Predictions

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ID	Domain	Topic	Title	Predictor	Conv	SQ	Prior	Status	Window
240_008	Geopolitics	NVIDIA	NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months	Alex Wissner-Gross	3/5	C	45.0%	pending	2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
240_030	Geopolitics	AGI	Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion o…	Alex Wissner-Gross	3/5	C	45.0%	pending	2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30
240_045	Geopolitics	AI-timing	White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (r…	Alex Wissner-Gross	3/5	C	45.0%	pending	2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31
234_037	Geopolitics	AI-timing	Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years	Alex Wissner-Gross	4/5	B	50.0%	pending	2027-01-01 – 2028-10-31
230_032	Geopolitics	AI-timing	Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking…	Alex Wissner-Gross	3/5	C	45.0%	pending	2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
246_020	Geopolitics	orbital-AI	China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).	Alex Wissner-Gross	4/5	B	50.0%	pending	2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31
238_069	Geopolitics	AI-timing	The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive na…	Alex Wissner-Gross	3/5	C	45.0%	pending	— – —
247_014	Geopolitics	AI-timing	Politicization of AI could have been delayed by at least 2 years	Alex Wissner-Gross	2/5	C	40.0%	pending	— – —