Timeline Fan

36 of 36 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Forked into 4 mutually-exclusive Robotaxi branches — each lane shows the claims that hinge on that scenario.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
050100S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 · prior 40% · avg shift ±1.7pp · Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026050100S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 · prior 45% · avg shift ±2.3pp · Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028050100S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 · prior 30% · avg shift ±7.2pp · Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030050100S_ROBOTAXI_DELAYED · prior 20% · avg shift ±1.0pp · Robotaxi mass deployment delayed past 2031history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mixed-fleet rideshare app standard becomes industry defaultpre #4 · pending · 2027-12-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AV market share remains <30% of rideshare miles in any major metropre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First non-rideshare hybrid AV deployment crosses 1M paid tripspre #1 · pending · 2028-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber confirms 20+ AV partnerships globally across freight, delivery, and robotaxispre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Uber/Pony.ai/Verne launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service in Zagrebpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Uber expands autonomous services to Hong Kong, Houston, Madrid, Zurichcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Uber launches Tokyo robotaxi pilot with Nissan and Wayvecascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-22 — Uber discloses operating in 15+ cities with AV partners on Q4 2026 earningscascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber confirms 20+ AV partnerships globally across freight, delivery, and robotaxispre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Uber/Pony.ai/Verne launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service in Zagrebpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Uber expands autonomous services to Hong Kong, Houston, Madrid, Zurichcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Uber launches Tokyo robotaxi pilot with Nissan and Wayvecascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-22 — Uber discloses operating in 15+ cities with AV partners on Q4 2026 earningscascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China multi-AV ecosystem: 4 robotaxi services compete in Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhoupre #5 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Zoox launches commercial robotaxi on Uber app in Las Vegaspre #4 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Combined non-Waymo AV providers operate >5K commercial vehicles in USpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — At least 5 distinct AV providers achieve commercial revenue >$100M annuallypre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First investor or analyst report values the autonomous mobility TAM at >=$1Tpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Waymo plus Tesla combined commercial robotaxi presence in >=20 metro areaspre #3 · pending · 2027-12-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Combined US autonomous mobility commercial revenue exceeds $5B annualizedpre #1 · pending · 2028-10-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Autonomous mobility marketplace recognized by mainstream press as multi-hundred-billion categorypre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo crosses 1 million weekly autonomous rides milestonepre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Waymo or Tesla operate driverless service in 20+ US metrospre #3 · pending · 2027-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — NHTSA publishes official AV crash-rate report showing safety advantagepre #1 · pending · 2028-08-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — US traffic fatality rate falls 10%+ from 2024 baselinepre #6 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — NHTSA issues Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) update with explicit AV safety-case thresholdpre #4 · pending · 2027-10-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Independent crash data shows AVs >=2x safer than human drivers on per-mile basis (peer-reviewed)pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-06 — Federal preemption framework replaces state-by-state AV patchworkcascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First state mandates AV-only routes/lanes during peak hours based on safety casepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla launches consumer-vehicle Unsupervised FSD to retail customerspre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NHTSA closes FSD traffic-safety investigation without enforcement actionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Cybercab production exceeds 5,000 units per quarterpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-01 — Human safety drivers fully removed from Tesla FSD backup role across all commercial fleetspre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla launches consumer-vehicle Unsupervised FSD to retail customerspre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NHTSA closes FSD traffic-safety investigation without enforcement actionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Cybercab production exceeds 5,000 units per quarterpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-01 — Human safety drivers fully removed from Tesla FSD backup role across all commercial fleetspre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First peer-reviewed AV safety study at 100M+ rider-only milespre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major insurance regulator approves AV-specific actuarial classpre #3 · pending · 2027-12-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — NHTSA publishes AV-fleet aggregate safety report endorsing safety-superiority claimpre #1 · pending · 2028-09-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First major auto insurer publishes AV-discount productpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Per-mile robotaxi fare drops below per-mile rideshare with human driverpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry-wide commercial auto liability premium index declinepre #1 · pending · 2028-09-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla, Zoox, Uber-Lucid-Nuro all simultaneously operating commercial robotaxi (multi-stack proof)pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-15 — NHTSA finalizes federal AV regulatory framework allowing multi-vendor competitionpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — 5+ AV stacks reach 100K+ rides/month independentlypre #2 · pending · 2028-06-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — International AV operators (Wayve UK, Baidu, Pony, Toyota) confirm US market entrypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AV fleets reach 10-20% of trips in operating citiespre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo fleet remains under 5K vehicles (vs ~250M US registered cars)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Average vehicle age in US passenger fleet remains >12 yearscascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Robotaxi share of US rideshare market reaches ~8% (Goldman target)pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Robotaxi cost-per-mile to consumer falls below $1.50 in any US marketpre #5 · pending · 2027-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Driverless rides exceed 1% of total US rideshare market sharepre #3 · pending · 2028-04-28 — Industry body or McKinsey publishes 'autonomous adoption curve >50% in developed markets by 2035' studypre #2 · pending · 2028-10-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Waymo or Tesla operates commercial robotaxi service in 4+ countries outside UScascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-25 — Autonomous becomes very big part of developed marketspre #6 · pending · 2027-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Zero major Latin American or African capital city has commercial driverless servicepre #4 · pending · 2028-01-12 — WEF or World Bank report flags AV-divide between developed and developing marketspre #3 · pending · 2028-02-29 — India publishes national autonomous-vehicle regulatory frameworkpre #2 · pending · 2028-10-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Uber's developing-market driverless ride share remains <2% by 2028cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-24 — Developing-market autonomous penetration delay confirmed by 2029pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotaxi fleets operate in 20+ markets across 10+ countriespre #5 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — US new-car sales decline 10%+ YoY in major metros with robotaxi servicepre #2 · pending · 2028-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Survey shows >25% of urban US adults consider not owning a car due to robotaxi accesspre #3 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — WeRide-Uber 1,200 robotaxi Middle East deployment substantially executed across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadhpre #4 · pending · 2028-01-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — WeRide-Uber expand from 3 of 15 contracted Middle East cities to >=8 citiespre #2 · pending · 2028-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — UAE/KSA robotaxi penetration on Uber app exceeds top US market share by AV-trip volumepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-18 — Tesla robotaxi unsupervised launch in Dallas/Houston (Apr 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First academic/industry study confirms autonomous fleets generating net-new ride demand (vs cannibalizing human drivers)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Combined Waymo+Tesla US robotaxi fleet >10,000 active vehiclespre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Uber/Lyft total US gross bookings >=10% above pre-AV-launch baseline trendpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-18 — Tesla robotaxi unsupervised launch in Dallas/Houston (Apr 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First academic/industry study confirms autonomous fleets generating net-new ride demand (vs cannibalizing human drivers)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Combined Waymo+Tesla US robotaxi fleet >10,000 active vehiclespre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Uber/Lyft total US gross bookings >=10% above pre-AV-launch baseline trendpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-18 — Tesla robotaxi unsupervised launch in Dallas/Houston (Apr 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First academic/industry study confirms autonomous fleets generating net-new ride demand (vs cannibalizing human drivers)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Combined Waymo+Tesla US robotaxi fleet >10,000 active vehiclespre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Uber/Lyft total US gross bookings >=10% above pre-AV-launch baseline trendpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-18 — Tesla robotaxi unsupervised launch in Dallas/Houston (Apr 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First academic/industry study confirms autonomous fleets generating net-new ride demand (vs cannibalizing human drivers)pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Combined Waymo+Tesla US robotaxi fleet >10,000 active vehiclespre #1 · pending · 2028-08-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Uber/Lyft total US gross bookings >=10% above pre-AV-launch baseline trendpre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Robotaxi fares hit 60% discount vs human-driven equivalent rides in mature marketspre #5 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Robotaxi available in >=20 US metros with sustained pricing competitionpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-23 — Personal car ownership rates begin measurable decline in robotaxi-saturated metrospre #1 · pending · 2028-11-07 — Average US ride-hail fare per mile crosses below $0.75 (sustained quarterly average)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber announces driver-to-fleet-manager onboarding pilot programpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First 1,000 driver-to-fleet-manager transitions documentedpre #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — AV financing product / loan vehicle available to former rideshare driverscascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Uber reports 10,000+ small-fleet-owner partners in AV economycascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Robotaxis surpass 5% of US ride-hailing rides nationallypre #3 · pending · 2028-10-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Major US auto manufacturer reports YoY decline in private vehicle sales attributed to AVpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Mainstream news outlets characterize 'autonomous revolution' as larger societal shift than ride-hailing erapre #6 · pending · 2027-12-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-28 — First US state passes legislation reducing driver-license testing or relaxing requirements due to AV adoptionpre #4 · pending · 2028-04-14 — Major US insurer launches 'driver-optional' or 'no-driver' policy productpre #3 · pending · 2028-10-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — US driver's license issuance rate to 16-19 year olds drops below 60%pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-30 — Driverless miles exceed 5% of total US light-vehicle miles traveled annuallycascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-27 — Cultural recognition of declining driver populationpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Waymo carries $5M primary liability + MedPay insurance layerpre #5 · pending · 2027-02-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First state codifies layered AV insurance structure into lawpre #3 · pending · 2027-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Product liability becomes routine third layer in major AV insurance disputespre #1 · pending · 2028-08-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — AV insurance market crosses $5B in annual premium volumepre #6 · hit · 2025-09-15 — Robotaxi cost projected 40% below Uber/Lyft by 2027pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber Autonomous Solutions launches with cost-per-mile reduction stated objectivepre #4 · pending · 2027-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First robotaxi market with average price <50% of human ride-hail equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Robotaxi market reaches $100B+ valuation by 2030pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Uber AV service deployed in ≥10 citiespre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — First charging-network operator reports ≥40% revenue from AV-fleet utilization guaranteestarget window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
30 plotted across 4 branches · 2 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to ALL.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.