Timeline Fan

358 of 358 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Forked into 4 mutually-exclusive AGI branches — each lane shows the claims that hinge on that scenario.

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

220 plotted across 4 branches · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.

Other / no ticker (4)

CYB_005

'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio...

72% → 30% · resolves 2026-08

-42pp

INF_043

Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models.

82% → 47% · resolves 2031-10

-35pp

CYB_012

'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di...

78% → 44% · resolves 2029-08

-34pp

CMQ_057

Democratization of sophisticated AI tools means any 'kid in a basement' can now build world-changing applications via API access to frontier models.

85% → 56% · resolves 2026-08

-29pp

CRWV-impacting (4)

248_037

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.

50% → 10% · resolves 2026-06

-40pp

232_055

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.

70% → 35% · resolves 2028-06

-35pp

247_023

AAPL · ACN · ALAB · AMT

AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently

72% → 41% · resolves 2027-06

-31pp

231_013

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.

62% → 35% · resolves 2027-06

-27pp

IBM-impacting (4)

CMQ_004

AI · AMZN · BABA · BBAI

AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.

60% → 28% · resolves 2027-11

-32pp

241_043

ACN · AI · AMZN · BABA

ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade

65% → 36% · resolves 2035-10

-29pp

CMQ_001

AI · AMZN · BABA · BBAI

By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks.

72% → 45% · resolves 2026-09

-27pp

CMQ_002

AI · ALL · AMZN · BABA

By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.

55% → 31% · resolves 2028-10

-24pp

AMZN-impacting (1)

237_026

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.

60% → 31% · resolves 2026-06

-29pp

GOOGL-impacting (2)

SPC_022

BABA · FROG · GOOGL · GTLB

'2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c...

62% → 41% · resolves 2026-09

-21pp

COD_AI_004

ACN · AMZN · CTSH · EPAM

Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027

55% → 36% · resolves 2027-12

-19pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.