Timeline Fan

20 of 20 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Click a symbol to scope to claims affecting that company

GSAT 36 FLY 25 KRMN 25 AMZN 20 VOYG 20 MYNA 17 ASTS 16 BA 16 BKSY 16 DISH 16 IRDM 16 LHX 16 LMT 16 NOC 16

Filters

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

20 plotted · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to VOYG.

VOYG-impacting (4)

248_019

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.

65% → 12% · resolves 2026-06

-53pp

248_037

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.

50% → 10% · resolves 2026-06

-40pp

230_016

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).

92% → 55% · resolves 2030-06

-37pp

246_014

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip.

62% → 40% · resolves 2026-11

-22pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.