CMI
Asupersededcore_longrecommended 2026-05-04 · source §7.2Research-mode rules
| Research status | considering |
|---|---|
| Analysis batch | 2026-05-04-launch |
Instrument & sizing
| Instrument type | leaps_call |
|---|---|
| Strike | $680 |
| Expiration | 2027-01-15 |
| Polygon symbol | O:CMI270115C00680000 |
| Recommended quantity | 0.289 |
| Recommended dollar amount | $1,500 |
| Recommended entry price | $52.00 |
| Spot at recommendation | $657.47 |
| OTM% | 3.5% |
| IV at recommendation | 0.40 |
| Delta at recommendation | 0.50 |
Thesis summary
Cummins Power Systems backlog into 2028. 2026 capex $1.35-1.45B for high-horsepower engine capacity. 10 tweets/day = under-the-radar for $90B mcap. Truck cycle softness more than offset by AI backup-power demand.
Linked predictions (2)
| Prediction | Role | P (current) | P (prior) | Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US electricity production must grow by 'tens of percent' by end of decade to support hundreds of millions of frontier-AI GPUs. CMQ_017 · Energy | primary_thesis | 0.519 | 0.750 | 2026-11-30 | in_progress |
| Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. INF_011 · Macro/Economy | supporting | 0.923 | 0.880 | 2026-12-31 | in_progress |
Upcoming catalysts (1 of 1)
| Date | Type | Description | Expected impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-15 | expiration | CMI option expiration | volatility_only | upcoming |
Update history (1)
Most recent first.
| Updated at | Type | Source | Drift / shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 22:11Z | thesis_weakened | cron | spot +2.6%thesis Δ-17.9pp |
Actions
Recommendation is superseded; further actions handled via the position detail page.
Status: superseded