Predictions

9 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.

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IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
CMQ_014AI/Computephysical-computePhysical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, dri…Leopold Aschenbrenner5/5A70.0%in_progress2024-01-01 – 2027-12-31
CMQ_031AI/Computepost-MooreAI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5A70.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31
CMQ_023AI/Computetokens-economyTokens are the new raw material — data centers are no longer cost centers but…Jensen Huang5/5A85.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_024AI/Computetokens-per-watt'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the mod…Jensen Huang5/5A80.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_025AI/ComputeDC-replacementThe entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and repla…Jensen Huang5/5A78.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2032-12-31
CMQ_030AI/ComputeCPU-resurgenceIn the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it d…Jensen Huang5/5A78.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_042AI/ComputeCPU-bottleneck-shiftAs AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks sh…Morgan Stanley5/5A72.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_056AI/Computeedge-SLMSmall Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques wi…Dario Amodei4/5A82.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_058AI/Computelocal-computeLocalized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300'…Alex Finn4/5B80.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31