Predictions

9 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.

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IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
INF_008AIIQ-growth-rateLeading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5C45.0%partial2024-01-01 – 2026-11-30
SEM_002AIAI-scalingBy 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of col…Leopold Aschenbrenner4/5A75.0%partial2025-01-01 – 2026-09-30
CYB_003AIautonomous-agent-societiesLocalized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their …Alex Finn4/5C62.0%partial2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
INF_030AISMB-democratizationBy 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabiliti…Dario Amodei4/5A75.0%partial2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
INF_031AIAI-company-riskThe biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting w…Dario Amodei5/5A70.0%partial2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31
INF_036AIkinetic-edge-AIAI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous veh…Dara Khosrowshahi4/5C65.0%partial2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31
236_033AIAI-timingPie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hoursAndrew Yang5/5B72.0%partial2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31
238_020AIAI-timingMath field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5B72.0%partial2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
247_023AIAI-scalingAI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyDave Blundin5/5B72.0%partial2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30