Timeline Fan

89 of 89 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Click a symbol to scope to claims affecting that company

AMZN 89 KFY 89 MAN 89 RHI 89 TNET 89 ABBNY 57 ALNT 57 BYDDY 57 CGNX 57 FANUY 57 HSEHY 57 HYMTF 57 IFNNY 57 IRBT 57

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

89 plotted · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to TNET.

TNET-impacting (4)

235_019

ABBNY · ALNT · AMZN · BYDDY

Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.

65% → 13% · resolves 2027-06

-52pp

240_037

ABBNY · ALNT · AMZN · BYDDY

Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027

65% → 24% · resolves 2027-10

-41pp

229_002

ABBNY · ALNT · AMZN · BYDDY

Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers.

92% → 56% · resolves 2026-09

-36pp

241_056

ABBNY · ALNT · AMZN · BYDDY

Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down

65% → 32% · resolves 2026-06

-33pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.