Timeline Fan

1585 of 1585 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Forked into 4 mutually-exclusive AGI branches — each lane shows the claims that hinge on that scenario.

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

315 plotted across 4 branches · 6 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.

AMZN-impacting (4)

CMQ_056

SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV

Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.

82% → 19% · resolves 2026-12

-63pp

235_019

SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV

Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.

65% → 13% · resolves 2027-06

-52pp

CMQ_055

SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV

Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes.

78% → 29% · resolves 2028-09

-49pp

CMQ_053

SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV

Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing.

99% → 55% · resolves 2026-09

-44pp

CRWV-impacting (4)

CYB_024

CRWV · WULF · EQIX · OKLO

The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security...

72% → 17% · resolves 2030-09

-55pp

248_019

TSEM · SKYT · MRCY · RKLB

US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.

65% → 12% · resolves 2026-06

-53pp

CMQ_030

NVDA · ALAB · CRWV · NBIS

In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio).

78% → 34% · resolves 2026-12

-44pp

INF_049

CRWV · NBIS · APLD · IREN

Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon supply — has become the absolute primary bottleneck for AI scalability, and these concentrated power needs cannot be reliably connected to existing public ...

92% → 50% · resolves 2026-11

-42pp

LMT-impacting (2)

COD_SPC_004

LMT · NOC

Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026

95% → 48% · resolves 2026-12

-47pp

COD_SPC_005

LMT · NOC

NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window

70% → 33% · resolves 2028-07

-37pp

GOOGL-impacting (1)

244_019

PONY · AUR · MBLY · AEVA

Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years

92% → 48% · resolves 2028-10

-44pp

Other / no ticker (4)

CYB_005

'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio...

72% → 30% · resolves 2026-08

-42pp

AI_013

'SaaSpocalypse' — traditional Software-as-a-Service incumbents (Salesforce, Adobe, HubSpot) will see massive sustained declines in market capitalization; AI lowers the barrier to creating bespoke customized software, eliminating the SaaS subscription m...

72% → 35% · resolves 2028-09

-37pp

AI_003

AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decade to reach $100 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) into just 12-24 months — an unprecedented monetization velocity.

88% → 52% · resolves 2026-12

-36pp

CYB_019

Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o...

80% → 44% · resolves 2030-08

-36pp

BXP-impacting (1)

AUT_004

BXP · SLG · VNO

Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash headcount while ruthlessly punishing those that retain human-heavy operational structures — transforming AI from productivity tool into an economic surveillance mech...

68% → 30% · resolves 2028-09

-38pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.