Timeline Fan

34 of 34 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPOAGIAI pauseASIMars uncrewedRecessionCompute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)
Tradeable only
Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)
Window
next 12 monext 24 monext 5 yr (default)5y + tail
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Resolved
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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100historyPMCI_FSLR_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — FSLR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_FTNT_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — FTNT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_CDNS_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — CDNS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐PMCI_MKSI_20260518 resolved miss on 2026-05-25 — MKSI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✗230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓PMCI_ENVX_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — ENVX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_QCOM_20260515 resolved hit on 2026-05-22 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✓PMCI_MU_20260515 resolved miss on 2026-05-22 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✗PMCI_RRX_20260519 resolved hit on 2026-05-26 — RRX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-19✓239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐PMCI_SNOW_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SNOW >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓PMCI_NVDA_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — NVDA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_TSLA_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — TSLA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_AGX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AGX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ALAB_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ALAB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ASML_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ASML >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CB_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_COHR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — COHR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CORZ_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — CORZ >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CRM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CRM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CRWD_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — CRWD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CRWV_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CRWV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GEV_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GEV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗PMCI_FERG_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — FERG >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_FIX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — FIX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GEHC_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GEHC >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GFS_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GFS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_LITE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — LITE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_LMB_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — LMB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗PMCI_LRCX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — LRCX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_LUNR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — LUNR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_MRVL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MRVL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MSFT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MSFT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MTSI_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — MTSI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_MU_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_NVO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NVO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NXPI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NXPI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_OKLO_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — OKLO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ORCL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ORCL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RTX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RTX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RUN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RUN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_PLTR_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — PLTR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_PYPL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — PYPL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_QCOM_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_QLYS_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — QLYS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RBRK_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RBRK >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RIOT_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — RIOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_RIVN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RIVN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SAP_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SAP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TRU_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TRU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RKLB_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — RKLB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_RLAY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RLAY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ROOT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ROOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TXN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TXN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SYM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SYM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_T_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — T >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SERV_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SERV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TEM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TEM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TSEM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TSEM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TSM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TSM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_XIACY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — XIACY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_VRT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — VRT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AAPL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AAPL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_V_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — V >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_XYL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — XYL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TMUS_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TMUS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CIFR_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CIFR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SIEGY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SIEGY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SPOT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SPOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SMMNY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SMMNY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SBGSY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SBGSY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_XOM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — XOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RYCEY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RYCEY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_VZ_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — VZ >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BRK.B_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BRK.B >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BYDDY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BYDDY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_UBER_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — UBER >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_EADSY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — EADSY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_WDAY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — WDAY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓PMCI_VST_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — VST >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SHOP_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SHOP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ABT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ABT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ACLS_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ACLS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ACN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ACN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MCHP_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MCHP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ADBE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ADBE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ADI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ADI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AEHR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — AEHR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ALL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ALL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AMAT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AMAT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AMT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AMT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MDT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MDT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MLI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MLI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AMZN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AMZN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ANET_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ANET >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_APLD_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — APLD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ARM_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ARM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ASTS_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ASTS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_AMD_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_FRSH_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — FRSH >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_INTC_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — INTC >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_AVGO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AVGO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AYI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AYI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AZN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AZN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BA_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BFLY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BFLY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BTDR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — BTDR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_BWXT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BWXT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CAT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CAT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CEG_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CEG >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CHE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CHE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CIEN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CIEN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CINF_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CINF >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CSCO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CSCO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_EME_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — EME >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_EPAM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — EPAM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ETN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ETN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_F_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — F >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GLW_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — GLW >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_GM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GOOGL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GOOGL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_HUT_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — HUT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_INFY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — INFY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_IOT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — IOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_IREN_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — IREN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_LEU_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — LEU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_MA_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_META_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — META >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MRNA_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — MRNA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_NEE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NEE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NET_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NET >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NFLX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NFLX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NOW_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NOW >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ANET_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — ANET >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_AMD_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_ACN_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — ACN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_FIX_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — FIX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_CINF_20260507 resolved miss on 2026-05-14 — CINF >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-07✗PMCI_BFLY_20260507 resolved miss on 2026-05-14 — BFLY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-07✗PMCI_BE_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_DVA_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — DVA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_KTOS_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — KTOS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_S_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — S >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_BE_20260512 resolved miss on 2026-05-19 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-12✗PMCI_FORM_20260513 resolved miss on 2026-05-20 — FORM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-13✗PMCI_AMKR_20260513 resolved miss on 2026-05-20 — AMKR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-13✗PMCI_AMD_20260513 resolved miss on 2026-05-20 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-13✗PMCI_QCOM_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_AMD_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_ICHR_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — ICHR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_MU_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_CRWV_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — CRWV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_ETN_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — ETN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_CRWV_20260515 resolved miss on 2026-05-22 — CRWV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✗PMCI_BE_20260515 resolved hit on 2026-05-22 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✓PMCI_LITE_20260518 resolved miss on 2026-05-25 — LITE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✗PMCI_MU_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_BE_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_SLDP_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — SLDP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_QCOM_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_CB_20260601 resolved miss on 2026-06-08 — CB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01✗PMCI_RMBS_20260601 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — RMBS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01✓PMCI_AMPX_20260601 resolved miss on 2026-06-08 — AMPX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01✗231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓229_033 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3✓SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓235_016 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓CMQ_031 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a high✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓SEM_015 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reve✓CMQ_062 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical mas✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_005 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will scale from $70.9M full-year 2025 revenue (guided $150M-$200M for 2026) t✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour cadence (24x throughput vs January)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100,000 units globallypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Humanoid unit price falls below $30K (SUV-equivalent threshold)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Humanoid robot sector annual revenue crosses $10B (still <0.05% of $50T claim)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-08-31 — Humanoid TAM addressable wages reach $1T annual run-rate (revenue capture stage)pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-16 — CBO or major IB upgrades 2030 GDP path by >=20% citing AI/automationpre #5 · pending · 2028-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Productivity growth (BLS nonfarm) breaks above 4.0% YoYpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — G20 official statement names AI/robotics as primary driver of GDP outperformancepre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Tesla bot or Optimus generates >$10B in segment revenue annualizedpre #1 · pending · 2029-02-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #2 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #5 · hit · 2025-06-30 — Zendesk fully-resolved-ticket pricing model in marketpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-14 — HubSpot Breeze AI shifts to outcome-based pricingpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 40% of enterprise applications feature AI agentspre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Hybrid usage+outcome pricing reaches 60% of SaaS vendorspre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Major professional services firm shifts billable-hour model to outcome pricingpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Ireland announces BIA pilot extension and expansion to 2,000-2,200 artists for 2026-2029pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Ireland publishes final third-year evaluation showing aggregate benefit-cost ratiopre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Second non-Irish jurisdiction adopts arts-specific UBI pilot citing Irelandpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Ireland BIA scheme made permanent or made universal within Irelandpre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Comparable peacetime work-creation scheme expanded beyond arts in any G20 countrypre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US AI-attributed layoffs cross 500K cumulativepre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First clear sectoral AI-driven employment decline (legal, software, customer service)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 6% during initial AI-displacement wavepre #2 · pending · 2028-08-30 — No single month sees >500K AI-attributed layoffs (no shock event)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cumulative AI-attributed displacement reaches 5M jobs without unemployment spike >7%pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Annual US GDP growth crosses 5% for first time since pandemic (vs ~2-3% baseline)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Global GDP growth crosses 5% (well above 3% trend)pre #3 · pending · 2028-11-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Productivity (TFP) growth in US rises to >= 3% annually (vs ~1% historical)pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Single year shows >= 10% real GDP growth in any G20 economy primarily attributed to AIcascade #1 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Triple-digit (>= 100%) annual GDP growth at country or global level (Horowitz claim)cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #3 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — a16z 2026 Big Ideas explicitly identifies AI agents + on-chain finance as central themepre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Stablecoin transaction volume crosses $50T annualized run-ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — x402 / KYA / agent-payment standard sees major-protocol adoptionpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI agent on-chain transaction volume crosses $1B/monthpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Public AI-economy thesis adopted by mainstream Wall Street equity researchpre #5 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI inference cost falls >=900x per million tokens since 2023pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Top economist publicly cites Jevons Paradox to explain AI labor expansionpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — AI capex spend approaches $650-725B in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI inference industry spend exceeds $50B in 2026 (Jevons rebound)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — BEA productivity statistics show >=2% annualized labor productivity growth sustained 6+ quarterspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 US real GDP grows at 2.0% annual ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Q4 2026 BEA release confirms nominal GDP per capita >=$88,000pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Real GDP per capita growth runs >=1.5% annual through 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Nominal GDP per capita crosses $100,000pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly-announced billionaire-funded regional cash-transfer program in their home metro (>=$50M committed, >=10,0pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Yang/Humanity Forward expands philanthropic UBI footprint past Hudson/Denver pilots into >=5 new citiespre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — At least three additional billionaire-backed local UBI/GBI programs announced in same year as the firstpre #3 · pending · 2028-01-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Federal/state legislator cites billionaire-backed regional UBI as model in introduced legislationpre #1 · pending · 2028-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US CPI peaks at >=5% YoY before sustained decline below 2%pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal UBI/cash-transfer enacted at scale >=$500B/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Money-supply growth (M2) acceleration >=10% YoYpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-driven goods deflation observable in tradable goods CPI subcomponentpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Robotics-driven labor cost decline: humanoid+industrial robot deployment >=500K units cumulative USpre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First major economist publishes AI-driven hyperinflation frameworkpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US M2 / debt monetization signal — fiscal dominance proxypre #4 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation — opposite outcome (negation watch)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — US headline CPI exceeds 8% sustained for 12+ monthspre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — We are currently in AI hard takeoffpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-03 — 2026 midterm elections produce divided Congress unable to pass major fiscal legislationpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — State-level UBI expansion: 3+ states adopt permanent guaranteed-income programs >$500/mopre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Federal Reserve or CBO publish formal AI-displacement scenario in macro projectionspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-displacement unemployment crosses 5.5% nationally before 2028 electionpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — At least one major-party 2028 candidate runs explicitly on UBI/cash-transfer platformcascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #2 · hit · 2026-01-31 — St. Louis Fed AI-contribution-to-GDP nowcast Jan 2026pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — BEA real GDP per capita Q1 2026 printscascade #1 · hit · 2026-01-26 — AI-related capex categories rank top-2 driver of US GDP growth in any quartercascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — US nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000 in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Productivity growth (nonfarm business output/hour) >2% YoY for 2026 sustainedpre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Pincus/Donovan publicly announces wealth-pod structurepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First annual disbursement to 44 recipients (4% cash + 1% expansion pool)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Pod publishes baseline wellbeing/income measurement of 44 recipientscascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First-year recipient outcomes publicly reportedcascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Expansion pool funds second podcascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Tesla CEO public statement that money is becoming less relevantpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government formally proposes UBI / AI dividend pilotcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — AI white-collar displacement crosses measurable threshold (BLS or McKinsey data)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Public AI-dividend / token tax legislative proposal in US Congresspre #5 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First public claim by major economist or central banker that AI is meaningfully shifting the long-run growth trajectorypre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Macro literature publishes formal critique of 1000x economy thesispre #1 · pending · 2027-07-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — AI-driven productivity growth shows up in advanced-economy TFP statistics (sustained >2% TFP growth for 3 consecutive yecascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Energy-output decoupling milestone: global TWh growth keeps pace with GDP without proportional emissionscascade #3 · pending · 2031-01-01 — Cascade: post-scarcity policy frameworks debated in G7 / G20cascade #4 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Global nominal GDP doubles vs 2024 baseline (2024 nominal world GDP ~$110T → ~$220T)pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — AI capex contributes 1.1% to GDP growth in H1 2025 baselinepre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Data center construction hits $40B annual rate (June 2025 baseline)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 AI investments drive 75% of GDP increasepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — 2026 hyperscaler AI capex reaches $700B (~doubles 2025)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global data center capex CAGR confirms 21% trajectory toward $1.2T by 2029cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Construction subsegment 'data center' formally separated from 'office' in BEA datacascade #4 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #5 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).pre #6 · hit · 2025-09-10 — Perseverance Jezero biosignature reported as potentially biologicalpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-21 — Curiosity rover detects 20+ organic molecules at Glen Torridonpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Astrobiology paper confirms cosmic-ray-driven habitability for Mars/Europa/Enceladuspre #3 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Mars Sample Return mission launchescascade #2 · pending · 2030-08-16 — Europa Clipper begins science phase at Jupiterpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First gigawatt-scale AI-purpose-built datacenter campus operationalpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First nuclear reactor restart explicitly contracted for AI datacenter (Three Mile Island/Microsoft style)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-recommended industrial process redesign deployed at Fortune 500 plant scalepre #1 · pending · 2027-11-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US electricity production grows >10% YoY explicitly tied to AI demandpre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — We are currently in AI hard takeoffpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First US AI-displacement legislative bill formally introduced in Congresspre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First state-level AI displacement payment program enactedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — BLS or independent labor research confirms >100K AI-displacement layoffs in single quarterpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-16 — US unemployment rate exceeds 6% with non-cyclical characterizationpre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Federal stimulus check or transfer program enacted >=$1,000 per adultcascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — AI-tax or compute-tax framework adopted federally to fund transferscascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First major developed economy reports negative working-age-population growth >2 yrspre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Inflation persistence above Fed 2% target driven by labor scarcity (not energy / supply)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — US labor-force participation rate falls below 60% (from 62.5%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-04-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-16 — US Inflation Reduction Act + critical-mineral domestic content rules drive >=$100B onshore capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — China non-pumped storage capacity exceeds 300 GW (energy-island anchor)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Saudi Arabia / Australia announce solar-anchor industrial export PPA at sub-2c/kWhpre #1 · pending · 2029-01-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Cascade: nation lacking energy-island stack experiences industrial output contraction >=10%pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data center occupancy peaks ~95% late 2026, moderates starting 2027pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Blackwell/Rubin GPU spot prices fall >30% from 2026 peak ASPpre #3 · pending · 2029-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — First major US power-PPA gets renegotiated downward by hyperscalerpre #1 · pending · 2030-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · overdue · 2025-04-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-07-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · hit · 2025-11-12 — WSJ confirms OpenAI 2025 financial loss disclosurecascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI ARR crosses $25B thresholdcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — OpenAI 2026 financial disclosure shows ~$14B+ lossescascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI Stargate $500B partnership delivers first 10GW phasecascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #6 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Wilson confirms AI productivity diffusion thesis in 2026 US Outlook podcastpre #5 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-03 — S&P 500 EPS revisions trend upward to ~17% growth consensuspre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Operating margin expansion observed in non-megacap S&P sectorspre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Multiple-expansion surprise materializes in 2026 H2cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — S&P 500 closes 2026 within 5% of 7,800 target (i.e., 7,400-8,200 range)cascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.pre #4 · hit · 2025-12-01 — OpenAI Frontier Alliance launches with McKinsey/BCG/Accenture/Capgeminipre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — McKinsey survey shows >20% of organizations have scaled AI agentscascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Named F500 announces AI-native operating-model transformationcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BCG reports >40% of companies successfully scaled AI to deliver business valuecascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — F500 average AI-related headcount restructuring announced (cascade)cascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-11 — Lovable reports $400M ARR with 146 employees ($2.77M ARR/FTE)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SaaStr / industry consensus: $500K ARR/employee is the new $200K benchmarkpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Cursor reaches $2B ARR (~$13.3M ARR/employee)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First public AI-native unicorn ($1B+ valuation) with <=10 FTEcascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: average AI-native seed-funded startup raises <=$2M before $10M ARRcascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearstarget window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
29 plotted · 5 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to XHB.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.