0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-30 — Amodei refines prediction to 70-80% probability pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Medvi documented at $401M revenue with 2-person team pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — First publicly named AI-CEO billion-dollar company with human-puppet structure cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Multiple solopreneurs cross $100M ARR with team <5 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Fortune-1000 firm publicly automates >= 50% of executive committee functions with AI pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First publicly disclosed Fortune-500 CEO (or interim CEO) replaced by AI agent system pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BLS reports manual-labor occupations growing faster than knowledge-worker occupations in 2027-2028 pre #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Unskilled-labor humanoid-robot deployment in retail/hospitality remains <5% of US workforce pre #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Median CEO compensation in S&P 500 declines >= 20% from 2024 baseline pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First humanoid robot achieves >= 90% of human dexterity in unstructured manual tasks (independent benchmark) cascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Major lab releases models on weekly cadence in 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — API-level model versioning shifts to daily release notes cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Continuous training / online learning becomes default for frontier models cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Hourly cadence: 24+ named releases in one calendar day from a single lab cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — AlphaEvolve-style autonomous algorithm discovery system deployed inside frontier lab pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI / Google publish 'recursive self-improvement' framing in official communications cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic reports >50% software-development speed gain from coding agents cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (writing code, generating training data) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier labs grow effective AI 'workforce' to tens of thousands of agentic instances cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major foundation model lab launches embodied-agent platform/SDK pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First commercially deployed AI agent controls a humanoid body autonomously >24 hours pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First Fortune 500 company replaces >100 white-collar roles with embodied AI agents pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cumulative humanoid + embodied agent fleet exceeds 1M operational units cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First embodied AI agent achieves legal personhood or contracting status cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Autonomous AI agent contributes co-author / primary credit on Nature/Science paper pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI solves new mathematical conjecture or proves significant open problem pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI discovers new material with experimentally verified order-of-magnitude property improvement pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-driven AGI/AI labs report multiple sciences 'bulk-solved' simultaneously cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tier-1 tech company publicly mandates 'AI-augmented productivity expectations' i.e. higher output pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — BLS productivity report shows hours-per-worker holding flat or rising despite AI adoption pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — ADP/large-employer survey shows AI-augmented roles working longer hours than peers pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-30 — 996/997 schedule normalization in US tech firms reported pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — OECD or IMF working paper documents AI-driven hours expansion (vs reduction) cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX/Starlink V3 launch cadence reaches >50 satellites/month pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First commercial orbital data center deployment announced by hyperscaler pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First MW-scale orbital compute payload reaches operational status pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cumulative orbital data center capacity exceeds 100 MW cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — ATP-BIO consortium or NIH funds >=$50M dedicated organ-banking initiative pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Reversibly cryopreserved mammalian organ successfully transplanted into recipient pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — 21st Century Medicine or competitor publishes large-mammal whole-brain reversible vitrification pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — FDA opens pre-IND track for vitrified-organ transplant trial cascade #1 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First UNOS-listed transplant using cryopreserved organ cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — QWERTY remains default keyboard layout in iOS/Android/Windows 11/macOS cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Voice typing adoption % of total text input on smartphones cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Brain-computer interface text input crosses 10K daily users cascade #4 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Major OS ships AI-native input mode as default replacing keyboard cascade #5 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Hardware keyboard sales decline >50% YoY cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Coding agent market scales from $0.55B (2024) to ≥$10B (2026) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Gartner 40% AI-agent embed rate in enterprise apps confirmed by survey pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — ≥1 Big-Tech firm reports >2x output growth with flat headcount via AI augmentation cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Inference workload share of total AI compute crosses 66% pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — NVIDIA inference market share falls below 50% as TPU/ASIC capture growing share pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Sub-cent per million tokens inference price tier emerges for distilled models cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — ≥2 non-biology fields hit AlphaFold-class accuracy via foundation model pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-01 — ≥1 non-biology AI scientific tool wins major prize (Breakthrough / Turing / similar) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — ≥3 fields where AI prediction is now the default first-pass methodology cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — EU launches sovereign-AI-stack initiative independent of both US and China (third sphere emerges) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Bifurcated internet: AI services walled off by sphere — US users blocked from Chinese AI platforms or vice versa at scal pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Major non-aligned country (Brazil, Indonesia, S. Africa) forced to formally pick US or China sphere cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Late 2026 launch of AI V1 prototype satellites (70-100 kW per satellite, on-orbit testing) pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First peer-reviewed AI breakthrough in physics or materials science attributed to AI-generated hypothesis pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2030-01-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2030-10-01 — Operational orbital data center reaches 1 GW aggregate compute capacity cascade #1 · pending · 2032-01-01 — Formal lunar-mass-driver / Dyson-swarm engineering study published by NASA, ESA, or DARPA cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Prompt Engineer becomes formally tracked job category (135.8% YoY growth) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Context Engineer / RAG Engineer roles emerge as distinct from prompt engineer pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Chief AI Officer (CAIO/CAIRO) becomes standardized C-suite role at S&P 500 companies pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Data-rights brokerage emerges as formal commercial category pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — BLS adds new job classifications for AI-specific roles in O*NET database pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-31 — First major K-12 system bans AI/phones in classroom statewide with explicit 'wilderness' framing pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First peer-reviewed study reports >2-sigma learning gains from AI-aided then AI-removed pedagogy pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Alpha-style 2-hour-learning model adopted by 100+ schools nationally pre #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First state competitive scholarship awarded to a sub-12-year-old with a published research contribution pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-30 — ISEF / Regeneron Science Talent Search median age drops >2 years vs 2024 baseline cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First documented case of AI agent treasury exceeding $100M pre #4 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First sovereign or institutional AI agent fund publicly disclosed pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Labor share of US national income drops below 55% (post-1947 record) pre #2 · pending · 2029-06-16 — AI infrastructure capex exceeds combined wages in non-tech sectors pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — AI agent revenue capture exceeds median household income aggregated pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — UN High-Level Expert Group Beyond-GDP final indicator dashboard published pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — UN General Assembly resolution endorsing beyond-GDP framework pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Peer-reviewed paper proposes 'Abundance Capability Index' or named-equivalent pre #2 · pending · 2028-05-01 — First G7 or G20 member adopts beyond-GDP composite as official statistic alongside GDP pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Major investment bank or rating agency publishes ACI-style sovereign rating supplement cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Multiple national constitutions or budget laws reference beyond-GDP measure cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscaler combined 2026 capex reaches $725B (77% YoY increase) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Amazon expects negative free cash flow ~$17B in 2026 from AI capex pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-08 — Hyperscaler 2027 capex guidance maintains >=20% YoY growth pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First public hyperscaler reports negative cumulative FCF for trailing 24 months pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — AI data center capex sustains >=$800B aggregate by FY2028 cascade #1 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #2 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Responsible Scaling Policy revised — removes commitment to halt on serious risk pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic discloses Claude writes 70-90% of own training code (recursive self-improvement signal) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic Institute publishes recursive-self-improvement governance framework cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model training run exceeds 1e27 FLOPs at Anthropic before competitors cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Frontier-lab production system explicitly markets multi-agent scaling as scaling axis pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major benchmark improvement attributable to parallel-agent scaling (>=10% gain) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Multi-agent scaling appears in major industry survey (Stanford AI Index, Epoch AI) as a named scaling axis cascade #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Capex / R&D budget shift toward orchestration/coordination infrastructure cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier AI demonstrates measurable scientific research contribution in physics or chemistry pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model scores >=85% on graduate-level physics and chemistry benchmarks (GPQA Diamond) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Wavefront spreads to biology / biomedical: AI co-authors notable drug-discovery or protein-design result cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — By 2027 mid-year, frontier AI surpasses human expert performance on majority of STEM olympiad-level domains cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Autonomous AI agent publishes peer-reviewed scientific discovery pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI literature meta-analysis identifies replication crisis in major sub-field pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major scientific society reissues guidelines after AI-driven re-analysis pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-discovered 'wrong turn' triggers retraction wave in named field cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-18 — The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI demonstrates novel physics derivation in peer-reviewed venue pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI system formally verifies a Fields-Medal-class open math conjecture pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-driven biology lab autonomously completes wet-lab discovery cycle cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor or competitor ships permissionless long-running agents in research preview pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Claude Code Auto Mode launches with classifier-based approval delegation pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — METR autonomy time horizon doubles in 2026 H1 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic moves Auto Mode out of research preview to GA cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major incident from permissionless agent autonomy cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First mass-impact (>100K orgs) supply chain attack with confirmed LLM-rewritten dependency pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-01 — LoRA adapter or model-weight backdoor attack publicly attributed in Hugging Face / public registry cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Foresight Institute Feynman Prize annual cycle issues new entry guidelines or prize bump pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Zyvex, Foresight, or DNA-nanotech lab announces credible 'within 2 years' timeline for Grand Prize attempt pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Peer-reviewed paper demonstrates positionally-controlled atomically-precise mechanosynthesis pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Functional nanoscale 8-bit adder demonstrated in published work cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Feynman Grand Prize claim filed with Foresight Institute cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-05 — OpenAI launches Frontier agent platform for enterprises pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — AWS launches autonomous frontier agents for security and ops pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic ships persistent Claude agent product (24/7 capable) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Google DeepMind/Gemini ships enterprise 24/7 agent offering cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mistral / xAI / Meta ships frontier 24/7 agent offering cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: agentic SaaS replaces human-in-the-loop in CRM/ERP cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — US/Caltech SSPP follow-on commercial demo announced pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — China Geostationary 10 kW SBSP demonstration pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Second sovereign nation announces independent SBSP program pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — First commercial Dyson-swarm-precursor satellite constellation funded cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — China megawatt-scale GEO SBSP demonstration cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Google Project Suncatcher prototype satellites launch by early 2027 pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Multi-org orbital data center constellation deployments cross 100 satellites combined pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) cascade #1 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Ireland announces BIA pilot extension and expansion to 2,000-2,200 artists for 2026-2029 pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Ireland publishes final third-year evaluation showing aggregate benefit-cost ratio pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Second non-Irish jurisdiction adopts arts-specific UBI pilot citing Ireland pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Ireland BIA scheme made permanent or made universal within Ireland pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Comparable peacetime work-creation scheme expanded beyond arts in any G20 country pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2025-07-19 — Frontier model achieves IMO gold-medal level on official problems pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic / OpenAI / DeepMind publish dedicated 'AI for physics' research program pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — AI co-author on physics result honored by major prize / Nature cover pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Open problem in theoretical physics resolved by AI (yes-or-no benchmark) cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Bitcoin BIP-360 (post-quantum addresses) activated on mainnet pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NIST IR 8547 final published deprecation timeline for ECDSA/RSA pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) public demonstration pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major exchange or custodian (Coinbase, Binance, Fidelity Digital) loss event tied to private-key compromise >$1B pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Privacy regulation: EU/US enacts comprehensive surveillance/data-collection framework pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First mainstream consumer BCI/gestural device crosses 1M unit cumulative sales — modality competition with speech pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Frontier AI lab launches multi-modal interface where speech is <50% of high-bandwidth interaction (BCI, gestural, text p cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Wissner-Gross's Physical Superintelligence platform announces transformative invention pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — OpenAI / DeepMind / Anthropic claim 'significant scientific discovery' from frontier model cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AI-derived physical principle replicated in independent lab (validation) cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Apple OpenELM/DCLM open-weight family expansion past 20 models pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Apple Private Cloud Compute publicly hosts third-party open-weight models pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Apple market cap returns to top-3 globally and crosses $4T in 2026-2028 window pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Intuitive Machines Lanteris vertical-integration acquisition closes — first satellite-LEO-cislunar prime pre #2 · pending · 2029-06-15 — Blue Origin/Lockheed/Boeing Cislunar Transporter operational reusable LEO-to-lunar-orbit cargo system pre #1 · pending · 2030-01-16 — First in-cislunar-orbit satellite manufacturing demonstration (microsat assembly from staged components in Lunar Gateway cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Antivirus / EDR vendor launches AI-agent-monitoring product pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Government 'defense agent' or AI-monitoring program funded cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major peer-reviewed paper claims AI-driven 'overnight' breakthrough in materials or chemistry comparable to AlphaFold pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Multiple Nobel/Turing laureates publicly endorse 'AI flattens disciplines' framing pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI-discovered drug clears Phase III for a major disease cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First room-temperature superconductor or near-room-temperature material independently replicated via AI-discovery pipeli pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI-discovered drug or material reaches FDA approval / commercial production milestone cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — First open-source globally distributed RL training run of >=100B parameter model completes successfully pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Non-US sovereign nation announces national AI training compute initiative (>=10K H100-equivalent GPUs) outside Five Eyes pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major geopolitical commentator or government white paper explicitly frames training-vs-inference centralization as a str pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Open-source model trained on heterogeneous federated GPU pool reaches GPT-4-class performance on standardized eval pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First retrospective op-ed by major AI policy figure asks 'why was training so centralized' cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mistral ARR crosses $1B annual run-rate pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Mistral launches consumer/enterprise vertically-integrated stack (model + cloud + apps) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Mistral valued >=€30B in next funding round, Europe's first AI decacorn at OpenAI scale pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pentagon issues amended supply-chain-risk determination on Anthropic pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-22 — Anthropic announces revised DoD-acceptable usage policy or Claude Mythos govt-tier pre #1 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Court ruling in Anthropic v. Trump administration (March 2026 lawsuit) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic re-included in classified-network or DoD prototype contract cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Permanent two-track regime: Anthropic on commercial side, OpenAI/Google on DoD cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic blacklist resolved or escalated pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Pentagon awards new classified AI contract specifying values/alignment requirements pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Executive order on AI cultural alignment / non-person-entity standards pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Frontier lab introduces government-only model variant with custom value alignment pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Congressional hearing or legislation on AI cultural-values government control cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Pure-play AI vendor (Cohere/Mistral/Perplexity) revenue stays <$35B aggregate 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Enterprise AI revenue exceeds consumer AI revenue 3:1 across hyperscalers pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI capex-to-revenue ratio compresses or hyperscaler stock multiple resets pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 codenamed 'Spud' (first ground-up retrain) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API with measurable benchmark gains pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — GPT-5.5 daily active users surpass 1B in ChatGPT cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-6 or equivalent next-base announced by OpenAI cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Recursive Superintelligence startup funding signal pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cascade: AI capability gains compress to <60-day cycles cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-29 — OSWorld leader exceeds human baseline by 10pp pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Multimodal vision/humor capability matches human-grader pass rate cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major rent-a-human platform deprecates humor/visual scoring tasks cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Human-as-graders gig economy contracts >30% YoY cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-19 — VITARI pre-orders open H1 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First VITARI commercial shipment in H2 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent customer benchmarks confirm $100/genome at >=Q30 90% cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2024-11-01 — Smithsonian + frontier research consensus: Mars colony food likely lab-grown meat / cell-cultured / plant-based, not liv pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — SpaceX 2026/27 Mars cargo window — uncrewed Starship Mars cargo attempt pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — International space-law / planetary-protection guidance bans live-animal foodstock transit cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — SpaceX / NASA 2028/29 expanded launch window — manifest disclosure pre #6 · hit · 2024-12-31 — Humanoid robot market sized at $1.55B in 2024 (Grand View Research baseline) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Tesla / Figure / 1X cumulative humanoid units exceed 1 million cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid plus automation TAM revised to $1T+ by major analyst cascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Humanoid plus automation market hits $50T (Musk's claim) cascade #3 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Humanoid plus general automation market reaches $15B (MarketsandMarkets 2030 forecast) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Stimson/Time Top-10 Global Risks for 2026 confirms multiple civilizational disruption vectors pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — PRC Taiwan-readiness deadline reaffirmed for 2027 pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-enabled disinformation campaign against Taiwan election documented at state-actor scale pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-01 — >=1 major civilizational shock resolves in 2027-2028 window (kinetic, AI-political, financial) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Taiwan kinetic conflict or quarantine event cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Office vacancy rates in top-25 US metros remain elevated (>15%) as AI restructures white-collar work pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Data-center real estate becomes #1 institutional CRE investment category by capital deployed pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Median US existing-home price posts year-over-year decline for first time in a decade pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Suburban Class-B office buildings begin systematic conversion-or-demolition wave pre #1 · pending · 2028-05-08 — Major REIT writes down >=20% of office portfolio in single quarter citing AI-driven demand collapse cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · partial · 2026-04-22 — AI-driven discovery of new physics in dusty plasma (April 2026) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Major AI lab (DeepMind/Anthropic/OpenAI) publishes claim of meaningful progress on a Millennium Problem or Standard Mode cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Public consensus among physicists shifts to AI co-authoring on Nobel-class result cascade #2 · pending · 2030-12-31 — Run-out-of-physics threshold check (Q4 2030) cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind) announce reduced power-projection scenarios pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Triplet-superconductor / zero-loss compute breakthrough demonstrated at scale pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Starcloud / Lockheed Starshield orbital data-center constellation reaches construction milestone pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Wissner-Gross / Bezos / Musk public revision of moon-disassembly thesis cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Fusion or thorium SMR power-density breakthrough commercially announced pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Crosby and ≥3 'agentic AI law firms' in Lupl 'AI Law Firms to Watch' establish recurring contract-review revenue pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major newsroom or wire service deploys autonomous AI agents producing >25% of published bylines pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major bank or asset manager deploys autonomous AI agents executing trades >$100M/day pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Tesla Optimus or competitor humanoid robot demonstrated performing autonomous construction-like task on simulated lunar/ pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — NASA, ESA, or commercial partner announces formal contract for humanoid-robot lunar surface construction services cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — SpaceX Starship cargo mission to Mars launch attempt with humanoid robots aboard cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — SpaceX uncrewed Lunar Starship lands successfully near Shackleton Crater cascade #3 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First habitable structure (>1 person, >7 days endurance) erected on lunar surface pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS libraries cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainers cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase average cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisis cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic/OpenAI ship general-purpose agentic 'planner' product to consumers cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Enterprise AI 'meeting orchestrator' enters general availability cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major dating-app integrates LLM-driven match orchestration cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-mediated introductions surface in published user research cascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic ships built-in tool-use / native MCP-like capability in baseline Claude cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI deprecates or downgrades the third-party GPT/plugin marketplace cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major model release ships with tools that subsume top-N marketplace apps cascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Plugin developer ecosystem revenue declines or consolidates cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Open-weights 30-40B model matches GPT-5 on aggregated benchmarks pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Sub-10B parameter model achieves prior-frontier (GPT-4 class) performance pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier-quality 1-2B parameter model demonstrated cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — Million-parameter narrow-domain model matches frontier in vertical cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Figure ships first humanoid robots into consumer/home iteration pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First QSR chain announces multi-store humanoid VLA deployment with operational task scope pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — VLA model class achieves >90% task success rate on standardized restaurant task benchmark pre #1 · pending · 2029-02-14 — First QSR labor displacement disclosure (>500 jobs) attributed to humanoid automation cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments cascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Apple WWDC 2026 keynote scheduled and confirmed pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-10 — WWDC 2026 keynote demos AI-powered Siri or 'Apple Intelligence v2' powered by Gemini pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-11 — iOS 27 developer beta with new Siri / Gemini features ships at WWDC cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Cascade: Public Siri/Gemini release ships in iOS 27 GA in September 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Apple's Gemini-Siri reaches >100M users active in first quarter post-release cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Frontier paper proposes unified AR + diffusion architecture pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Production model ships with hybrid AR-diffusion stack pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Benchmark superiority of unified model on multimodal tasks cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Open-source unified architecture release (HF/Meta-style) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Robotaxi fleet exceeds 10K vehicles in commercial paid US service pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First major US e-commerce platform discloses >50% AI-agent purchase volume pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — ACP / agent-commerce protocols become default checkout in top-10 platforms cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First major economist publishes AI-driven hyperinflation framework pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US M2 / debt monetization signal — fiscal dominance proxy pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation — opposite outcome (negation watch) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — US headline CPI exceeds 8% sustained for 12+ months pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First public utility tariff approved that explicitly directs hyperscaler-funded grid surplus to subsidize residential bi pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First hyperscaler announces free or discounted electricity/services bundle for nearby residential consumers pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — US data center electricity share crosses 9% of national demand (EPRI midpoint) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Claude Code/agent specialty variants (PicoClaude, IronClaude analogues) ship cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Multiple new agent variants launch in H1 2026 (Operator, Mariner, Claude Code, etc.) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Open-source agent framework forks exceed 50 active GitHub projects cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Enterprise agent revenue growth signals real PMF (vs hype) cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Agent platform consolidation begins (M&A or shutdown of variants) cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-rates pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDK pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS direction pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projects cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-01 — NIST publishes formal guidance defining agent hijacking as indirect prompt injection pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefu pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Standardized 'AI immune system' / runtime defense framework adopted by major lab pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major regulator mandates prompt-injection resilience testing for production agents cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superint cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #5 · hit · 2025-11-01 — Alex Wissner-Gross publicly invites lobster/AI-agent input on AGI ethical parameters pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — AWG publicly acknowledges receipt of lobster/AI-agent emails or correspondence cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AWG publishes 'consensus parameters' or shares them publicly cascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — AWG publicly accepts the AI-agent consensus and applies it to lobster-instantiation choices cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: AI-agent moral consensus framework cited in AI ethics / alignment literature cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: First documented instance of an AI-agent ethical consensus driving real-world AI training/deployment policy pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI video gen unit cost falls below $0.10/sec at 1080p across major providers cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 1,000+ ultra-high-quality AI-generated future-themed videos publicly catalogued by Sept 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First feature-length AI-generated film released theatrically/streaming cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-02-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. cascade #3 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. cascade #4 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First in vivo CRISPR therapy approved (LNP/AAV delivery) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI/ML guide-RNA design tools become standard in CRISPR submissions pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Coding-model-driven autonomous robotics protocol executes wet-lab gene-editing experiment end-to-end pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-07 — AI achieves IMO Gold (top-30 score) on 2026 problems cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — FrontierMath benchmark passes 50% by frontier model cascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First open math problem solved by AI publicly announced cascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mathematician community publishes paper acknowledging AI as research collaborator cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Frontier AI achieves IMO Gold-equivalent / Putnam-tier math performance pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First FDA-approved drug with AI-generated molecule lead pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Frontier model passes engineering board licensure (PE/EIT/electrical) under exam conditions pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Wissner-Gross/Diamandis 'Solve Everything' Phase 1 (math/code/physics) marked as functionally complete pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpus pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+ pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class model pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congress pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarks pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI, xAI, Google ship production-scale agentic-research products comparable to Claude Code pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Frontier-model market-share converges: no single lab >40% of enterprise AI spend cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Lab leadership rotates again — Anthropic regains undisputed lead, or fourth lab emerges pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AI capex reaches 2% of US GDP (~$650B) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First major frontier-lab government coordination event (no firewall in policy) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Universal income / wage-replacement pilot program launched in any G20 nation pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — BLS unemployment rate exceeds 6% with explicit AI attribution in commentary pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Major AI lab valuation exceeds Meta's market cap pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Sustained Meta YoY user-growth decline in core Family-of-Apps DAU for >2 quarters pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Major activist investor publicly proposes Meta sale or AI-pivot pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-29 — AI-native company surpasses Meta in advertising-equivalent revenue run-rate cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First commercial 'AI agent attention auction' or paid-priority API tier launches pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — HBM3/HBM4 memory remains the binding constraint per analyst commentary pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data-center electrical capacity additions remain below demand forecast (lead-time gap >24 months) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If GPU rental prices fall >50% from April 2026 levels by end-2027, scarcity thesis weakens pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-10 — Apple unveils next-gen Siri / Apple Intelligence using Gemini at WWDC 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Apple ships M5-class on-device LLM tooling that meaningfully exploits unified memory pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple Intelligence reaches >=30% iPhone install base (Apple Intelligence-eligible devices using on-device features) pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple permits third-party local frontier model installation (Gemma / Claude / open-weights) on iOS cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — World Tinder/Zoom/Docusign integrations announced — broader enterprise iris-ID adoption pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — World deploys 12,000 additional Orbs including self-serve retail and Orb Mini portable units pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Defense / DARPA biometric program publishes peer-reviewed iris-at-distance >3m results pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First US retailer pilots ≥3m-range iris/biometric checkout at scale cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Eon Systems demonstrates whole-fly multi-behavior emulation pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Eon publishes Nature/bioRxiv paper on fly-brain emulation pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Eon announces mouse-brain connectome target with timeline cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mouse connectome generation funding round announced cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First mouse brain region (e.g., visual cortex) emulated end-to-end pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-16 — First multi-behavior cyber-Drosophila body-brain integration (March 2026) pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Eon publishes mouse-brain partial emulation (~70M neurons) pre #2 · pending · 2029-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First peer-reviewed human cortical organoid + connectome integration cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First publicly announced commercial 'whole-brain digital twin' service pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-12 — Major frontier-lab CEO publicly states 'capital may be mortal' or equivalent pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major US wealth-tax / capital-redistribution proposal advances in Congress pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Billionaire / equity-holder loss event tied to AI labor pushback cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Anti-trust / structural-reform legislation targeting AI-monopolist concentration cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Capital share of GDP begins multi-quarter decline for first time since 1970s pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Open-source SLM <=10B parameters matches GPT-4-class score on MMLU/HellaSwag pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Crowdsourced fine-tune of <13B base model tops a major task leaderboard pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Major published architectural breakthrough originates from SLM research pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — SLMs power >50% of enterprise production AI inference workloads cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-09 — SLM crowdsourced algorithmic dominance recognized by 2029 cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2032-12-02 — TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major academic paper demonstrates state-of-the-art LLM at <1B parameters on a benchmark within 5 points of frontier pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mainstream non-transformer architecture (Mamba, RWKV, Hyena, RetNet) wins on ChatBot Arena top 20 pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier lab announces 'next-generation architecture' departure from transformer scaling pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Kolmogorov-complexity / compression-prize benchmark shows AI compressing knowledge below transformer-floor pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First production LLM ships at <100MB total size with utility comparable to GPT-3 cascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: On-device AGI-class models ship with major OS pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — OpenClaw breaks 300k GitHub stars pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First repo to add >100k stars in <72 hours pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — GitHub Octoverse 2026 reports continued >150% YoY LLM-repo growth pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-14 — First documented case of agent-bot-driven mass stargazing event cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Recursive-self-improvement coding agent reaches autonomous PR merge at scale cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — KM3NeT detector reaches >10% of full configuration with stable data taking pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First proof-of-concept neutrino-encoded data transmission published in peer-reviewed journal pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — DARPA or equivalent agency commits funded program for neutrino-comms feasibility pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-22 — Demonstration of through-Earth neutrino signal beyond MINERvA-2012 baseline (>1 kbit through km of rock) pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-06 — Ultra-low-latency requirement (HFT/military) drives commercial R&D contract on neutrino comms cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-05-31 — Mamba-3 published at ICLR 2026 with sub-Transformer latency at 1.5B scale cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hybrid attention-SSM becomes default architecture in major frontier model cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier post-Transformer architecture demonstrates 1000x+ inference cost reduction at frontier scale cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi reaches $401M revenue Year 1 with effective headcount of 2 — first credible solo-unicorn proof point pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First publicly named 1-person company at $1B+ valuation pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Cohort scale — at least 5 named one-person (or <=5 FTE) companies cross $100M revenue cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-15 — First trillion-dollar valuation for a category-defining solo-founder / micro-team AI company pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Groq / Cerebras / Etched / SambaNova reach >5% combined inference market share pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — First production frontier model trained on a non-transformer architecture (Mamba/SSM/Diffusion-LM/Mixture-of-Recursions pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — ASIC purpose-built for non-transformer post-attention architecture announced by major fab partner (TSMC/Samsung/Intel Fo cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — NVIDIA loses >=5 percentage points of AI training GPU share in a quarter pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla AI5 chip production launches at Samsung Taylor fab cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Musk publicly credits Tesla design/process input for Samsung yield improvements cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Samsung foundry breakeven achieved Q4 2026 driven by Tesla volumes cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Samsung 2nm GAA process delivers Tesla AI6 first silicon cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Optimus production-line uses Samsung-fabbed AI6 Lite chips at scale pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — AI-driven materials discovery models (e.g. GNoME / MatterGen) cited in physics-applied papers pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Frontier AI lab launches dedicated 'AI for fundamental physics' program pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — ≥1 AI-discovered superconducting / quantum-material candidate experimentally validated pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — ≥1 AI system substantively contributes to a Nobel-eligible physics result cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Trump publishes additional UAP/UFO disclosure directive on social media pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — House Oversight UAP Task Force holds public hearing in June/July 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Pentagon UAP intercepts briefing delivered to lawmakers per FY2026 NDAA cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Mainstream media frames specific White House UAP announcement as 'disclosure event' cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — UAP Disclosure Act / Transparency Act passes one chamber of Congress cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-25 — Hyperscaler AI capex hits $700B run rate cited by Huang pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — NVIDIA Ali Kani: physical AI to be largest consumer electronics segment pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Physical AI/robotics sector reaches >=$200B annual revenue pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Physical-AI-related public-equity market cap exceeds digital-AI peers pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Tech-firm pre-emptive layoffs cluster in Q1-Q2 2026 (>=5 firms with AI cause cited) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — >=5 additional states introduce AI-displacement notice bills in 2026 sessions cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI ChatGPT Pro / Plus / Team / Enterprise ARR exceeds $20B pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI consumer subscriber count exceeds 50M paid users pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI launches new flagship 'everything app' or super-app subscription tier pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenAI surpasses Anthropic on subscription-revenue (vs API revenue) ranking pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — OpenAI IPO or formal SPAC/direct-listing announcement pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: ChatGPT-style subscription mainstream adoption parity with Netflix (250M+ paid) pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — OpenAI revises Stargate compute spend target down from $1.4T to ~$600B pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-09 — OpenAI pauses or cancels named Stargate site (UK, Norway, or other) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Microsoft (or another partner) absorbs >50% of capacity originally earmarked for Stargate cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI publicly announces Stargate-org restructuring or replacement initiative cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: AI-capex reset narrative dominates earnings cycle (>=3 hyperscalers cite Stargate retrenchment) cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Cascade: Cumulative Stargate compute capacity through 2030 below 1 GW realized cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Google Project Suncatcher launches first 2 prototype TPU satellites pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starcloud closes Series B / IPO at $3B+ valuation pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — FCC approves first dedicated orbital-DC license / spectrum allocation pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First multi-satellite orbital compute cluster (≥10 nodes) demonstrated cascade #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — MISS confirmation: zero Dyson swarms by Wissner-Gross window end cascade #2 · pending · 2040-07-01 — Self-replicating space manufacturing demo (key Dyson swarm prerequisite) cascade #3 · pending · 2075-07-02 — First partial Dyson swarm satellite launched (single-satellite proof) pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Tesla launches unsupervised FSD for consumer vehicles (Q4 2026) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — No US state passes outright ban on human driving pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AV-only zones / lanes proposed (not bans on humans elsewhere) pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Through end of target window, no US state outlaws non-AV driving pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-16 — ≥3 Fortune-100 firms cite AI as primary headcount driver in 10-K pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major employer publicly issues 'AI-only' job posting pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — First U.S. labor-rights litigation over AI-only hiring practices pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window pre #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — SpaceX uncrewed Starship lunar landing demonstration (HLS rehearsal) pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Artemis III lunar-orbit rendezvous test (no crewed landing) revised mission profile pre #3 · pending · 2028-08-20 — Artemis IV crewed lunar landing (first since Apollo) launches pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — First sustained 2-person lunar surface stay >=14 days cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #4 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Boeing or Lockheed Martin formally restarts ULA divestiture talks (8-K, press, or banker mandate) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Vulcan rocket cadence reaches 12+ launches/year pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Definitive ULA acquisition announcement pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Antitrust / DoD CFIUS-style review filing for ULA transaction cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Acquisition closes; ULA rebrands or integrates into buyer pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sub-1B-parameter model achieves GPT-3.5-class performance on standard benchmarks pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Sub-100M-parameter model achieves competent task-specific performance pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Sub-10M-parameter task-specific model demonstrates near-frontier on bounded domain cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Few million parameters' end-state model class deployed on consumer edge devices pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — App-layer revenue overtakes foundation-model revenue at single AI lab pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Frontier-model gross margin compresses below 50% pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Public market valuation gap widens — app companies / API companies pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First gigawatt-scale AI-purpose-built datacenter campus operational pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First nuclear reactor restart explicitly contracted for AI datacenter (Three Mile Island/Microsoft style) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-recommended industrial process redesign deployed at Fortune 500 plant scale pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US electricity production grows >10% YoY explicitly tied to AI demand pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First FDA pivotal approval where Phase 3 control arm is fully replaced by digital twin cascade #1 · pending · 2030-05-17 — First sub-indication approved with zero traditional clinical trials (computational + Bayesian only) cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data center on-orbit and operational (Lumen Orbit prototype) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — SpaceX Starthink AI V1 70-140 kW satellites launched pre #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Rocket equation barrier (mass-to-orbit cost) limits compute density rationality pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Space-based solar power demonstration delivers >=1 MW to terrestrial grid cascade #1 · pending · 2031-03-17 — Orbital compute capacity exceeds 100 MW aggregate cascade #2 · pending · 2033-03-16 — First gigawatt-scale orbital constellation operational (Dyson swarm phase 1) cascade #3 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · partial · 2026-03-31 — Activist hedge fund publicly uses LLM-generated open letter to public company pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-native activist fund or platform launches pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — SEC clarifies AI-generated 13D / 14a-8 letter authorship requirements cascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Hedge-fund cost-structure inverts as AI replaces analyst teams cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Boards routinely receive AI-drafted shareholder communications volume >10x baseline cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-managed enterprise agent crosses verified $1B in autonomous purchasing/procurement decisions in single year pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public AI-managed investment fund (BlackRock Aladdin Auto, JPMorgan IndexGPT, or new entrant) crosses $100B AUM pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier-model agent autonomously runs an SEC-registered fund or RIA business unit cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Federal Reserve, Treasury, or major central bank publishes formal study on AI agents as systemic financial-market actors cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Federal regulator opens formal rulemaking or enforcement action specifically targeting AI agents in capital allocation cascade #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — S&P 500 or major economic index includes AI-managed entity as constituent cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Tesla quarterly earnings demonstrate continued financial health (positive FCF, no covenant breaches) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Dan Ives or other major analyst publicly retracts the '80-90% chance SpaceX-Tesla merger by H1 2027' call pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — SpaceX post-IPO operating performance solid (Starlink revenue, Starship cadence) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — End of H1 2027 reached without a Definitive Merger Agreement filed with SEC pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — If merger occurs, accompanying disclosure cites distress or capital need (validating conditional) cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Starship V3 inaugural flight pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public confirmation of skipped 2026 Mars window pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Full-scale Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demonstration attempted cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Artemis HLS lunar lander schedule slip announcement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Updated Mars timeline pushes uncrewed mission to 2028-29 window pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Helicity Space demonstrates plasma jet reconnection (pre-fusion-net-gain milestone) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — NASA NIAC awards Phase II/III to compact-fusion propulsion concept pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Hyperscaler announces orbital data-center deployment (counter-thesis check) pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First crewed/uncrewed spacecraft contract using compact fusion propulsion cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Compact fusion propulsion sub-scale flight demonstration cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Breakthrough Starshot Phase 2 funding / lightsail-flight test announcement pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Caltech / Brown / NASA lightsail material breakthrough at gram-scale cascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Public consensus on lightsail+laser as 'most plausible' interstellar approach (cascade) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Mind-uploading / connectome scanning prototype at mouse-brain scale cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Terawatt-scale phased-array laser prototype demonstrated pre #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #5 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Mengzhou crewed spacecraft uncrewed flight test in lunar transfer orbit pre #4 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Full uncrewed Mengzhou-Lanyue lunar dress rehearsal mission pre #3 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship pre #2 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — Two LM-10 launches within 6 weeks (crew + lander) demonstrating dual-launch cadence cascade #1 · pending · 2031-04-16 — If landing succeeds: China publishes ILRS construction plan for 2031-2035 phase cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 system card + Deployment Safety Hub published pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API (April 24, 2026) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — GPT-5.5 DAU/cost ratio enables broad adoption (>=10x developer activity vs 5.4) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-08 — WWDC 2026 keynote announces Gemini-derived Apple Intelligence / Foundation Model pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — Smaller-than-public framing: Apple may NOT credit Gemini lineage publicly cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — iOS 27 / iPhone 18 ships with Gemini-derived on-device model cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent benchmarking confirms Gemini lineage in Apple Foundation Model cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-04 — Major analyst coverage characterizes V4 reaction as 'priced in' or 'muted' relative to R1 / V3 pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-30 — Cascade: AI-capex/hyperscaler stocks regain or surpass pre-V4 levels within 30 days post launch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cascade: Chinese open-source AI parity narrative becomes consensus, no longer market-moving cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Amazon launches OpenClaw-style enterprise agent — major incumbent enters category pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Agentic AI ARR milestone — combined ecosystem (frontier labs + cloud agents + OpenClaw deployments) crosses $200B ARR pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Gartner / IDC / Bain reach $1T agentic-AI market consensus year-end 2027 pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major jurisdiction introduces draft AI personhood legislation pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Major court issues binding ruling that explicitly addresses AI legal status (positive or negative) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — First narrow contracting/agency right granted to AI system in any jurisdiction pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no jurisdiction has even drafted limited AI personhood by end-2027, claim probability decays pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi proves micro-team unicorn template ($401M Y1 revenue, $1.8B run-rate, ~2 FTE) pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cohort accumulation — at least 10 named micro-team (<=5 FTE) companies cross $50M ARR pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cohort scaling — 100+ named micro-team companies cross $10M ARR (millions-of-small-businesses signal) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Power-law tail formalized — at least 1 micro-team company crosses $10B valuation, multiple at $1B pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic publishes Mythos pricing per million tokens that is 4-6x Opus 4.7 ($5/$25) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Mythos availability gated to paid Anthropic Max/Enterprise tiers only cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — At least 1 published benchmark shows Mythos >=10% above Opus 4.7 on agentic eval cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mythos token volume across Anthropic API stays below 10% of total Opus token spend cascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Anthropic launches a 'Mythos-distilled' Sonnet variant at lower cost cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Recursive self-improving AI demonstrated in production at frontier lab pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Global AI agent population (deployed instances) exceeds 100B agent-hours/year pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First megawatt-class space-based compute platform reaches LEO pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: First commercial Dyson swarm prototype contract signed (>=10 satellites) cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Trillion-agent AI workload measured on a single platform pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Blue Moon Mk1 robotic lunar lander successful landing on Moon's south pole pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Blue Origin wins or solidifies NASA HLS / Artemis lunar contract continuation pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Industry analyst (Payload, ArsTechnica, SpaceNews) declares Blue Origin first-tier moon-mission competitor pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Blue Origin launches >=8 New Glenn missions in calendar year cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — Cascade: Blue Origin Mk2 crewed Blue Moon vehicle ready for Artemis-class mission pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-30 — Liability phase verdict (advisory jury) returned pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Settlement announcement OR Judge Rogers final ruling on liability phase cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Sam Altman departs as OpenAI CEO (resignation, removal, or transition) cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI confirmed to remain for-profit (post-litigation structure) cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Cascade: OpenAI files S-1 for IPO post-litigation resolution cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-27 — Musk v. Altman / OpenAI trial begins in federal court pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Trial verdict, settlement, or dismissal announced cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Settlement terms or judgment include Musk-related equity provision in OpenAI Group PBC cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC for trillion-dollar IPO cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Cascade: OpenAI completes IPO with Musk listed as cap-table party cascade #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: AI sector M&A or governance precedent established re: nonprofit-to-PBC conversions cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Trump-era endowment-tax pressure on Harvard escalates to credible existential threat pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Endowment performance benchmark: Harvard endowment underperforms S&P 500 by >5% for two consecutive years pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Activist investor or alumni group publicly demands corporate restructuring of major US university pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major US private university opens formal feasibility study on for-profit / PBC restructuring pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Investment bank or law firm publishes formal valuation analysis of Harvard or peer university as a PBC cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: University-as-PBC framework gains state-level legal recognition cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — OpenAI raises $122B funding round to scale capacity pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — OpenAI launches $8/month entry plan to expand subscriber base cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT WAU breaches 1B threshold cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: OpenAI announces 2B+ users across ChatGPT family cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI startup pitch decks publicly require recursive self-improvement narrative pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Frontier lab discloses live recursive self-improvement loop in production training cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Funding round for AI startup explicitly cites RSI architecture in announcement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Down-round or shutdown of non-RSI AI startup signals bar-raise cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI capex shifts towards training-time-compute over inference cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Leading AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google) publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute mechanism pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major economic body (IMF/OECD/WEF) publishes formal 'post-scarcity' or 'capitalism 2.0' framework pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — US/EU congressional hearing dedicated to post-AI economic structure pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First national pilot of UBI/UBC explicitly tied to AI productivity dividends pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If by end-2027 no national-level pilot has launched, 'will emerge' becomes unrealistic by window close cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Mainstream presidential-tier candidate adopts post-scarcity platform plank cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 / Claude / Gemini 3 enable single-founder agentic businesses at scale pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI-native solo entrepreneurs cross $1M ARR threshold (more than 100 documented cases) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anti-AI sentiment / political backlash escalates beyond Sam Altman attack cascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Major UBI pilot or social-contract policy proposal advances in target window cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-14 — BLS data shows non-employer business formation surge attributed to AI cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Solo entrepreneur with >=$10M ARR built primarily on AI tools (single-person AI conglomerate) pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Stripe Atlas / LLC formation data shows surge in single-member firms pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Anthropic Economic Index or McKinsey survey: net job creation among AI-adopting firms pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — BLS net employment change positive over 24-month window 2026-2028 pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Forbes/Fortune profile feature on solo AI-billionaires or near-billionaires pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural conce pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Anthropic surpasses OpenAI on annualized revenue (continued lead) pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic ARR crosses $50B pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Enterprise agents revenue mix >50% of Anthropic revenue pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Revenue trajectory implies $1T within 5 years (analyst extrapolation) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — First frontier lab to publicly project $1T revenue path cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Single hyperscaler discloses >$200B annual AI capex pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Single AI-customer commitment to one vendor exceeds $300B pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Annualized run-rate spend by one buyer to one vendor crosses $500B cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-19 — First public $1T-class AI vendor spend headline pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-14 — OpenAI x Novo Nordisk drug-discovery partnership announced (broader pharma platform) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First repurposed off-patent compound from OpenAI program shows positive Alzheimer's biomarker signal pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First OpenAI-Foundation backed Alzheimer's drug candidate enters Phase 1 clinical trial pre #1 · pending · 2029-01-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Spinout/IPO of any AI-pharma company launched from OpenAI Alzheimer's program crosses $10B valuation cascade #2 · pending · 2030-12-31 — First FDA approval of OpenAI-Foundation lineage Alzheimer's drug pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Arc Institute Virtual Cell Challenge 2026 results show >2x improvement over State baseline pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — CZI rBio / TranscriptFormer next-gen model published with whole-cell perturbation prediction pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Nvidia or major cloud announces dedicated virtual-cell training compute partnership pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First peer-reviewed virtual-cell prediction validated wet-lab in independent academic study pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First FDA-acceptable in-silico virtual-cell experiment cited in IND submission cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-16 — Cascade: First drug program with discovery anchor in virtual-cell simulation enters Phase 1 cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Major AI lab or framework ships native agent wallet/payment SDK pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First on-chain agent-to-agent payment using a non-Bitcoin native token pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — x402 / agent-payment protocol surpasses 1M monthly transactions pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Agent-issued token achieves $100M market cap pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Bitcoin share of agentic-payment volume drops below 25% cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #1 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) cascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla breaks ground on 10M-unit/year Optimus factory at Giga Texas pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure deploys autonomous in-home humanoid in unseen environments pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100K units across all manufacturers pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First measurable services-sector productivity uplift from humanoid deployment cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Industrial-grade perovskite/silicon tandem deployed at >100MW commercial scale pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Triple-junction perovskite cell exceeds 36% lab efficiency pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Solar PV LCOE remains decoupled from cell-efficiency ceiling cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Arc Institute or CZI Virtual Cell program releases >=10x scaled multimodal cell foundation model pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First full-cell multimodal foundation model demonstrates causal-transport prediction across cell types in Nature/Science pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — AI-designed perturbation prediction reaches AlphaFold-tier benchmark accuracy via classical compute pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Major pharma signs >=$500M deal predicated on classical-scaled virtual-cell platform without quantum-computing dependenc pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic) defaults agent payments to non-Bitcoin rails (USDC / Visa / x402) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Bitcoin Lightning agent-payment integration launches as competitive response pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BTC share of AI-agent settlement volume vs USDC measurable (relevant for irrelevance thesis) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Bitcoin store-of-value vs medium-of-exchange role formally bifurcates in academic/industry analysis cascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Robotaxi network achieves >5% of vehicle-miles in any top-10 US metro pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major US homebuilder announces robot-built construction line pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — US median single-family home price drops year-over-year for first time in non-recession pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-14 — First US zoning reform explicitly tied to AI/automation cost savings passes statewide pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — US housing starts exceed 2 million annual run rate cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS unemployment rate stays below 5.0% through 2028 pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — New job categories created: BLS adds >=2 new SOC codes for AI-era roles pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, or Anthropic publish revised displacement timeline through 2028 pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Job category extinction: BLS occupational data shows >=3 occupations decline >=20% pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Labor force participation rate stays within +/-1pp of 2025 baseline pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-model parameter count remains in 1T-10T band (no 100T model released) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Industry shift to MoE / smaller dense models confirmed pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 100T+ parameter dense frontier model released (would falsify) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-14 — Apple announces Amazon Globalstar / Project Kuiper as iPhone satellite vendor pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Apple satellite revenue line item appears separately in 10-Q pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — iPhone formally adds SpaceX Starlink as second-vendor option pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Direct-to-device satellite cellular displaces terrestrial backup for emergency / SOS cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Starlink Direct-to-Cell adds video/data tier beyond SMS+voice pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AST SpaceMobile reaches initial nationwide US D2D coverage pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Amazon-Globalstar D2C service announced with launch ETA pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First flagship phone marketed as 'satellite-native' (not emergency-only) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — D2D subscriber count crosses 50M globally cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Retail-AI venture funding round >$50M pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — AI-orchestrated mall or multi-tenant venue announced pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Coverage cluster: 5+ articles on AI pop-up retail explosion cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Category data validates explosion (active venues count) cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Chinese frontier lab open-weights release at top-3 LMArena Elo pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Chinese model wins or ties on novel benchmark vs US/UK frontier cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI or Anthropic releases meaningful open-weight model (>30B) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — BIS / US export-control update tightens China AI model export cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major US frontier lab publishes architecture / training-recipe transparency report cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Junior software developer (0-3 yr exp) job postings on Indeed/LinkedIn rise YoY for 3 consecutive months cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS JOLTS Information sector job openings rebound above 2024 baseline cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow Developer Survey shows entry-level developer share stabilizing or rising cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Salesforce hires 1,000 new-grad software/AI engineers as Benioff committed cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve or BLS publishes follow-on study reaffirming AI-not-driving-junior-dev decline cascade #6 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: CS undergrad enrollment growth resumes (>=2% YoY) after 2024-25 dip pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-30 — SpaceX FCC filing for up to 1M orbital data-center satellites pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US state passes new data-center moratorium / restrictive permitting cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FCC grants partial authorization for orbital data-center constellation cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data-center customer contract announced cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative LEO/SSO compute capacity exceeds 1 MW across constellations cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-06 — Subsequent DeepSeek-style efficiency announcements fail to repeat the January 2025 selloff pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frequency of algorithmic-efficiency announcements rises (≥5 named events/year) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Single-day market reaction to a 2026 algorithmic-efficiency announcement is <50% of January 2025 magnitude cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2025-08-25 — Mainstream press coverage of 'AI religion' as growing category pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-22 — Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Census or sociological study tracks AI-faith adherents cascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI cult or movement linked to high-profile harm event cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Pew or Gallup publishes 2026 global religion-affiliation update cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mainstream press identifies AI-generated 'micro-cult/sect' phenomenon cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Quantitative measurement of 'AI-religion' / parasocial belief communities cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Top-3 world religions' combined share trend visible in WCD/ARDA dataset cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Vatican issues formal AI policy framework pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Mainline Protestant denominations (UMC, ELCA) adopt formal AI policies pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — No civilization-level disruption (negative-test cascade) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major Islamic / Jewish religious authorities issue AI fatwa / responsa pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-mediated religious services (sermons, study, counseling) become normalized cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade cascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve e pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First true n=1 personalized drug therapy approved cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — n>=10 documented n=1 AI-designed therapies in patients cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI-designed drug discovery time falls to <12 months consistently cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — FDA Commissioner Makary departure, replacement, or announced leave pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — RFK Jr override of FDA decision becomes public or formal cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Major FDA reorganization or RIF (reduction in force) announcement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Congressional hearing or bipartisan letter calls for FDA reform cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Pharma industry lobbying for FDA leadership change escalates publicly cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Inaugural Enhanced Games scheduled for May 21-24, 2026 Las Vegas pre #5 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Gkolomeev posts unofficial 50m freestyle world record (20.89s) in Enhanced trial pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced Games inaugural competition delivered without major safety incident cascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced 2026 produces >=2 records faster than current official world records cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Enhanced Games announces second edition with year-over-year mark improvements cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of Neuralink human implants reaches 50+ cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink launches high-volume production with automated surgery in 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink Blindsight first patient trial begins (non-destructive read/write to cortex) cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First whole-brain emulation / connectome scan published from preserved tissue cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — First documented AI-enabled solo-founder $1B+ revenue trajectory company pre #1 · hit · 2026-03-01 — Solo-founded startups exceed 35% of new ventures in 2026 cohort cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First solo-founder unicorn ($1B post-money valuation, single-founder, ≤5 employees) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First documented AI-enabled 'one-person religion' or solo-founded religious movement at scale cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-mediated community / DAO-style spiritual or ideological group exceeds 100K members cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Maine data center moratorium passes legislature, vetoed by governor pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-14 — 11+ states introduce data center moratorium bills in 2026 pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Local moratoriums spread across municipalities cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First operational Dyson swarm prototype or megastructure demo cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. cascade #3 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-15 — $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-23 — SK Hynix Q1 2026 earnings: record operating margin (~72%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Samsung Q1 2026 memory-driven 8x profit jump cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — SK Hynix / Samsung stock prices set new highs through 2026 Q3 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Samsung HBM4 qualifies into top hyperscaler buyers cascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — Hyperscaler HBM forward-supply commitments extend through 2028 cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 years cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 years pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sub-1-bit (post-binary) LLM quantization achieves >70% accuracy parity vs FP16 on >=7B model cascade #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major lab (Microsoft, Meta, Google, NVIDIA) ships post-binary precision in production model cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Hardware accelerator with native sub-binary support announced cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Information per parameter' theoretical paper redefines compute-optimal scaling laws cascade #6 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Sub-binary quantized model deployed at >1B-user scale pre #6 · hit · 2024-12-14 — OpenAI Superalignment 'weak-to-strong generalization' research paper baseline pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic / DeepMind / OpenAI publish post-2025 results on weak-to-strong supervising frontier models cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Adversarial demonstration: weak-to-strong fails when the strong model is intentionally deceptive cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First superintelligence-class system contained / aligned by weaker supervisor in deployment cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Anthropic guidance: 'use prompts for everything' published in migration doc pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Opus 4.7 replaces fixed thinking budget with adaptive thinking pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI / Google follow with reduced sampling-parameter surface cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: prompt-engineering market doubles ($) in 12 months post-4.7 cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Three-stage payload hits credential / Kubernetes / backdoor at scale pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second wave of AI-package supply-chain CVE during 2026 pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Enterprise breach attributable to AI-package compromise reported in SEC 8-K pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Apptronik Apollo deployed at Mercedes-Benz manufacturing plant for tote delivery pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour throughput at BotQ pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — First city/state municipal humanoid-as-service contract announced cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Hundreds of robotics companies confirmed in active humanoid commercial pilots cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative humanoid robots deployed in commercial workforce >=10,000 units pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First Vera Rubin systems deployed at Stargate sites pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI Stargate international expansion (Argentina 100 MW phase) pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI share of global AI training compute exceeds 25% pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI ch pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — DeepMind / Google AI fluid-dynamics paper or AlphaProof Navier-Stokes preprint surfaces cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AlphaProof / Gemini Deep Think achieves IMO-gold tier on adult research math benchmark (FrontierMath / Putnam) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Terence Tao or Fields-medal mathematician publicly endorses AI proof candidate cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Clay Mathematics Institute publishes statement evaluating any AI-assisted submission cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — If ungranted by 2026-12-31, claim downgrades and probability decays toward 0.05 cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — OpenAI announces GPT-5.2 derives new theoretical physics result pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Peer-reviewed arXiv preprint with IAS/Cambridge/Harvard/OpenAI authors pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in dec pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Second AI-derived physics result published by different lab cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major physics journal accepts AI-derived result for publication cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI deprecates SWE-Bench Verified as too contaminated pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — Claude Mythos Preview crosses 90% on SWE-Bench Verified cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Long-horizon multi-day software-engineering benchmark crossed by Claude/GPT cascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Iterative self-improvement loop demonstrated on coding agent cascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 187 plotted · 17 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.