Timeline Fan

65 of 65 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPOAGIAI pauseASIMars uncrewedRecessionCompute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)
Tradeable only
Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)
Window
next 12 monext 24 monext 5 yr (default)5y + tail
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Resolved
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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100historyPMCI_FSLR_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — FSLR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_FTNT_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — FTNT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_CDNS_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — CDNS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐PMCI_MKSI_20260518 resolved miss on 2026-05-25 — MKSI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✗230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓PMCI_ENVX_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — ENVX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_QCOM_20260515 resolved hit on 2026-05-22 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✓PMCI_MU_20260515 resolved miss on 2026-05-22 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✗PMCI_RRX_20260519 resolved hit on 2026-05-26 — RRX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-19✓239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐PMCI_SNOW_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SNOW >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓PMCI_NVDA_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — NVDA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_TSLA_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — TSLA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_AGX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AGX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ALAB_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ALAB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ASML_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ASML >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CB_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_COHR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — COHR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CORZ_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — CORZ >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CRM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CRM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CRWD_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — CRWD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CRWV_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CRWV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GEV_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GEV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗PMCI_FERG_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — FERG >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_FIX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — FIX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GEHC_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GEHC >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GFS_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GFS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_LITE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — LITE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_LMB_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — LMB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗PMCI_LRCX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — LRCX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_LUNR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — LUNR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_MRVL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MRVL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MSFT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MSFT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MTSI_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — MTSI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_MU_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_NVO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NVO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NXPI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NXPI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_OKLO_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — OKLO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ORCL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ORCL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RTX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RTX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RUN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RUN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_PLTR_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — PLTR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_PYPL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — PYPL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_QCOM_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_QLYS_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — QLYS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RBRK_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RBRK >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RIOT_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — RIOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_RIVN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RIVN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SAP_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SAP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TRU_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TRU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RKLB_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — RKLB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_RLAY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RLAY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ROOT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ROOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TXN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TXN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SYM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SYM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_T_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — T >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SERV_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SERV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TEM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TEM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TSEM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TSEM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TSM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TSM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_XIACY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — XIACY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_VRT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — VRT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AAPL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AAPL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_V_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — V >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_XYL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — XYL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TMUS_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TMUS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CIFR_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CIFR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SIEGY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SIEGY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SPOT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SPOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SMMNY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SMMNY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SBGSY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SBGSY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_XOM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — XOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RYCEY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RYCEY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_VZ_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — VZ >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BRK.B_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BRK.B >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BYDDY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BYDDY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_UBER_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — UBER >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_EADSY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — EADSY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_WDAY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — WDAY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓PMCI_VST_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — VST >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SHOP_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SHOP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ABT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ABT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ACLS_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ACLS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ACN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ACN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MCHP_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MCHP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ADBE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ADBE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ADI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ADI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AEHR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — AEHR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ALL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ALL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AMAT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AMAT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AMT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AMT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MDT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MDT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MLI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MLI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AMZN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AMZN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ANET_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ANET >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_APLD_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — APLD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ARM_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ARM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ASTS_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ASTS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_AMD_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_FRSH_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — FRSH >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_INTC_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — INTC >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_AVGO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AVGO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AYI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AYI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AZN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AZN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BA_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BFLY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BFLY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BTDR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — BTDR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_BWXT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BWXT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CAT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CAT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CEG_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CEG >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CHE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CHE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CIEN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CIEN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CINF_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CINF >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CSCO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CSCO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_EME_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — EME >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_EPAM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — EPAM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ETN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ETN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_F_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — F >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GLW_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — GLW >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_GM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GOOGL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GOOGL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_HUT_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — HUT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_INFY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — INFY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_IOT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — IOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_IREN_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — IREN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_LEU_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — LEU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_MA_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_META_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — META >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MRNA_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — MRNA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_NEE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NEE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NET_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NET >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NFLX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NFLX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NOW_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NOW >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ANET_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — ANET >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_AMD_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_ACN_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — ACN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_FIX_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — FIX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_CINF_20260507 resolved miss on 2026-05-14 — CINF >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-07✗PMCI_BFLY_20260507 resolved miss on 2026-05-14 — BFLY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-07✗PMCI_BE_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_DVA_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — DVA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_KTOS_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — KTOS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_S_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — S >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_BE_20260512 resolved miss on 2026-05-19 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-12✗PMCI_FORM_20260513 resolved miss on 2026-05-20 — FORM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-13✗PMCI_AMKR_20260513 resolved miss on 2026-05-20 — AMKR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-13✗PMCI_AMD_20260513 resolved miss on 2026-05-20 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-13✗PMCI_QCOM_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_AMD_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_ICHR_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — ICHR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_MU_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_CRWV_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — CRWV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_ETN_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — ETN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_CRWV_20260515 resolved miss on 2026-05-22 — CRWV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✗PMCI_BE_20260515 resolved hit on 2026-05-22 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✓PMCI_LITE_20260518 resolved miss on 2026-05-25 — LITE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✗PMCI_MU_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_BE_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_SLDP_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — SLDP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_QCOM_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_CB_20260601 resolved miss on 2026-06-08 — CB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01✗PMCI_RMBS_20260601 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — RMBS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01✓PMCI_AMPX_20260601 resolved miss on 2026-06-08 — AMPX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01✗231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓229_033 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3✓SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓235_016 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓CMQ_031 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a high✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓SEM_015 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reve✓CMQ_062 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical mas✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_005 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will scale from $70.9M full-year 2025 revenue (guided $150M-$200M for 2026) t✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Census Bureau or Brookings 2026 report on rural-population growth from net-migrationpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Starlink residential subscriber base crosses 10Mpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla FSD V14 unsupervised certification in 5+ states / national rolloutpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Office vacancy / urban CRE distress remains >20% in major US metroscascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Confirmed reversal: rural growth + urban decline visible in 2027 census revisionscascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OASI trust fund exhaustion projection holds at FY2032pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI displacement layoffs cross 100,000 cumulative since 2024cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Brookings/IMF/McKinsey publish AI payroll-tax-base shrinkage estimatecascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal robot/AI tax legislation introduced in Congresscascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — OASI trust fund exhaustion accelerated to <FY2030 in Trustees Reportpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 60% of hiring managers planning AI-driven layoffs in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 30% of companies planning AI-driven layoffs (McKinsey state-of-AI)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-attributed layoffs cross 200K in 2026 single yearcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Meta cuts 10% of workforce (~8,000) starting May 20, 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Big Freeze: 32%+ of companies plan AI-driven headcount reductioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Total 2026 mass layoffs cross 1.5M with AI cited in >10%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: white-collar U-3 unemployment crosses 4.5% by mid-2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — Gemini 3 / Claude Opus 4.7 / GPT-5.5 frontier benchmark releases all within 6 monthspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-14 — SpaceX (now including xAI) IPO road show begins June 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Moonshots podcast publishes >2 episodes per week through Q3 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public sentiment / media usage of 'singularity' language spikes in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Moonshots podcast announces house/studio relocation (Airbnb or shared compound)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Moonshots podcast publishes longer-format / continuous content episodes (4+ hour OR daily cadence)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Co-hosts Salim Ismail and Dave Blundin appear in shared physical setting with Diamandiscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Q3 2026 window check-in: continuous-podcast format establishedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Other Diamandis ventures (Abundance Summit, A360) shift to shared-compound formatcascade #3 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Tech sector AI-attributed job losses cross 75K in H1 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Klarna-style customer service AI replacement scales to 5+ Fortune 1000 companiescascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior developer hiring rate drops >25% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BLS reports AI-attributed unemployment rate uptickcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state UBI or AI displacement tax legislation introducedpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #3 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — SpaceX Starship V3 first flight testpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink V3 deployment using Starship beginscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX achieves 145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Launch-per-hour cadence remains aspirational vs ~1-3 per week realitycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Customer service / call center employment down >15% YoYpre #6 · pending · 2026-06-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX achieves Starship V3 successful orbital flight with booster catchpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pad 2 at Starbase Texas comes online enabling higher cadencepre #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — FAA approves up to 44 Starship-Super Heavy launches annually (already-granted check)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hyperloop / Boring Company tunnel rail competing project public delay or cancellationcascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First Starship point-to-point demonstration mission announcement (cargo only)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Joby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — GCAA or Abu Dhabi DoT issues operating authorization for eVTOL passenger servicecascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First fare-paying eVTOL passenger flight in UAEcascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Uber-app-bookable eVTOL leg goes live in UAEcascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Joby Dubai vertiport at DXB completes construction and FAA/GCAA inspectionpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GCAA / UAE regulator issues commercial operating certificate to Jobycascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First paid passenger flight on Joby Dubai networkcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-16 — Average measured travel-time savings vs ground transport publishedcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Abu Dhabi-specific Joby agreement or first flight (note: Archer is current ADIO partner)cascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX files confidential S-1 with SEC at $2T target valuationpre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-26 — SpaceX 2025 revenue confirms $15.6B baselinepre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — SpaceX S-1 prospectus made publicpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-24 — SpaceX prices IPO and begins tradingcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #6 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Starlink crosses 10M subscribers, tracking $20B revenue in 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files for IPO at $2T+ valuationpre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Starlink monthly net additions reach 1.5M users (2x 2025 pace)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Starlink EBITDA margins exceed 60% confirming profitability scalecascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — SpaceX 2026 total revenue lands $22-30B range (above doubling)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files draft S-1 with SECpre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-08 — SpaceX IPO prices in $1.75T-$2T rangecascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink subscriber count crosses 12Mcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — SpaceX market cap crosses $3T post-IPOcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SECpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-25 — Polymarket SpaceX June IPO odds >=60%pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-08 — SpaceX public S-1 filing in late April / May 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-25 — ARK Invest SpaceX IPO Guide published with $1.75T+ valuation frameworkpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — SpaceX road show begins in June 2026 (10-14 day institutional pitch)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-23 — SpaceX IPO prices and lists on Nasdaqcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-16 — Tesla $2B investment in xAI as Master Plan IV vehiclepre #5 · hit · 2026-01-29 — Bloomberg/Reuters reports Musk weighing SpaceX-Tesla-xAI mega-mergerpre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-03 — SpaceX-xAI merger closed at $1.25T combined valuationpre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — $573M+ web of related-party transactions disclosed in Tesla 10-Kcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla-SpaceX or Tesla-xAI formal merger agreement signedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Starship V3 inaugural flightpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public confirmation of skipped 2026 Mars windowpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Full-scale Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demonstration attemptedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Artemis HLS lunar lander schedule slip announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Updated Mars timeline pushes uncrewed mission to 2028-29 windowpre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk publicly delays Starship Mars launch beyond 2026 transfer windowpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Cumulative orbital propellant transfer of >=100 metric tons demonstrated in single Starship testcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First Starship Block 3 successful flight test (Mars-capable variant)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — November 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window closes without Starship launchcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: SpaceX shifts focus to Artemis 3 lunar mission as primary near-term Starship deploymentcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited layoffs reach 100,000 cumulative through 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — BLS productivity data shows white-collar sector productivity surgecascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — WEF Future of Jobs report quantifies structural displacementcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Junior software developer (0-3 yr exp) job postings on Indeed/LinkedIn rise YoY for 3 consecutive monthscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS JOLTS Information sector job openings rebound above 2024 baselinecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow Developer Survey shows entry-level developer share stabilizing or risingcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Salesforce hires 1,000 new-grad software/AI engineers as Benioff committedcascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve or BLS publishes follow-on study reaffirming AI-not-driving-junior-dev declinecascade #6 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: CS undergrad enrollment growth resumes (>=2% YoY) after 2024-25 dippre #4 · hit · 2026-01-30 — SpaceX FCC filing for up to 1M orbital data-center satellitespre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US state passes new data-center moratorium / restrictive permittingcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FCC grants partial authorization for orbital data-center constellationcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data-center customer contract announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative LEO/SSO compute capacity exceeds 1 MW across constellationscascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Maine data center moratorium passes legislature, vetoed by governorpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-14 — 11+ states introduce data center moratorium bills in 2026pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Local moratoriums spread across municipalitiescascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First operational Dyson swarm prototype or megastructure democascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.pre #6 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Maine House sustains Mills' veto — moratorium dies; thesis premise (statewide moratorium gives time) invalidatedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Maine Data Center Advisory Council established by EO (replaces moratorium pathway)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — SpaceX Starcloud-2 launch with multi-GPU (Blackwell) orbital compute payloadpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-15 — Other state passes data-center moratorium or significant siting restriction (substitution test)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #6 · hit · 2025-08-15 — Varda Series C ($187M) closes — capital for commercial scalepre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Varda W-4 mission in orbit; W-5 expected before end of yearpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Varda begins biologics (monoclonal antibody) crystallization programcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — First commercial pharma drug returned from microgravity demonstrably superiorcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FDA / partner announces clinical pathway for orbital-manufactured pharmapre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk announces Mars 2026 mission deprioritized, delayed 5-7 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Starship orbital refueling demonstration completedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 2026 Mars transfer window (Nov-Dec 2026) closes with zero Starship launchescascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX Starship cumulative successful test flights reach 15+ by end of 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Next viable Mars window targeted by SpaceX shifts to 2028/29pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Gwynne Shotwell publicly states 140-145 Falcon 9 launches target for 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Artemis IV Moon mission targeting 2028 confirmed by Shotwellpre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — SpaceX Falcon 9 H1 2026 launch cadence on track for 70+ launches by mid-yearpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-01 — SpaceX achieves 140 Falcon 9 launches by year-end 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Starship operational for AI satellite mass deployment by 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Frontier lab announces general-knowledge-worker capability claimcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS shows multiple consecutive quarters of white-collar employment declinecascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major consultancy reports AI-driven cost reduction in target functionscascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative knowledge-worker layoffs >250K in 18-month windowcascade #5 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI deprecates SWE-Bench Verified as too contaminatedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — Claude Mythos Preview crosses 90% on SWE-Bench Verifiedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Long-horizon multi-day software-engineering benchmark crossed by Claude/GPTcascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Iterative self-improvement loop demonstrated on coding agentcascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatetarget window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
29 plotted · 36 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to PL.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.