0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2032 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2033 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2034 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2035 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2036 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2037 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2038 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2039 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2040 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2041 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2042 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2043 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2044 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2045 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2046 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX/Starlink V3 launch cadence reaches >50 satellites/month pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First commercial orbital data center deployment announced by hyperscaler pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First MW-scale orbital compute payload reaches operational status pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cumulative orbital data center capacity exceeds 100 MW cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — US/Caltech SSPP follow-on commercial demo announced pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — China Geostationary 10 kW SBSP demonstration pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Second sovereign nation announces independent SBSP program pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — First commercial Dyson-swarm-precursor satellite constellation funded cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — China megawatt-scale GEO SBSP demonstration cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-14 — Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starship V3 first orbital Starlink V3 launch pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — 8+ Starship Starlink launches in 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO. pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — SpaceX rideshare/dedicated 3rd-party launch share declines below 15% of Starship cadence pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Competitor (Amazon Kuiper, Eutelsat) experiences launch-vehicle delay attributed to SpaceX capacity allocation cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Google Project Suncatcher prototype satellites launch by early 2027 pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Multi-org orbital data center constellation deployments cross 100 satellites combined pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Starship V3 reaches 100+ ton LEO payload demonstrated capacity pre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Starship V3 enters repeatedly-flying cadence (>=10 flights in 12 months) pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #3 · pending · 2028-11-14 — First Mars uncrewed Starship transit attempt (2028 transfer window) pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First non-NASA private crew booking on Starship lunar/cis-lunar mission cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #4 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · pending · 2032-10-20 — We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token. pre #5 · pending · 2032-10-30 — Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. pre #4 · pending · 2033-06-23 — AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. pre #3 · pending · 2033-07-02 — First lunar mass-driver / electromagnetic launcher prototype publicly demonstrated (terrestrial test article or LEO demo pre #2 · pending · 2033-09-24 — Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. pre #1 · pending · 2036-07-23 — San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. cascade #1 · pending · 2037-07-02 — Permanent lunar settlement crossing 100-person continuous occupancy threshold pre #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #5 · pending · 2029-06-08 — Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own. pre #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). pre #3 · pending · 2030-06-18 — Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. pre #2 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. pre #1 · pending · 2031-05-18 — Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030 cascade #1 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-05 — AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterpris pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-14 — Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Amazon Leo crosses 500 satellites in orbit pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Amazon Leo commercial consumer service launches (mid-2026 target) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Starlink + Amazon Leo together hold >85% of LEO broadband subscribers (duopoly) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). pre #6 · hit · 2024-11-01 — Smithsonian + frontier research consensus: Mars colony food likely lab-grown meat / cell-cultured / plant-based, not liv pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — SpaceX 2026/27 Mars cargo window — uncrewed Starship Mars cargo attempt pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — International space-law / planetary-protection guidance bans live-animal foodstock transit cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — SpaceX / NASA 2028/29 expanded launch window — manifest disclosure pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind) announce reduced power-projection scenarios pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Triplet-superconductor / zero-loss compute breakthrough demonstrated at scale pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Starcloud / Lockheed Starshield orbital data-center constellation reaches construction milestone pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Wissner-Gross / Bezos / Musk public revision of moon-disassembly thesis cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Fusion or thorium SMR power-density breakthrough commercially announced pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC (early April 2026) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX targets $1.75T-$2T valuation; $75B raise cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — SpaceX road show begins June 8, 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. cascade #3 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. cascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-15 — SpaceX prices and lists shares; first-day open vs offer price cascade #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Largest IPO in history: SpaceX raises >$50B cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #6 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. pre #5 · pending · 2030-06-21 — Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive. pre #4 · pending · 2032-03-16 — First habitable element delivered to lunar surface (US or China) pre #3 · pending · 2032-10-20 — We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token. pre #2 · pending · 2034-07-02 — First continuous human presence (>=28 days uninterrupted) at NASA Artemis Base Camp pre #1 · pending · 2035-09-16 — China ILRS basic facility completed at lunar south pole (Phase 1 milestone) cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #2 · pending · 2039-07-02 — Permanent lunar base milestone: continuous multi-year human presence achieved pre #6 · pending · 2030-10-31 — First Starship crewed Mars mission departs Earth (Musk-stated 2029-31 window) pre #5 · pending · 2031-01-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay pre #4 · pending · 2032-09-15 — First humans land alive on Martian surface pre #3 · pending · 2032-10-20 — We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token. pre #2 · pending · 2032-10-30 — Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. pre #1 · pending · 2033-06-23 — AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. cascade #2 · pending · 2040-09-15 — Self-sustaining colony milestone — >=100 humans continuously on Mars pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefu pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First crewed lunar surface landing (Artemis III or competitor) pre #3 · pending · 2032-01-01 — First sustained lunar surface infrastructure (>=2 weeks continuous human presence) pre #2 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First electromagnetic mass-driver / launch system test on Earth at full lunar-equivalent geometry pre #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #1 · pending · 2036-11-30 — First operational mass driver delivered or assembled on lunar surface cascade #2 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #3 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — SpaceX Starship V3 first flight test pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink V3 deployment using Starship begins cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX achieves 145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Launch-per-hour cadence remains aspirational vs ~1-3 per week reality cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-14 — Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Starship reaches 1 launch per week sustained from any single pad pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — FAA or LC-39A approves >100 Starship launches per year licensure pre #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Starship V4 with hourly-launch ambition unveiled pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Aggregate Starship launches exceed 100 in calendar year cascade #1 · pending · 2030-08-12 — Single launch every 5.3 minutes (274/day) achieved cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Google Project Suncatcher launches first 2 prototype TPU satellites pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starcloud closes Series B / IPO at $3B+ valuation pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — FCC approves first dedicated orbital-DC license / spectrum allocation pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First multi-satellite orbital compute cluster (≥10 nodes) demonstrated cascade #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — MISS confirmation: zero Dyson swarms by Wissner-Gross window end cascade #2 · pending · 2040-07-01 — Self-replicating space manufacturing demo (key Dyson swarm prerequisite) cascade #3 · pending · 2075-07-02 — First partial Dyson swarm satellite launched (single-satellite proof) pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Long March 10 first uncrewed orbital flight test pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Lanyue lander integrated landing/takeoff test completed pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Robotic Mengzhou-Lanyue uncrewed lunar dress rehearsal pre #2 · pending · 2029-09-30 — China names two-astronaut crew for lunar mission pre #1 · pending · 2030-07-16 — Crewed Mengzhou launch on Long March 10 toward Moon cascade #1 · pending · 2031-05-02 — If landing succeeds: ILRS basic-station construction roadmap activated cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window pre #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — SpaceX uncrewed Starship lunar landing demonstration (HLS rehearsal) pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Artemis III lunar-orbit rendezvous test (no crewed landing) revised mission profile pre #3 · pending · 2028-08-20 — Artemis IV crewed lunar landing (first since Apollo) launches pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — First sustained 2-person lunar surface stay >=14 days cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #4 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data center on-orbit and operational (Lumen Orbit prototype) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — SpaceX Starthink AI V1 70-140 kW satellites launched pre #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Rocket equation barrier (mass-to-orbit cost) limits compute density rationality pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Space-based solar power demonstration delivers >=1 MW to terrestrial grid cascade #1 · pending · 2031-03-17 — Orbital compute capacity exceeds 100 MW aggregate cascade #2 · pending · 2033-03-16 — First gigawatt-scale orbital constellation operational (Dyson swarm phase 1) cascade #3 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-31 — RS-25 engines ship from Stennis to KSC for Artemis III core stage integration pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-09 — SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Artemis III SLS core stage fully integrated in VAB pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Starship HLS or Blue Moon flight-ready demonstrator on orbit cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Artemis 3 launches in 2027 target window cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-05 — Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-09 — SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — NASA Artemis II crewed mission completes lunar flyby pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon completes uncrewed lunar landing demonstration pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO. pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Lunar Gateway PPE/HALO modules launched and operational pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Artemis IV crewed launch occurs cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #4 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #5 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Starship V3 inaugural flight pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public confirmation of skipped 2026 Mars window pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Full-scale Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demonstration attempted cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Artemis HLS lunar lander schedule slip announcement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Updated Mars timeline pushes uncrewed mission to 2028-29 window pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk publicly delays Starship Mars launch beyond 2026 transfer window pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Cumulative orbital propellant transfer of >=100 metric tons demonstrated in single Starship test cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First Starship Block 3 successful flight test (Mars-capable variant) cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — November 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window closes without Starship launch cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: SpaceX shifts focus to Artemis 3 lunar mission as primary near-term Starship deployment cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Blue Moon Mk1 robotic lunar lander successful landing on Moon's south pole pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Blue Origin wins or solidifies NASA HLS / Artemis lunar contract continuation pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Industry analyst (Payload, ArsTechnica, SpaceNews) declares Blue Origin first-tier moon-mission competitor pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Blue Origin launches >=8 New Glenn missions in calendar year cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — Cascade: Blue Origin Mk2 crewed Blue Moon vehicle ready for Artemis-class mission pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-14 — Apple announces Amazon Globalstar / Project Kuiper as iPhone satellite vendor pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Apple satellite revenue line item appears separately in 10-Q pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — iPhone formally adds SpaceX Starlink as second-vendor option pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Direct-to-device satellite cellular displaces terrestrial backup for emergency / SOS cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First operational V3 Starlink batch on Starship pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Starship reaches sustained 3-launches-per-week cadence pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Cumulative V3 Starlink deployment crosses 5,000 satellites cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — 40,000 V3 Starlink constellation reaches operational status cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #5 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. cascade #6 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-30 — SpaceX FCC filing for up to 1M orbital data-center satellites pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US state passes new data-center moratorium / restrictive permitting cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FCC grants partial authorization for orbital data-center constellation cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data-center customer contract announced cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative LEO/SSO compute capacity exceeds 1 MW across constellations cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. pre #6 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Maine House sustains Mills' veto — moratorium dies; thesis premise (statewide moratorium gives time) invalidated pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Maine Data Center Advisory Council established by EO (replaces moratorium pathway) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — SpaceX Starcloud-2 launch with multi-GPU (Blackwell) orbital compute payload pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-15 — Other state passes data-center moratorium or significant siting restriction (substitution test) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-27 — NASA Administrator confirms Artemis III pivots from lunar landing to Earth-orbit HLS/EVA test pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Axiom AxEMU spacesuit test flight readiness review completed pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX Starship HLS uncrewed orbital demonstration completed pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Artemis III launches as Earth-orbit HLS/AxEMU rendezvous test mission (no lunar landing) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Artemis IV designated as first crewed lunar landing mission (2028) pre #6 · pending · 2027-07-02 — SpaceX Starship HLS uncrewed lunar demo lands successfully pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-30 — SLS Block 1B with Exploration Upper Stage completes Green Run pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-04-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — NASA confirms Artemis IV launch date within 90 days of T-0 pre #1 · pending · 2028-05-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — NASA Commercial LEO Destinations Phase 2 awards finalized — AI required as evaluated capability pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Vast Haven-1 single-module station launches with onboard AI life-support / health diagnostics pre #4 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Axiom Station first module launches and integrates with ISS (precursor to free-flyer) pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2029-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Resident-AI system officially declared 'mission-critical' on commercial station operations dashboard pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk announces Mars 2026 mission deprioritized, delayed 5-7 years pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Starship orbital refueling demonstration completed cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 2026 Mars transfer window (Nov-Dec 2026) closes with zero Starship launches cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX Starship cumulative successful test flights reach 15+ by end of 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Next viable Mars window targeted by SpaceX shifts to 2028/29 pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Gwynne Shotwell publicly states 140-145 Falcon 9 launches target for 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Artemis IV Moon mission targeting 2028 confirmed by Shotwell pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — SpaceX Falcon 9 H1 2026 launch cadence on track for 70+ launches by mid-year pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-01 — SpaceX achieves 140 Falcon 9 launches by year-end 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Starship operational for AI satellite mass deployment by 2027 pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Blue Moon MK1 cargo soft-lands near Shackleton Crater pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Blue Origin lands Shackleton cargo BEFORE SpaceX (Diamandis prediction holds) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — SpaceX Starship lunar lander HLS demo flight (Artemis III prep) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Artemis III crewed lunar landing mission executes (originally NET 2026, now slipping) pre #5 · pending · 2030-05-02 — Cascade: Uncrewed Starship Mars cargo mission launches in 2028 or 2031 transfer window pre #4 · pending · 2031-01-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay pre #3 · pending · 2034-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2034-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2034-06-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — SpaceX Starship V3 reaches stable Earth orbit (precondition for tanker demo) pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — First two-Starship orbital propellant transfer demonstration: target + chaser docking pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Multi-tanker depot architecture demonstrated (≥3 sequential propellant fills) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — NASA Artemis HLS depot operations declared 'mission-ready' (10-tanker architecture) pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Commercial astronaut mission cadence reaches ≥4/year pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — SpaceX Starship uncrewed lunar demo completes pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First inter-operator autonomous collision-avoidance handshake protocol published pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Operational LEO satellite count crosses 12,000 pre #4 · pending · 2027-10-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First AI-flagged pre-failure satellite hardware anomaly publicly disclosed pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Major collision event triggers regulatory mandate for autonomous CA pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-13 — Planet announces Owl constellation with NVIDIA GPUs onboard for AI tip-and-cue pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First commercial EO constellation announces 'downlink only insights' policy pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Major EO customer (defense or commercial) signs >$100M contract for insight-only product pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Terran R first-stage Aeon R engine static-fire tests complete pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Terran R maiden orbital launch attempt pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Relativity demonstrates AI/ML+robotics print-rate or part-count milestone pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 41 plotted · 1 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.