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Frontier lab discloses live recursive self-improvement loop in production trainingcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Funding round for AI startup explicitly cites RSI architecture in announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Down-round or shutdown of non-RSI AI startup signals bar-raisecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI capex shifts towards training-time-compute over inferencecascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited layoffs reach 100,000 cumulative through 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — BLS productivity data shows white-collar sector productivity surgecascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — WEF Future of Jobs report quantifies structural displacementcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — We are currently in AI hard takeoffpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First US AI-displacement legislative bill formally introduced in Congresspre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First state-level AI displacement payment program enactedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — BLS or independent labor research confirms >100K AI-displacement layoffs in single quarterpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-16 — US unemployment rate exceeds 6% with non-cyclical characterizationpre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Federal stimulus check or transfer program enacted >=$1,000 per adultcascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — AI-tax or compute-tax framework adopted federally to fund transferscascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — First major anti-AI protest in London draws hundreds at OpenAI/DeepMind/Meta HQpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026: Only 38% of Americans positive on AI (record low)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-21 — 142+ activist groups in 24 states organize against AI infrastructurepre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — AI data center backlash turns violent — first documented act of sabotagepre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Major G7 country enacts AI reform package (UBI, AI dividend, or compute tax)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Leading AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google) publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute mechanismpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major economic body (IMF/OECD/WEF) publishes formal 'post-scarcity' or 'capitalism 2.0' frameworkpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — US/EU congressional hearing dedicated to post-AI economic structurepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First national pilot of UBI/UBC explicitly tied to AI productivity dividendspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If by end-2027 no national-level pilot has launched, 'will emerge' becomes unrealistic by window closecascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Mainstream presidential-tier candidate adopts post-scarcity platform plankcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First major 2028 candidate launches campaign with explicit cash-transfer plank ($1k+/mo)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — At least 3 declared 2028 presidential candidates publicly endorse cash-transfer programspre #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First primary debate features bidding-war on UBI amounts ($10k vs $12k vs $15k)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Net new state-level guaranteed-income pilots cross 50 (vs ~30 baseline 2025)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-11 — 2028 winning ticket implements one-time stimulus check >= $5,000 in first 100 dayscascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 / Claude / Gemini 3 enable single-founder agentic businesses at scalepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI-native solo entrepreneurs cross $1M ARR threshold (more than 100 documented cases)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anti-AI sentiment / political backlash escalates beyond Sam Altman attackcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Major UBI pilot or social-contract policy proposal advances in target windowcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-14 — BLS data shows non-employer business formation surge attributed to AIcascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — WEF Future of Jobs 2027 release projects net jobs CREATED by 2030 exceeds displacedpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS 2024-2034 employment projections show total US employment >170M by 2030pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI-augmented occupation categories show >5% growth as new job titles emergepre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Transitional unemployment spike in highest-exposure occupations precedes net positive outcomepre #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Goldman Sachs 7% global GDP boost from AI translates to ~$7T cumulative output gain by 2030cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Solo entrepreneur with >=$10M ARR built primarily on AI tools (single-person AI conglomerate)pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Stripe Atlas / LLC formation data shows surge in single-member firmspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Anthropic Economic Index or McKinsey survey: net job creation among AI-adopting firmspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — BLS net employment change positive over 24-month window 2026-2028pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Forbes/Fortune profile feature on solo AI-billionaires or near-billionairespre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — US new business formation (Census BFS) sustains >5M filings/year (4-5x baseline)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Ratio of AI-native unicorns to traditional unicorns flips ≥4:1 in single yearcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Frontier lab claims 'general knowledge worker' capabilitycascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cross-function enterprise benchmark suite shows AI ≥80% on 5+ categoriescascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major consultancy quantifies '50%+ knowledge worker tasks automatable'cascade #4 · pending · 2027-10-01 — BLS labor productivity statistics show AI-attributable inflectioncascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major-party 2028 candidate openly advocates UBI as AI displacement responsepre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Polling shows majority of voters opposed to white-collar bailouts vs blue-collar reliefcascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Cascade: Means-tested AI displacement aid bill excludes high-income white-collar from reliefcascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Single primary outcome explicitly attributed to AI/crypto super PAC spendingpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — AI/crypto super PAC outside spending exceeds $500M cycle totalcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Empirical study published showing super PAC spending shifted >=10 House outcomescascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Anthropic surpasses OpenAI on annualized revenue (continued lead)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic ARR crosses $50Bpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Enterprise agents revenue mix >50% of Anthropic revenuepre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Revenue trajectory implies $1T within 5 years (analyst extrapolation)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — First frontier lab to publicly project $1T revenue pathcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Single hyperscaler discloses >$200B annual AI capexpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Single AI-customer commitment to one vendor exceeds $300Bpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Annualized run-rate spend by one buyer to one vendor crosses $500Bcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-19 — First public $1T-class AI vendor spend headlinepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-14 — OpenAI x Novo Nordisk drug-discovery partnership announced (broader pharma platform)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First repurposed off-patent compound from OpenAI program shows positive Alzheimer's biomarker signalpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First OpenAI-Foundation backed Alzheimer's drug candidate enters Phase 1 clinical trialpre #1 · pending · 2029-01-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Spinout/IPO of any AI-pharma company launched from OpenAI Alzheimer's program crosses $10B valuationcascade #2 · pending · 2030-12-31 — First FDA approval of OpenAI-Foundation lineage Alzheimer's drugpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-6 (or successor) public availability or research previewpre #2 · pending · 2027-04-01 — First peer-reviewed scientific discovery primarily authored or driven by GPT-6-class modelpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Pharma or materials company attributes >$1B value to AI-discovered candidatecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Public valuation marker for AI-science breakthroughcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Arc Institute Virtual Cell Challenge 2026 results show >2x improvement over State baselinepre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — CZI rBio / TranscriptFormer next-gen model published with whole-cell perturbation predictionpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Nvidia or major cloud announces dedicated virtual-cell training compute partnershippre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First peer-reviewed virtual-cell prediction validated wet-lab in independent academic studypre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First FDA-acceptable in-silico virtual-cell experiment cited in IND submissioncascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-16 — Cascade: First drug program with discovery anchor in virtual-cell simulation enters Phase 1cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First E. coli whole-cell model with predictive accuracy on growth/metabolism publishedpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Compute time for 1 hour of cell biology drops from 6 days to <1 daypre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First yeast (S. cerevisiae) whole-cell digital twin publishedcascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-31 — First mammalian (HeLa or hepatocyte) whole-cell simulation reaches publicationcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2028-06-04 — Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-24 — AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First AI-designed drug approved for any neurological indicationpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-10 — For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Android 17 ships post-quantum cryptography by defaultpre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cloudflare reaches full post-quantum security across edge by 2029pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Google announces logical-qubit milestone capable of factoring small RSApre #3 · pending · 2029-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-04-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First reported real-world post-quantum cryptographic compromise (harvest-now-decrypt-later)cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #3 · hit · 2026-02-11 — BIP-360 (Pay-to-Merkle-Root) merged into Bitcoin BIP repositorypre #2 · hit · 2026-03-20 — BTQ Technologies deploys functional post-quantum Bitcoin testnetpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Bitcoin Core release with PQ migration tooling for mainnetcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Bitcoin user-activated soft fork or signaling for PQ migrationcascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Cryptographically-relevant quantum computer demonstrated against ECDSA-256pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Major AI lab or framework ships native agent wallet/payment SDKpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First on-chain agent-to-agent payment using a non-Bitcoin native tokenpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — x402 / agent-payment protocol surpasses 1M monthly transactionspre #2 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Agent-issued token achieves $100M market cappre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Bitcoin share of agentic-payment volume drops below 25%cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2025-06-30 — Insilico Medicine Phase IIa positive results (TNIK inhibitor for IPF)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-01 — Industry analyst report confirms 80-90% AI-drug Phase 1 success ratepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First AI-designed drug enters Phase III pivotal trialcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Isomorphic Labs first IsoDDE molecule enters clinical trialscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #1 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)cascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla breaks ground on 10M-unit/year Optimus factory at Giga Texaspre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure deploys autonomous in-home humanoid in unseen environmentspre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100K units across all manufacturerspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First measurable services-sector productivity uplift from humanoid deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldcascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex aggregates exceed $700B annualizedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Microsoft single-quarter capex breaks $30B with AI revenue past $37B run-ratepre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Meta raises full-year 2026 capex guidance to $125B+cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Aggregate global AI investment crosses $1.1T annualized run-rate (~$3B/day)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Capex acceleration triggers credit-market stress event in IG-rated tech issuancecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Plenty Unlimited or Bowery emerges from bankruptcy with operating modelpre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Continued sector consolidation: 5+ major operator bankruptcies before 2028pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Energy unit cost for indoor vertical farming drops below outdoor produce cost-equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Single vertical-farming operator achieves $1B annual revenuepre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Sustained CAGR >=20% over 3 consecutive years post-2026cascade #1 · pending · 2030-10-31 — Aggregate global vertical-farming revenue confirmed at $40B in 2030cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Industrial-grade perovskite/silicon tandem deployed at >100MW commercial scalepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Triple-junction perovskite cell exceeds 36% lab efficiencypre #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Solar PV LCOE remains decoupled from cell-efficiency ceilingcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Arc Institute or CZI Virtual Cell program releases >=10x scaled multimodal cell foundation modelpre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First full-cell multimodal foundation model demonstrates causal-transport prediction across cell types in Nature/Sciencepre #4 · pending · 2028-01-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — AI-designed perturbation prediction reaches AlphaFold-tier benchmark accuracy via classical computepre #2 · pending · 2028-11-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Major pharma signs >=$500M deal predicated on classical-scaled virtual-cell platform without quantum-computing dependencpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Luminous Lumi 4 robots complete Australia 250 MW solar farm install with most panels robot-installedpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Drone delivery of construction material to active solar build site documented at scalepre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First end-to-end drone-deliver + robot-install solar deployment with zero human field laborcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First federal-agency-headcount cut publicly attributed to AI automationpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First federal agency reports >= 50% of front-line case work touched by AI agentspre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First state-level UBI/cash-transfer pilot funded with federal AI-productivity offsetscascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Federal cash-transfer or refundable-credit law signed (UBI-style ground floor)cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic) defaults agent payments to non-Bitcoin rails (USDC / Visa / x402)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Bitcoin Lightning agent-payment integration launches as competitive responsepre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BTC share of AI-agent settlement volume vs USDC measurable (relevant for irrelevance thesis)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Bitcoin store-of-value vs medium-of-exchange role formally bifurcates in academic/industry analysiscascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Robotaxi network achieves >5% of vehicle-miles in any top-10 US metropre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major US homebuilder announces robot-built construction linepre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — US median single-family home price drops year-over-year for first time in non-recessionpre #2 · pending · 2028-12-14 — First US zoning reform explicitly tied to AI/automation cost savings passes statewidepre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — US housing starts exceed 2 million annual run ratecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chaipre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — At least 3 new AI-team acqui-hires above $500M total deal valuepre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — FTC or DOJ closes acqui-hire merger-review loopholepre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Specialized small-team AI acqui-hire crosses $5B+ headline valuepre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top-50 AI researchers individually compensated >$100M/year market ratecascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 5.0% through 2028pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — New job categories created: BLS adds >=2 new SOC codes for AI-era rolespre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, or Anthropic publish revised displacement timeline through 2028pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Job category extinction: BLS occupational data shows >=3 occupations decline >=20%pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Labor force participation rate stays within +/-1pp of 2025 baselinepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-model parameter count remains in 1T-10T band (no 100T model released)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Industry shift to MoE / smaller dense models confirmedpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 100T+ parameter dense frontier model released (would falsify)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-18 — Lack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young people who can't get jobs.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-20 — Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalicascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Entry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but entrepreneurial opportunity is unlimited.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-19 — New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers.cascade #6 · pending · 2029-12-29 — AI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to excel at unskilled manual labor.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — ILO or IMF cross-region report shows African unemployment delta from AI <1pp (vs OECD 2-5pp) over 2026-2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Reverse-migration narrative emerges: African diaspora professionals returning home as Western AI-displacement worsenspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — African economies grow GDP per capita above OECD median in 2027 (relative outperformance during AI transition)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic Q2/Q3 2026 ARR run-rate update — sustains 10x YoY trajectorypre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Anthropic IPO or $850-900B valuation round closespre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Frontier benchmark crossover — Claude tops or matches OpenAI flagship on majority of capability/coding/reasoning evals fpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Enterprise share-of-wallet reversal — Anthropic enterprise spend exceeds OpenAI enterprise spend in independent CIO survcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-14 — Apple announces Amazon Globalstar / Project Kuiper as iPhone satellite vendorpre #5 · pending · 2026-11-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Apple satellite revenue line item appears separately in 10-Qpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — iPhone formally adds SpaceX Starlink as second-vendor optionpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Direct-to-device satellite cellular displaces terrestrial backup for emergency / SOScascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Starlink Direct-to-Cell adds video/data tier beyond SMS+voicepre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AST SpaceMobile reaches initial nationwide US D2D coveragepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Amazon-Globalstar D2C service announced with launch ETApre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First flagship phone marketed as 'satellite-native' (not emergency-only)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — D2D subscriber count crosses 50M globallycascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-31 — China will land on the moon before end of 2030cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #6 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First operational V3 Starlink batch on Starshippre #4 · pending · 2027-05-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Starship reaches sustained 3-launches-per-week cadencepre #1 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Cumulative V3 Starlink deployment crosses 5,000 satellitescascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — 40,000 V3 Starlink constellation reaches operational statuscascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #5 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-08-07 — First quarterly P&L disclosure for Andon Marketpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Independent retail-industry ranking / press validation of Andon Marketpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Andon Market still operating at 1-year anniversarycascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: AI-managed retail concept replicated by other founders / chainscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Retail-AI venture funding round >$50Mpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — AI-orchestrated mall or multi-tenant venue announcedpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Coverage cluster: 5+ articles on AI pop-up retail explosioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Category data validates explosion (active venues count)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Summer 2026 benchmark composite shows >=10x advance over Jan 2026 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Falsification: Summer 2026 benchmarks show <3x improvement (would be NEAR-MISS)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — 100x year claim publicly validated by >=1 independent analystcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Independent journalism documents AI chatbot bioweapon synthesis instructionspre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First documented real-world incident of AI-assisted CBRN attempt (attempted, not necessarily successful)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Regulatory response: at least one government imposes mandatory CBRN red-teaming for frontier modelscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI Incident Database adds ≥100 new incidents in three-month windowpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026 documents 8x growth in malicious-actor AI use vs 2022cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Deepfake-driven incidents continue to outnumber autonomous vehicle / facial recognition incidentscascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major regulatory reporting requirement (EU AI Act incident reporting / US executive order) goes livecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reportspre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact datapre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Chinese frontier lab open-weights release at top-3 LMArena Elopre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Chinese model wins or ties on novel benchmark vs US/UK frontiercascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI or Anthropic releases meaningful open-weight model (>30B)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — BIS / US export-control update tightens China AI model exportcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major US frontier lab publishes architecture / training-recipe transparency reportcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top-CS-program new-grad starting-salary stagnates or falls vs 2024pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Coding-task automation reaches ≥50% of routine taskspre #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Median elite-CS-grad first-job displaced by AI agent assignmentcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-05-01 — OpenAI restricts GPT-5.5-Cyber to vetted critical-defender partners onlypre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic gates Claude Mythos behind security-vetted access tierpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — 3 or more frontier labs gate top-tier models behind enterprise / vetted-only accesspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Public benchmark / paper claims ASI-equivalent capability on a defined task suitecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI coding assistant adoption exceeds 80% of professional developers (Stack Overflow / GitHub)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Autonomous coding agents (Devin / Windsurf Cascade) achieve ≥50% SWE-bench verifiedpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Junior developer hiring (BLS / Indeed / LinkedIn) drops ≥30% YoY for entry-level coding rolescascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Junior software developer (0-3 yr exp) job postings on Indeed/LinkedIn rise YoY for 3 consecutive monthscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS JOLTS Information sector job openings rebound above 2024 baselinecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow Developer Survey shows entry-level developer share stabilizing or risingcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Salesforce hires 1,000 new-grad software/AI engineers as Benioff committedcascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve or BLS publishes follow-on study reaffirming AI-not-driving-junior-dev declinecascade #6 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: CS undergrad enrollment growth resumes (>=2% YoY) after 2024-25 dippre #4 · hit · 2026-01-30 — SpaceX FCC filing for up to 1M orbital data-center satellitespre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US state passes new data-center moratorium / restrictive permittingcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FCC grants partial authorization for orbital data-center constellationcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data-center customer contract announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative LEO/SSO compute capacity exceeds 1 MW across constellationscascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Hyperscaler AI traffic capex includes net-new bandwidth/spectrum line itempre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Starlink/Kuiper announce robot/AV-class connectivity tiercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start signals demand validation for connected humanoidscascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cellular IoT module shipments for robotics/AV cross 100M annualizedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Spectrum policy: FCC or peer regulator allocates net-new AI-machine-class spectrumcascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Global space launch market reaches $21B revenue in 2025pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — SpaceX 2026 revenue projection $22-24B with 82% commercial market sharecascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Annual orbital launch attempts cross 350 globallycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First trillion-dollar space economy milestone projection (2032)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Starship operational: cost per kg to LEO drops below $500cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-06 — Subsequent DeepSeek-style efficiency announcements fail to repeat the January 2025 selloffpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frequency of algorithmic-efficiency announcements rises (≥5 named events/year)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Single-day market reaction to a 2026 algorithmic-efficiency announcement is <50% of January 2025 magnitudecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2025-04-15 — Microsoft releases bitnet-b1.58-2B-4T on Hugging Facepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First commercial LLM API deploys ternary weights at scalecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — Frontier model trained natively in ternary precision (>50B params)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-08-25 — Mainstream press coverage of 'AI religion' as growing categorypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellationscascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-22 — Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredcascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Census or sociological study tracks AI-faith adherentscascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI cult or movement linked to high-profile harm eventcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Pew or Gallup publishes 2026 global religion-affiliation updatecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mainstream press identifies AI-generated 'micro-cult/sect' phenomenoncascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Quantitative measurement of 'AI-religion' / parasocial belief communitiescascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Top-3 world religions' combined share trend visible in WCD/ARDA datasetcascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Vatican issues formal AI policy frameworkpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Mainline Protestant denominations (UMC, ELCA) adopt formal AI policiespre #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — No civilization-level disruption (negative-test cascade)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major Islamic / Jewish religious authorities issue AI fatwa / responsapre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-mediated religious services (sermons, study, counseling) become normalizedcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Bible-app and faith-app downloads sustain 20%+ YoY growth through 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Pew, Gallup, or Barna survey reports rising religious participation tied to AI anxietycascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Religious tech / faith-app sector raises >$500M in 2026 venture fundingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Major US denomination reports first attendance increase in 10+ years in 2026cascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Global religion-economy aggregate market sizing reports growth above 5% in 2026cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: AI-religion or techno-spirituality movements gain >100K self-identified memberspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First true n=1 personalized drug therapy approvedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — n>=10 documented n=1 AI-designed therapies in patientscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI-designed drug discovery time falls to <12 months consistentlycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — FDA Commissioner Makary departure, replacement, or announced leavepre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — RFK Jr override of FDA decision becomes public or formalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Major FDA reorganization or RIF (reduction in force) announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Congressional hearing or bipartisan letter calls for FDA reformcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Pharma industry lobbying for FDA leadership change escalates publiclycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — FDA launches real-time AI-driven clinical trial pilotpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — FDA consolidates 40 systems into single platform; saves $120M/yrcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — FDA finalizes AI-in-drug-development guidance (Q2 2026)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Other federal agency follows FDA accelerated regulatory patterncascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Inaugural Enhanced Games scheduled for May 21-24, 2026 Las Vegaspre #5 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Gkolomeev posts unofficial 50m freestyle world record (20.89s) in Enhanced trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced Games inaugural competition delivered without major safety incidentcascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced 2026 produces >=2 records faster than current official world recordscascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Enhanced Games announces second edition with year-over-year mark improvementscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of Neuralink human implants reaches 50+cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink launches high-volume production with automated surgery in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink Blindsight first patient trial begins (non-destructive read/write to cortex)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First whole-brain emulation / connectome scan published from preserved tissuecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Frontier AI capability index doubles vs Q1 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models.pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-19 — Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today.pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — BCI throughput remains <1% of frontier-AI inference rate by 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI-private-company secondary valuations widen vs. revenue multiplespre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI public-name short interest rises above 5% float on 3+ AI playspre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI unicorn down-round or failed raise reportedpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — AI sector ETF or basket underperforms SPY by >5% in single monthcascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First sustained AI valuation reset (>15% drawdown) on AI-software basketcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Modine (MOD) data-center revenue grows 119% YoYpre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Eaton organic data-center sales 9%+ YoYpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top 5 'picks-and-shovels' basket gains 3x+ from 2024 baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — First documented AI-enabled solo-founder $1B+ revenue trajectory companypre #1 · hit · 2026-03-01 — Solo-founded startups exceed 35% of new ventures in 2026 cohortcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First solo-founder unicorn ($1B post-money valuation, single-founder, ≤5 employees)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First documented AI-enabled 'one-person religion' or solo-founded religious movement at scalecascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-mediated community / DAO-style spiritual or ideological group exceeds 100K memberscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Maine data center moratorium passes legislature, vetoed by governorpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-14 — 11+ states introduce data center moratorium bills in 2026pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Local moratoriums spread across municipalitiescascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First operational Dyson swarm prototype or megastructure democascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Major US/EU news incident: humanoid robot injures human at consumer-facing eventcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — ASTM/ISO publishes first humanoid-specific safety standardcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First US state introduces legislation regulating humanoid robots in public spacescascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Polling shows majority of Americans 'concerned' about humanoid robots in publiccascade #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybersecurity firm publishes proof-of-concept exploit for production humanoid robot fleetpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in deccascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — US state passes data center moratorium beyond bill stage (signed into law)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Sanders/AOC AI Data Center Moratorium Act gets committee markup or votecascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Hyperscaler announces canceled or relocated AI data center build citing community/utility oppositioncascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US residential power costs rise >=15% YoY in any state with major data-center clustercascade #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major hyperscaler announces dedicated orbital compute initiative explicitly citing earth-side constraintscascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-15 — $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Maine House sustains Mills' veto — moratorium dies; thesis premise (statewide moratorium gives time) invalidatedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Maine Data Center Advisory Council established by EO (replaces moratorium pathway)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — SpaceX Starcloud-2 launch with multi-GPU (Blackwell) orbital compute payloadpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-15 — Other state passes data-center moratorium or significant siting restriction (substitution test)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — SoftWear Automation releases third-gen T-shirt Sewbot for commercial salecascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — BESTSELLER or comparable apparel major announces production volume from Sewbot linescascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First humanoid-robot fashion-stitching demo from Figure/1X/Apptronikcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Sewbot or Sewbo deploys at scale outside textile pilot plants — 100+ units in commercial usepre #6 · hit · 2025-08-15 — SoftWear Automation closes $20M Series B1 led by BESTSELLERpre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Third-generation T-shirt Sewbot reaches commercial availability H1 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Levi's pilots Sewbo robotic denim sewing on production linecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Full sewing automation deployed at production scale (>=100K units/year)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major apparel brand announces Asia-to-US/Europe reshoring tied to sewbotscascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla Optimus 3 begins production at Fremont (summer 2026)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First peer-reviewed paper on multi-modal embodied 'general' robot intelligencecascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Genetic-engineering policy debate around human germline editing intensifiespre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — SpaceX Starship Mars uncrewed mission attempts 2026 launch windowcascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First peer-reviewed terraforming feasibility paper for Mars greenhouse gas warmingcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — SpaceX or government body announces formal terraforming research programcascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First permanent human Mars settlement attempt (precondition for terraforming)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-23 — SK Hynix Q1 2026 earnings: record operating margin (~72%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Samsung Q1 2026 memory-driven 8x profit jumpcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — SK Hynix / Samsung stock prices set new highs through 2026 Q3cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Samsung HBM4 qualifies into top hyperscaler buyerscascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — Hyperscaler HBM forward-supply commitments extend through 2028cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sub-1-bit (post-binary) LLM quantization achieves >70% accuracy parity vs FP16 on >=7B modelcascade #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major lab (Microsoft, Meta, Google, NVIDIA) ships post-binary precision in production modelcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Hardware accelerator with native sub-binary support announcedcascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Information per parameter' theoretical paper redefines compute-optimal scaling lawscascade #6 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Sub-binary quantized model deployed at >1B-user scalepre #6 · hit · 2024-12-14 — OpenAI Superalignment 'weak-to-strong generalization' research paper baselinepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic / DeepMind / OpenAI publish post-2025 results on weak-to-strong supervising frontier modelscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Adversarial demonstration: weak-to-strong fails when the strong model is intentionally deceptivecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First superintelligence-class system contained / aligned by weaker supervisor in deploymentcascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Anthropic guidance: 'use prompts for everything' published in migration docpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Opus 4.7 replaces fixed thinking budget with adaptive thinkingpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI / Google follow with reduced sampling-parameter surfacecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: prompt-engineering market doubles ($) in 12 months post-4.7cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-05 — Major model release exceeds human OSWorld baseline by clear marginpre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Holo3-35B-A3B leads OSWorld with 82.6%pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Anthropic CEO publicly maintains 2026 AI > most humans timelinepre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — OpenAI articulates 'hundreds of thousands of automated research interns' plancascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Frontier benchmark composite (MMLU/SWE/MATH/OSWorld) exceeds expert humans on 4 of 4cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Cascade: AGI-popular-narrative drives capex acceleration past $700B/yrpre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — ICLR / NeurIPS RSI workshop cohort produces published 'AI researcher' agent that authors a top-tier ML paperpre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First public recursive-self-improvement demonstration on safety-critical benchmarkpre #4 · pending · 2028-06-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Frontier-lab model card discloses substantive role of automated AI research in capability gainpre #2 · pending · 2029-02-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathcascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Cascade: superintelligence-tier capability claim by frontier labpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS Software Developer occupation employment falls ≥10% YoYpre #4 · pending · 2027-04-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Programmer role shifts to 'conductor' — agent orchestration tools dominatepre #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — 'Vast majority' threshold met — ≥50% programmer displacementpre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — NVIDIA officially launches Vera CPU rack purpose-built for agentic AIpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-31 — NVIDIA unveils Agent OS / NeMoClaw operating system for agentspre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Vera Rubin platform reaches general availability with cloud partner deploymentpre #1 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — NVIDIA agentic-AI revenue line crosses $10B annualizedpre #6 · pending · 2027-07-02 — $1.5T AI-financing gap drives credit-market issuance surgepre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI early-adopter cash-flow margins ≥2x global averagepre #4 · pending · 2028-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-04-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Annual data-center capex crosses $900B by 2028pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — JPMorgan / Citi / UBS publish bullish copper Q2 2026 calls ≥$12,000/tpre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Copper futures cross $5/lb (LME ~$11,000/t)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-08 — BHP/Freeport/Antofagasta Q1 2026 production beats consensus (constrained supply)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Copper futures cross $13,000/t (peak supercycle scenario)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major mining stock outperforms S&P 500 by ≥30% YTDpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-16 — Six space-AI partners named at launch (Aetherflux, Axiom, Kepler, Planet, Sophia, Starcloud)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-01 — First Vera Rubin Space Module ships to a paying orbital customerpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First Rubin-class AI inference workload runs on-orbit (not just imaging payload)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — First lunar-surface AI compute deployment announcement (NVIDIA-class hardware)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — BLS Q1 2026 white-collar employment data releasecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Cumulative AI-driven layoffs cross 100K in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First named F500 cuts ≥30% of legal/marketing/finance workforcecascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — UBI policy proposal advances in major economycascade #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI-infrastructure-specific taxation proposed in U.S./EUpre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — MoonPay MoonAgents Card + OKX Agent Payments Protocol go live (Q1-Q2 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First $1B agent-mediated cumulative on-chain transaction volume from a single AI platformpre #3 · pending · 2029-01-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-02-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Bitcoin Lightning Network or major L2 reports >50% of payment volume from non-human (agent) accountspre #6 · pending · 2027-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Frontier lab publicly deprecates pure RLHF as superalignment primary technique in favor of scalable-oversight architectupre #4 · pending · 2028-05-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Government or international body cites RLHF inadequacy in formal AI-safety policypre #2 · pending · 2028-12-14 — First public incident report of RLHF-supervised superhuman model causing measurable real-world harm via reward-hackingpre #1 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU Commission enforcement powers activate against GPAI providerspre #4 · pending · 2027-01-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-31 — First formal EU AI Act enforcement action announced against major labpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-02 — Pre-Aug-2025 GPAI models compliance deadlinepre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corppre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1Mcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suitepre #6 · pending · 2027-05-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI model produces peer-reviewed scientific discovery in non-CS fieldpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #3 · pending · 2028-02-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-01 — AI agent integrates with biological/environmental sensor stack in published studypre #1 · pending · 2028-08-30 — Composite cross-domain leaderboard launched (math+code+science+reasoning)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Snap stock jumps on premarket announcement of 16% workforce cut citing AI efficienciespre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 tech-sector layoffs reach ~78,557 with ~47.9% explicitly AI-attributedpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Personal-bankruptcy filings show ≥20% YoY surge in tech-heavy metros (SF, Seattle, Austin, NYC)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Commercial office vacancy in tech metros breaches 30% (CBRE / Cushman & Wakefield)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — DoD FY2026 H1 commits >$32B contract ceiling to AI / autonomy / cyberpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First public combat / OPS use of AI-coordinated autonomous drone swarm by US/allied forcepre #2 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-31 — NATO doctrine update formalizes 'machine-speed decision-making' tactical rolepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate prints 2.0% — well below 5-6.2% claimpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs raises 2026 GDP forecast above consensuspre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate releasepre #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Enterprise SaaS revenue collapse evidence emerges in Q2 2026 reportspre #1 · pending · 2026-08-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate releasepre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Single training run cost exceeds $10Bpre #3 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-01 — AI completes end-to-end software development tasks lasting hours/dayspre #1 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major employer announces ≥30% white-collar headcount reduction citing AIpre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Cloud Security Alliance: 65% of enterprises report AI-agent-related incidents in past 12 monthspre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First publicly attributed AI-agent-driven ≥$100M direct financial loss eventpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First major US/EU legislation introduced specifically targeting autonomous-agent operational thresholdspre #1 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2025-09-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-08 — Trump December 8 2025 H200 announcement and 15% chip-export taxpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cloud-compute KYC requirements expand beyond AI trainingpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First proposed national consumer-GPU licensing schemecascade #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — First country implements GPU import permit system for civilianspre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Edge-deployable open model achieves frontier-tier reasoning on consumer GPUpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major enterprise deploys self-hosted open model in productionpre #2 · pending · 2028-02-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-01 — Open-source agent toolkit replaces closed API for ≥20% of developer agent callspre #6 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Replicator-2 first combatant-command operational fielding (>1,000 units in theater)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Cascade: NATO ally announces national-scale 'cheap mass' drone procurement programpre #3 · pending · 2028-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cancellation or substantial restructuring of a legacy exquisite platform programpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First AI-sector M&A deal exceeding $100B announcedpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Industry-wide L1 customer support headcount declines >=30%pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Single AI-sector M&A deal at or above $500Bpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · overdue · 2024-08-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-03-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-10-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · hit · 2025-08-15 — Higher Ground Education asset acquisition closescascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-04 — Alpha School expands to 35+ campus locations in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chicago AI-school campus opens with no human teachers in instructional rolecascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Alpha enrollment grows from 1,000 (2025) to >5,000 studentscascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Pomodoro-style focused-session model formally measured in studypre #4 · hit · 2024-11-20 — Snowflake completes Datavolo acquisition consolidating multimodal pipeline spacepre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major enterprise AI failure attributed to unstructured data quality issuescascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Databricks/Snowflake/Palantir add native multimodal data pipeline productscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Unstructured.io Series C raises ≥$200M at unicorn-tier valuationcascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First multimodal-data-pipeline startup crosses $5B valuationpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Pony.ai global robotaxi fleet ≥3,000 by end-2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — WeRide delivers ≥2,000 GXR units in 2026, doubling 2025 fleetpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Aggregate 33+ consumer AV launches counted across China + US + EU in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-28 — Stargate exceeds 10GW milestone with 3GW added in 90 dayspre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — GPT-5.5 trained at flagship Abilene Stargate sitepre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex hits $700B run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Cascade: AI compute treated as macro variable in Fed/Treasury commentarycascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — AI capex contributes 40% of US 2026 GDP growthcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI custom Titan chip mass production at TSMC 3nmpre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — First gigawatt-scale AI datacenter operational (xAI Colossus 2)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Single-cluster commitment crosses $200B thresholdpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — FERC or RTO publicly identifies AI compute as macro-grid stress sourcepre #3 · pending · 2027-04-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First U.S. nuclear PPA dedicated to single AI cluster ≥1 GWpre #1 · pending · 2028-05-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-15 — $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI delivers intern-level research assistant by Sept 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI system co-authors a peer-reviewed paper as primary authorpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI system independently produces novel scientific finding without human guidancecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Public model produces independent novel research result accepted at top-tier venuepre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major AI lab announces internal recursive self-improvement loop in productionpre #4 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — GDPval-equivalent saturation: leading model >=95% expert-tie-or-win across full benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2031-11-01 — If superintelligence emerges: international AI compute monitoring treaty signedpre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmarkpre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productioncascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraintspre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Free cash flow positive by 2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution)pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Federal HR 5830 'Guaranteed Income Pilot Program Act' floor vote in Housepre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Senator-level draft of 'compute-hours' AI labor tax legislationpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — AI-Dividend or token-tax framework appears in major presidential platformpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First state passes AI-specific labor displacement tax or UBI funding mechanismcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Federal UBI-adjacent legislation passes after >5% white-collar displacement eventpre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Test-time compute / reasoning OOM unlocked via o1, o3, R1pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Aschenbrenner 1GW per cluster prediction validated by 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model demonstrates 1 full OOM effective compute over GPT-4cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Algorithmic efficiency gains tracked at 0.5+ OOM/year through 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Full automated AI researcher milestone — autonomous research agentpre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-06-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex consensus crosses $600B (above 0.5 OOM/yr trajectory)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-25 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex revised upward to $720-750Bpre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First 1 GW single-cluster training facility operationalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Aggregate FLOPS deployed crosses prior-year level by ~3xcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-01 — 2027 hyperscaler capex guidance >=$900B (extends 0.5 OOM/yr through 2027)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Single AI training cluster crosses $100B announced budgetpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — DoD / NSC / DoE major AI compute partnership announcement (security-state involvement)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — Formal 'AGI Project' / consortium structure announced (Manhattan-tier)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First documented inter-agent message corpus that human evaluators cannot reliably interpretpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI lab publicly proposes 'kill switch / circuit breaker' protocol for emergent-comm-MASpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-02-14 — First reported governance / regulatory action restricting emergent-comm MAS in productionpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AI capex contributes >=20% of total US GDP growthpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Global data-center buildout commitments cross $2.9T cumulative through 2028pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Investment-grade credit spreads widen on AI-related issuance volumecascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major central bank or IMF publication treats AI as standalone macro factorpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — xAI Colossus phase-2 expansion confirmed for Grok 5+ trainingpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Frontier model crosses 10T parameterspre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Leading AI lab publicly forecasts AGI within 24 monthspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-01 — Independent body (METR/Apollo/MIRI) confirms AGI achieved by 2030pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2025-09-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — GTC 2026: Rosa CPU (successor to Vera) announced; Feynman 3D-stacked GPU details disclosedpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Vera Rubin NVL144 launch (2026): 3.6 EFLOPS FP4, 1.2 EFLOPS FP8 inference/trainingpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Rubin Ultra (2027): SXM8 with 4 reticle-limited GPU chiplets, 100 PFLOPS FP4, 1TB HBM4Ecascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Feynman GPU launch (2028): advanced 3D stacking, custom HBM, Rosa CPU pairingpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-25 — NVIDIA full-year FY2026 data center revenue ~$197Bpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex commitments ~$700B confirmedpre #3 · pending · 2026-09-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — NVIDIA crosses $5T market capitalization sustainablypre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Industry/analyst consensus aligns with $3-5T cumulative AI infra TAM through 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — NVIDIA cumulative 2025-2027 data center revenue exceeds $500B (run-rate trajectory toward $3-5T TAM)pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-22 — Three-supplier 16-Hi HBM4 sample delivery to NVIDIApre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — SK Hynix begins HBM4 mass production for NVIDIA Rubinpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Combined HBM industry quarterly revenue exceeds $20Bpre #1 · pending · 2027-02-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-25 — Arm publishes AGI CPU thesis confirming CPU renaissance for agentic AIpre #4 · hit · 2026-03-18 — Jensen Huang at GTC publicly frames CPU as central to agentic AIpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Morgan Stanley publishes Rise of AI Agents thesis: GPU bottleneck shifts to CPUpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — CPU:GPU ratio in agentic workloads exceeds 1:1 cluster-level by 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Server CPU TAM grows ≥15% annually 2026-2030 per Morgan Stanley estimatepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Inference cost declines 10x annually sustainedpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Compute throughput, not cognition, becomes named bottleneck in major economic forecastpre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Annual GPU shipment growth exceeds 50% YoYpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Inference cost reaches under $0.01/M tokens (5-year forecast met)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-10 — Micron HBM capacity sold out through 2026 confirmedpre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q1-Q2 2026 quarterly HBM shipment data confirms 32B Gb annual run-ratecascade #1 · hit · 2025-12-26 — AI consumes 20% of global DRAM wafer capacity in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — HBM market revenue surges to ~$51 billion in 2026 from ~$3B in 2023cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — HBM supply fulfillment rate falls to ~2% in 2026 — extreme constraintcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — HBM critical-resource positioning drives semiconductor M&A or vertical integrationpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Samsung memory operating profit hits record on HBM-driven salespre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Hyperscalers pre-book HBM supply multi-year aheadpre #3 · pending · 2026-09-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — HBM4 ramp by SK Hynix/Samsung at scalepre #1 · pending · 2027-01-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — HBM ASP holds elevated through 2027 as shortage persistspre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-15 — SK Hynix achieves 16-layer HBM4 mass productionpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — HBM4 yield-related supply shortage reported in 2H 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Micron 16-Hi HBM4 mass productionpre #6 · hit · 2025-10-29 — SK Hynix sells out 2026 DRAM/HBM/NAND supply to NVIDIApre #5 · overdue · 2026-03-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-31 — SK Hynix HBM4 shipments to NVIDIA Rubin start in March 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — UBS forecasts SK Hynix 70% HBM4 share for NVIDIA Rubinpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Year-end 2026 SK Hynix HBM share remains ≥50%cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Samsung Foundry challenges SK Hynix dominance with HBM4 winspre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-15 — Samsung passes Nvidia HBM4 qualification and signs Vera Rubin supply contractpre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Samsung HBM4 mass production begins shipmentspre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Samsung secures approximately 30% of Nvidia's 2026 HBM4 allocation (vs SK hynix ~70%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Vera Rubin platform begins volume ramp in second half 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Samsung global HBM market share crosses 28% threshold per TrendForce/Counterpointpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-01 — TSMC pivots toward CoWoS-L using Local Silicon Interconnect bridge architecturepre #5 · hit · 2026-01-20 — AMD allocated ~11% of CoWoS capacity for MI350/MI400 ramppre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-08 — TSMC US-Arizona advanced packaging capacity expansion announcedpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — TSMC monthly CoWoS capacity reaches 127,000-130,000 wafers by end-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — CoWoS capacity remains binding constraint causing AI accelerator shortages through 2027pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — OEMs raise smartphone/PC ASPs to absorb DRAM cost pass-throughpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — DDR5/DDR4 shortage extends through Q4 2027pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Consumer-grade DRAM maker exits or consolidates due to bifurcationpre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Morgan Stanley publishes formal Rise of AI Agents report — GPU-to-CPU pivot thesispre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-22 — CPU-side orchestration is empirically measured at 50-90% of agentic workload latencypre #2 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Hyperscaler greenfield CPU racks deployed exclusively for agentic AIcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Memory and CPU vendors outperform GPU pure-plays in 2026-27 returnscascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — DRAM demand from agentic workloads adds 15-45 EB by 2030cascade #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — $32.5-60B incremental CPU TAM materialized by 2030 per Morgan Stanleypre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major hyperscaler announces agentic-rack architecture with disclosed CPU:GPU ratio >=1:2pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Intel/AMD/ARM CPU vendor reports orchestration-CPU revenue tied to agentic workloads as named segmentpre #4 · pending · 2027-11-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry-wide cluster-level CPU:GPU ratio shift confirmed at 1:1-1:2 in TrendForce/IDC datapre #2 · pending · 2028-10-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Orchestration-CPU TAM tracking toward Morgan Stanley $82.5B-$110B 2030 projectionpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Morgan Stanley publishes 15-45 EB DRAM agentic forecastpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-23 — MS Memory Stocks bottleneck shift report publishedpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Micron / SK Hynix earnings cite agentic AI as DRAM demand driverpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — DRAM industry 2026 capex announcements support multi-year supply rampcascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Global DRAM 2027 demand growth tracker confirms 25%+ YoYpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — ChatGPT holds 64.5% AI assistant market share (April 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Apple Intelligence reaches 30%+ of iPhone install base (active monthly use)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic combined consumer share drops below 50%cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Top-3 traditional platforms (Apple/MSFT/Meta/Google) hold 60%+ AI assistant sharepre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2024-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus Grok-5 conversational training operational in factoriespre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — 1X NEO ships to early-access homes with conversational UI as defaultpre #4 · pending · 2027-01-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Voice-UI becomes standard reference architecture in humanoid product literaturepre #2 · pending · 2027-07-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Field-deployment data: voice commands account for >50% of task initiationspre #5 · hit · 2026-01-31 — NVIDIA Jetson T4000 ships with Blackwell architecture for roboticspre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major humanoid platform demonstrates on-device SLM inference without cloudcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Edge SLM benchmark hits parity with frontier model on robotics task classcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Power consumption of localized humanoid reasoning drops below 50W sustainedcascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Robotics silicon shipments cross 1M-unit annual threshold for SLM-class NPUspre #6 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Treasury or White House publicly explores tokenized-Treasury / sovereign coin conceptpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Congressional bill introduced for sovereign / agency-issued token tied to debt reductionpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: tokenized US debt instruments reach >=$50B market cappre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Quantinuum / IBM cross 10+ logical qubits within 2025pre #5 · overdue · 2025-09-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2025-10-07 — 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for macroscopic quantum tunnelingpre #3 · hit · 2025-12-15 — Vienna team demonstrates quantum interference at 170,000 amu masspre #2 · hit · 2025-12-15 — Macroscopicity record μ=15.5 publishedpre #1 · overdue · 2026-01-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — First cloud provider takes Vera Rubin orders / pre-orderspre #5 · pending · 2026-08-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Vera Rubin NVL72 commercially available at major hyperscalerspre #2 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Rubin demonstrates 5x inference performance vs Blackwell publiclycascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Microsoft Fairwater AI superfactory deploys Vera Rubin NVL72 rackspre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Vera Rubin Superchip generally availablepre #5 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — NVIDIA Manassas GW research center reaches first-lightpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First named hyperscaler announces 1 GW Rubin cluster contractpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First 1 GW Rubin cluster powered on / training run beginscascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Rubin Ultra ships in 2H 2027 (cascade event indicating GW-scale market maturation)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Digital Omnibus trilogue concludes WITHOUT GPAI deadline extensioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Frontier AI providers publish AI Act compliance documentationcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin 2 August 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First GPAI provider receives formal Commission investigation noticepre #6 · pending · 2026-07-16 — GPT-5.2 or successor leads METR Time Horizon testpre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier model achieves ≥4-hour 50% time horizonpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — METR researchers simulate 200-hour time horizon AIspre #3 · pending · 2027-01-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Frontier agent demonstrates ≥8h task with ≥50% reliability (resolution)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Real-world agent deployment (one-workday autonomous loops)pre #6 · hit · 2025-01-07 — FDA proposes 7-step credibility assessment framework for AI modelspre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2025-10-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Industry critical reviews of FDA draft published (peer-reviewed)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-02-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — FDA finalizes AI drug-submission guidance by Q2 2026 (per agency timeline)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Materially advanced revised draft published if not finalizedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First AI-supported drug NDA approved using credibility frameworkpre #5 · overdue · 2025-09-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-28 — ISM8969 FDA IND clearancepre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First patient dosed in Isomorphic Phase 1 oncology trialcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Peer AI-designed drugs (Insilico, Recursion, BenevolentAI) report Phase 1 progresscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Phase 1 dose escalation (first dose level) completioncascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Initial Phase 1 readout (top-line efficacy / safety)pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-04 — Colossal Biosciences confirms 2028 woolly mammoth birth target (Mar 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Asian elephant ovum retrieval / IVF protocol validated (peer-reviewed publication)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Colossal announces edited-elephant-cell line with full mammoth gene-edit suite ready for embryo creationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — First mammoth-edit embryo created in vitro (lab-stage milestone)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — First embryo transferred into elephant surrogate by end-2027 (prediction direct event)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-10-04 — Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028pre #6 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Successful pregnancy confirmed via ultrasound at >=4 months post-transferpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Backup ET into 2nd or 3rd surrogate completed (redundancy strategy)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Thylacine scientific-progress milestone announcement (per Colossal commitment 'before end of year')pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Bluebuck embryo creation + roan-surrogate transfer (resolution criterion satisfaction)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Either Bluebuck OR Thylacine reaches active embryo-transfer pipeline before window closecascade #1 · pending · 2029-05-02 — Live Bluebuck calf born — full de-extinction success (cascade beyond pack window)pre #4 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Figure publishes weekly production update confirming sustained 1-robot-per-hour cadencepre #1 · pending · 2026-08-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ first-pass yield holds >=80% on quarterly disclosurecascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Cumulative Figure 03 deployments crosses 1,000 unitscascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Independent third-party verifies 30-day sustained 1/hr production ratecascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — BotQ #2 (or Phase 2 expansion) site groundbreaking or staffing ramp announcementpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Global humanoid deployment exceeds 19,000 units across 15+ operatorspre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Figure AI annual production capacity reaches 12,000 units/year (BotQ)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — UBTECH Walker S2 mass production with >800M yuan order book reaches 1,000+ deliveredpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Cascade: Industry tracker reports >=5 vendors over 1,000-unit cumulative deployment by EOY 2027pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-27 — NASA Administrator confirms Artemis III pivots from lunar landing to Earth-orbit HLS/EVA testpre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Axiom AxEMU spacesuit test flight readiness review completedpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX Starship HLS uncrewed orbital demonstration completedpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Artemis III launches as Earth-orbit HLS/AxEMU rendezvous test mission (no lunar landing)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Artemis IV designated as first crewed lunar landing mission (2028)pre #6 · pending · 2027-07-02 — SpaceX Starship HLS uncrewed lunar demo lands successfullypre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — SLS Block 1B with Exploration Upper Stage completes Green Runpre #4 · pending · 2028-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-04-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — NASA confirms Artemis IV launch date within 90 days of T-0pre #1 · pending · 2028-05-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · hit · 2025-03-01 — Europa Clipper Mars gravity assist (March 2025 — preceding Earth flyby)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Europa Clipper instrument deployment / cruise calibration phasepre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-03 — Europa Clipper Earth gravity assist closest approach (~3,200 km)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Magnetometer calibration data published from Earth flybycascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Spacecraft trajectory enters Jupiter-bound cruise post-flybypre #5 · hit · 2024-11-25 — NASA awards Falcon Heavy launch contract for Dragonflypre #4 · hit · 2025-09-12 — Dragonfly rotor performance verified in Titan-like conditionspre #3 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Dragonfly enters integration and test phasepre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Dragonfly final spacecraft integration and shipment to KSCpre #1 · pending · 2028-07-15 — Dragonfly launch on Falcon Heavy, July 2028 windowpre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Falcon 9 launch services contract finalization for Haven-1pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Haven-1 launches on Falcon 9 (current targeted window May 2026)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Vast-1 first crewed mission to Haven-1pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Earth gravity assist: ESCAPADE flies ≤600 km of Earth and executes Mars escape burnspre #5 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Mars trans-injection cruise telemetry confirms nominal trajectory toward Sep 2027 arrivalpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Mars Orbit Insertion: 11-minute burns place Blue + Gold in highly elliptical orbitspre #6 · pending · 2026-10-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First commercial AI accelerator on N2 (Nvidia Rubin / AMD MI400 / Apple) shipspre #4 · pending · 2027-01-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — A16 (1.6nm) risk production tape-out at TSMCpre #2 · pending · 2027-04-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cascade: hyperscaler 2027 capex guidance cites N2/A16 capacity as bottleneckpre #5 · hit · 2026-01-28 — Moltbook launches with 150K+ AI agentspre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-10 — Meta acquires Moltbookpre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Moltbook crosses 1M total registered AI agentscascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Second autonomous agent platform launches with >100K agentscascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Closed-loop digital economy emerges (agents transact autonomously)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AAIF reaches 170 or more member organizationspre #5 · pending · 2026-09-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AAIF v1.0 vendor-neutral protocol standard publishedpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-31 — 3 or more hyperscalers ship native AAIF protocol support in production agent platformspre #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — AMD data-center server share crosses 50% (vs 40% in 2025)pre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Total data-center CPU TAM crosses $50B annual run-ratepre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Cascade: ARM (Ampere/Nvidia Vera/AWS Graviton) crosses 25% server CPU sharepre #3 · pending · 2030-03-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-05-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-07-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-03 — Memory consumes ~30% of hyperscaler AI capex in 2026 confirmedpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 2026 memory-maker earnings confirm 30%+ memory capex sharepre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — NVIDIA secures preferential HBM supply terms below market ratescascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — DRAM prices more than double in 2026 vs 2025 baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-15 — Hyperscaler total capex in 2026 reaches ~$600-725 billioncascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Memory pricing surge triggers 2027 industry margin compression and EPS missespre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2028-01-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First $10B+ valuation for pure-play data-flywheel agentic-commerce startup (non-LLM)pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Agentic-commerce protocol standard (ACP, MCP-commerce) ratified — flywheel network effects amplifypre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — McKinsey $5T agentic-commerce TAM milestone progress: $500B annualized GMV crossedpre #2 · pending · 2029-01-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-01-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Starlink crosses 10M global subscriberspre #5 · pending · 2026-11-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Starlink Mobile crosses 25M users targetpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Starlink latency benchmark falls below 25ms median in major routespre #1 · pending · 2028-07-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — First documented planetary-scale AI agent network using Starlink as primary backbonepre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — NASA Commercial LEO Destinations Phase 2 awards finalized — AI required as evaluated capabilitypre #5 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Vast Haven-1 single-module station launches with onboard AI life-support / health diagnosticspre #4 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Axiom Station first module launches and integrates with ISS (precursor to free-flyer)pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Resident-AI system officially declared 'mission-critical' on commercial station operations dashboardpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Three-stage payload hits credential / Kubernetes / backdoor at scalepre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second wave of AI-package supply-chain CVE during 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Enterprise breach attributable to AI-package compromise reported in SEC 8-Kpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Peer-reviewed study published demonstrating AI-evaded synthesis screening in real providerpre #4 · pending · 2027-11-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — International (G7 or OECD) coordination framework on AI-bio screening announcedpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-02 — Benchtop DNA synthesis device categorized as restricted-access dual-use technologypre #1 · pending · 2028-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-05 — AI-bio ChatGPT moment national-security framework treated equivalently to nuclear by 2029pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First state bar issues binding rule on AI-agent autonomy in legal practicepre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First federal circuit court of appeals AI-agent liability rulingpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First malpractice-style ruling against AI provider for autonomous-agent harmpre #1 · pending · 2028-08-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mid-tier foundation model startup goes bankrupt or distressed-salepre #4 · pending · 2027-09-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-01-29 — Major AI consolidation wave: distressed acquisitions acceleratepre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starcloud / Aetherflux launches 100+ kW orbital AI compute nodepre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Starcloud 88K satellite constellation FCC application progressespre #4 · pending · 2027-08-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — First operational orbital AI-DC reaches 1MW continuous compute powerpre #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Independent benchmark shows LAM > LLM on multi-step enterprise taskspre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Public market disclosure of prompt-engineering job decline / LAM-ops job creationpre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #1 · pending · 2029-04-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — DARPA / BARDA / NIH multi-year synbio biomanufacturing program >$1B announcedpre #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — AI-designed enzyme commercially licensed to Top-20 pharma or specialty chemical co.pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First cell-programmed industrial product passes $100M annual revenuepre #3 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Cell-programmed environmental biosensor deployed at city-scalepre #1 · pending · 2029-02-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First major developed economy reports negative working-age-population growth >2 yrspre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Inflation persistence above Fed 2% target driven by labor scarcity (not energy / supply)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — US labor-force participation rate falls below 60% (from 62.5%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-04-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — DRC cobalt/copper conflict escalates to militarized confrontation with M23 / Rwanda dimensionspre #4 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Project Vault and Western critical-mineral stockpile crosses $25B in deployed capitalpre #3 · pending · 2028-01-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-01-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — Cascade: regional water-rights conflict escalates to interstate military action over fertilizer/agriculture inputspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — IEA forecasts solar share crosses 15% by 2030 reaffirmedpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Solar LCOE crosses below $0.030/kWh global averagepre #3 · pending · 2028-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Lithium-ion battery storage LCOS crosses below $0.05/kWhpre #1 · pending · 2029-05-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-09-16 — Solar PV reaches 33% global electricity generationpre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major fossil-asset stranded write-down by global utilitypre #5 · pending · 2028-03-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Two-thirds of nations cross renewable-vs-existing-fossil tipping pointpre #3 · pending · 2029-05-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Scenario fires: Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Trillion-dollar fossil-fuel asset write-down cycle completedpre #6 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Battery pack price drops below $60/kWh (stationary storage)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — TransWest Express HVDC (3 GW Wyoming-to-Nevada) approved for full construction startpre #4 · pending · 2028-01-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Battery-swapping bankruptcy wave concludes; surviving operators scale to >=1,000 stationspre #2 · pending · 2029-01-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: ICE premium fully erased — EV TCO at parity for >=80% of vehicle classespre #6 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Demographic bifurcation explicitly cited in WEF Global Risks Report top-10 riskspre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Global merchandise trade growth turns negative for full calendar yearpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — G20 fractures into competing blocs (BRICS+ vs G7+) with divergent trade rulespre #3 · pending · 2028-01-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-01-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-11-30 — Cascade: regional currency bloc emerges (BRICS commodity currency or Asian RMB-denominated bloc) operationalizedpre #6 · pending · 2027-12-16 — US Inflation Reduction Act + critical-mineral domestic content rules drive >=$100B onshore capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — China non-pumped storage capacity exceeds 300 GW (energy-island anchor)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Saudi Arabia / Australia announce solar-anchor industrial export PPA at sub-2c/kWhpre #1 · pending · 2029-01-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Cascade: nation lacking energy-island stack experiences industrial output contraction >=10%pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Sub-cent solar PPA signed in any utility-scale US bid roundpre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Synthetic biology / bioprocessing market crosses $50B annual revenuepre #2 · pending · 2028-12-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — LanzaTech reaches 30,000 metric ton/year commercial-scale protein productioncascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-15 — Cascade: first gigaton-scale bio-industrial production milestone (>=1Gt CO2-equivalent feedstock processed)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major physical-supply-chain disruption removes >10% of global advanced-node fab inputspre #5 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Hyperscaler capex announcements explicitly cite power-grid constraints as bindingpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — US strategic stockpile or DPA action on chip-grade gases / rare earthspre #3 · pending · 2028-01-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AGI-claiming lab announces deployment delay tied to compute or powerpre #1 · pending · 2029-01-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Major migration / asylum policy crisis in OECD bloc with explicit demographic-bifurcation framing in policy languagepre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Africa-origin labor-arbitrage migration agreement signed between EU/US and Sub-Saharan partnerpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — China population decline accelerates beyond projection (>=10M annual decline)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: dependency-ratio crisis triggers pension-system insolvency event in major OECD economypre #6 · pending · 2027-12-16 — China solar manufacturing capacity exceeds 1,500 GW/yrpre #5 · pending · 2027-12-16 — China clean-energy share of new generation crosses 60%pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Global annual solar deployment exceeds 800 GWpre #2 · pending · 2029-03-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Scenario fires: Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Sequoia/A16Z formally publish 'agentic leverage' underwriting modelpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Solopreneur stack cost falls below $15K/yr with full agent toolchainpre #4 · pending · 2027-02-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Middle management headcount falls 15%+ at Fortune 500pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First public S-1 / IPO from sub-10-employee company with >$50M ARRpre #6 · pending · 2026-08-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — MCP (Model Context Protocol) adopted as standard in major university CS curriculumpre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Hiring data shows 'AI orchestration' as fastest-growing job-posting keywordpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Top-20 university announces full agentic-AI undergraduate major (degree-bearing)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-16 — Traditional skill-based curricula see >20% enrollment decline in CS / professional schoolspre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Form Bio platform expands to handle Tasmanian tiger and dodo de-extinction pipelinespre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First viable woolly mammoth embryo announcement (Asian elephant surrogate)pre #4 · pending · 2029-12-31 — First live-born woolly mammoth calf (or formal program failure announcement)pre #3 · pending · 2031-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2031-03-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2031-04-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Meta + Microsoft 20K combined cuts cite AI as causepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5 (or GPT-5.5) frontier reasoning model widely deployed in enterprisepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Public corporate-collapse signal: >=2 Fortune 500 firms enter restructuring citing AI failurepre #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs cross 500Kcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs reach 1.1M — Blundin specific targetpre #6 · hit · 2025-08-15 — Varda Series C ($187M) closes — capital for commercial scalepre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Varda W-4 mission in orbit; W-5 expected before end of yearpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Varda begins biologics (monoclonal antibody) crystallization programcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — First commercial pharma drug returned from microgravity demonstrably superiorcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FDA / partner announces clinical pathway for orbital-manufactured pharmapre #4 · overdue · 2024-08-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2024-09-12 — Salesforce Agentforce consumption-pricing pivot announcedpre #2 · overdue · 2025-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-10-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major SaaS vendor reports YoY net revenue retention declinecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major SaaS company (top 25 by revenue) acquired or restructured citing AI displacementcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Outcome-based / agent-based pricing exceeds 25% of new SaaS dealspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-12 — NVIDIA + Eli Lilly announce $1B AI co-innovation lab on BioNeMo platformpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-16 — Roche launches NVIDIA-powered AI factory for therapeutics developmentpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — ≥200 AI-discovered drug programs in clinical developmentpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First BioNeMo / Evo 2-designed therapeutic enters Phase 1 human trialpre #1 · pending · 2028-02-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — ≥1 BioNeMo-designed drug receives FDA breakthrough/fast-track designationpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-28 — AI clone leads public-company earnings call (AI-CEO proxy event)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First fully-AI-operated entity reports ≥$10M annual revenuepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-operated entity reaches billion-dollar valuation (Mostaque's 'AI billionaire')pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk announces Mars 2026 mission deprioritized, delayed 5-7 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Starship orbital refueling demonstration completedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 2026 Mars transfer window (Nov-Dec 2026) closes with zero Starship launchescascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX Starship cumulative successful test flights reach 15+ by end of 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Next viable Mars window targeted by SpaceX shifts to 2028/29pre #6 · hit · 2026-05-01 — AI agent registers EIN, opens bank account, and operates as autonomous corporationpre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First single-founder company achieves $1B annualized revenuepre #2 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-operated company crosses $1B valuation with no human CEOpre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — MicroStrategy/Strategy crosses 1M BTC holdingspre #5 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Public companies holding BTC as treasury asset exceed 300 globallypre #4 · pending · 2027-12-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AI-displacement-driven QE: Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion >=$1T in single year tied to labor market interventiopre #2 · pending · 2028-11-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: BTC hits >=$500K per coin (Saylor's mathematical-defense thesis activates)pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-06 — Anthropic Q1 2026 labor market report identifies 4 most-exposed sectorspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Junior SWE employment drops ~20% post-ChatGPTpre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Entry-level postings fall 35% from Jan 2023 baselinepre #2 · pending · 2026-06-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AI-driven 0.13-0.20% nonfarm-employment displacement confirmedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-leveraged firms post >=10% productivity gains for retained workerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Net 4% reduction across AI-exposed sectors confirmed in 2026 BLS datapre #6 · pending · 2026-12-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Rentosertib or other AI-designed drug reads out positive Phase III resultpre #4 · pending · 2027-11-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Biotech sector forward P/E or median EV/Revenue rerates above 5y average per XBI/Bloombergpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Gene-editing TAM expansion: first cardiovascular-prevention gene therapy enters Phase IIIpre #1 · pending · 2028-11-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Apptronik Apollo deployed at Mercedes-Benz manufacturing plant for tote deliverypre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour throughput at BotQpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — First city/state municipal humanoid-as-service contract announcedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Hundreds of robotics companies confirmed in active humanoid commercial pilotscascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative humanoid robots deployed in commercial workforce >=10,000 unitspre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-01 — Salesforce / McKinsey / Cisco surveys show >=50% of execs say agentic AI critical to survival by 2027pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Agentic AI deployment crosses 50% adoption among Fortune 500pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly-traded ExO-native enterprise IPOs at $10B+ valuationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Aggregate W-2 employment in Fortune 500 declines >=5% YoYpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Eric Schmidt projects 30% annual productivity gain from AIpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frontier lab discloses ≥50% AI-authored code in productionpre #4 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First documented case of AI generating ≥80% of new scientific paper output at major labpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — xAI Colossus crosses 555K GPUspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-08 — Microsoft contracts 30K Rubin GPUs at Norway data centerpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US government action: data-center grid build-out Defense Production Act invocationpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Hundreds-of-millions GPUs deployed across leading clusters by end-2027cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — TSMC Arizona phase 2 begins 3nm mass productionpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — China data center construction capacity disclosure (MIIT or equivalent)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Chinese frontier model trained on domestic chips reaches Claude/GPT-class capabilitycascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — U.S. export-control modification or enforcement gap announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Chinese AI lab announces frontier-scale training run on domestic infrastructurepre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — BLS publishes Q1 2026 wage data showing data-center technician wage growthcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major hyperscaler announces dedicated trade-skills training partnershipcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major union (IBEW, UA) reports 20%+ apprenticeship enrollment growthcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Six-figure wages disclosed for AI-DC construction tradespre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First Vera Rubin systems deployed at Stargate sitespre #5 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI Stargate international expansion (Argentina 100 MW phase)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI share of global AI training compute exceeds 25%pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Scenario fires: Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-05-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First documented data-center AI capacity curtailment due to grid power shortfallpre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Alphabet long-term debt quadrupled to $46.5B in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Hyperscalers raised $108B in debt during 2025 alonepre #4 · hit · 2026-02-06 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex aggregate confirmed >$600Bpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Goldman: hyperscaler capex 2025-2027 will reach $1.15T (vs $477B 2022-24)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q1-Q2 2026 hyperscaler earnings reaffirm capex guidance unchanged or upcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Credit markets show stress: hyperscaler bond spreads widen >50bps in 2026pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — IEA annual outlook updates AI-DC share of global power growth ≥20%pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — US utility capex commitments cross $1.4T cumulative for AI grid buildpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Behind-the-meter natural gas + nuclear PPAs reach 50 GW signedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — US DC power shortfall reaches 44 GW (worst case)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — 126 GW/yr DC demand growth realized 2026-2028 cumulativelypre #6 · pending · 2026-11-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Onsite natural gas projects represent largest near-term DC power solution in USpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Microsoft-Constellation Three Mile Island PPA delivers 837MW for AI data centerspre #2 · pending · 2028-07-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Natural gas share of new global ex-China power additions crosses 20% threshold by late 2020scascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — First commercial SMR delivers power to a hyperscaler data centerpre #5 · hit · 2024-09-03 — Morgan Stanley research publishes 2.5B tons CO2 cumulative emissions through 2030 thesispre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Hyperscaler 2026 sustainability reports show emissions trajectory off-targetpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major hyperscaler walks back 2030 net-zero pledge or extends timelinecascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Carbon removal market scales 5x to meet data-center decarbonization demandcascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Climate policy compliance gap formally documented in COP/IPCC outputscascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Annual data-center GHG emissions rise to ~600 Mt CO2-equiv by 2030 (3x 2024)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — NVIDIA Rubin reference design mandates liquid-to-chip coolingpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major hyperscaler (Microsoft / Google / Meta) publishes WUE alongside PUE in sustainability reportpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Liquid cooling commands ~65% of liquid-cooling market in AI data centerspre #3 · pending · 2027-01-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Two-phase immersion cooling deployed at >5GW of new AI capacitypre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — ICON Titan first commercial customer deliveries beginpre #4 · pending · 2027-07-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — First hyperscaler signs contract for 3D-printed or robot-assembled DC shellpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Building code body approves 3D-printed structures for industrial/commercial DC classpre #1 · pending · 2028-04-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-31 — First fully-3D-printed hyperscale DC shell completedpre #4 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028pre #3 · pending · 2029-02-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AMD MI400 series (CDNA Next) ships at 40 PFLOPS FP4 / 432 GB HBM4 / 19.6 TB/spre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — FullFlat optical NVLink network topology demonstrated for inter-node uniform bandwidthpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Hardware-software co-design tooling (Nemotron-Flash / Liquid AI) hits production for inferencepre #2 · pending · 2027-05-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Hyperscaler announces dedicated 'AI utility' offering with SLA-backed inference uptime ≥99.99%pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Tech sector single-month layoffs exceed 45K (March 2026 worst month in 2 years)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS reports >5% YoY decline in entry-level white-collar job postingspre #4 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Inference cost-per-token drops 10x further by end-2027 (toward electricity floor)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Major economic-policy report attributes >10% white-collar attrition to AIpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Big-4 consultancy launches outcome-based AI pricing pilotcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Major SaaS company announces shift to usage/outcome pricingcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Hyperscaler (AWS, Azure, GCP) launches outcome-based AI service tiercascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Industry analyst declares 'outcome economy' as dominant pricing trendpre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Puget Sound Energy multi-year residential rate hike approved by WA UTCpre #5 · pending · 2027-01-15 — WA HB 2515 / SB 6171 reintroduced in 2027 session after 2026 failurepre #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Voter-facing PAC backlash translates into ballot measure or moratoriumpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Similar rate-case filings in Virginia / Ohio / Arizona — DC corridor statespre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — EIA confirms WA residential rate trajectory crosses +20% cumulative by mid-2027cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-02 — WA residential prices reach +30% above 2024 baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — DC share of WA electricity reaches 13% (vs 6% in 2023)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Equinix raises full-year 2026 guidance after Q1 strengthpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — xScale program reaches >=2 GW total capacity / >=$23B investment commitmentpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — AI/HPC bookings remain >50% of net new revenue mixpre #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — First xScale customer onboarding milestone (Q4 2026)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Equinix delivers >=80% of 2026 announced project portfolio operational by year-endpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Fabric8Labs pilot production facility operationalpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — ECAM cold plates demonstrate 35-48% cooling improvement over microchannelspre #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First hyperscaler design win for ECAM cold plates announcedpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — ECAM-printed cold plates ship in production AI rack at scale (>10k units)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-17 — BYD, Geely, Nissan adopt NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion for L4 vehiclespre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mercedes-Benz S-Class L4 chauffeured experience commercialcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Edge AI inference compute units cross 100M shipped (cumulative)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First production agricultural robot fleet >10K unitspre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — DoD or Pentagon publishes binding AI-procurement framework for frontier modelspre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — China announces dedicated >5 GW state-backed AI compute campuspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — China demonstrates frontier-class model trained predominantly on domestic chipspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-27 — AI arms race becomes mainstream foreign-policy framing by 2029pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Standardized test scores show measurable Alpha vs traditional gappre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Teachers union files formal labor or legal challenge to AI-instructor modelpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First public school district adopts 2-Hour Learning model or Alpha curriculum licensepre #1 · pending · 2028-08-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data center occupancy peaks ~95% late 2026, moderates starting 2027pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Blackwell/Rubin GPU spot prices fall >30% from 2026 peak ASPpre #3 · pending · 2029-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — First major US power-PPA gets renegotiated downward by hyperscalerpre #1 · pending · 2030-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Deloitte/EY full-year 2026 GDP forecasts converge at ~2.0%pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — BEA Q1 2026 advance estimate: 2.0% real GDP growthpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 AI capex contributed 75% of GDP increasepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-capex slowdown narrative emerges in 2H 2026 commentarycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI productivity gains lag — show up in 2027+ datacascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Full-year 2026 GDP final reading lands 1.6-2.5%pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — US data-center electricity consumption crosses 250 TWh annual run ratepre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: 20% of planned DC projects publicly delayed citing transmission bottleneckpre #3 · pending · 2030-02-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-04-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-05-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Cascade: second hyperscaler announces >250 MW advanced-fission PPA templatepre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Hermes 1 reactor first criticality at Oak Ridgepre #4 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First commercial KP-FHR reactor begins construction at TVA / utility-host sitepre #3 · pending · 2030-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-04-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-05-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Alphabet 10-K or sustainability report discloses first MWh of KP-FHR deliverypre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Helion Polaris test reactor demonstrates first electricity generationpre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Helion completes follow-on funding round to scale Orion constructionpre #4 · pending · 2028-02-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Helion delivers first MW of fusion electricity to Microsoft via PPApre #1 · pending · 2028-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028pre #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Helion Orion 50 MW Microsoft plant operational in Malaga, WApre #4 · pending · 2029-09-30 — Helion completes 10+ reactor units (500 MW cumulative installed)pre #3 · pending · 2030-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2030-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Microgrid + DERMS adoption crosses 18.5 GWh installed globallycascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 72% of new US grid additions through 2030 are solar/storage/microgridcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major utility deploys DERMS at scale to coordinate residential VPPcascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Residential solar+battery attach rate >=50% in CA/AZ/TX new installationscascade #4 · pending · 2029-03-16 — FERC issues final rule mandating DERMS interconnection standardspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-26 — CATL launches commercial sodium-ion battery productionpre #5 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-05 — First mass-produced sodium-ion EV unveiled (Changan + CATL)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-28 — QuantumScape Eagle Line opens with QSE-5 cells deliveredpre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Toyota begins solid-state battery productioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Third non-lithium chemistry (LFMP, lithium-sulfur, or zinc-air) commercializespre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla Megablock 20MWh integrated BESS deployed in commercial sitepre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — EU large-battery installed base exceeds 25 GWpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — EU negative-price hours decline year-over-year for first time since 2022pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Renewable IPP earnings call cites battery-arbitrage as primary economic driverpre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Uber AV service deployed in ≥10 citiespre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — First charging-network operator reports ≥40% revenue from AV-fleet utilization guaranteespre #3 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Single frontier lab deploys >100M AI-instance compute pool dedicated to research-automationpre #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Frontier ML benchmark improvement rate accelerates >2x trailing 5-yr trendlinepre #4 · pending · 2027-09-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — First frontier lab declares 'recursive self-improvement loop active' or equivalentpre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI co-authored physics paper published in top peer-reviewed journalpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — DeepMind publishes AI-driven novel theoretical-physics result with experimental predictionpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-15 — AI system unifies GR and QM into validated mathematical frameworkpre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 earnings: Fremont line conversion confirmed for late July/Augpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Optimus low-volume production starts at Fremont (summer 2026)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Optimus retail price publicly disclosed at $20-30K per unitcascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First Optimus retail customer / external sales contract announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative external Optimus units sold >=100pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Optimus integration testing on Starship payload mock-upcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX confirms Starship V3 readiness for Mars launch windowcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Optimus reaches Mars surface in 2026 launchcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-01 — Mars launch window opens November 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-16 — If 2026 launch slips, formal target shifts to 2028 transfer windowpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Challenger Gray attributes >=200K layoffs to AI in single yearpre #4 · pending · 2027-04-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — ADP youth-cohort employment in computer/math drops >=10% YoYpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First quarter of US unemployment rate >=6% with AI cited as primary driverpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Diamandis 'Agentic Era' marker — autonomous agents drive >=10% of GDPpre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anduril S-1 filed (first a16z American Dynamism portfolio IPO candidate)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — a16z American Dynamism Fund III closes >=$1.5B (validates LP demand for thesis)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Hadrian or other a16z American Dynamism portfolio company files S-1 ahead of Andurilpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First a16z American Dynamism portfolio company prices IPO and begins tradingpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — a16z allocates $1.7B to AI infrastructure within $15B fundpre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Hadrian builds out 5 additional AI-driven military factoriespre #4 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First a16z-backed factory-as-product company crosses $500M annualized revenuepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First Factory-as-Product company crosses $1B revenue thresholdcascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Factory-is-the-Product model adopted broadly across industrial manufacturingpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Bipartisan US bill targeting China access to semiconductor manufacturing toolspre #5 · pending · 2027-04-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — US industrial-policy package targeting commercial robotics or hardware sectorpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Major US automaker or industrial firm publicly cites loss of price/scale to Chinese competitorpre #1 · pending · 2029-11-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Pentagon agentic-AI prototype delivers first operational decision-loop in classified envpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Replicator scales from 'hundreds' to >10,000 fielded autonomous attritable systemspre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — China publishes equivalent autonomous-warfare program with comparable scalepre #1 · pending · 2029-09-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Gwynne Shotwell publicly states 140-145 Falcon 9 launches target for 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Artemis IV Moon mission targeting 2028 confirmed by Shotwellpre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — SpaceX Falcon 9 H1 2026 launch cadence on track for 70+ launches by mid-yearpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-01 — SpaceX achieves 140 Falcon 9 launches by year-end 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Starship operational for AI satellite mass deployment by 2027pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Stargate reaches 10GW deployed capacity per OpenAI/NVIDIA letter of intentpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First single-site >=5GW data-center power purchase agreement signedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Hyperscaler boardroom communication or analyst day cites $100B-tier single-cluster training capexpre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Aggregate hyperscaler+OpenAI announced capex for AI training reaches $1T cumulativepre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — GPT-5 / Claude Opus 5 release with claimed PhD-level reasoningcascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-17 — MMLU saturated (≥95%) by all frontier modelscascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GPQA-Diamond benchmark crosses 90% by frontier modelcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Aschenbrenner (or peer) publishes 'Situational Awareness II' or similar treatise marking AGI thresholdcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Hyperscaler PPA-driven cancellation/delay of >=10 GW US data center capacity in single yearpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Hyperscalers move to direct generation financing (gas turbines, SMRs) at >=5 GW combined commitmentpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Long-term firm power contracts (>=10 yr) on PJM/ERCOT/MISO interconnection queue exceed 200 GWpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Cascade: utility regulatory body imposes data center curtailment or queue rationingpre #1 · pending · 2028-11-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-25 — Bloom Energy / Lumentum / CoreWeave become top-3 fund holdingspre #5 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Bitcoin miner converts to AI compute facilitypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI infrastructure ETF (e.g. WGMI, ATO, IPO funds) AUM crosses $20Bpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Pure-software developer SaaS company multiple compresses by ≥30% vs infrastructure peerspre #1 · pending · 2028-05-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2031-09-02 — Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years.cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.pre #6 · overdue · 2025-12-31 — Stargate full $500B / 10GW commitment secured by end-2025pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Abilene remaining 6 buildings completed by mid-2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First Vera Rubin chips deployed at Stargate sitepre #2 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Scenario fires: Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-21 — Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.cascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-06-23 — AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects.cascade #5 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · overdue · 2025-04-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-07-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · hit · 2025-11-12 — WSJ confirms OpenAI 2025 financial loss disclosurecascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI ARR crosses $25B thresholdcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — OpenAI 2026 financial disclosure shows ~$14B+ lossescascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI Stargate $500B partnership delivers first 10GW phasecascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #6 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Stargate exceeds 10GW infrastructure committed (target was 2029)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI revenue crosses $30B annualized run-ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-09-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-31 — OpenAI's enterprise market share crosses 50% of foundation model spendpre #1 · pending · 2028-07-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — OpenAI explicitly described or regulated as 'utility-like' AI infrastructurepre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-19 — We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-13 — By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.cascade #4 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.cascade #5 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-04-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-05-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.pre #6 · hit · 2025-07-15 — July 2025 reversal of H20 chip banpre #5 · hit · 2025-08-11 — Trump-Nvidia 15% China revenue deal announcedpre #4 · overdue · 2025-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — First Nvidia quarterly earnings disclosing China revenue post-dealpre #2 · overdue · 2026-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-02 — Legal/constitutional challenge to revenue-share arrangementcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-19 — We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Other countries impose similar revenue-share on US tech exportscascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-13 — By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Huawei Ascend 950PR begins mass production at SMICpre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ByteDance + Alibaba large Ascend 950PR purchase orders confirmed ($5B+ scale)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Huawei in-house HBM ships in 950PR variant (resilience milestone)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SMIC reaches 60K wafers/month advanced-node (7nm/5nm) capacitycascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Cascade: NVIDIA China data-center revenue lags expectations as Ascend 950PR captures sharecascade #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cumulative Ascend 910C + 950 series shipments cross 1.6M dies in 2026cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — TSMC 2nm baseline at end-2025: 30K-40K wafers/monthpre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — TSMC 3nm output target raised to 180K wafers/month by EOY 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — TSMC 2nm priced 50% above 3nmcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — TSMC 2nm reaches ~100K wafers/month by end-2026 (matches thesis)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commoncascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: TSMC 2nm output exceeds 3nm by 2x by 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commoncascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Samsung 2nm yields reach 55-60% commercially viable levelpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Samsung 2nm foundry capacity scales to 100K wpm in 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Samsung wins major Western customer (AMD, Qualcomm, Tesla, or hyperscaler) for sub-7nm productioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Combined Samsung 3nm + 5nm + 2nm sub-7nm capacity reaches 150K wpmcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Samsung 1c DRAM scales to 200K wafers/month (related capacity buildout)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commoncascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — TSMC advanced chip capacity booked out through 2028 confirmedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · hit · 2026-03-31 — TSMC 3nm and 5nm production fully booked for 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — SMIC advanced-process capacity remains <125,000 wafers in 2026 (8x gap holds)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — NVIDIA Q2-Q4 2026 data-center revenue confirms 800K wafer absorptioncascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — TSMC's 3nm capacity reaches 180,000 wafers/month by end-2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 release confirmedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Quantization breakthrough — V4 reduces inference FLOPs to 27% of V3.2pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Qwen 3.6 release with sub-10B competitive frontiercascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Chinese frontier model crosses ≥10T total parameterscascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Retrospective verdict on '100x leap by 2026' — likely PARTIALcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — FP4 inference lands in mainstream open-source frameworkspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 KV cache quantization confirms architecture decouplingpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Ternary-weight production model released by major labcascade #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Embargoed-nation AI lab demonstrates frontier capability via FP4/ternary stackcascade #3 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Hyperscalers sign 3-year prepaid GPU supply contractspre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Hyperscaler 2026 AI infrastructure capex exceeds $660Bpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Semi sector earnings beat consensus through Q3 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Major analyst downgrades semis citing AI bubble in 2H 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-20 — Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — HBM4 mass production launches February 2026 at SK Hynixpre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Server DRAM contract prices rise 55-60% in Q1 2026pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — HBM4 reaches $500/stack pricing benchmarkpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Memory stocks (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung) outperform PHLX SOX in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshipcascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-08-12 — Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-30 — NVDA trades through $250 within 12-month target windowpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex commits exceed $600B per CreditSightspre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — MS raises NVDA target above $250 to next bull-case rungcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Rubin R100 begins customer sampling Q4 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — HBM4 mass production crosses 50K wafers/monthpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Rubin Ultra NVL576 product unveilcascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Rubin contributes ≥30% of NVIDIA Data Center revenuecascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-20 — Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-19 — We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-13 — By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshipcascade #4 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-08-12 — Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)cascade #6 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-24 — AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-11 — Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-20 — Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Wilson confirms AI productivity diffusion thesis in 2026 US Outlook podcastpre #5 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-03 — S&P 500 EPS revisions trend upward to ~17% growth consensuspre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Operating margin expansion observed in non-megacap S&P sectorspre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Multiple-expansion surprise materializes in 2026 H2cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — S&P 500 closes 2026 within 5% of 7,800 target (i.e., 7,400-8,200 range)cascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-31 — DRAM consumer prices reach $700 (March 2026)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — HBM contract prices up high-teens to low-twenties in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — NVIDIA cuts RTX 50-series consumer Blackwell production 30-40%cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — HBM consumes 23% of total DRAM wafer capacitycascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Cascade: Memory price relief delayed until 2027-2029cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshipcascade #6 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — DeepMind / Google AI fluid-dynamics paper or AlphaProof Navier-Stokes preprint surfacescascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AlphaProof / Gemini Deep Think achieves IMO-gold tier on adult research math benchmark (FrontierMath / Putnam)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Terence Tao or Fields-medal mathematician publicly endorses AI proof candidatecascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Clay Mathematics Institute publishes statement evaluating any AI-assisted submissioncascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — If ungranted by 2026-12-31, claim downgrades and probability decays toward 0.05cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — OpenAI announces GPT-5.2 derives new theoretical physics resultpre #5 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Peer-reviewed arXiv preprint with IAS/Cambridge/Harvard/OpenAI authorspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Second AI-derived physics result published by different labcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major physics journal accepts AI-derived result for publicationcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI surpasses median IMO gold medalist at IMO 2026 or 2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Fields-Medal-tier mathematician publicly endorses AI as research collaboratorpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI co-authored proof of previously-open math problem accepted in Annals of Math / Inventionescascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — SWE-Bench Verified reaches ≥95%pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-02 — AI achieves Codeforces Grandmaster (2400+) or top-100 ICPC equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Frontier lab uses 'world-class programmer' framing in official communicationspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-15 — AI solves research-level (PhD-difficulty) coding problem unaidedcascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Frontier model passes standardized senior+ engineering interview processcascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: open-source model crosses world-class programmer thresholdcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Frontier lab announces general-knowledge-worker capability claimcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS shows multiple consecutive quarters of white-collar employment declinecascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major consultancy reports AI-driven cost reduction in target functionscascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative knowledge-worker layoffs >250K in 18-month windowcascade #5 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · overdue · 2025-05-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-09-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2025-08-15 — Musk publicly claims Grok 5 has 10% probability of achieving AGIpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — xAI announces Grok 5 with 6T parameters and AGI-class capability claimspre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Frontier capability ceiling visible: GPT-5/Mythos/Gemini 3/Grok 5 cluster on similar benchmarkscascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Independent benchmark (METR / ARC-AGI / FrontierMath) characterizes a 2025-2026 model as superhuman across most professicascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mainstream consensus shifts to AGI/superintelligence post-2026 (2027-2030)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintpre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · overdue · 2025-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · hit · 2025-12-31 — MSTR stock loses ~50% in 2025 — undermines outperformance thesis short-termpre #2 · hit · 2026-01-15 — MSTR delivers 22.8% BTC Yield in 2025pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-26 — MSTR holdings cross 800K BTC thresholdcascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Bitcoin treasury strategy adopted by 10+ public companiescascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — BTC-treasury company outperforms enterprise software peers by ≥3x over 3-year horizoncascade #3 · pending · 2029-05-24 — Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.cascade #4 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.cascade #5 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First orbital compute demonstrator launch (Starcloud or SpaceX prototype)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — FCC issues partial / waiver authorization for SpaceX orbital data center systempre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Rival hyperscaler files for or announces orbital compute system (Google / AWS / Microsoft)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-04-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Blue Moon MK1 cargo soft-lands near Shackleton Craterpre #4 · pending · 2027-01-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Blue Origin lands Shackleton cargo BEFORE SpaceX (Diamandis prediction holds)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — SpaceX Starship lunar lander HLS demo flight (Artemis III prep)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #4 · hit · 2025-12-01 — OpenAI Frontier Alliance launches with McKinsey/BCG/Accenture/Capgeminipre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — McKinsey survey shows >20% of organizations have scaled AI agentscascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Named F500 announces AI-native operating-model transformationcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BCG reports >40% of companies successfully scaled AI to deliver business valuecascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — F500 average AI-related headcount restructuring announced (cascade)cascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-11 — Lovable reports $400M ARR with 146 employees ($2.77M ARR/FTE)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SaaStr / industry consensus: $500K ARR/employee is the new $200K benchmarkpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Cursor reaches $2B ARR (~$13.3M ARR/employee)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First public AI-native unicorn ($1B+ valuation) with <=10 FTEcascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: average AI-native seed-funded startup raises <=$2M before $10M ARRcascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cosmic-ray bit flip / fault-tolerance papers published from frontier training runspre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First training run on cluster of >=200k GPUs completes successfully without abortpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — xAI Mississippi 2GW $20B facility breaks ground / commissionspre #2 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Public reliability / MTBF metric framework adopted across hyperscalers for >100k-GPU runscascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI deprecates SWE-Bench Verified as too contaminatedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — Claude Mythos Preview crosses 90% on SWE-Bench Verifiedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Long-horizon multi-day software-engineering benchmark crossed by Claude/GPTcascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Iterative self-improvement loop demonstrated on coding agentcascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Starlink 2026 revenue exceeds $20Bpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Starship V3 / orbital refueling demonstrated (2/3 valuation pillar)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-13 — ≥24 of Space 60 constituents return >100% over trailing 12 monthspre #5 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-14 — First Morgan Stanley Space 60 rebalance / constituent change publicationpre #3 · pending · 2027-07-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-30 — Aggregate Space 60 market cap doubles vs April-2026 baselinepre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-01 — xAI-SpaceX-Tesla three-way combination publicly proposed by Musk or boardpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX completes traditional IPO without Tesla reverse merger structure (DISCONFIRMING signal)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Wall Street analyst consensus shifts toward Tesla-SpaceX merger 2027 timeline (Teslarati-cited prediction validated)pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-01-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2010-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2015-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2020-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — SpaceX Starship V3 reaches stable Earth orbit (precondition for tanker demo)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — First two-Starship orbital propellant transfer demonstration: target + chaser dockingpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Multi-tanker depot architecture demonstrated (≥3 sequential propellant fills)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — NASA Artemis HLS depot operations declared 'mission-ready' (10-tanker architecture)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Commercial astronaut mission cadence reaches ≥4/yearpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — SpaceX Starship uncrewed lunar demo completespre #3 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First inter-operator autonomous collision-avoidance handshake protocol publishedpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Operational LEO satellite count crosses 12,000pre #4 · pending · 2027-10-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First AI-flagged pre-failure satellite hardware anomaly publicly disclosedpre #2 · pending · 2028-08-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Major collision event triggers regulatory mandate for autonomous CApre #6 · hit · 2026-04-13 — Planet announces Owl constellation with NVIDIA GPUs onboard for AI tip-and-cuepre #5 · pending · 2026-11-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First commercial EO constellation announces 'downlink only insights' policypre #3 · pending · 2027-09-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Major EO customer (defense or commercial) signs >$100M contract for insight-only productpre #6 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI agent hallucination rate from multimodal inputs benchmarked and improvingpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Earth-observation/space-data multimodal startup gets enterprise contract >=$50Mpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Major hyperscaler (AWS, GCP, Azure) acquires multimodal-data-pipeline startup >=$2Bpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Reka AI, Twelve Labs, or comparable multimodal incumbent crosses $5B threshold firstcascade #1 · pending · 2028-08-15 — First multimodal-data-pipeline startup achieves $5B+ valuationpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Defense Industrial Base Consortium issues critical-minerals RFPpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Pentagon expands DPA Title III investments to ≥2 of (Almonty, Freeport, Alcoa, Teck)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major launch provider (SpaceX/BO/RL) signs critical-mineral supplier agreementpre #1 · pending · 2028-04-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — MP Materials 10X Facility commissionedpre #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — G7 critical-minerals price floor or buyer's club operationalizedpre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First aerospace prime (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) announces full critical-mineral domestic-source mandatepre #4 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — First major US national champion rare-earth or tungsten refiner operating at scalepre #2 · pending · 2029-06-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — US import reliance for rare earths drops below 50% (from 80% in 2024)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Terran R first-stage Aeon R engine static-fire tests completepre #5 · pending · 2026-08-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Terran R maiden orbital launch attemptpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Relativity demonstrates AI/ML+robotics print-rate or part-count milestonepre #1 · pending · 2027-12-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2024-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First $1B+ valuation for autonomous-agent-only aerospace companypre #2 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-01 — Trillion-dollar AI agent economy reaches measurable thresholdpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Wage premium for AI-augmented creative roles documentedpre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — FAANG / frontier AI labs explicitly hire 'product taste' / 'vision' roles at premiumpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Cognitive capacity in data centers eclipses human cognition (Altman late-2028 projection)pre #3 · overdue · 2012-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2017-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2021-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
1115 plotted · 89 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.
AMZN-impacting (4)
CMQ_056
SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
82% → 19% · resolves 2026-12
-63pp
235_019
SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.
65% → 13% · resolves 2027-06
-52pp
CMQ_055
SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV
Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes.
78% → 29% · resolves 2028-09
-49pp
CMQ_053
SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV
Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing.
99% → 55% · resolves 2026-09
-44pp
CRWV-impacting (4)
CYB_024
CRWV · WULF · EQIX · OKLO
The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security...
72% → 17% · resolves 2030-09
-55pp
248_019
TSEM · SKYT · MRCY · RKLB
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.
65% → 12% · resolves 2026-06
-53pp
CMQ_030
NVDA · ALAB · CRWV · NBIS
In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio).
78% → 34% · resolves 2026-12
-44pp
INF_049
CRWV · NBIS · APLD · IREN
Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon supply — has become the absolute primary bottleneck for AI scalability, and these concentrated power needs cannot be reliably connected to existing public ...
92% → 50% · resolves 2026-11
-42pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.