LRCX
Asupersededcore_longrecommended 2026-05-04 · source §5.1, §10Research-mode rules
| Research status | considering |
|---|---|
| Analysis batch | 2026-05-04-launch |
Instrument & sizing
| Instrument type | leaps_call |
|---|---|
| Strike | $320 |
| Expiration | 2027-01-15 |
| Polygon symbol | O:LRCX270115C00320000 |
| Recommended quantity | 0.442 |
| Recommended dollar amount | $1,500 |
| Recommended entry price | $33.97 |
| Spot at recommendation | $255.44 |
| OTM% | 25.3% |
| IV at recommendation | 0.60 |
| Delta at recommendation | 0.44 |
Thesis summary
Lam Research: HBM tools revenue +50% YoY, advanced packaging +40% in FY2026. Direct HBM4 ramp leverage.
Linked predictions (3)
| Prediction | Role | P (current) | P (prior) | Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. CMQ_034 · Semis/Memory | primary_thesis | 0.839 | 0.850 | 2027-12-31 | in_progress |
| TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/month by 2026 to meet baseline demand from NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscaler ASICs. CMQ_039 · Semis/Packaging | supporting | 0.709 | 0.800 | 2026-12-31 | pending |
| Global HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute critical resource constraint in the AI compute supply chain. CMQ_033 · Semis/Memory | supporting | 0.751 | 0.820 | 2026-12-31 | pending |
Upcoming catalysts (1 of 1)
| Date | Type | Description | Expected impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-15 | expiration | LRCX option expiration | volatility_only | upcoming |
Update history (1)
Most recent first.
| Updated at | Type | Source | Drift / shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 22:11Z | thesis_weakened | cron | spot +8.0%thesis Δ-6.4pp |
Actions
Recommendation is superseded; further actions handled via the position detail page.
Status: superseded