AVGO

Ssupersededcore_longrecommended 2026-05-04 · source §9 #3, §10 §11.1

Research-mode rules

Research status	considering
Analysis batch	2026-05-04-launch

Instrument & sizing

Instrument type	leaps_call
Strike	$520
Expiration	2027-01-15
Polygon symbol	`O:AVGO270115C00520000`
Recommended quantity	1.067
Recommended dollar amount	$4,000
Recommended entry price	$37.50
Spot at recommendation	$413.27
OTM%	25.9%
IV at recommendation	0.48
Delta at recommendation	0.37

Thesis summary

AVGO custom silicon $40B → $100B AI revenue trajectory. Q1 FY2026 AI revenue $8.4B (+106% YoY); Q2 guide $10.7B (+140%). CEO has 'clear line of sight' to $100B annual AI chip revenue by late 2027/early 2028. Anthropic alone: 1 GW (2026) → 3 GW (2027). Meta MTIA 1 GW in 2027 = $12-15B opportunity.

Linked predictions (3)

Prediction	Role	P (current)	P (prior)	Window	Status
Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. SEM_028 · Capital Markets	primary_thesis	0.605	0.750	2026-12-31	in_progress
Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. INF_011 · Macro/Economy	supporting	0.923	0.880	2026-12-31	in_progress
Tokens are the new raw material — data centers are no longer cost centers but active 'AI factories' that consume electricity and data to manufacture tokens. CMQ_023 · AI/Compute	supporting	0.649	0.850	2026-12-31	in_progress

Upcoming catalysts (1 of 1)

Date	Type	Description	Expected impact	Status
2027-01-15	expiration	AVGO option expiration	volatility_only	upcoming

Update history (1)

Most recent first.

Updated at	Type	Source	Drift / shift
2026-05-05 22:11Z	thesis_weakened	cron	spot +3.4%thesis Δ-16.4pp

Actions

Recommendation is superseded; further actions handled via the position detail page.

Status: superseded