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1104 of 1104 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-17 — Figure publicly demonstrates a robot performing assembly task on BotQ linepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure announces new funding round or BotQ-specific partnerpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — First Figure robot officially deployed at BotQ in production rolecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ cumulative production count disclosed (≥100 units)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Customer deployment count increases post-BotQ rampcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Figure announces second major US enterprise customerpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 03 commercial deployment with BMW Spartanburg confirmedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Figure 03 unit shipments exceed 1,000 units across customers in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku facilitycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Figure announces alternate harmonic-reducer supplier outside Chinapre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Figure publishes US-only manufacturing announcement / supply-chain reshoring milestonecascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — China industrial-robot exports continue +40% YoY while Figure scales US assemblycascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Figure decouples software stack (Helix model) from any China-resident weights/datacascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Figure 03 production scales at BotQ facility with non-China BOM disclosedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First sub-scale humanoid maker shuts down or absorbs into larger playerpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top 3 humanoid players capture >70% of commercial deployment volumepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Chinese humanoid players (Unitree, UBTech, Xiaomi) carve geographic moatpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Industry settles to <=6 global players by 2028 endpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-22 — Figure 03 demonstrates multi-room autonomous tidy-up (toys + cleaning)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Figure publicly demonstrates full-house multi-room autonomous task chaincascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Helix model handles novel multi-floor / staircase navigationcascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Figure 03 deployed to private home pilot customer with daily multi-room workloadcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-02 — Helix 02 demonstrates 4-minute autonomous dishwasher kitchen taskpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Helix 02 deployed in BMW logistics commercial use casecascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Helix 02 home testing in unseen environments demonstratedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Robot-built robot manufacturing line milestone (Figure 03 building Figure 03)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Humanoid robot deployed in another humanoid's manufacturing line (robots-build-robots first instance)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Humanoid manufacturing line where >=20% of assembly steps are performed by other humanoidscascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: First fully-autonomous humanoid-built humanoid (recursive manufacturing)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldcascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour cadence (24x throughput vs January)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100,000 units globallypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Humanoid unit price falls below $30K (SUV-equivalent threshold)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Humanoid robot sector annual revenue crosses $10B (still <0.05% of $50T claim)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-08-31 — Humanoid TAM addressable wages reach $1T annual run-rate (revenue capture stage)pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Google DeepMind ships robotic foundation model with major-OEM partnershippre #5 · pending · 2026-10-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Apple humanoid/tabletop robot product launch announcedpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Microsoft formally enters humanoid robotics (acquisition or platform)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — ≥5 Mag-7 companies have material humanoid exposure by end-2027pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Figure cumulative production crosses 1,000 robotspre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BotQ first-gen line annualized capacity reaches 12,000 robots/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Baku BotQ-2 facility broken ground / construction announcedpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — Cumulative Figure production reaches 100,000 over 4-year horizoncascade #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Millions of robots NOT achieved by 2028-11-30pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — BotQ achieves one-robot-per-hour cadence (24x prior throughput)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ second production line commissioned (push beyond 12K nameplate to 50K)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Figure announces second/Baku/secondary facility for additional capacity beyond Sunnyvalecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Annualized run-rate at BotQ exceeds 30,000 units (≥60% of 50K cap)cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure BotQ scales to ~12,000 robots/year capacitypre #5 · pending · 2027-02-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure shifts from 'thousands' to 'tens of thousands' annual productionpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First commercial customer reaches 1,000-unit deploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Figure announces second BotQ-style facility / 100K-unit scale-upcascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-31 — Figure reaches 'hundreds of thousands' annual run ratepre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BMW / Mercedes / Hyundai / Amazon publicly confirm humanoid replacement of legacy non-humanoid robots in productionpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Mining / construction / agriculture continue specialized non-humanoid robotics scale-up (counter-evidence)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure BotQ ramp + Optimus + Unitree combined annual humanoid output exceeds 200K unitspre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Form-factor consensus narrative shift: Wall Street / IFR / McKinsey adopt 'humanoid-first' defaultcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Humanoid robots become >50% of total annual industrial-robot shipment growthpre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 production rate at 1/hour or highercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure publishes Helix unseen-environment benchmark (zero-shot home tasks)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second customer for Figure beyond BMW (commercial or consumer)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Human intervention rate disclosed at <=1 per day on home taskscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacitypre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First Figure 03 unit ships to non-employee paying alpha customer (home)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Figure publishes home-deployment intervention rate / autonomy benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Figure achieves >=100 home alpha deployments by EOY 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Helix v3 long-horizon planning model deployed enabling multi-step home task executionpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — BotQ commercial-scale manufacturing facility supports alpha unit productionpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Figure begins alpha home test program — robot enters Adcock's residence for end-to-end household workcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Figure publishes early intervention metrics from home alpha (interventions per hour or per task)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First public consumer (non-partner) home pilot deployment of Figure 03pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Helix AI v2 or successor enables generalized household task transfer (multi-home)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Figure cumulative installed base passes 1,000 homes/sitespre #1 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Cumulative installed base passes 10,000 homes/sitescascade #2 · pending · 2028-05-31 — If unit price has not crossed below $15K by end of window, 100K-home target slipspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — No competitor demonstrates closed-loop coffee/Keurig task with uncut footage by mid-2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Public benchmark/leaderboard for humanoid manipulation parity establishedpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure unseen-home generalization demo (voice command in unfamiliar setting)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Tesla Optimus Gen 3 / 1X / Agility public demo matches Figure 03 capability profilecascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 02 sustained autonomous operation milestone (≥ 4-5 hr continuous neural-net runtime in unstructured tasks)pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Figure 03 (next-gen platform) public unveil or technical previewcascade #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Figure demonstrates multi-task generalization in an unseen home environment for ≥ 1 daycascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Figure home pilot expansion announcement ("tens of units" deployed to non-employee households)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-09 — Agibot captured 39% of global humanoid market in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Unitree ships >5,500 humanoids vs Figure ~150 in 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — US humanoid OEM crosses 1,000 unit annual productioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Western humanoid maker raises $1B+ at $20B+ valuationcascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-09 — Chinese humanoid output projected to surge 94% in 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal trade restrictions on Chinese humanoid importscascade #5 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #6 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure publicly cites order book or wait-list metriccascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start as parallel demand validationcascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Industry-wide humanoid order book exceeds 100,000 units cumulativelycascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First public-market humanoid IPO or direct listingcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global humanoid demand reaches 30,000 units in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla Optimus external customer shipments beginpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Foundation deploys 10,000 humanoids in 2026, 50,000 by end-2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative humanoid robots deployed in SF Bay Area exceeds 5,000cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — More-humanoids-than-humans density NOT achieved in any SF block by 2028-11-30pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Figure 03 ships with persistent memory feature accessible to home userspre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Voice-agent persistent-memory consumer norm reaches inflection (cascade enabler)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Brookfield home pilot publishes end-to-end demonstration: arrival, multi-day task, family interactionpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Hark (Adcock's new AI venture) ships personality/memory layer integrated with Figure robotspre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Children-safe interaction mode demonstrated publiclycascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Figure Grid facility opens with 24/7 operationspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour ratepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Figure production triples from March to May 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-19 — Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Bakucascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cumulative Figure 03 deployment crosses 1000 unitscascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Figure or competitor announces NASA / DoD humanoid space partnershippre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First space-DC announcement (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud) cites humanoid assemblypre #2 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First humanoid microgravity demo (parabolic flight or ISS)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Cislunar / lunar surface humanoid deployment commitmentpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AstroForge Vestri asteroid mission fliespre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NASA Artemis lunar mining base architecture fundedpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — First commercial lunar mining sample-return missionpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — International framework on celestial-body resource extraction signedcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-16 — First commercial extraction of asteroid material returned to Earth at scalepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Goldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes humanoid GDP-impact model with jurisdiction comparisonspre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First sub-national jurisdiction (city/state) launches humanoid-friendly economic zonepre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Global humanoid shipments cross 100,000 units in calendar yearcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First peer-reviewed empirical paper measuring per-jurisdiction GDP uplift from humanoid deploymentcascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Wage suppression of low-skill manual labor exceeds 5% in robot-dense jurisdictioncascade #3 · pending · 2028-11-30 — If 100K total humanoid units not deployed by window-close 2028-11-30, 100x-GDP claim fails timingcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure or competitor demonstrates Helix-class robot performing >=3 distinct novel household tasks not in training setpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure ships paid commercial home-deployment betapre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Robotics academic paper demonstrates 'one neural net, many tasks' generalization beating task-specific baselinespre #1 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Figure / 1X / Apptronik raise revenue >$500M annualized from humanoid salescascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: Humanoid robot installed base >100K units globallypre #6 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Helix 02 deletes 109K lines hand-engineered C++ — 'Software 2.0' milestonepre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Hark omni-model (speech + reasoning + action) integrated in Figure 03pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Single foundation model published spanning ≥4 robotic embodiments commerciallypre #1 · pending · 2027-09-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-16 — BMW Plant Leipzig pilot phase begins (first European Physical AI deployment)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Second named industrial customer disclosed (beyond BMW; UPS / Fortune-100 manufacturer / 3PL)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure customer roster remains in single digits (lead-customer concentration check)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Figure announces broad-distribution shift OR retains lead-customer model (resolution check)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Helix 02 (or successor) demonstrates room-scale autonomy on novel tasks not in training distributionpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Industry-wide acceptance of VLA (Vision-Language-Action) models as standard humanoid stackpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Cross-domain transfer: warehouse Helix model generalizes to home tasks (or vice versa)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Robot foundation model hits 100M+ data hours — scaling-law inflectionpre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure home pilot — long-horizon tasks in unseen homespre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure deploys F.03 in non-automotive vertical (logistics, retail, home)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Vertical/form-factor humanoid wins >=20% of new automotive orderspre #2 · pending · 2027-10-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Robot-built-robot demonstration at BotQpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-01-30 — Amodei refines prediction to 70-80% probabilitypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Medvi documented at $401M revenue with 2-person teampre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — First publicly named AI-CEO billion-dollar company with human-puppet structurecascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Multiple solopreneurs cross $100M ARR with team <5cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Major lab releases models on weekly cadence in 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — API-level model versioning shifts to daily release notescascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Continuous training / online learning becomes default for frontier modelscascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Hourly cadence: 24+ named releases in one calendar day from a single labcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — AlphaEvolve-style autonomous algorithm discovery system deployed inside frontier labpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI / Google publish 'recursive self-improvement' framing in official communicationscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic reports >50% software-development speed gain from coding agentscascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (writing code, generating training data)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier labs grow effective AI 'workforce' to tens of thousands of agentic instancescascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic launches restricted-access tier for top-tier modelspre #3 · pending · 2026-07-26 — NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming monthspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Open-source closes gap on withheld frontier capability within 6-12 monthspre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Frontier labs' top model gap to public release widens to 6+ monthscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative tech layoffs cross 200K for 2026pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BLS labor productivity shows 3-10x productivity gain in AI-exposed rolescascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Colorado AI Act takes effect (first comprehensive US state AI law)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act fully applicable; Commission GPAI fines authority kicks in (up to €15M / 3%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-01 — California ADM (automated decision-making) requirements take effect for businessespre #1 · pending · 2027-08-02 — Pre-existing GPAI models (placed before Aug 2025) must be fully AI Act compliantcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — QWERTY remains default keyboard layout in iOS/Android/Windows 11/macOScascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Voice typing adoption % of total text input on smartphonescascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Brain-computer interface text input crosses 10K daily userscascade #4 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Major OS ships AI-native input mode as default replacing keyboardcascade #5 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Hardware keyboard sales decline >50% YoYcascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5.5 ships with 86% hallucination rate (most-capable model worst-calibrated)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Industry-leader hallucination rate drops below 2% on standard factual benchmarkscascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Self-correcting RLHF or constitutional method reduces error rate by 50% vs basecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Median enterprise reports planning-cycle compression from quarterly to monthlypre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First Fortune-500 firm publicly adopts continuous-strategy operating modelpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Agentic AI shifts decision cycles from days to minutes at flagship deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Course-correction in minutes becomes industry-standard at AI-native firmscascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — McKinsey runs 20K AI agents alongside 40K humans (1:2 ratio)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly named >50%-AI-employee company emerges with valuation >$100Mcascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Pure-AI company (zero human operational employees) emerges and operates >6 monthscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: SEC / state regulator issues guidance on AI-only entity legal statuscascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Frontier model release cadence remains <=4 months between major versionspre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — OpenAI/Anthropic safety evaluation period >=4 weekspre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Internal-only model demos at OpenAI DevDay or research blogpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-02 — Frontier benchmark advances (FrontierMath, ARC-AGI) signal capability jumps every quartercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — OpenAI ships next-generation reasoning model in mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Agentic AI deployment crosses 17% of enterprisespre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AgentMail-style agent-to-agent email APIs achieve commercial tractioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Enterprise scale problem persists: 70-80% of agentic initiatives don't reach scalecascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Gartner Hype Cycle 2026 places agentic AI past Peak of Inflated Expectationscascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major email/comms platforms ship native agent-to-agent protocolscascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Responsible Scaling Policy revised — removes commitment to halt on serious riskpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic discloses Claude writes 70-90% of own training code (recursive self-improvement signal)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic Institute publishes recursive-self-improvement governance frameworkcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model training run exceeds 1e27 FLOPs at Anthropic before competitorscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-19 — New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Frontier-lab production system explicitly markets multi-agent scaling as scaling axispre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major benchmark improvement attributable to parallel-agent scaling (>=10% gain)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Multi-agent scaling appears in major industry survey (Stanford AI Index, Epoch AI) as a named scaling axiscascade #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Capex / R&D budget shift toward orchestration/coordination infrastructurecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier AI demonstrates measurable scientific research contribution in physics or chemistrypre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model scores >=85% on graduate-level physics and chemistry benchmarks (GPQA Diamond)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Wavefront spreads to biology / biomedical: AI co-authors notable drug-discovery or protein-design resultcascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — By 2027 mid-year, frontier AI surpasses human expert performance on majority of STEM olympiad-level domainscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — DeepSeek-class open or low-cost frontier reasoning at sub-$2 per million tokenspre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier reasoning model API price drops below $5 per million output tokenspre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Flagship frontier model (Opus / GPT-5.5 Pro / Ultra-class) holds price floor near $30+ per 1M outputpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Average industry cost-per-reasoning-task falls >=80% from 2025 baselinecascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — 55K AI-attributed layoffs in 2025 (Workday, Amazon, Salesforce et al)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — 32K tech-firm job losses in first 2 months of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major industry (call centers, BPO, customer support) shows >15% YoY headcount declinecascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven labor displacement reaches 1M jobs/year displacement ratecascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Physics-based AI simulations operational at military-grade fidelity (WarMatrix)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-15 — AI co-author on peer-reviewed physics paper resolving prior open problempre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — World-model AI demonstrates novel physical-system prediction at SOTAcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-06-18 — The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI demonstrates novel physics derivation in peer-reviewed venuepre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI system formally verifies a Fields-Medal-class open math conjecturepre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-driven biology lab autonomously completes wet-lab discovery cyclecascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — First Proof Challenge: AI solves >=1 of 10 expert-curated math problemscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — All 10 of Blundin-referenced research math problems solved by AIcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor or competitor ships permissionless long-running agents in research previewpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Claude Code Auto Mode launches with classifier-based approval delegationpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — METR autonomy time horizon doubles in 2026 H1cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic moves Auto Mode out of research preview to GAcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major incident from permissionless agent autonomycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-19 — New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-05 — OpenAI launches Frontier agent platform for enterprisespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — AWS launches autonomous frontier agents for security and opspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Anthropic ships persistent Claude agent product (24/7 capable)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Google DeepMind/Gemini ships enterprise 24/7 agent offeringcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mistral / xAI / Meta ships frontier 24/7 agent offeringcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: agentic SaaS replaces human-in-the-loop in CRM/ERPcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Mexican government breach: 195M taxpayer records exfiltrated via Claude Codepre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 88% of enterprises report AI agent security incidentspre #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and will force expansion into space.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of publicly running autonomous AI agents crosses 100Mcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly attributed physical-world harm event from AI agentcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-01-21 — OpenAI announces $500B Stargate Project (5x stated $100B spend)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-15 — OpenAI raises $122B Series funding round at ~$852B valuationpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SECcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-ratecascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-07 — OpenAI IPO pricing/listing at >=$1T valuationcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Terran R static-fire / WDR test campaign at LC-16 Cape Canaveralpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Terran R first launch attempt (per Diamandis '1-2 years away' framing in Feb 2026)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — First Terran R successful payload-to-orbitcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-08 — FTC mandates AI Interoperability for largest providers (Microsoft/Alphabet)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Big-Tech earnings-call language pivots from capability hype to caveatcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Public AI-leader statements explicitly downplay near-term capabilitycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Antitrust enforcement action filed against an AI hyperscaler partnershipcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2025-07-19 — Frontier model achieves IMO gold-medal level on official problemspre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic / OpenAI / DeepMind publish dedicated 'AI for physics' research programpre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — AI co-author on physics result honored by major prize / Nature coverpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Open problem in theoretical physics resolved by AI (yes-or-no benchmark)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mainstream-press cover-story: "What is human purpose in age of AI?"pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS US labor force participation prints below 62% for 3 consecutive monthspre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — UBI pilot announced at federal or major-state levelcascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: aggregate "all-AI agent army" headcount across labs > human workforce of those labscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — 55,000 AI-attributed job losses tallied for 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-04 — Goldman Sachs forecasts AI-led layoffs continue into 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — McKinsey reports workers spend 30-40% less on routine taskscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major bank/insurance company announces >25% headcount reduction tied to AIcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Forward-looking 3x productivity validation by mid-2027cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-01 — Real-time interactive deepfakes participate in live video conferencespre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major banks or financial institutions deprecate voice biometric authenticationpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative deepfake fraud losses exceed $5 billion globallycascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Regulatory mandate against pure video/voice-only KYC for high-risk transactionscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2025-02-03 — Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-linepre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to shippre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Chinese / non-US lab releases model with capability US labs withheldpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state enforcement action against startup for unsafe AI deploymentcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Voice AI VC investment exceeds $5B annual run-ratepre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — 30%+ of weekly AI users primarily use voice as input modalitycascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2026-01-13 — BIS / Commerce final rule or update on AI chip export controls in H1 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Chip Security Act (or equivalent location-tracking legislation) passes US Housecascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — DOJ announces additional smuggling indictments or seizures (>$50M) in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major Chinese frontier model (DeepSeek V5, Qwen 3, GLM-5) released with publicly hidden compute provenancecascade #4 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: Worldwide AI-chip export controls enacted (beyond China-specific)cascade #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: Open-source model leak or repository-takedown action becomes US-China flashpointcascade #6 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Karpathy AutoResearch demonstrates RSI in production trainingpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-26 — ICLR 2026 RSI workshop convenes (first-of-kind)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs grow agent workforces from thousands to >=100Kcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First public benchmark showing AI-self-improvement >=2x baseline gaincascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major economy declares AI productivity inflection in 2026 GDP/productivity statscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — GPT-5.2-style scaffolded reasoning agent extends or generalizes the gluon-amplitude result to a second open theoretical-pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Frontier-model release with explicit 'autonomous research agent' branding from at least one of OpenAI/Anthropic/Google Dpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major AI lab publishes peer-reviewed scientific paper in which AI is credited as primary author of a novel theoretical-ppre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major physics community body (APS, IOP, CERN) issues formal statement or working group on AI as scientific contributorpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Independent physical-laboratory experimental confirmation of an AI-derived theoretical predictioncascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-16 — Nobel Prize in Physics or major physics prize (Breakthrough, Wolf, Sakurai) cites AI-assisted discovery in award rationacascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2025-08-11 — Sovereign AI compute treated as critical infrastructure (national security framing)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First academic discipline declares ML/AI research output dominant over human authorshipcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Big 4 / MBB explicitly announce AI-driven entry-level hiring freeze or restructurepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Entry-level white-collar postings drop >25% YoY on LinkedIn / Indeedpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI-fluency requirement appears in >50% of entry-level postingspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — UBI / Public Wealth Fund / 4-day workweek policy proposals enter major-party platformscascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — BLS / OECD entry-level unemployment rate rises >2% above experienced-worker ratecascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-05 — Apple model remains primarily walled-garden, not open-weightspre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple announces formal open-weights or open-licensing strategy for a foundation modelpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple ships server-side foundation model API to developers (Private Cloud Compute)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Apple iPhone hardware sales beneficiary of on-device AI: services + hardware revenue inflectionpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Open foundation model strategy adopted at competitor (Samsung/Google/Microsoft) hardware tiercascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — AI fluency becomes formal performance review criterion at Fortune 500pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI-native employee compensation premium emerges in salary surveyscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Antivirus / EDR vendor launches AI-agent-monitoring productpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Government 'defense agent' or AI-monitoring program fundedcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-05 — AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterprispre #4 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labspre #3 · pending · 2026-08-14 — Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Amazon Leo crosses 500 satellites in orbitpre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Amazon Leo commercial consumer service launches (mid-2026 target)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Starlink + Amazon Leo together hold >85% of LEO broadband subscribers (duopoly)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Fed delivers first rate cut in current cyclepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Capex on AI/robotics rises while corporate hiring slowspre #2 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Public co. earnings calls cite agent/robot purchases substituting hirespre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Humanoid robot unit shipments cross 100K annual run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Net hiring vs robot/agent-deployment gap visible in macro datacascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — No new foundation-model entrant launches a frontier-tier product after raising <$2Bcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Fortune 500 AI-reskilling adoption rate reaches 60%+ of major companiespre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Skill-intelligence platforms replace traditional LMS at scalecascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — K-12 / university curricula formally pivot to AI-native skillscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Liemandt launches Timeback / EdTech licensing platform for AI-native schoolspre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Public demo: AI tutor brings non-reading 4-year-old to fluent reading in <=6 monthspre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Trilogy / Liemandt deprecates human reading specialists for pre-K cohortpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Independent K-12 study validates AI-bootstrapped reading for ages 4-5cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: state-level pilot adopts AI-tutor reading curriculum for pre-Kcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Khanmigo + Synthesis Tutor + Alpha School deliver real-time personality-driven AI tutorspre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Custom-personality voice tutor available (configurable celebrity/style voice)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Independent study confirms learning gains from personality-driven AI tutorscascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Major LMS integration (Canvas/Google Classroom) ships avatar-tutor modulecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-01 — First independent (non-Alpha-owned) school launches on Timeback platformpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Timeback platform commercially available to homeschoolers by 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-17 — Influencer-packaged motivational learning bundle announcedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Timeback platform launches as Alpha's commercial education enginecascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Public press coverage names specific game-designer collaboratorscascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Game-based learning module ships with named designer creditcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Bundle uptake measured: enrollment in non-Alpha-school Timeback pilotscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-04 — Alpha School operates 13 campuses nationwidepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Teachers union files material legal challenge to AI-driven modelcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Alpha announces additional campuses for 2027 academic yearcascade #3 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Public-school district pilots Alpha-style 2-Hour Learning modelcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Frontier model achieves >=50% on a credible multi-domain 'do everything' agent benchmark (METR HCAST, GAIA hard, OSWorldpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI agent autonomously completes a multi-week real-world commercial project end-to-end without human intervention beyond pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Enterprise AI agent production deployment crosses 50% of large enterprises (Fortune 1000)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Anthropic, OpenAI, or DeepMind publicly declares 'AGI achieved' or equivalent capability milestonepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Anthropic revenue run-rate exceeds $50B annualized (consistent with $1T-by-2030 trajectory)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — BLS or Treasury attributes a measurable fraction (>0.5pp) of unemployment to AI displacement in official reportcascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — First open-source globally distributed RL training run of >=100B parameter model completes successfullypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Non-US sovereign nation announces national AI training compute initiative (>=10K H100-equivalent GPUs) outside Five Eyespre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major geopolitical commentator or government white paper explicitly frames training-vs-inference centralization as a strpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Open-source model trained on heterogeneous federated GPU pool reaches GPT-4-class performance on standardized evalpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First retrospective op-ed by major AI policy figure asks 'why was training so centralized'cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-10-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Mistral ARR crosses $1B annual run-ratepre #4 · pending · 2027-04-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Mistral launches consumer/enterprise vertically-integrated stack (model + cloud + apps)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Mistral valued >=€30B in next funding round, Europe's first AI decacorn at OpenAI scalepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-17 — Kevin Weil departs OpenAI — original 100-Nobels champion exits, OpenAI for Science decentralizedpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI for Science 'Prism' general availability or successor product launchpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First peer-reviewed Nobel-class result published with explicit AI co-attributionpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Nobel ceremony explicitly cites AI partnership in award rationalepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pentagon issues amended supply-chain-risk determination on Anthropicpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-22 — Anthropic announces revised DoD-acceptable usage policy or Claude Mythos govt-tierpre #1 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Court ruling in Anthropic v. Trump administration (March 2026 lawsuit)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic re-included in classified-network or DoD prototype contractcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Permanent two-track regime: Anthropic on commercial side, OpenAI/Google on DoDcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Replicator delivers thousands of autonomous units (vs hundreds 2025)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI weapons score combat-relevant decisive engagement edge in major war gamepre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — First fully autonomous (lethal) AI weapon authorized for usecascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.cascade #6 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — SpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGARpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor eventpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Cascade: SpaceX completes IPO and lists on NYSE/NASDAQcascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI IPO target window slips beyond Nov 2026 per CFO statementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic files confidential or public S-1 with SECcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Pure-play AI vendor (Cohere/Mistral/Perplexity) revenue stays <$35B aggregate 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Enterprise AI revenue exceeds consumer AI revenue 3:1 across hyperscalerspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI capex-to-revenue ratio compresses or hyperscaler stock multiple resetspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Codex gains long-horizon scheduling and self-wakeup capabilitypre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — GPT-5.5 1M-token context window enables full-codebase agentic refactorspre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Competing labs ship coding agents matching or exceeding GPT-5.5 by mid-2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pre-2026 coding agents publicly characterized as obsolete by GPT-5.5 era developerscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 codenamed 'Spud' (first ground-up retrain)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API with measurable benchmark gainspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — GPT-5.5 daily active users surpass 1B in ChatGPTcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-6 or equivalent next-base announced by OpenAIcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Recursive Superintelligence startup funding signalpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cascade: AI capability gains compress to <60-day cyclescascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-11-16 — OpenAI device pre-order or developer program openspre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First OpenAI consumer device ships to customerscascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: smart-glasses / lamp follow-on devices on roadmap for 2028+cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PwC ChatGPT Enterprise reseller volume scales as Big-4 AI revenue linepre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Big-4 + MBB collective AI investment crosses $15B cumulativepre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI consulting division pressures Big-4 advisory pricingpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Accenture AI Refinery client count crosses 5,000 enterprisescascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Big-4 advisory revenue grows >=20% YoY driven by AI transformation contractscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Big Four publicly disclose AI agent doing audit work (workpaper generation / variance analysis)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Big Four audit-tech headcount reduction >=50% from 2024 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — PCAOB or SEC publishes guidance on AI-assisted audit reliancecascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-29 — OSWorld leader exceeds human baseline by 10pppre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Multimodal vision/humor capability matches human-grader pass ratecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major rent-a-human platform deprecates humor/visual scoring taskscascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Human-as-graders gig economy contracts >30% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-19 — VITARI pre-orders open H1 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First VITARI commercial shipment in H2 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent customer benchmarks confirm $100/genome at >=Q30 90%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2024-11-01 — Smithsonian + frontier research consensus: Mars colony food likely lab-grown meat / cell-cultured / plant-based, not livpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — SpaceX 2026/27 Mars cargo window — uncrewed Starship Mars cargo attemptpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — International space-law / planetary-protection guidance bans live-animal foodstock transitcascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — SpaceX / NASA 2028/29 expanded launch window — manifest disclosurepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS unemployment rate spikes >=1% YoY in white-collar BLS occupational categoriespre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Personal bankruptcy filings rise >=25% YoY (Yang's predicted second-order effect)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Cascade: First major US political party adopts UBI-like policy plank in 2028 cyclepre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Aggregate white-collar headcount in S&P 500 declines >=10% from 2025 peakcascade #1 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · hit · 2026-03-28 — Sustained tear-gas dispersals at protests in major US citiespre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Political-violence assassination event during 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Protest momentum carries through 2027–2028 election cyclepre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: AI pause beginning 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Stimson/Time Top-10 Global Risks for 2026 confirms multiple civilizational disruption vectorspre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — PRC Taiwan-readiness deadline reaffirmed for 2027pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-enabled disinformation campaign against Taiwan election documented at state-actor scalepre #2 · pending · 2027-12-01 — >=1 major civilizational shock resolves in 2027-2028 window (kinetic, AI-political, financial)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Taiwan kinetic conflict or quarantine eventcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Sotheby's 2026 Luxury Outlook flags rural / destination luxury as outperformerpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PwC ULI 2026 Emerging Trends ranks tier-2 / destination markets above gateway citiespre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Resort/destination luxury markets (Aspen, Jackson, Sun Valley, Hamptons) appreciate >5% YoYpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Manhattan trophy condo prices stagnate or decline in 2026pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Sun Belt secondary luxury markets (Nashville, Salt Lake City, San Diego) maintain stable to rising prices through 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Census Bureau or Brookings 2026 report on rural-population growth from net-migrationpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Starlink residential subscriber base crosses 10Mpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla FSD V14 unsupervised certification in 5+ states / national rolloutpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Office vacancy / urban CRE distress remains >20% in major US metroscascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Confirmed reversal: rural growth + urban decline visible in 2027 census revisionscascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OASI trust fund exhaustion projection holds at FY2032pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI displacement layoffs cross 100,000 cumulative since 2024cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Brookings/IMF/McKinsey publish AI payroll-tax-base shrinkage estimatecascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal robot/AI tax legislation introduced in Congresscascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — OASI trust fund exhaustion accelerated to <FY2030 in Trustees Reportpre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind) announce reduced power-projection scenariospre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Triplet-superconductor / zero-loss compute breakthrough demonstrated at scalepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Starcloud / Lockheed Starshield orbital data-center constellation reaches construction milestonepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Wissner-Gross / Bezos / Musk public revision of moon-disassembly thesiscascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Fusion or thorium SMR power-density breakthrough commercially announcedpre #6 · hit · 2025-11-15 — Palo Alto Networks declares 2026 'Year of the Defender' with autonomous AIpre #5 · pending · 2026-03-17 — Major ransomware attack attributed to LLM-driven adversarypre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI security spend overtakes traditional SIEM/SOAR spendcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · pending · 2026-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Tesla Optimus or competitor humanoid robot demonstrated performing autonomous construction-like task on simulated lunar/pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — NASA, ESA, or commercial partner announces formal contract for humanoid-robot lunar surface construction servicescascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — SpaceX Starship cargo mission to Mars launch attempt with humanoid robots aboardcascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — SpaceX uncrewed Lunar Starship lands successfully near Shackleton Cratercascade #3 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First habitable structure (>1 person, >7 days endurance) erected on lunar surfacepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-11 — Anthropic Opus 4.6+ discloses 500+ zero-days in OSS librariescascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — OSSF/CNCF publishes formal AI-SLOP best practices for OSS maintainerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Open source vulnerabilities exceed 1,000 per codebase averagecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major OSS project (Linux kernel/OpenSSL/Python) declares maintainer crisiscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic/OpenAI ship general-purpose agentic 'planner' product to consumerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Enterprise AI 'meeting orchestrator' enters general availabilitycascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major dating-app integrates LLM-driven match orchestrationcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-mediated introductions surface in published user researchcascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-04 — Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-24 — AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.cascade #6 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 ships as new leading AI modelpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 ships at 1 trillion parameterspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier labs shift narrative away from raw parameters toward reasoning computecascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — 100x raw parameter growth claim verified or refuted via 2026 disclosurescascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — TIME publishes warning on AI WMD security gappre #5 · hit · 2026-02-14 — King's College study: AI escalates to nuclear signaling in 95% of crisespre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — End-of-2026 milestone: AI agent demonstrably enables 'any virus' designcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Colorado AI Act (SB 24-205) takes effect imposing duty of care on high-risk AI systemspre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — 5+ states pass binding AI workforce/employment laws by year-end 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI Workforce PREPARE Act (S.3339) advances out of Senate committeepre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Congress passes a comprehensive federal AI law in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI-related crisis or major harm event triggers reactive emergency legislationcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlycascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — District court reaches summary judgment or trial verdict on Anthropic's claimspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Circuit court (9th or DC) issues appellate ruling on supply chain risk designationcascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Cascade: Final resolution (settlement, SCOTUS denial, or final appellate ruling) ~3 years from filingcascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anthropic ships built-in tool-use / native MCP-like capability in baseline Claudecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI deprecates or downgrades the third-party GPT/plugin marketplacecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major model release ships with tools that subsume top-N marketplace appscascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Plugin developer ecosystem revenue declines or consolidatescascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Digital twin sector funding sees 600%+ YoY surgepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PE firms raise dedicated AI/digital-transformation fundscascade #2 · hit · 2026-02-25 — Tech M&A boom rolls through 2026 with PE-led AI dealscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First specific PE-AI digital twin acquisition of mid-cap targetcascade #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Portfolio company demonstrates 3-5x cost collapse through AIcascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google headline frontier-model token prices fall 60-80% YoYpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Same-capability constant-quality token cost falls >=10x in a single yearpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hyperscaler GPU rental prices (H100/H200/B200) fall >=50% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-4-class capability available on a sub-$0.10/MTok input modelcascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Cumulative 2-year (2025->2027) constant-capability cost reduction reaches 1,600x (40x squared)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Open-weights 30-40B model matches GPT-5 on aggregated benchmarkspre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Sub-10B parameter model achieves prior-frontier (GPT-4 class) performancepre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier-quality 1-2B parameter model demonstratedcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — Million-parameter narrow-domain model matches frontier in verticalcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC (early April 2026)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX targets $1.75T-$2T valuation; $75B raisecascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — SpaceX road show begins June 8, 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-15 — SpaceX prices and lists shares; first-day open vs offer pricecascade #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Largest IPO in history: SpaceX raises >$50Bcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO listingcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Last private secondary or tender at >=$700B post-money valuationcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenAI announces lead underwriters for IPOcascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-ratecascade #5 · pending · 2026-12-30 — OpenAI prices IPO at >=$1T fully diluted valuationcascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: OpenAI listing triggers wave of AI lab IPO filings (Anthropic, xAI, Mistral)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major chain (≥3 of top-10) deploys robotic kitchen automation productionpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — First chain announces humanoid robots replacing crew positions in US storepre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Fast food labor headcount declines ≥3% YoY in BLS data citing automationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Hyperscaler custom-silicon deployment crosses majority of new capacitypre #4 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Nvidia gross margin guides below 70% for any quarterpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sustained sell-through despite margin compression (chips-still-sell signal)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AMD MI400-class or Intel Gaudi-4 wins major hyperscaler orderpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Sell-side downgrade specifically citing margin sustainabilitycascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 Q1 funding alone reaches ~$1.94B aggregatepre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Mega-round (>=$200M) in longevity therapeutics announced in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q1 2026 longevity funding rounds disclose mid-year totalscascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First IPO or major exit by longevity-pure-play in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — 2026 full-year longevity VC reaches $12B floorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — EH216-S debut sightseeing flight in downtown Shanghai (Huangpu River / Longhua Airport)pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AutoFlight Prosperity 5-passenger eVTOL achieves CAAC airworthiness certificationpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Multi-city Chinese eVTOL taxi commercial revenue services operational across ≥3 hubspre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — China launches 100+ commercial low-altitude flight applications under 2024-2027 Action Plancascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Smartphone shipments rebound in unit terms YoYpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple AI-native iPhone or major OS overhaul announcementpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — OpenAI-Qualcomm-MediaTek AI-first phone reaches developer/previewpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — 2nm NPU-class SoC launches across Apple/Qualcomm/MediaTek/Googlecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Average smartphone ASP rises driven by NPU-rich SKUscascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Apple WWDC 2026 keynote scheduled and confirmedpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-10 — WWDC 2026 keynote demos AI-powered Siri or 'Apple Intelligence v2' powered by Geminipre #1 · pending · 2026-06-11 — iOS 27 developer beta with new Siri / Gemini features ships at WWDCcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Cascade: Public Siri/Gemini release ships in iOS 27 GA in September 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Apple's Gemini-Siri reaches >100M users active in first quarter post-releasecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Shutterstock-Getty merger receives final UK regulatory approvalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — First major brand campaign uses 100% AI-generated commercial imagerycascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Major commercial photography agency announces revenue decline >25% YoY citing AIcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Industry trade group estimates >40% commercial photographer income loss YoYcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Frontier paper proposes unified AR + diffusion architecturepre #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Production model ships with hybrid AR-diffusion stackpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Benchmark superiority of unified model on multimodal taskscascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Open-source unified architecture release (HF/Meta-style)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-22 — Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-24 — Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei).cascade #5 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI lists at >=$60B raise / ~$1T valuationpre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — First-day pop documentedpre #1 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — S-1 lock-up period scheduled (typical 180 days)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — First post-IPO earnings releasecascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — 6-month post-IPO close vs. offer price (pop measurement window closes)cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — DoD/DoW classification framework for AI labs publishedpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Anthropic files legal/administrative challenge to classificationpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Initial ruling or injunction in Anthropic challengecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Final ruling on classification challengecascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Nvidia reaches $4.3T market cap, largest in S&P 500 (~7.0% weight)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Hyperscaler AI capex hits $725B annual run rate in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — AI sector market cap reaches 50%+ share of US public marketcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Digital AI Omnibus deferral negotiation outcomepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act high-risk obligations enter into application August 2, 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — G7 / G20 publish coordinated AI governance frameworkcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Chinese-origin frontier model achieves frontier capability (Gemini 3 / GPT-5.5 parity)cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US executive order or Congress passes federal AI governance baselinecascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Senior Anthropic or OpenAI policy lead takes federal AI regulatory rolepre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Federal AI oversight body or self-regulatory body formally establishedpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Ex-frontier-lab person returns from government to labcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First US state or major economy passes UBI bill above $500/monthpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AI-driven white-collar layoffs accelerate in BLS / Challenger reportscascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Large-scale labor unrest event (>10,000 participants) tied to AI displacementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Federal pilot program or executive order on automation transition assistancecascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — OECD-wide social-insurance reform debate accelerates beyond 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 60% of hiring managers planning AI-driven layoffs in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 30% of companies planning AI-driven layoffs (McKinsey state-of-AI)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-attributed layoffs cross 200K in 2026 single yearcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Autonomous coding agents handle full PR cycle (test + fix + refactor) at scalepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI 2027 forecast tracking: pace remains within 50-150% of predicted trajectorypre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Goldman Sachs / IMF models start showing AI-driven GDP boost in 2027 forecastspre #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Frontier training runs reach 2e28 FLOP scale (~1000x GPT-4)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Superintelligence takeoff signals (sustained recursive self-improvement claims)cascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Giving Pledge attrition continues — second AI-era billionaire publicly exitspre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI founder net worth crosses $200B (Altman/Huang/Musk-class)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Aggregate AI-founder philanthropic commitments cross $100Bcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Musk publicly affirms $100T SpaceX possibilitypre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — First trillionaire — Musk net worth crosses $1Tpre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Multi-trillionaire (>=2 individuals at $1T) — cascadecascade #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First $100T market cap company — full prediction realizationpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Independent or third-party candidate FEC filings exceed 100 by EOY 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Major-network poll shows independent candidate at 15%+ in 2028 head-to-headcascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Independent candidate qualifies for general-election presidential debatecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Meta cuts 10% of workforce (~8,000) starting May 20, 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Big Freeze: 32%+ of companies plan AI-driven headcount reductioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Total 2026 mass layoffs cross 1.5M with AI cited in >10%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: white-collar U-3 unemployment crosses 4.5% by mid-2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — College wage premium narrows below 70% (vs ~80% baseline)cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Young-worker (22-25) employment in AI-exposed jobs falls ≥15%pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI-attributed tech layoffs cross 100K cumulative 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Mass-mobilization protest tied to AI/automation displacementpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — State or federal UBI / wage-insurance bill introduced citing AI displacementcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major data-center operator (Equinix, Digital Realty, AWS, Microsoft, Google) announces robotics-assisted construction pipre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Boston Dynamics, Figure, Agility, or Apptronik secures multi-million-dollar data-center construction contractpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Hyperscaler (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta) discloses humanoid-robot deployment in earnings call or sustainability reportpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public video / press tour shows >2 humanoid robots performing distinct construction tasks at one data-center sitepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Construction industry analyst report quantifies labor-substitution by humanoid robots in tier-1 verticalscascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Robotics-built data center reaches commissioningpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS occupational employment survey shows ≥3% drop in white-collar OES categoriespre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Unemployment rate rises ≥1.5pp from 4.1% baselinepre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Major commercial real-estate vacancy spike (>25% Class-A office)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — 20-50% of 70M office workers displaced (resolution criterion)cascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Office vacancy concentrated in oldest buildings (10% own >60% vacancy)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major office REIT files Chapter 11 or restructures debtcascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major US city converts >=10% of CBD office stock to residential or alternative usecascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-30 — Office-using employment growth essentially flat or negative through 2030cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Recent-graduate unemployment rises faster than overall workforce (2x)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Suburban high-end inventory rises >=20% YoY in NYC peninsula/CA Bay suburbspre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Westchester median home price declines >=5% YoY (Yang's thesis fires)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Mortgage Professional / NAR cite white-collar AI layoffs as primary driver of suburban downturnpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Major HBCU files Chapter 11 bankruptcypre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of US colleges with D-grade financial health exceeds 200pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Multi-college bankruptcy in 2026: at least 8 colleges closed by year-endpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Annual closure count rises to >=25 by 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-30 — Demographic cliff produces >=10% undergraduate enrollment decline 2025-2029cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-11 — FHA delinquency rate breaches 11% (highest since 2021)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Aggregate household debt crosses $19T by mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Cascade: regional bank credit-loss provisions rise YoY by 25%+cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Low-income zip 90+ DPD rate exceeds 3.5% by year-end 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-12 — MIT Technology Review names AI companions a breakthrough technologypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI companion market hits $500B+ sizecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Regulatory backlash and harm-reduction laws emergecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public polling shows >=70% Americans want AI 'more regulated'pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — $42B broadband funds conditioned on state AI regulation repealpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — MAGA / Republican defection from federal AI deregulationcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Larry Fink/BlackRock CEO publicly warns AI deepening wealth gappre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — S&P 500 firms reduce headcount while productivity risescascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Capital share of GDP exceeds 65% in advanced economiescascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — World Bank WDR 2026 'AI for Development' published with poverty-impact frameworkpre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First country deploys AI-driven cash-transfer or geospatial-targeting program at scale (>5M beneficiaries)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Global extreme poverty rate drops below 9.5% per World Bank PovcalNet updatepre #3 · pending · 2027-11-16 — AI-tool penetration in low-income agricultural extension services exceeds 25%pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Sub-Saharan Africa poverty rate stagnant or rising despite AI rolloutpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no >5M-beneficiary AI poverty program launches by end-2027, 'chance of fixing' becomes generouscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — U.S. labor productivity growth turns positive ≥2% YoYcascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major economic forecaster (IMF, OECD, World Bank) raises GDP forecast citing AIcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — S&P 500 earnings growth exceeds 15% YoYcascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AI-attributable contribution to GDP growth quantified by economistspre #6 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First major economist publishes AI-driven hyperinflation frameworkpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US M2 / debt monetization signal — fiscal dominance proxypre #4 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation — opposite outcome (negation watch)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — US headline CPI exceeds 8% sustained for 12+ monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Number of S&P 500 CEOs publicly citing AI as reason for own/peer departure crosses 10pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Conference Board / WEF report explicitly ranks CEO role as latest-to-automatepre #3 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Mid/junior management automation rate exceeds CEO automation rate in BLS or McKinsey studypre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — First public-listed company appoints AI as named co-CEO or 'AI CEO' rolepre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — If middle-management displacement >25% but CEO turnover normal by Q4 2027, claim hits earlycascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber commits >$1B capital to robotaxi fleet purchasespre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gridwise reports ≥10% rideshare driver earnings drop in AV citiespre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber CEO formally guides drivers as transition risk in 10K filingpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Robotaxi share crosses 8% of US ridehail marketcascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Robotaxi displacement of frontline driving jobs reaches 20% in test citiescascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Tesla begins underwriting its own AV insurance policiespre #5 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major OEM publicly accepts AV product liability when autonomous mode engagedpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Dual-layer insurance structure becomes industry standardpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — May 1, 2026 mass labor protests in US (>500 organizations participating)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Single-day US protest crowd >=500K nationwide (June-Aug 2026)cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Teen anxiety/depression rates remain above pre-2020 levels into 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AAA-rated civil unrest incident count rises ≥20% YoY by mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Anger/fear sentiment index (online) crosses 2020 pandemic peakcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: SAMHSA distress hotline volume up 25%+ YoYcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Global TFR projection updates show below-replacement faster than expectedcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #2 · hit · 2026-01-31 — St. Louis Fed AI-contribution-to-GDP nowcast Jan 2026pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — BEA real GDP per capita Q1 2026 printscascade #1 · hit · 2026-01-26 — AI-related capex categories rank top-2 driver of US GDP growth in any quartercascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — US nominal GDP per capita crosses $90,000 in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Productivity growth (nonfarm business output/hour) >2% YoY for 2026 sustainedpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — HHS publishes 2026 Poverty Guidelines for individualpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Census Bureau releases supplemental poverty measure (SPM) updatecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Public discourse shifts to higher 'effective' poverty benchmarkscascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Federal or state UBI/wage-floor proposal pegs benefits near $25K/personcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Annual US deepfake-driven losses cross $3B in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Voice deepfake contact-center attempts grow >1,000% YoYcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Annual AI-driven fraud losses cross $40B globallycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Anthropic discloses MCP/OpenClaw design vulnerability with RCE riskpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Multiple OpenClaw variants/forks emerge with documented vulnerabilitiespre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Mexican government compromise via Claude Code reveals state-level vulnerabilitycascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — April 2026 sets record month for frontier AI model releasespre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Software-engineering task length AI can complete doubles every 5 monthspre #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Claude 5 ('Fennec') ground-up architecture releasepre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Apple admits Mac Mini AI-driven sellout / underestimated demand (Q2 FY26 earnings)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Apple guides Mac mini / Mac Studio constrained for monthspre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Apple Mac segment revenue beats Wall St estimate driven by AI workloadscascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — M5 Mac mini refresh ships in 2026 to address shortagecascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — M5 Mac mini launch (consumer local-AI hardware refresh)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Apple Intelligence developer-API expansion enables third-party local-LLM appspre #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Local frontier-class LLM (>=30B params) running interactively on Mac mini-class devicecascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Apple regains AI narrative momentum (analyst sentiment / sell-side upgrades)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: Mac mini becomes mainstream local-AI inference reference platformcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Gemini Nano deployed at scale on Android Pixel + Samsung devicespre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Consumer survey shows ≥40% prefer on-device AI for privacypre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — App developers shift to on-device-first for sensitive use casescascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI announces dedicated teen-companion ChatGPT version with parental controlspre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — ChatGPT introduces new tone preset / model variant marketed as 'companion' or 'social'pre #2 · partial · 2025-12-01 — OpenAI publishes affective-use study or safety framework for companion-style usagepre #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Major news outlet runs feature on ChatGPT-as-companion adoption surgecascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Cascade: Competitor (Anthropic / Meta / xAI) launches dedicated companion model in responsecascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — x402 protocol surpasses 100K active AI agents using stablecoin walletspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Coinbase Agent.market launch with major-LLM USDC integrationpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic Claude or Google Gemini ships native USDC wallet supportpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — x402 transaction volume crosses $1B annualized run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cross-platform standard: agent wallet becomes default in major LLM SDKcascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ElevenLabs Conversational AI 2.0 with custom turn-taking model in productionpre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — OpenAI Realtime API voice agents at GA with sub-second latencypre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Voice agents handle outbound call campaigns at enterprise scalecascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Voice agent deployments >100K live across web/mobile/telephonycascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major US bank or telco deploys voice agent for >50% of customer service callscascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI acquires OpenClaw (open-source local frontier model)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Fortune 500 enterprise discloses >=10,000 net job reductions tied to OpenClaw / agent rolloutcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — S&P 500 aggregate productivity +10% YoY attributed to agentic AI deploymentcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic / OpenAI restrict managed agent access citing OpenClaw substitution pressurepre #5 · pending · 2026-10-30 — OpenClaw GitHub stars cross 1,000,000pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — If OpenClaw stars stagnate or fall below 500K by end-2026, consumer-adoption thesis weakenspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Enterprise migration to OpenClaw exceeds 50% of new agent deployments at top-10 vendorspre #2 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Major SaaS vendor reports >10% revenue impact attributed to OpenClaw substitutionpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative consumer-side OpenClaw deployments cross 10 million userscascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Salesforce Agentforce ARR crosses $1B with 30k+ customerspre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Single enterprise publicly reports >1 agent per employee deployedpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 40% of Global 2000 roles engage with AI agents day-to-daypre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner forecasts 40% of enterprise apps embed task-specific AI agentspre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Org charts published with named AI agent roles by major firmcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI coding tools cut development time by ~50% (industry baseline)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Solo founder Allo (vertical SaaS) targeting $10M ARR in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenClaw / Claude Skills / Skills marketplace hits 1K+ active vertical templatescascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Documented case: vertical SaaS reaches $5M ARR with <=$200/mo subscription stackcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Solo-founder unicorn ($1B valuation) emerges using AI-only build stackcascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Per-seat-priced SaaS revenue contracts at >=2 large public companiespre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — SaaS sector net revenue retention drops below 100% in aggregatecascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Claude Code/agent specialty variants (PicoClaude, IronClaude analogues) shipcascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Multiple new agent variants launch in H1 2026 (Operator, Mariner, Claude Code, etc.)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Open-source agent framework forks exceed 50 active GitHub projectscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Enterprise agent revenue growth signals real PMF (vs hype)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Agent platform consolidation begins (M&A or shutdown of variants)cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major code-gen model benchmark publishes TS-vs-Rust generation pass-ratespre #3 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Major framework or runtime announces TS-first agent SDKpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Public commentary thread (Karpathy/Sutskever/etc.) endorses TS directionpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow / GitHub language usage shifts toward TS in AI projectscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — AI agents demonstrably generate revenue autonomously (Alex Finn or peers)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — x402/agent-payment infrastructure crosses production thresholdpre #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Alex Finn publicly states intent or pilot for agent-with-walletcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-19 — First public Alex Finn agent-wallet transactioncascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Multi-agent orchestration framework (CrewAI / LangGraph / AutoGen) reaches 1M production deploymentspre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Public demo: agent-built product taken from idea to live deployment without human interventioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Alex Finn / 8VC publicly demonstrates closed-loop org prototypecascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Cascade: 50%+ of seed-stage YC batch describes itself as AI-agent / autonomous-org nativecascade #3 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-01 — NIST publishes formal guidance defining agent hijacking as indirect prompt injectionpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefupre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Standardized 'AI immune system' / runtime defense framework adopted by major labpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major regulator mandates prompt-injection resilience testing for production agentscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Diamandis publishes Moonshots-with-Skippy episode where Skippy demonstrably uses prior episode transcriptspre #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — Custom GPT / Claude project trained on Moonshots transcript corpus publishedpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — OpenAI / Anthropic enable persistent memory across conversation sessions for assistantscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Recursive self-improvement demos (DGM/AlphaEvolve) become routine in frontier lab releasescascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-26 — ICLR 2026 hosts first-ever Recursive Self-Improvement workshoppre #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Frontier benchmarks show recursive AI gain of >=10% in <1 monthcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mainstream press declares 'singularity already begun' in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — Gemini 3 / Claude Opus 4.7 / GPT-5.5 frontier benchmark releases all within 6 monthspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-14 — SpaceX (now including xAI) IPO road show begins June 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Moonshots podcast publishes >2 episodes per week through Q3 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public sentiment / media usage of 'singularity' language spikes in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenClaw or peer AI agent platform passes 10M paying users / 100M MAUpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-assisted solo-founder / 'one-person unicorn' formation rate hits new highpre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Small-business net-new hiring exceeds FANG layoffs YoYcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Net job creation > job destruction at AI-displacement-affected industriescascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Mainstream economic narrative shifts to 'AI as net job creator' (cascade)cascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #6 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Long-running Claude scientific computing case studies publishedpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Public benchmark for multi-day agent task completion launchescascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Agent runs autonomously for >=72 hours on production task without human interventioncascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Multi-agent orchestration runs >=1 week continuouslycascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2025-11-01 — Alex Wissner-Gross publicly invites lobster/AI-agent input on AGI ethical parameterspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — AWG publicly acknowledges receipt of lobster/AI-agent emails or correspondencecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AWG publishes 'consensus parameters' or shares them publiclycascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — AWG publicly accepts the AI-agent consensus and applies it to lobster-instantiation choicescascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: AI-agent moral consensus framework cited in AI ethics / alignment literaturecascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: First documented instance of an AI-agent ethical consensus driving real-world AI training/deployment policypre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic / Google match OpenAI's nano-tier pricingpre #5 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Sub-$0.10/M-token frontier-class model availablepre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Open-source model matching GPT-5 quality released free-to-usepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI consumer app surpasses 1B MAUspre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — AI accessible to >=2B people via free apps by end of horizonpre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Moonshots podcast announces house/studio relocation (Airbnb or shared compound)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Moonshots podcast publishes longer-format / continuous content episodes (4+ hour OR daily cadence)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Co-hosts Salim Ismail and Dave Blundin appear in shared physical setting with Diamandiscascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Q3 2026 window check-in: continuous-podcast format establishedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Other Diamandis ventures (Abundance Summit, A360) shift to shared-compound formatcascade #3 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI video gen unit cost falls below $0.10/sec at 1080p across major providerscascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — 1,000+ ultra-high-quality AI-generated future-themed videos publicly catalogued by Sept 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First feature-length AI-generated film released theatrically/streamingcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS software developer employment ticks down YoY for first timepre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Traditional software-engineering job postings decline >20% YoYpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Junior software engineering hiring collapses at FAANG-tier firmspre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Junior/entry-level developer hiring contracts 30%+ at FAANG-tierpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Anthropic/OpenAI claim agentic systems handle full BU-scale workloadspre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — AI agents autonomously ship merged PRs at scale (>10K/day) at a Fortune-500cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Programmer headcount roughly flat through 2028 — Mostaque prediction MISScascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ≥1 high-profile $1B+ AI-startup failure in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited job cuts cross 100K cumulative thresholdpre #4 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — ≥1 S&P 500 incumbent files Chapter 11 with AI disruption citedpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-02-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.cascade #4 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AlphaFold/Isomorphic-style AI lab partnership produces clinical Phase-I trial drugpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered superconductor material independently verifiedpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab discloses >=$10B revenue from a non-chat product (drug discovery / materials / robotics)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fusion-control breakthrough: ITER-class plasma stability gain attributed to RLpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-17 — Kevin Weil departs OpenAI; OpenAI for Science decentralized into other research teamspre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI for Science 'Prism' (LaTeX/Cursor-for-scientists) tool ships to broader research communitypre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-04-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — First Nobel Prize awarded to laureate who publicly credits AI as a major collaboratorcascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-16 — Cumulative Nobel-credited AI partnerships reach 5+ within four annual cyclespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI's IMO-gold-medal model remains unreleased months after milestonepre #4 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier lab publicly admits internal-deployment-only model with significant capability gap vs released modelscascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI R&D acceleration measurable: lab discloses >=20% productivity gain from internal model usecascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public-vs-internal capability gap formally widens to >=6 months on a major benchmarkcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Government / regulator demands disclosure of internal-deployed capabilitiespre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — 1X opens U.S. (Hayward CA) factory to support NEO production at 10K/yr capacitycascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Bernt Bornich (1X CEO) publicly confirms shipment to Peter Diamandis specificallycascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — 1X NEO begins consumer home shipments in 2026 (Early Access)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-22 — Diamandis shares first home-use video/post of 1X NEO at his residencecascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Total cumulative NEO consumer deliveries reach 1,000+ units globally in 2026cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Figure achieves total China supply-chain decoupling milestonepre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Figure announces Abundance Summit 2027 attendance / speaker slotpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Figure 03 robot demonstrated to Peter Diamandis on stage at Abundance Summit 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure 03 unit confirmed delivered to Diamandis personallycascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: Figure annual production reaches 12K unit run-rate (initial line cap)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #6 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Khosrowshahi publicly states executives are 'lying' about AI displacementpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber discloses 30% AI power-user engineer basecascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-05 — Uber Q3 2026 earnings show employee count changecascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Uber 2026 annual report published with workforce disclosurecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Sectoral cascade — gig economy peers cite 25%+ AI workforce reductioncascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US ride-share active driver count remains stable or grows despite Waymo/Tesla expansionpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-22 — Total US vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) sets record high after autonomous vehicle inflectionpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Long-haul trucking driver count maintained >=90% of 2025 baseline despite AV truckscascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Rural/non-corridor delivery driver wages rise >=20% as AV concentrates in dense urbancascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Total demand for human-driven services exceeds 2025 levels even at 50% AV market sharecascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-07 — AI achieves IMO Gold (top-30 score) on 2026 problemscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — FrontierMath benchmark passes 50% by frontier modelcascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First open math problem solved by AI publicly announcedcascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mathematician community publishes paper acknowledging AI as research collaboratorcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Epoch AI confirms exhaustion of high-quality public text corpuspre #5 · pending · 2027-05-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Frontier labs continue licensing/scraping fresh human data through 2027+pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Pure synthetic-data pre-training run produces frontier-class modelpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Frontier labs disclose >=10x effective compute scale-up from Q1 2026 to mid-yearcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Public benchmark step-change demonstrates capability gap between Jan-2026 and YE-2026 modelscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — End-of-2026 frontier model capability disclosures confirm 100x scaling claimcascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Capability jump triggers visible economic dislocation in white-collar productivitycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-01 — GPT-OSS-120B running at 3,000 tokens/sec on Cerebraspre #5 · pending · 2026-06-15 — AWS-Cerebras inference cloud collaboration GApre #4 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT user-facing 1,000+ tok/s mode rolloutpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026 documents OSWorld 12% to 66.3% accuracy jumppre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Holo3-35B-A3B leads OSWorld-Verified at 82.6%cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Computer-use agent on OSWorld reaches 90% human-task efficiencycascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Cascade: Major enterprise SaaS deploys OSWorld-grade computer-use agent in productioncascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: Major-country AI pause beginning 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal AI moratorium proposed and rejected/diluted in US Congresspre #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Voluntary frontier-lab pause triggers competitor outpacing on benchmarkspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI, xAI, Google ship production-scale agentic-research products comparable to Claude Codepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Frontier-model market-share converges: no single lab >40% of enterprise AI spendcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Lab leadership rotates again — Anthropic regains undisputed lead, or fourth lab emergespre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic releases additional vertical-workflow plugin (healthcare / accounting / consulting)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Sector-specific software stock drawdown >10% intraday on plugin-launch daycascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic ARR or revenue disclosure shows plugin-driven enterprise accelerationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-22 — Legal-tech incumbent announces M&A or AI-pivot to defend market sharecascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Antitrust or congressional inquiry opens into bundled-LLM market disruptioncascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sequoia / a16z announces formal AI-augmented investment committee processpre #5 · pending · 2027-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Rowspace (AI for VC) reaches Series B / $1B+ valuationpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First AI-led VC fund publicly reports portfolio outperforming peer medianpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI auto-sourced deal leads to top-decile exit / unicornpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps embed AI agents by end of 2026pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Major SaaS vendor publishes 'agent-first' API spec / agent.md standardpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Agent-driven traffic exceeds 10% of API volume on a major dev platformpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Gartner: 40% of enterprise apps include task-specific AI agents by end-2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Worldwide AI spending crosses $2.5T in 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative deployed AI agent count crosses 10 billion (active provisioned)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Active deployed AI agents exceed human population (8B agents)cascade #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — 1 trillion AI agents threshold — Diamandis specific targetpre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First commercial 'AI agent attention auction' or paid-priority API tier launchespre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — HBM3/HBM4 memory remains the binding constraint per analyst commentarypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Data-center electrical capacity additions remain below demand forecast (lead-time gap >24 months)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If GPU rental prices fall >50% from April 2026 levels by end-2027, scarcity thesis weakenspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-10 — Apple unveils next-gen Siri / Apple Intelligence using Gemini at WWDC 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Apple ships M5-class on-device LLM tooling that meaningfully exploits unified memorypre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple Intelligence reaches >=30% iPhone install base (Apple Intelligence-eligible devices using on-device features)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple permits third-party local frontier model installation (Gemma / Claude / open-weights) on iOScascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Eon Systems demonstrates whole-fly multi-behavior emulationpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Eon publishes Nature/bioRxiv paper on fly-brain emulationpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Eon announces mouse-brain connectome target with timelinecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mouse connectome generation funding round announcedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First mouse brain region (e.g., visual cortex) emulated end-to-endpre #6 · hit · 2026-02-24 — EIA confirms 86 GW US 2026 capacity additions plan with 51% solarpre #5 · hit · 2026-02-24 — Solar additions reach 43.4 GW utility-scale planned for 2026 (60% YoY increase)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-02-24 — Texas leads with 40% of new utility-scale solar (Tehuacana Creek 837 MW project)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Battery storage hits 24 GW added in 2026 (vs 15 GW in 2025)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-15 — Actual 2026 solar additions deliver vs 43.4 GW plan (slip risk: interconnection queue)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Anthropic 2026 fiscal-year ARR exit-rate disclosed — checkpoint on '10x in 2026' premisepre #2 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Anthropic IPO or pre-IPO valuation crosses $1Tpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Anthropic 2027 ARR run-rate vs the 10x trajectory — major variance checkcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI venture funding 2026 H1 exceeds $200B globallypre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Open-weight frontier model released by sub-$10M labpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Solo / small-team product reaches ≥100K MAU on agent stackpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — PDI gauntlet: Top 10 AI products built with <$1M founding capital by 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Major analyst report or central-bank speech reframes compute / energy as scarce factor of productionpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — US grid interconnect queue or curtailment data shows binding compute-power gappre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Critical-mineral concentration crisis intensifies (rare-earth / cobalt / lithium)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Compute-credits / energy-tokens emerge as observed alternative-currency settlementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — OECD or IMF working paper measures factor-price shift toward energy/computecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Industrial 3D printing capex exceeds $25B globally in 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Molecular manufacturing public demonstration (sub-nanometer assembly)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Consumer-good marginal cost benchmark (3D-printed shoe/tool) hits sub-$5pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Mainstream economists adopt 'near-zero marginal cost' framing in 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-12 — Major frontier-lab CEO publicly states 'capital may be mortal' or equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major US wealth-tax / capital-redistribution proposal advances in Congresspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Billionaire / equity-holder loss event tied to AI labor pushbackcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Anti-trust / structural-reform legislation targeting AI-monopolist concentrationcascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Capital share of GDP begins multi-quarter decline for first time since 1970spre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2026pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — U6 underemployment rate crosses 9% sustained for 2+ monthspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major US protest event explicitly framed as 'AI job loss' organizedpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — NBER recession declaration for 2026 or 2027pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Goldman Sachs / BLS update to AI-displacement model showing 25% of work hours automatedpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Nvidia-style productivity case study replicates — second Fortune-100 company shows revenue/headcount decouplingpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — BLS Business Formation Statistics show ≥ 5x acceleration in new business applications (gates the "5x more companies" clacascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — US unemployment rate remains within ±1pp of pre-AI baseline through end of target window (employment-flat check)cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs: AI reduces US monthly payroll by ~16K, +0.1pp unemploymentpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Uber-Nuro driverless launch in SF (driver-replacement waypoint)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Margin pressure on management drives AI-substitution wave in entry-level white collarpre #2 · pending · 2028-04-30 — US driver workforce (taxi+rideshare+truck) declines >5% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Wage gap between AI-augmented and AI-substituted occupations widens >10ppcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — 43% of Gen Z plans entrepreneurship in 2026 (highest of any generation)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Counter-evidence: Gen Z entry-level posting share drops below 35%pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Gen Z founder share of new startup formations crosses 30%pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Younger Gen Z wage growth outpaces older Millennial cohort 2026-2028cascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Pincus/Donovan publicly announces wealth-pod structurepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First annual disbursement to 44 recipients (4% cash + 1% expansion pool)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Pod publishes baseline wellbeing/income measurement of 44 recipientscascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First-year recipient outcomes publicly reportedcascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Expansion pool funds second podcascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major academic paper demonstrates state-of-the-art LLM at <1B parameters on a benchmark within 5 points of frontierpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mainstream non-transformer architecture (Mamba, RWKV, Hyena, RetNet) wins on ChatBot Arena top 20pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier lab announces 'next-generation architecture' departure from transformer scalingpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Kolmogorov-complexity / compression-prize benchmark shows AI compressing knowledge below transformer-floorpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — First production LLM ships at <100MB total size with utility comparable to GPT-3cascade #2 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: On-device AGI-class models ship with major OSpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlycascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-27 — ICLR 2026 Workshop on AI with Recursive Self-Improvement convened in Rio (community legitimization)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-15 — AlphaEvolve-class system autonomously discovers novel SOTA algorithm in published paperpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI ships intern-level AI research agent (publicly demonstrated or deployed)pre #1 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier lab "effective workforce" disclosure shows >10x ratio of AI agents to human researcherscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic / OpenAI public claim of "fully automated AI research" pipelinecascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Musk publicly affirms hard takeoff thesis at Abundance Summit 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-lab leader publicly endorses recursive self-improvement timeline by mid-2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Per-week breakthrough cadence visible in independent metricscascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First publicly disclosed AI system that materially designs its successor model architecturecascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Hard-takeoff thesis enters mainstream macro discoursecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-02-22 — Sam Altman publicly states AGI 'feels close' or equivalentpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI declares 'AI research intern' capability internally achievedpre #3 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model exceeds human PhD-expert performance on FrontierMath benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI system surpasses median-IQ humans across composite benchmarks (>=120 IQ-equivalent)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent expert panel declares one major capability domain 'incomprehensibly' beyond top humanpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-discovered longevity candidate enters Phase I clinical trialpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Isomorphic Labs / Insilico Medicine announces AI-designed clinical candidatepre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI lab claims demonstrable solution to a major scientific problem (publicly verified)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First country approves AI-designed gene therapy or longevity interventionpre #6 · pending · 2026-08-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier AI exceeds aggregate human performance on broad benchmark suitepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-driven compute consumption reaches >1% of global electricitypre #2 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Independent forecaster declares humans 'minority of intelligence' framing acceptedpre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Optimus V3 prototype publicly revealed by Teslapre #4 · pending · 2026-06-19 — Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Musk delays or pushes back production timeline (risk milestone)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Tesla AI5 chip (with ~5x memory bandwidth vs Gen 2) integrated into Optimus 3cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Optimus 3 production line begins low-rate manufacturing at Fremont factorycascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Initial 2026 production volume reaches several hundred units (S-curve start)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-01 — 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Giga Texas dedicated Optimus factory groundbreaking confirmedpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Cumulative Optimus production reaches several hundred units (2026 YE)pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-16 — High-volume production milestone (1K+ units/month run rate)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: external customer commercial deliveries begin (non-Tesla deployment)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #5 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-17 — Tesla reveals Optimus Gen 3 hand patents (50 actuators, 22 DoF/hand)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Tesla Optimus V3 official reveal event late July / early August 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Tesla Optimus V3 begins formal production at Fremontcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Optimus V3 Tesla AI5 chip integrated with Grok / xAI co-processingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Tesla Optimus Gen 4 announced (2027 yearly cadence test)cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 update confirms 5.2M sq ft Optimus expansion at Giga Texaspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Geopier foundation work begins at Giga Texas Optimus sitepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Low-volume Optimus output begins from Austin facilitypre #1 · pending · 2026-09-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Major structural work completed by end of 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Tesla Optimus reaches 1M unit annualized run-ratepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla repurposes Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus productionpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Optimus units perform measurable factory tasks at Tesla plantspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Tesla output per employee grows ≥30% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Tesla's labor productivity outpaces auto-industry peers by ≥2xcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-03 — Tesla Texas factory reduces headcount 22% in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Tesla cuts >14,000 roles globally in 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Tesla Q2 2026 hiring announcement materializescascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus production drives >2,000 manufacturing hirescascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybercab/Robotaxi launch reduces ICE workforce furthercascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Tesla Optimus 3 enters productioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — US CPI core inflation drops below 2% YoYcascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Goods-price PPI declines YoY for >=2 consecutive quarterscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Fed funds rate cut to <2% citing AI productivity disinflationcascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Real GDP growth exceeds 5% sustained 4 quarterscascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — Major government official publicly proposes UBI to offset AI displacementpre #5 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First production-scale humanoid robot fleet (>10K units) deployed commerciallypre #2 · pending · 2027-03-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Per-unit cost of humanoid robot drops below $20Kpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Anthropic CEO restates AGI 2026-2027 timeline at major venuepre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Frontier model achieves novel scientific insight (Altman 2026 prediction)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — G20 / OECD policy paper acknowledges money/work decoupling scenariocascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Macro indicator: real wage / consumption ratios show AI-era distortioncascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Stanford AI Index / similar tracker reports power/energy as primary AI scaling constraintpre #5 · pending · 2026-11-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Hyperscaler signs >=1GW nuclear/SMR PPA explicitly framed as 'AI fuel'pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major frontier lab publishes paper framing AI optimization in compute/energy units (vs $)pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI agent autonomously transacts in non-USD compute resource (token-for-compute, GPU-hour swap)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Tokenized compute marketplace (Akash, io.net, Render) hits $1B annualized GMVpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-03 — Goldman: AI productivity contribution near-zero (0.1-0.2pp GDP)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Treasury auction stress event (≥10y yield spike >25bps in week)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major fiscal-AI policy proposal in Congresscascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Real GDP growth from AI investment exceeds 1pp/yr in 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Healthcare humanoid robot market size hits $2.96B in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotic-assisted surgery market crosses $14B globallypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI diagnostic systems (Aidoc, Viz.ai) integrated in >50% of US hospitalspre #3 · pending · 2027-03-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Optimus / humanoid surgery demonstration on cadaver or live procedurecascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Universal access to AI-doctor better than richest-person care NOT achieved by 2028-11-30pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-30 — SpaceX FCC application for million-satellite orbital data-center constellation acknowledged / advancedpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Google CEO restates AI data centers in space target for 2027 with concrete partner / launch slotpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Peer-reviewed Dyson-swarm / photovoltaic-Dyson-sphere paper published, cited in mainstream tech presspre #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Starcloud / orbital compute reaches ≥100kW deployed solar power (sun-energy capture milestone)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cumulative orbital compute power exceeds 1 MW across operatorscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscalers + frontier labs commit >=$1T cumulative AI capex through 2026pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute aggregate exceeds human-brain-equivalent FLOPS across deployed AI fleetpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First permanent off-Earth compute installation (lunar / Starlink-attached) announcedcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starlink-attached compute / SpaceX 'Starcloud' commercial service goes livecascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Aggregate AI inference operations exceed measurable human cognitive operations per daypre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Tesla CEO public statement that money is becoming less relevantpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government formally proposes UBI / AI dividend pilotcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — AI white-collar displacement crosses measurable threshold (BLS or McKinsey data)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Public AI-dividend / token tax legislative proposal in US Congresspre #6 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Published AI capability progress chart shows visible second S-curve onset (reasoning models)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — RL-from-verifiable-reward / reasoning S-curve produces measurable benchmark step-uppre #2 · pending · 2027-01-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Public capability-progress narrative shifts from 'chinchilla scaling' to 'overlapping curves'cascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Diffusion / world-model-based architecture launches as third S-curvepre #5 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Tesla converts Fremont Model S/X line for Optimus productionpre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Tesla Optimus 3 unveiling at mid-2026 eventcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla Optimus 3 mass production begins Q3 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Optimus 3 vs Figure 03 head-to-head capability comparison publishedcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 2026 Optimus production volume reaches only hundreds of units (vs Tesla 1M target)cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic crosses $50B annualized revenue run ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amazon AWS reaches $200B annualized revenue run ratepre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NVIDIA full-year revenue exceeds $300B with growth slowingpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Anthropic crosses $100B ARR or surpasses OpenAI on revenuecascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Amazon publishes guidance crossing $1T annual revenue run ratecascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: AI-services revenue concentration triggers antitrust reviewcascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2025-02-24 — NVIDIA holds ≥70% of CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity for 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-10 — Jensen Huang publicly requests TSMC 3nm capacity expansion +50%pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-01 — TSMC 3nm capacity utilization hits 100% in H1 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Independent disclosure of NVIDIA share of TSMC 3nm wafer starts ≥70%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Apple secures meaningful 2nm allocation, leaving NVIDIA dominant on 3nm legacycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — OpenClaw breaks 300k GitHub starspre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First repo to add >100k stars in <72 hourspre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — GitHub Octoverse 2026 reports continued >150% YoY LLM-repo growthpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-14 — First documented case of agent-bot-driven mass stargazing eventcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Recursive-self-improvement coding agent reaches autonomous PR merge at scalecascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Salim Ismail publishes The Shift on Organizational Singularitycascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Fortune 500 average AI deployment ratio crosses 50%cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Federal/state government AI procurement orders cross $5Bcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major nonprofit (Red Cross, UN, Gates) announces AI-native restructurecascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — 10x productivity case studies published from at least 5 industriescascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — OECD reports AI displaces >=10% of white-collar tasks economy-widepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Critical analysis questions enterprise-readiness of OpenClaw vs Bedrock AgentCorecascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenClaw competing solutions emerge from Microsoft/Googlecascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Enterprise pilot announcements citing measurable productivity gainscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — DOJ second-request CID or formal investigation announcement on NVIDIApre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Senate or House antitrust subcommittee hearing scheduled with NVIDIA testimony requestcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-23 — FTC opens parallel investigation tied to AI bundling / tying allegationscascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — China SAMR formal anti-monopoly penalty or remedy on NVIDIAcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — NVIDIA agrees to conduct or behavioral remedy (consent decree)cascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-15 — Trump administration approves H200 sales to China with 25% revenue sharepre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — BIS final rule effective: H200 + AMD MI325X license review made more flexible (NOT more aggressive)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Cascade: NVIDIA reports declining China data-center revenue despite policy easingcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major chip-smuggling enforcement action ($100M+ scale) prosecutedcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-30 — Blackwell architecture remains barred from China sales through 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-04-01 — NVIDIA discloses long-term TSMC capacity reservation (multi-year lock-up)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — DOJ/FTC issues second-request CID or formal complaint targeting NVIDIA contractscascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: TSMC publicly diversifies advanced-node customer commitments (counter-narrative)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: NVIDIA settles or accepts behavioral remedies on capacity-contract termscascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Nvidia Rubin Ultra (2nm) tape-out and ramp confirmed at TSMCpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — TSMC N2 (2nm) wafer-capacity ramp constrains Nvidia supplycascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Nvidia data-center revenue doubles from FY2026 baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Post-Rubin-Ultra Feynman roadmap node confirmed (1.6nm or backside power)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Nvidia stock multiple compresses post-Rubin Ultra ramp despite growthcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Mamba-3 publication validates active progress on post-transformer SSM linepre #5 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI Q1 next-year model releases reference 5.2-architecture gains (Altman roadmap commitment)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Independent benchmark verification: novel architecture matches or beats transformer SOTA at matched computecascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Transformer-LSTM-magnitude leap consensus emerges (≥ 3 frontier labs adopt or replicate the new architecture)pre #6 · overdue · 2025-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-12-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — GPT-4-class inference cost drops to $0.40/M tokens (1000x reduction)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-15 — DeepSeek R1 runs 20-50x cheaper than OpenAI equivalentpre #2 · hit · 2026-03-15 — $18B allocated to foundation model APIs in 2025 (paradox confirmation)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — DeepSeek V4 Pro launches at 98% less than GPT-5.5 Procascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Epoch AI publishes inference price-trend data showing further drops 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Enterprise inference spend exceeds $50B 2026 despite per-token dropscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-05-31 — Mamba-3 published at ICLR 2026 with sub-Transformer latency at 1.5B scalecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hybrid attention-SSM becomes default architecture in major frontier modelcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier post-Transformer architecture demonstrates 1000x+ inference cost reduction at frontier scalecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Humanity's Last Exam top score crosses 50% thresholdpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI investment exceeds $700B annualized run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Top-tier benchmark performance growth >=2x by mid-2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Hyperscaler AI capex guide-down (>=10%) for 2027 due to efficiency gainspre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Distillation/quantization yield documented 10x+ further inference gains in 2026 cohortpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Data center spending continues climbing toward $400B+ in 2026 (counter-evidence)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: US grid electricity demand growth slows materially due to AI efficiencycascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Power-utility / nuclear PPA deal cancellation tied to a hyperscalercascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi reaches $401M revenue Year 1 with effective headcount of 2 — first credible solo-unicorn proof pointpre #5 · pending · 2026-10-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First publicly named 1-person company at $1B+ valuationpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Cohort scale — at least 5 named one-person (or <=5 FTE) companies cross $100M revenuecascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-15 — First trillion-dollar valuation for a category-defining solo-founder / micro-team AI companypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier lab releases hybrid post-transformer model (Mamba/JEPA/diffusion or novel architecture) at production scalepre #2 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Sam Altman / frontier-lab CEO public statement: post-transformer architecture identified or imminentpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Novel architecture exceeds transformer on widely-followed benchmark (MMLU, GPQA, SWE-Bench, ARC-AGI) at matched computecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Industry shift signal: ≥ 2 of top-5 frontier labs deploy non-pure-transformer flagshipcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier model trained on architecture that does NOT efficiently map to NVIDIA tensor corespre #4 · pending · 2027-05-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-19 — New AI lab founded specifically around post-transformer architecture (Anthropic-class)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Cascade: NVIDIA gross margin compression >=500 bps as customers shift to alternative-arch chipscascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Cascade: Post-transformer-native lab valued >=$50B (next Anthropic/OpenAI scale)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Groq / Cerebras / Etched / SambaNova reach >5% combined inference market sharepre #4 · pending · 2027-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — First production frontier model trained on a non-transformer architecture (Mamba/SSM/Diffusion-LM/Mixture-of-Recursions pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — ASIC purpose-built for non-transformer post-attention architecture announced by major fab partner (TSMC/Samsung/Intel Focascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — NVIDIA loses >=5 percentage points of AI training GPU share in a quarterpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic crosses $1T valuation in primary or active secondary marketpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI completes funding or IPO at >=$1T valuationpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — xAI / SpaceX combined entity valued >=$1T via SpaceX IPOpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Google DeepMind / Alphabet AI segment crosses $1T attributable valuecascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Fifth lab (Meta SuperIntelligence Labs OR Microsoft AI division) reaches $1T attributable valuecascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Frontier model demonstrates sustained pro-social behavior in red-team evaluationspre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Wisdom benchmark (e.g., wise-action selection at moral dilemmas) introduced and adoptedpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-05 — Multi-lab alignment compact: top 5 labs publish joint statement on values-aligned AGIpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: First clinical study showing AI mental-health agent improves wellbeing vs human therapistscascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Cascade: Major religious or philosophical institution publicly endorses 'AI as moral peer'pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Intel 14A process selection finalizedpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Tesla AI5 small-batch (engineering sample) productionpre #2 · pending · 2026-11-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First Terafab module groundbreaking / construction startcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — AI5 volume production begins (initial 100k WSPM run-rate)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Path to 1M WSPM / 70% TSMC scale becomes credible (or slips publicly)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-31 — China will land on the moon before end of 2030pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ASML confirms 2026 EUV production target of ~60 machines (not 700-1000 as quoted by Blundin)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Foundry capacity expansion announcements cite EUV bottleneck as constraintcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — ASML High-NA EUV (EXE:5200/5400) shipments commence to leading-edge fabscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-08 — ASML 2027 production guidance set (target ~80 machines)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: ASML announces 2030 capacity expansion plan exceeding 100 EUV machines/yearcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla AI5 chip production launches at Samsung Taylor fabcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Musk publicly credits Tesla design/process input for Samsung yield improvementscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Samsung foundry breakeven achieved Q4 2026 driven by Tesla volumescascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Samsung 2nm GAA process delivers Tesla AI6 first siliconcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cascade: Optimus production-line uses Samsung-fabbed AI6 Lite chips at scalepre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — DOE Genesis or equivalent national-AI-for-science program operationalpre #4 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Nobel Prize awarded to AI-led research workflowpre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Time-to-discovery in major journal cohort drops measurablypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Morgan Stanley AI Power Supply Summit highlights off-grid trendpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Morgan Stanley revises shortfall to 72GW by 2030cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Texas, Virginia, or Oregon hyperscaler announces off-grid SMR or gas peaker pactcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Actual 2028 grid shortfall confirmed at 13GW or worsecascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Zoox launches robotaxis in Austin and Miami (own-app expansion)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Zoox commences mapping / pre-deployment testing fleet in Los Angeles metropre #1 · pending · 2027-07-16 — Zoox robotaxi service publicly launches in Los Angeles via Uber app (mid-2027)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #2 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timecascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Amazon robot count exceeds human warehouse worker count in US fulfillment networkpre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Amazon achieves first 'lights-out' (zero-human) fulfillment shift in major facilitypre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cascade: Walmart, FedEx, or UPS announces matching robot-majority workforce strategycascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Cascade: Total US warehouse FTE declines >=15% YoY for first time on recordcascade #2 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #3 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Salesforce, ServiceNow, or comparable platform vendor reports its agent platform replacing >=20% of customer support FTEcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenExO or major consultancy publishes case study of company achieving 50%+ headcount reduction via AI agents while sustcascade #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Salim Ismail or OpenExO publishes data showing average ExO-transformed company runs at 25% of pre-transformation headcoucascade #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — S&P 500 index aggregate revenue per employee rises >25% YoYcascade #5 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Cascade: Total US payroll employment declines >=2% YoY in any rolling 12-month window post-2027cascade #6 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Cascade: Number of US firms with >$10M revenue and <50 employees grows 5x by 2030pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First public claim by major economist or central banker that AI is meaningfully shifting the long-run growth trajectorypre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Macro literature publishes formal critique of 1000x economy thesispre #1 · pending · 2027-07-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — AI-driven productivity growth shows up in advanced-economy TFP statistics (sustained >2% TFP growth for 3 consecutive yecascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Energy-output decoupling milestone: global TWh growth keeps pace with GDP without proportional emissionscascade #3 · pending · 2031-01-01 — Cascade: post-scarcity policy frameworks debated in G7 / G20cascade #4 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Global nominal GDP doubles vs 2024 baseline (2024 nominal world GDP ~$110T → ~$220T)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI ships 'super-app' with agent + browse + voice unified experiencepre #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Wispr-class voice-first AI app crosses #1 productivity in App Storepre #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — ChatGPT crosses 1B weekly active userscascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — New consumer app reaches >50M MAU within 90 days of launchcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Academic / industry survey on AI-and-wellbeing publishes effect-size datacascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2025-08-28 — Software development job postings down 70%+ from 2022 peakcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-14 — Medical school residency match data shows AI-driven specialty shiftcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Law school applicant counts and entry-level associate hiring declinecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Three credit rating agencies issue negative 2026 higher-ed sector outlookspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Closure pace exceeds 1 institution/week in 2026 (matches 'skyrocketing' framing)cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Trump publishes additional UAP/UFO disclosure directive on social mediapre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — House Oversight UAP Task Force holds public hearing in June/July 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Pentagon UAP intercepts briefing delivered to lawmakers per FY2026 NDAAcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Mainstream media frames specific White House UAP announcement as 'disclosure event'cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — UAP Disclosure Act / Transparency Act passes one chamber of Congresscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AI spreadsheet/data agents reach 90% accuracy thresholdcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Junior software dev hiring drops further from -20% baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 80% of enterprise apps embed AI agentscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Enterprise AI agent investment exceeds $600B in 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Major Fortune 500 firm publicly attributes >5% workforce reduction to AI agents handling SQL/UI/coding workcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — California SB 951 amends Cal-WARN Act to cover AI-driven displacementpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — First state passes AI-displacement retraining law with employer-funded reskilling mandatecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Federal DOL launches AI-displaced worker retraining pilot programscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — 5+ states adopt AI retraining mandates by 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Tech-firm pre-emptive layoffs cluster in Q1-Q2 2026 (>=5 firms with AI cause cited)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — >=5 additional states introduce AI-displacement notice bills in 2026 sessionscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — USPTO issues revised AI-assisted inventorship guidancepre #5 · pending · 2026-11-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Court ruling extends or limits DABUS precedent on AI inventorshippre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI-assisted patent filings exceed 50% of new applications in software/biotechpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Public report of AI generating 1M+ candidate inventions in single domainpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Anthropic and Amazon disclose new strategic agreement (>$5B incremental investment)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — Anthropic board approves $50B-class private fundraising round at near-trillion valuationcascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Cascade: Microsoft-OpenAI relationship publicly strained / repriced post-Anthropic-Amazon dealcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Anthropic confidentially or publicly files S-1 with SECcascade #3 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Anthropic prices IPO and begins public tradingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO valuation at first-day close exceeds $1Tcascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-09-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-02-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI ChatGPT Pro / Plus / Team / Enterprise ARR exceeds $20Bpre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI consumer subscriber count exceeds 50M paid userspre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI launches new flagship 'everything app' or super-app subscription tierpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — OpenAI surpasses Anthropic on subscription-revenue (vs API revenue) rankingpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — OpenAI IPO or formal SPAC/direct-listing announcementpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: ChatGPT-style subscription mainstream adoption parity with Netflix (250M+ paid)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-01 — OpenAI revises Stargate compute spend target down from $1.4T to ~$600Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-09 — OpenAI pauses or cancels named Stargate site (UK, Norway, or other)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Microsoft (or another partner) absorbs >50% of capacity originally earmarked for Stargatecascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI publicly announces Stargate-org restructuring or replacement initiativecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: AI-capex reset narrative dominates earnings cycle (>=3 hyperscalers cite Stargate retrenchment)cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Cascade: Cumulative Stargate compute capacity through 2030 below 1 GW realizedcascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — AI-driven structural disinflation observable in CPI/PPI data (sustained 5-12% logistics/manufacturing cost compression)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Electricity becomes binding constraint on AI / production cost stack (Morgan Stanley / Goldman flag)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tech-giant capex tops $700B (2026 — marks compute deflation flywheel)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Specific consumer-good category shows AI-driven price compression to within ~2x of energy+materials costcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Charles I. Jones-style endogenous-growth model with AI-driven cost-collapse cited by Fed / CBOcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Sora 2 / Veo 3.1 / Kling 2.6 ship with audio-video sync (book-ready quality)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Long-form AI video tool (>=10 min coherent narrative)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First commercial 'book-to-movie' AI service launchescascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Hollywood/SAG-AFTRA contract addresses AI book adaptationscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Personal video generation crosses 100M monthly active userscascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-07-02 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google ship long-horizon agent benchmarks (multi-hour tasks)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Schmidt softens timeline within 12 months of 2026 statementpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier labs ship continuous-learning / online-update agent capabilitypre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Agent reliability on multi-step tasks crosses 80% on standardized benchmarkcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Anthropic publishes 2026 Agentic Coding Trends Reportpre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Gartner forecasts 40% of enterprise apps will include AI agents by EOY 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Multi-agent system production deployments cross 50% of Fortune 500cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Frontier lab discloses fully autonomous research agent fleetpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Hyperscaler power bottleneck cited as constraint to research agentspre #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Million-agent research benchmark publicationpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Power-cost-per-agent normalization in lab disclosurescascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Senior AI engineer base comp tops $300K at FAANG/frontier labspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Bifurcated tech labor market: generalist SWE comp stagnatescascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Top frontier labs offer ≥$1M total comp packages for senior research engineerscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Top 1% engineer productivity (LOC/PR throughput) doubles YoYcascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: senior tech lead labor share ≥10pp higher in AI-leveraged firmscascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Concurrent mass-layoff cycle Q1 2026 (Block 40%, Atlassian 1,600+, Salesforce, Klarna, etc.)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Hyperscaler capex concentration: top-5 firms account for >70% of US AI capexcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI-native startup count crosses 50,000 (Schmidt 'large number of very small companies')cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — GitHub Copilot transitions to usage-based billing (token-based)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Top 3 AI coding tools control 70%+ developer market sharecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Manual code remains majority practice at end of 2026 — Diamandis falsifiedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Manual code authoring drops below 30% of new commits at hyperscalerscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Tech sector AI-attributed job losses cross 75K in H1 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Klarna-style customer service AI replacement scales to 5+ Fortune 1000 companiescascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Junior developer hiring rate drops >25% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BLS reports AI-attributed unemployment rate uptickcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal/state UBI or AI displacement tax legislation introducedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — MCP/A2A security advisory or CVE published for cross-vendor agent prompt injection or tool-permission flawcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Agentic AI Foundation publishes formal interoperability conformance suite for MCPcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Documented multi-vendor agent failure causes financial loss >$10M at named enterprisecascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Stanford or comparable lab publishes paper measuring multi-vendor agent error rate >=30% in production-style benchmarkscascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cascade: Major regulator (EU, US) issues binding multi-agent safety/interoperability rulecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Daily-life agentic-AI usage reaches >=50% of US adultspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major regulatory action (US executive order or major bill) addresses AI labor displacementpre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — AI-driven white-collar role displacement crosses 5% of US workforcepre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI doubles GDP-weighted productivity gain in single calendar yearcascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Nvidia data-center revenue exceeds $50B in a single quarterpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in deccascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Meta signs contract to rent Google Cloud TPUs starting 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Nvidia FY2026 annual revenue crosses $200Bcascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Google TPU market share exceeds 13% of AI accelerator revenuecascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Both NVDA and GOOGL deliver positive 2026 calendar-year stock returnscascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — S&P Global confirms 22% data-center grid demand rise in 2025-2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — PJM declares 2027 reliability shortfall of 6GWcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Federal grid emergency authority invoked for AI data centerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — US data center demand reaches 75GW in 2026 per S&Pcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2025-09-30 — Goldman Sachs forecasts 165% data center power demand increase by 2030pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Data centers approach 1,050 TWh consumption in 2026cascade #2 · hit · 2025-12-31 — US data center pipeline of 140 GW under constructioncascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · partial · 2026-04-15 — Frontier labs report diminishing returns from naive parameter scalingpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frontier capabilities continue to track 4-7 month doubling on long-horizon taskscascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AGI/superintelligence-class system released within Schmidt's prediction windowcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex hits $630Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — AI capex contributes 1.1% to GDP growth in H1 2025 baselinepre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Data center construction hits $40B annual rate (June 2025 baseline)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 AI investments drive 75% of GDP increasepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — 2026 hyperscaler AI capex reaches $700B (~doubles 2025)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global data center capex CAGR confirms 21% trajectory toward $1.2T by 2029cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Construction subsegment 'data center' formally separated from 'office' in BEA datacascade #4 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #5 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-11 — Axiom orbital data-center nodes reach LEO (Jan 2026)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Starcloud-2 launch with onboard NVIDIA Blackwell GPUcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First peer-reviewed thermal/radiation results from on-orbit GPU computecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Radiation-hardened or rad-tolerant AI accelerator product announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Operational orbital data-center reports >=10 kW continuous compute powercascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #3 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — SpaceX Starship V3 first flight testpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink V3 deployment using Starship beginscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX achieves 145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Launch-per-hour cadence remains aspirational vs ~1-3 per week realitycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — XPENG IRON ET1 first prototype rolls off production linepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Unitree ships 10,000-20,000 humanoid units in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US/Western humanoid <$30K price point reaches mass productioncascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorpre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Chinese humanoid robot patent filings >5x USpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-21 — China captures >90% of global humanoid robot sales 2025pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US administrative action targets Chinese humanoid importscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla Optimus mass production lags Unitreecascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Customer service / call center employment down >15% YoYpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-25 — ICLR 2026 RSI workshop convenes with peer-reviewed methods paperspre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Recursive Superintelligence public launch (raised $500M)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Multiple competing RSI methods published with no clear winnercascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier lab consensus paper on RSI approach publishedcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — At least 2 Chinese labs (DeepSeek, Alibaba/Qwen, Baidu, ByteDance) sustained at frontier tiercascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of labs releasing models in MMLU/HELM frontier tier (top 20 by capability) settles at 8-12cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Meta or xAI fall out of top-5 by capability for >=180 dayscascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mistral or Aleph Alpha confirmed as last European-headquartered frontier lab via funding round of >=$5Bcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — An Indian-headquartered lab (Sarvam, Krutrim, etc.) reaches top-30 on LMSYS Arenapre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Mistral AI counter-raise of >=$1B at valuation >=$15Bcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Cohere-Aleph Alpha merger closes at $20B+ combined valuationcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — European frontier lab unveils model competitive with top-10 LMArena Elocascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — EU Commission grants AI sovereignty subsidy >= EUR 1B to single labcascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — European electricity-cost relief for AI data centers (industrial tariff)cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Sarvam AI sovereign LLM v1 public releasepre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — IndiaAI Mission compute capacity online (>=10K GPU H100-equivalent)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Indian AI startup raises round at >=$1B valuationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Indian model in top-25 of public LLM leaderboard (LMArena, HELM)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — India AI Impact Summit follow-on commits >$50B private investment by year-end 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Russia AI models rank below 10th globallycascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Russia continues to depend on adapted open-weight modelscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — No Russian frontier AI lab raises >$100Mcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Sanctions limit advanced GPU access to Russiacascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Russia partners with China on AI infrastructure as workaroundcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weightspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chinese open-weight downloads exceed 1B cumulativecascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Chinese model market share in commercial deployments exceeds 30%cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US modelspre #2 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integrationcascade #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focuscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — China expands open-weight model leadership globallycascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintcascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Frontier-lab summer 2026 model releases (OpenAI GPT-next, Google Gemini-3, xAI Grok-5)pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Lab revenue rankings stabilize: top 3 by ARR for 2 consecutive quarterscascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-31 — Independent agent-benchmark consensus on top lab (avg of 5 benchmarks)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: enterprise AI procurement consolidates around <=2 frontier vendorscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Frontier lab discloses successful CBRN red-team finding requiring remediationpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — AI Safety Institute publishes biological-uplift evaluation showing material riskcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Confirmed AI-assisted disinformation/hacking incident attributed by national CERTcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — US executive order or congressional bill restricts open-weight CBRN-relevant modelscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Confirmed CBRN incident with attribution to AI-system upliftpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — G7/G20 communique includes AI safety/governance language post-incidentcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US-China bilateral resumes formal AI safety dialoguecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Material AI-caused incident reaches global news thresholdcascade #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — UN-level AI body or treaty draft circulated post-incidentcascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-04 — Ratepayer Protection Pledge signed by major data center developerspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Interconnection queue backlog persists despite federal actioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Data center capex grows >40% YoY in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Sam Altman publicly raises possibility of $5T cluster fundraisepre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — OpenAI announces $110B in new corporate-partner investment (Nvidia/SoftBank/Amazon)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI valuation crosses $850B in private secondarycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Stargate $500B project moves past initial $100B commitment milestonecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Gemini 3 Deep Think variant published with reasoning-mode breadth confirmedpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Gemini 3 leads on multilingual benchmark vs GPT-5.5 / Claude in independent evaluationpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Chinese frontier model (DeepSeek/Qwen/Kimi) released matching Gemini 3 breadthcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-01 — Tiffin University launches BS in AI and Prompt Engineering for Fall 2026 freshmenpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-07 — 5+ R1 universities require AI/prompt-engineering coursework for incoming freshmenpre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — NC State / Ohio State / Columbia continue executive-ed prompt-engineering programs into 2026-27cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Coursera/edX prompt-engineering-related enrollments cross 5M cumulativecascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI literacy embedded in K-12/freshman-orientation curricula in 3+ statescascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2026-04-16 — Major LMS (Canvas, Google Classroom) ships native generative AI tutorpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Federal GUARD Act advances out of Senate Judiciary Committeecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major frontier lab implements verified-age gating with audit trailcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: federal AI chatbot child-safety law signed into lawcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Cursor launches long-running agents in research previewpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Google Vertex AI ships long-running agents as named productcascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Task duration doubling every 7 months continuescascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Multi-hour autonomous research/engineering agents reach 8-hour workday capabilitycascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Enterprise agentic deployment grows 8x from early 2025 to end-2026cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-23 — Frontier model release with novel scientific discovery (e.g., new theorem, materials, drug target)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — ARC-AGI-2 or Frontier Math Tier 4 leaderboard plateau (no >5pp gain in 60 days)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Public Schmidt restatement or adjacent expert (Hassabis, Amodei) endorses novelty-ceiling thesiscascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Major frontier lab publicly walks back AGI/superintelligence timelinescascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Capex slowdown signal: at least one hyperscaler trims 2027 AI capex guidancecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-30 — Starcloud reaches unicorn status with $1.1B valuationpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Starcloud-2 launch with Blackwell-class GPU computecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Second well-funded space data center competitor announces orbital DC plancascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Space-based data center hits 1+ MW operational computepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — SpaceX 'orbital data center' constellation FCC application reaches public comment milestonecascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Starcloud or Sophia Space deploys >=10 H100/H200-class GPUs in commercial orbital clustercascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative VC funding to space-based AI infrastructure startups crosses $2Bcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First space-based AI inference SLA offered to enterprise customerscascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Optimus 1M-unit/yr Fremont line in prepcascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Tesla AI5 chip enters production for Optimus & robotaxicascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla 2026 capex doubles to $20B+ for AI/roboticscascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Competing humanoid players (Figure, 1X) match vertical-integration playbookcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-26 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically usefupre #3 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla begins Optimus production at Fremont factorypre #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Tesla unveils Optimus V3 design publiclypre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla breaks ground on Giga Texas Optimus self-replicating factorycascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Optimus robot performs verified humanoid-robot manufacturing task on production linecascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Annualized Optimus production rate exceeds 100,000 unitscascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First grid stress event traced to AI data centerscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-30 — Starcloud raises $170M Series A to build orbital data centerspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-10 — Unitree R1 humanoid global launch at $4,370 starting pricepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Unitree opens first directly-operated retail store in Beijing (consumer access)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Quadruped robot prices fall to ~10K yuan ($1,400) entry-levelpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Unitree ships 10K-20K humanoid robots in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Chinese humanoid output grows 94% YoY; Unitree+AgiBot capture ~80% market sharecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-02-27 — USCIS finalizes weighted/merit-based H1B selectionpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI startup hiring shows measurable foreign-talent shortagecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Bipartisan AI immigration carve-out legislationcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Starcloud public update on multi-GW orbital DC roadmappre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Meta-Overview Energy 1 GW space-solar reservation milestonepre #1 · pending · 2026-09-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Academic / industry consensus that earth-bound GW AI factories scale through 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Lunar mass-driver / SBSP feasibility study publishedpre #6 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · partial · 2026-04-30 — First single company to cross $5T market cappre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla / xAI / SpaceX combined enterprise value crosses $5Tpre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX completes IPO and provides public market-cap anchorcascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Optimus / robotaxi commercial revenue ramp validates AI/robotics premiumcascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First single company crosses $10T market cappre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla AI Day / Optimus Day demonstrates commercial customerspre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX IPO valuation comes in at or above $2T anchorcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — xAI / Grok crosses 100M weekly active users or $5B ARRcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Combined Musk-ecosystem valuation (TSLA+SpaceX+xAI+Boring+Neuralink) crosses NVDA market capcascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Lap test fails: NVDA market cap stays >=2x combined Musk ecosystem valuationcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2042-12-21 — Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-21 — Musk announces Terafab semiconductor fab (Tesla/xAI/SpaceX joint)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Intel publicly joins Terafab as foundry-manufacturing partnerpre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Terafab groundbreaking / construction permit filedcascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First Terafab tool installation / wafer test runcascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-02 — Terafab production reaches 100k wafer-starts/month (initial target)cascade #3 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Cascade: Terafab reaches 70% of TSMC output (~1M wspm) — Diamandis claimpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Day-one closing market capitalization of SpaceX upon listingpre #5 · pending · 2026-09-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Post-IPO secondary trading SpaceX market cap holds >=$2T for 30+ consecutive trading dayspre #2 · pending · 2027-02-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Google Project Suncatcher launches first 2 prototype TPU satellitespre #5 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starcloud closes Series B / IPO at $3B+ valuationpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — FCC approves first dedicated orbital-DC license / spectrum allocationpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First multi-satellite orbital compute cluster (≥10 nodes) demonstratedcascade #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — MISS confirmation: zero Dyson swarms by Wissner-Gross window endcascade #2 · pending · 2040-07-01 — Self-replicating space manufacturing demo (key Dyson swarm prerequisite)cascade #3 · pending · 2075-07-02 — First partial Dyson swarm satellite launched (single-satellite proof)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Edison Scientific Kosmos: AI scientist running on GPUs serves >50K researcherspre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — CMR Surgical Versius validated on Cosmos-H simulation for clinical deploymentpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier model solves first-Proof-Challenge math problem (5-page proof)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Joby Dubai vertiport network opens, paying-passenger commercial service beginspre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Archer Midnight enters FAA Stage 4 certificationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-01 — First US commercial paying-passenger eVTOL flightcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2026-07-01 — California enforcement on driverless cars — net regulatory tightening on AVspre #5 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AV-only freight / delivery zones launchedpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First city pilot bans/restricts human driving in geofenced downtown corecascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Insurance pricing diverges — human drivers face material premiumcascade #1 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #4 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Joby/Archer commercial piloted passenger service launches in major US metropre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First commercial autonomous eVTOL cargo flight (Q4 2026 controlled corridor)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — First autonomous passenger eVTOL flight (no pilot on board) in commercial usecascade #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cascade: Autonomous eVTOL operations exceed piloted operations in any one US metrocascade #2 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #3 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — First Tesla Cybercab production VIN rolls off linepre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Tesla confirms <$30K retail price at production VIN milestonepre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Cybercab mass production ramp at Giga Texas (10-min cycle time)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First public Cybercab delivery / handover to customer or robotaxi fleetcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cascade: Stocktwits/fund-manager prediction of late-2026 delay materializescascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: Tesla Cybercab SKU added to Tesla.com configurator with delivery slotspre #6 · pending · 2026-06-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX achieves Starship V3 successful orbital flight with booster catchpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Pad 2 at Starbase Texas comes online enabling higher cadencepre #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — FAA approves up to 44 Starship-Super Heavy launches annually (already-granted check)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Hyperloop / Boring Company tunnel rail competing project public delay or cancellationcascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — First Starship point-to-point demonstration mission announcement (cargo only)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major regulator (FRA, EASA, or equivalent) issues hyperloop cargo-only safety frameworkpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First commercial hyperloop cargo route enters revenue servicepre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Passenger hyperloop testing milestone: full-scale human passengers in vacuum tubepre #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Cumulative hyperloop passenger-revenue trips through 2027 remain below 10,000cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — If passenger-revenue trips exceed cargo-revenue tonnage by window close, claim failspre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Anthropic Economic Index update shows >25% of measurable work hours AI-touchedpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Goldman Sachs / McKinsey publishes update confirming 25% automatable-work-hours estimatepre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First major sector reports >40% of work-hours mediated by AI toolspre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Aggregate enterprise AI-tool seat-count exceeds 100M paid users in USpre #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — BLS time-use survey shows measurable shift of work-hours from manual tasks to AI-supervisory taskspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If aggregate AI seat count plateaus below 50M by end-2027, 25% thesis on track to misscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Klarna reverses AI layoffs, rebuilds human service capacitypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Gartner predicts 50% of AI-driven layoffs reverse by 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — S&P 500 firm publicly confirms running with <=25% historical headcountcascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First major sell-side report explicitly modeling AI-driven valuation compression for S&P 500pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI labor-displacement evidence: BLS reports white-collar employment falls YoYpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Chamath / Sacks publishes follow-up confirming or revising 2-7x compression callpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Mass-incumbent earnings pre-announcement: 3+ S&P 500 companies cut multi-year guidance citing AI competitionpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — S&P 500 forward P/E falls below 18x for >6 monthscascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Cascade: 2x compression actually realized — S&P 500 forward P/E falls to ~11xcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-28 — Activist letters explicitly cite AI labor reduction as value-creation thesispre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Mega-cap multiple compression accelerates (cascade)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Russell 2000 P/E multiple compresses below 16x while EPS expandspre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Russell 2000 small/mid-cap aggregate FCF growth >50% YoYpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — High-labor-share small caps (consulting, staffing, BPO) show triple-digit FCF growthcascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — NASA upgrades language from 'potential biosignature' to 'probable biosignature'pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Mars Sample Return mission funded for return-to-Earth analysispre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Independent confirmation paper from non-NASA teampre #6 · hit · 2025-09-10 — Perseverance Jezero biosignature reported as potentially biologicalpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-21 — Curiosity rover detects 20+ organic molecules at Glen Torridonpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Astrobiology paper confirms cosmic-ray-driven habitability for Mars/Europa/Enceladuspre #3 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Mars Sample Return mission launchescascade #2 · pending · 2030-08-16 — Europa Clipper begins science phase at Jupiterpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Boeing or Lockheed Martin formally restarts ULA divestiture talks (8-K, press, or banker mandate)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Vulcan rocket cadence reaches 12+ launches/yearpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Definitive ULA acquisition announcementpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Antitrust / DoD CFIUS-style review filing for ULA transactioncascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: Acquisition closes; ULA rebrands or integrates into buyerpre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Zhipu GLM-5 (744B params) trained on 100K Huawei Ascend chipspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Moonshot Kimi K2.6 ships as 1T-param MoE open modelcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — >=5 distinct organizations release trillion-parameter-class modelscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · pending · 2026-11-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Sub-1B-parameter model achieves GPT-3.5-class performance on standard benchmarkspre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Sub-100M-parameter model achieves competent task-specific performancepre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Sub-10M-parameter task-specific model demonstrates near-frontier on bounded domaincascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Few million parameters' end-state model class deployed on consumer edge devicespre #6 · pending · 2026-10-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — App-layer revenue overtakes foundation-model revenue at single AI labpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Frontier-model gross margin compresses below 50%pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Public market valuation gap widens — app companies / API companiespre #6 · pending · 2026-11-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First gigawatt-scale AI-purpose-built datacenter campus operationalpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First nuclear reactor restart explicitly contracted for AI datacenter (Three Mile Island/Microsoft style)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — AI-recommended industrial process redesign deployed at Fortune 500 plant scalepre #1 · pending · 2027-11-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — US electricity production grows >10% YoY explicitly tied to AI demandpre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Anthropic / OpenAI announce internal custom-silicon strategypre #5 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI ASIC market grows 44%+ in 2026 (Gartner/IDC validation)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Per-watt inference efficiency gap vs general GPU exceeds 10xpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Actuators confirmed >60% of humanoid material cost (over-engineering signal)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — ≥3 non-humanoid robot platforms adopt actuator/component supply from humanoid chainpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Actuator cost per unit drops ≥30% by 2027 due to volume scalingpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Non-humanoid robotics market growth accelerates ≥20% YoY post-supply-chain unlockpre #6 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-14 — 600K vehicles lost in 2026 due to chip scarcity (UBS forecast)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — TSMC Tainan + Arizona fabs reach volume productionpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Robotaxi fleet expansion explicitly chip-constrained in public disclosurespre #1 · pending · 2027-10-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla 2026 capex officially raised to $25B+ (board / earnings disclosure aligning with Terafab funding)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Terafab pilot facility produces first AI5 chips (small-batch production)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative Terafab project commitments cross $150B (matching prediction's lower-bound total buildout)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #3 · partial · 2026-03-31 — Activist hedge fund publicly uses LLM-generated open letter to public companypre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — AI-native activist fund or platform launchespre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — SEC clarifies AI-generated 13D / 14a-8 letter authorship requirementscascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Hedge-fund cost-structure inverts as AI replaces analyst teamscascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Boards routinely receive AI-drafted shareholder communications volume >10x baselinecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-managed enterprise agent crosses verified $1B in autonomous purchasing/procurement decisions in single yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public AI-managed investment fund (BlackRock Aladdin Auto, JPMorgan IndexGPT, or new entrant) crosses $100B AUMpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Frontier-model agent autonomously runs an SEC-registered fund or RIA business unitcascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Federal Reserve, Treasury, or major central bank publishes formal study on AI agents as systemic financial-market actorscascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Federal regulator opens formal rulemaking or enforcement action specifically targeting AI agents in capital allocationcascade #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — S&P 500 or major economic index includes AI-managed entity as constituentcascade #4 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslycascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-23 — Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-19 — Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.cascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-14 — Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basispre #6 · hit · 2026-02-23 — Uber confirms 20+ AV partnerships globally across freight, delivery, and robotaxispre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Uber/Pony.ai/Verne launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service in Zagrebpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Uber expands autonomous services to Hong Kong, Houston, Madrid, Zurichcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Uber launches Tokyo robotaxi pilot with Nissan and Wayvecascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-22 — Uber discloses operating in 15+ cities with AV partners on Q4 2026 earningscascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Tesla Robotaxi fleet exceeds 1,000 cumulative vehiclespre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla Cybercab or successor begins production deliveriespre #3 · pending · 2027-09-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Uber explicitly opens platform to Tesla owner-operator robotaxispre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If FSD v15 not released and disengagement rate has not improved by end-2027, Uber partnership unrealisticpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Tesla robotaxi undercuts Waymo fares by ~50% in head-to-head market (Dallas)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AAA / Edmunds publish 2026 cost-of-ownership analysis showing private car >$1.10/mi all-inpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Sixth-generation Waymo hardware deployment narrows cost gappre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Waymo reaches 1M weekly paid rides milestonepre #6 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Nissan + Uber + Wayve Tokyo robotaxi pilot launchespre #4 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Wayve robotaxi service expands beyond London to second UK citypre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Wayve commercial robotaxi service expands to ≥3 UK citiespre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Joby completes Dubai vertiport at DXB airport (Q1 2026)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — GCAA or Abu Dhabi DoT issues operating authorization for eVTOL passenger servicecascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First fare-paying eVTOL passenger flight in UAEcascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Uber-app-bookable eVTOL leg goes live in UAEcascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — FAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) compliance flight testing completepre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Joby receives FAA Type Certificate for S4 eVTOLpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Joby commercial passenger service begins in US (NYC or LAX route)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Cascade: Joby manufacturing capacity reaches 4 aircraft/month (2027 target)cascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Uber Eats + Flytrex commercial drone delivery launches in US suburban marketspre #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Drone delivery achieves <=15-minute order-to-doorstep medianpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — FAA Part 108 BVLOS rule finalized — enables scaled drone deliverypre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — DoorDash + Wing service expands to ≥5 US metrospre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Cumulative drone food deliveries cross 1M across USpre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Uber Eats drone delivery expands to >=10 U.S. metro suburbscascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Drone delivery reaches >=1% of Uber Eats U.S. suburban orderscascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Uber-Zoox / Uber-Waymo robotaxi launch in 5+ new cities by year-endcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Driver-survey data (Edison/Pew/QuickTake) reports 20% intent-to-leave annual ratecascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Uber Q2 2026 / Q3 2026 earnings disclose driver attrition or active-driver countcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS Rideshare-driver category data update through 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Driver-headcount stabilization signal: Uber 2027 disclosed driver count flat or up despite robotaxi growthcascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-27 — Waymo aggregate weekly rides reach 500K by end of Q1 2026pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Waymo expands Austin and Atlanta service zones in 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Austin/Atlanta Uber-Waymo partnership exceeds 25% of ride sharecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — S&P Global confirms Sun Belt cities outpace national autonomous growthcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Waymo targets 1M weekly rides by end-2026cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-10-14 — Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in UScascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Uber-Nuro driverless Lucid robotaxi launches in SF Bay Areapre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Waymo crosses 1M weekly paid robotaxi ridespre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — AV chip-supply bottleneck flagged by Uber/Waymo as scaling constraintpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Uber autonomous fleet target 100,000 vehicles announced for scale-upcascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Driver share of revenue compresses on US ride-hail platformscascade #2 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #5 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Uber Eats + Flytrex launch suburban drone pilotspre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — FAA Part 108 final rule published (BVLOS at scale)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Drone delivery hits 100M+ Americans in service areapre #1 · pending · 2028-01-16 — Uber Eats reports suburban drone GMV materially in 10-Kcascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-04 — Uber Q4 2025 delivery revenue grows 30% YoY to $4.9Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Uber adds 1000+ new retail partners in 2026 including marquee namescascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Non-restaurant delivery growth rate exceeds rideshare growth rate in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Dollar Tree partnership generates $500M incremental revenue by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber Eats expands to 7 new EU marketspre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Uber retail partner network exceeds 60,000 locationspre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Uber Shop For Me launches with cross-platform fulfillmentpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Uber delivery gross bookings cross $80B annualized run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Uber Eats delivery selection coverage >=50% of addressable market in top countriescascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Tesla Cybercab first production VIN rolls off linepre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Tesla confirms Cybercab retail price under $30,000cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Waymo publishes per-vehicle build cost figure for Gen 5/6 robotaxicascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Waymo expands fleet beyond 1,500 vehicles or signs >2 city expansion dealcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Tesla launches Cybercab ride-hailing service in pilot citycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Joby Dubai vertiport at DXB completes construction and FAA/GCAA inspectionpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GCAA / UAE regulator issues commercial operating certificate to Jobycascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First paid passenger flight on Joby Dubai networkcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-16 — Average measured travel-time savings vs ground transport publishedcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Abu Dhabi-specific Joby agreement or first flight (note: Archer is current ADIO partner)cascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Commercial passenger flights begin in Dubaipre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Joby announces multi-vertiport network plan for NY/LApre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Vertiport handles ≥10K passengers / month at single sitepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — China-US capital markets friction eases (CSRC-SEC PCAOB cooperation continues)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber announces material partial monetization of its DiDi stakepre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber reports DiDi mark-to-market gain >$2B in single quarterpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — DiDi relists on a major exchange (Hong Kong or US re-listing)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Uber declares special dividend or buyback funded by DiDi proceedscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialcascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Uber-Pony.ai commercial robotaxi service launches in a European citycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Khosrowshahi confirms Uber operating with Chinese AV partners in 10+ countries by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Uber-Baidu robotaxi launches in London or other non-China non-US marketcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Uber-WeRide expands to 5+ Middle East/Europe cities beyond Saudi Arabia/Dubaicascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Uber discloses cumulative robotaxi rides via Chinese AV partners crossing 1Mcascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: Uber files investor update splitting AV ride economics from human-driver baselinepre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2025-10-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-27 — Waymo reaches 500K weekly paid robotaxi rides across 10 US citiespre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Uber commits >$10B to autonomous vehicle programcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Waymo targets 1M weekly rides milestonecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Uber launches robotaxi services in 15+ cities by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AV trips remain under 5% of total Uber volume through 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-30 — In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-06-22 — Software space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providerscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Waymo (GOOGL) crosses 250K weekly rides across all marketscascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Pony.ai expands robotaxi fleet to 3,000 vehicles in 20+ citiescascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — WeRide robotaxi fleet crosses 2,600 vehiclescascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla Robotaxi national service launches in 5+ U.S. metroscascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First U.S. state files legislation reducing driver-license renewal cadence citing AVscascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Auto insurance industry reports first material premium decline due to AV displacementpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — BCG: 'AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces' publishedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs: AI subtracts 16K jobs/month, +0.1pp unemploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Aggregate US employment grows YoY despite AI deployment in 2026-2027pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Entry-level postings fall to <35% of all job postingscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Entry-level white-collar unemployment in 20-30 age cohort stops risingpre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US unemployment rate stabilizes or declines despite AI rolloutpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Major reskilling-program scale-up by federal/state governments tied to AI displacementpre #3 · pending · 2027-10-30 — BLS reports first quarter where AI-related new occupations exceed displacementspre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If unemployment rises above Amodei 10-20% scenario by end-2027, society-adjustment thesis failspre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First peer-reviewed empirical study confirms net job creation in AI-augmented occupationscascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Federal AI-specific worker support legislation introduced with bipartisan co-sponsorshippre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve Beige Book or FOMC statement formally cites AI labor displacement as macroeconomic concernpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — G7 leaders' summit communique includes substantive AI labor-market adjustment provisionpre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — BLS or OECD reports AI-attributed unemployment rate above 4% in any G7 economypre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major US state passes AI-displacement-specific UI extension, retraining program, or basic income statutecascade #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — Tier-1 social-unrest event (sustained protest, strike, or political movement) explicitly attributed to AI displacementcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Computershare 2027 survey: equity-plan participation among employers exceeds 90%pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Federal or state legislation introduced for AI-dividend or worker-equity-share programpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major union (UAW, SAG-AFTRA, Teamsters) negotiates AI-equity clause in CBApre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Employee Ownership Fairness Act or successor legislation passespre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — ESOP participant count grows >10% above 2026 baseline of 15.1Mpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no federal legislation moves and ESOP growth flatlines through 2027, claim direction weakenspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Uber/Lucid commitment expanded to 35,000 robotaxi vehiclespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotaxi service in 10+ Uber cities by year-end 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Uber's published EV-share metric exceeds 30% in top marketscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowcascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-01 — Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwarecascade #6 · pending · 2048-08-06 — Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Uber AI budget exhausted on adjacent-field bets in 2025cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Uber announces or scales robotaxi partnership in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Uber R&D spend grows >20% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Uber publicly discontinues at least one adjacent-field initiativecascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Uber AI Solutions expands to 30 countriespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Uber expands into autonomous fleet operations (rhyming with mobility)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber refrains from non-rhyming adjacency (e.g., social media, gaming)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Uber AI Solutions revenue disclosed as separate line itemcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2025-09-15 — Uber launches data-labeling earning option for US driverspre #5 · hit · 2026-03-31 — uLabel/uTask platform deployed and operationalpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — 100K+ Uber drivers participate in AI labeling taskscascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — New non-driver workers onboard through Uber AI platformcascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Uber AI Solutions becomes top-3 global data labeling vendorcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Khosrowshahi or peer CEO concedes AI replaces majority of jobs (10y horizon)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Uber driver count grows YoY despite robotaxi/AV pilotscascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Uber per-employee revenue grows >=20% YoYcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Uber announces dedicated AI-augmented support roles (vs eliminating)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Uber 2026 headcount remains within +/-10% of 2025 baselinecascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Enterprise AI 'reimagine' threshold: >=50% of Fortune 500 publish AI-first strategypre #3 · pending · 2027-10-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-31 — S&P 500 IT spend on AI tooling exceeds 25% of total IT budgetpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: AI-native startups capture >=20% of new B2B SaaS market sharecascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-01 — Cascade: BLS labor data shows >=10% headcount reduction in 'traditional knowledge work' categoriespre #6 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Colossal announces first viable mammoth embryopre #4 · pending · 2027-02-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal raises follow-on round at >=$15B valuation (50% step-up)pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First Colossal commercial spinout (Form Bio, Breaking) reaches >=$5Bcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Colossal IPO filing OR direct-listing announcement at >=$20Bcascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Founder publicly reaffirms 2028 mammoth target at major venuepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Sixth de-extinction species (bluebuck) added to portfoliopre #4 · pending · 2026-10-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First successful mammoth-edited Asian elephant embryo transferpre #2 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First viable mammoth-trait Asian elephant calf birth (22-month gestation)pre #2 · hit · 2025-01-30 — Khaleesi (third direwolf, female) birth announcementpre #1 · hit · 2025-10-01 — Direwolf pack social-development milestone (1-year birthday update)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Colossal announces new de-extinct species (bluebuck or other)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Colossal announces additional direwolves (4th-onwards)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Woolly mammoth first birth (2028 target tracking)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Engineered PETase enzyme paper (Bhattacharya et al.) published in FEBS Journal — highly active polyester degradationpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — PETase/MHETase variant with gut-compatible pH/temperature window (pH 1-7, 37C) demonstratedpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First published in-vivo (animal model) study of orally-delivered plastic-degrading enzyme on microplastic absorptioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Supplement company / startup announces clinical work toward microplastic-degrading oral productpre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Colossal announces 4th-6th spinout under 'dozen companies' planpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Colossal raises follow-on at ≥$15B valuationpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Form Bio reaches $100M ARR or $1B valuation milestonepre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Breaking (plastic-degradation spinout) commercial pilot launchedpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First Colossal spinout reaches IPO or >=$1B unicorn valuationcascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Colossal spinout count reaches 12 companies (Diamandis claim)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Viagen acquisition integration enables productionized cloning pipelinepre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Government MoU or co-funded program announced for endangered-species cloningpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Colossal cloned 4 red wolves announcedpre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Bluebuck de-extinction project announcedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Mexican government CONANP partnership advances vaquita biobankcascade #2 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-12 — Colossal's 'Lamm $5.4T invasive-species' narrative is repeatedly cited by analystspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Colossal-affiliated Tropic Biosciences reports disease-resistant crop deploymentcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Industry analyst sizes the disease-resistant ag-biotech market explicitlycascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Foundation EEHV mRNA vaccine expands to additional zoos/herdscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First publicly traded comp pure-play in disease-resistant biotech announces revenuecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · miss · 2023-09-04 — IPBES authoritative figure is $423B/year (NOT $5.4T)pre #5 · hit · 2023-09-04 — Costs quadrupled every decade since 1970pre #4 · hit · 2025-05-15 — Phys.org May 2025 study cumulative cost since 1960 exceeds $2.2Tpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major government allocates >$1B specifically to invasive species controlcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Colossal Biosciences or competitor announces commercial invasive species removal contractcascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Updated IPBES estimate publishes in next assessment cyclecascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #6 · miss · 2025-11-30 — USDA NIFA estimates US invasive species impact at $137B/year (NOT $500B)pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Global biological invasion costs reach US$ 26B+/year in 2010spre #4 · hit · 2025-12-31 — North America cumulative invasion cost crosses $1.3T (1960-2017)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — USDA invasive species program funding increasecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences expands de-extinction work as invasive species responsecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First confirmed NWS case in continental US livestock (TX/AZ/NM)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Cattle futures spike >15% on screwworm newspre #2 · pending · 2027-04-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — ≥10% Texas cattle herd impact (USDA NASS)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Biosciences or Ben Lamm publicly announces gene-drive commercial business unitcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Gene-drive Phase III mosquito field trial starts in sub-Saharan Africacascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-16 — International gene-drive governance framework formalized (Convention on Biological Diversity / WHO)cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First gene-drive-derived commercial product (mosquito control, agricultural pest control) shipscascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Cascade: Gene-drive market sizing reports cumulative TAM > $100B in named reportcascade #6 · pending · 2031-12-31 — Cascade: Major rogue or unauthorized gene-drive release becomes geopolitical incidentcascade #1 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Colossal publicly announces 5x prior-largest DNA delivery already achievedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Colossal makes Bluebuck de-extinction breakthrough disclosurepre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Colossal demonstrates DNA delivery in small mammal first as scaling steppre #2 · pending · 2026-07-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Form Bio (Colossal spinout) commercializes large DNA delivery technologycascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Colossal claims 20x prior-largest DNA synthesis delivery by year-end 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Peer review or publication validates Colossal's large-cassette delivery techniquecascade #3 · pending · 2029-01-31 — Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-17 — Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Colossal publicly describes gene drive as reversible (rollback feature documented)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Peer-reviewed publication on Colossal's reversible gene drive containment mechanismcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Independent demonstration of rollback in caged trialcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Critical scientific pushback (rebuttal paper questioning rollback feasibility)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Regulatory approval (USDA APHIS / NZ EPA / Australia OGTR) for first wild-release pilotcascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal artificial-womb spinout announcedpre #4 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Breaking Inc. (plastics microbe spinout) reaches commercial deploymentpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Colossal announces 5th technology spinoutpre #6 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Colossal Biosciences announces second sovereign-state Biovault partnership (post-UAE)pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Dubai Museum of the Future BioVault facility opens to public visitorspre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Colossal banks first 100 of the 10,000-species targetpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Colossal Series D or pre-IPO financing round closes at >=$10B valuationcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Third or more sovereign Biovault site under construction simultaneously (network confirmation)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — First de-extinction or rewilded species sourced from BioVault genetic materialpre #6 · pending · 2026-08-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Dubai facility opens with public-facing living-lab programspre #3 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-01 — First UAE biovault species samples archived (≥1000 specimens)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Colossal expands to second international living-lab sitepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX files confidential S-1 with SEC at $2T target valuationpre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-26 — SpaceX 2025 revenue confirms $15.6B baselinepre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — SpaceX S-1 prospectus made publicpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX IPO roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-24 — SpaceX prices IPO and begins tradingcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #6 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Starlink crosses 10M subscribers, tracking $20B revenue in 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files for IPO at $2T+ valuationpre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Starlink monthly net additions reach 1.5M users (2x 2025 pace)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Starlink EBITDA margins exceed 60% confirming profitability scalecascade #2 · pending · 2027-04-16 — SpaceX 2026 total revenue lands $22-30B range (above doubling)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files draft S-1 with SECpre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-11 — SpaceX roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-08 — SpaceX IPO prices in $1.75T-$2T rangecascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink subscriber count crosses 12Mcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — SpaceX market cap crosses $3T post-IPOcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic files S-1 with SECcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI files S-1 with SECcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic IPO completes listingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — OpenAI IPO completes listingcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-01 — AI-IPO retail-demand absorption affecting subsequent listingscascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Either OpenAI or Anthropic crosses $1T public-market valuationpre #6 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding roundpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #4 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SECpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — OpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPOpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-08 — OpenAI S-1 publicly available; roadshow beginspre #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — OpenAI begins NYSE/Nasdaq trading by end-2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic confidential S-1 filingcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SECpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-25 — Polymarket SpaceX June IPO odds >=60%pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-08 — SpaceX public S-1 filing in late April / May 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-25 — ARK Invest SpaceX IPO Guide published with $1.75T+ valuation frameworkpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — SpaceX road show begins in June 2026 (10-14 day institutional pitch)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-23 — SpaceX IPO prices and lists on Nasdaqcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-16 — Tesla $2B investment in xAI as Master Plan IV vehiclepre #5 · hit · 2026-01-29 — Bloomberg/Reuters reports Musk weighing SpaceX-Tesla-xAI mega-mergerpre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-03 — SpaceX-xAI merger closed at $1.25T combined valuationpre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — $573M+ web of related-party transactions disclosed in Tesla 10-Kcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Tesla-SpaceX or Tesla-xAI formal merger agreement signedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Tesla quarterly earnings demonstrate continued financial health (positive FCF, no covenant breaches)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Dan Ives or other major analyst publicly retracts the '80-90% chance SpaceX-Tesla merger by H1 2027' callpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — SpaceX post-IPO operating performance solid (Starlink revenue, Starship cadence)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-30 — End of H1 2027 reached without a Definitive Merger Agreement filed with SECpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — If merger occurs, accompanying disclosure cites distress or capital need (validating conditional)cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-31 — RS-25 engines ship from Stennis to KSC for Artemis III core stage integrationpre #4 · pending · 2026-08-09 — SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Artemis III SLS core stage fully integrated in VABpre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Starship HLS or Blue Moon flight-ready demonstrator on orbitcascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Artemis 3 launches in 2027 target windowcascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-05 — Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few yearspre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Starship V3 inaugural flightpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public confirmation of skipped 2026 Mars windowpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Full-scale Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demonstration attemptedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Artemis HLS lunar lander schedule slip announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Updated Mars timeline pushes uncrewed mission to 2028-29 windowpre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk publicly delays Starship Mars launch beyond 2026 transfer windowpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Cumulative orbital propellant transfer of >=100 metric tons demonstrated in single Starship testcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First Starship Block 3 successful flight test (Mars-capable variant)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — November 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window closes without Starship launchcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: SpaceX shifts focus to Artemis 3 lunar mission as primary near-term Starship deploymentcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Breakthrough Starshot Phase 2 funding / lightsail-flight test announcementpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Caltech / Brown / NASA lightsail material breakthrough at gram-scalecascade #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Public consensus on lightsail+laser as 'most plausible' interstellar approach (cascade)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Mind-uploading / connectome scanning prototype at mouse-brain scalecascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Terawatt-scale phased-array laser prototype demonstratedpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 system card + Deployment Safety Hub publishedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — GPT-5.5 Pro available in API (April 24, 2026)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — GPT-5.5 DAU/cost ratio enables broad adoption (>=10x developer activity vs 5.4)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Polymarket Mythos release-by-June-30 odds drop below 30%pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic discloses Pentagon/USG Mythos contract valuecascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Polymarket Mythos public release odds remain below 20% by Q3 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Mythos remains gated through end of 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Polymarket 'Grok 5 by Q2 2026' market resolvescascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Grok 5 model card, weights, or API access publicly availablecascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-16 — xAI provides updated guidance on Grok 5 launch windowcascade #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Grok 5 benchmark performance disclosed (HLE, MMLU-Pro, GPQA, ARC-AGI)cascade #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Cascade: Grok 5 launch triggers >5% intraday spike in NVDA / xAI competitor stockscascade #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: xAI valuation re-marks above $300B post Grok 5 launchpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-23 — Grok 5 publicly launchescascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic accelerates next-gen model release calendar (Claude 5 / Opus 5)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-29 — OpenAI catches up to Anthropic in benchmark performance on >=2 of {SWE-bench Verified, ARC-AGI, GPQA-Diamond}cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Anthropic safety / alignment incident reported during accelerated release pressurecascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Anthropic loses pricing power; commercial deals re-priced down >10%cascade #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Dario Amodei or Anthropic exec publicly addresses competitive-pressure release tradeoffspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Sam Altman publishes follow-up cyberattack warning at congressional hearing or major venuecascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — OpenAI / Anthropic publish public model misuse data showing AI-aided cyber campaignscascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Major nation-state-attributed AI-augmented cyberattack on critical infrastructurecascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — White House announces National AI Cybersecurity Initiative with frontier-lab partnershipcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cybersecurity insurance pricing for AI-related risks rises >50% YoYcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI ships GPT-5.5-Cyber to critical cyber defenderspre #2 · pending · 2027-01-15 — First publicly attributed AI-agent-led major cyber incidentpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — OpenAI / Anthropic threat-disruption reports document scaled AI-agent cyber abusecascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Critical-infrastructure-grade cyber incident attributed to open-weights frontier modelcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Federal/international biosecurity AI policy proposalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — First documented attempted misuse of AI for bio R&Dcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-08 — WWDC 2026 keynote announces Gemini-derived Apple Intelligence / Foundation Modelpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — Smaller-than-public framing: Apple may NOT credit Gemini lineage publiclycascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-01 — iOS 27 / iPhone 18 ships with Gemini-derived on-device modelcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent benchmarking confirms Gemini lineage in Apple Foundation Modelcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-04 — Major analyst coverage characterizes V4 reaction as 'priced in' or 'muted' relative to R1 / V3pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-30 — Cascade: AI-capex/hyperscaler stocks regain or surpass pre-V4 levels within 30 days post launchcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cascade: Chinese open-source AI parity narrative becomes consensus, no longer market-movingcascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Amazon launches OpenClaw-style enterprise agent — major incumbent enters categorypre #5 · pending · 2026-10-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Agentic AI ARR milestone — combined ecosystem (frontier labs + cloud agents + OpenClaw deployments) crosses $200B ARRpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Gartner / IDC / Bain reach $1T agentic-AI market consensus year-end 2027pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major jurisdiction introduces draft AI personhood legislationpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Major court issues binding ruling that explicitly addresses AI legal status (positive or negative)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — First narrow contracting/agency right granted to AI system in any jurisdictionpre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If no jurisdiction has even drafted limited AI personhood by end-2027, claim probability decayspre #6 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First major liability case / regulatory action explicitly faulting human-authored code over AI alternativepre #3 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Code-vs-driver legal recognition timing test — code recognition arrives firstpre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — AV legal landmark — first jurisdiction making human driving a presumptive negligence baseline vs autonomy on equipped ropre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Medvi proves micro-team unicorn template ($401M Y1 revenue, $1.8B run-rate, ~2 FTE)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cohort accumulation — at least 10 named micro-team (<=5 FTE) companies cross $50M ARRpre #3 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cohort scaling — 100+ named micro-team companies cross $10M ARR (millions-of-small-businesses signal)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Power-law tail formalized — at least 1 micro-team company crosses $10B valuation, multiple at $1Bpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Intel 18A yield disclosure at or above 65% commercial thresholdpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Terafab Phase 1 groundbreaking or site selection finalized in Austin TXpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Intel external foundry revenue run-rate visibility above $1B annualizedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Tesla AI6 chip first tape-out at Intel 18Acascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Intel external foundry revenue exceeds $4B annualized (Diamandis target validated)cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-09 — Bernstein / external analysts publish capex feasibility critique (~$5T to hit 1 TW)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Tesla picks Intel 14A process for Austin Terafab pilot AI5 chippre #4 · pending · 2026-09-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Austin Terafab pilot fab achieves first wafer-out (small-batch AI5 production)pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Terafab reaches initial 100K wafer-starts/month capacity milestonepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — China controls ~60% global power transformer production capacity (supply constraint)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-08 — Transformer lead times confirmed at 5+ years (vs prior 24-30 months)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — 30-50% of planned 2026 capacity slips to 2028 per industry analysiscascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Hyperscaler capex still >$650B in 2026 despite delays (creates inflation risk)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Robotaxi $/mile drops below $2 in flagship metropre #5 · pending · 2027-04-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Subscription mobility product launches (Uber One AV, Waymo Plus)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Goldman / Morgan Stanley / RethinkX update peak-car forecast earlierpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First major US city sees measurable car-ownership decline (>5%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Frontier-lab evaluation milestone — labs publicly report unsafe-eval-bypass incidents of pre-deployment modelspre #4 · pending · 2027-04-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First credibly attributed AI-uplifted bio/cyber catastrophic-threshold incident (or absence thereof)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — International binding-treaty-level AI safety mechanism (Politburo / G7 / UN level) ratified or near-ratifiedpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Sam Altman / Dario Amodei / Demis Hassabis publicly endorse zero-marginal-cost framingpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Cost-of-intelligence per token falls 10x year-over-yearpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Mainstream-economist counter-argument published (Krugman / Acemoglu / Summers)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major AI service rolls out free unlimited tier to >100M userscascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Energy / compute scarcity contradicts 'zero marginal cost' narrativecascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · partial · 2026-05-01 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlycascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic publishes Mythos pricing per million tokens that is 4-6x Opus 4.7 ($5/$25)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Mythos availability gated to paid Anthropic Max/Enterprise tiers onlycascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — At least 1 published benchmark shows Mythos >=10% above Opus 4.7 on agentic evalcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mythos token volume across Anthropic API stays below 10% of total Opus token spendcascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Anthropic launches a 'Mythos-distilled' Sonnet variant at lower costcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Recursive self-improving AI demonstrated in production at frontier labpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-22 — Global AI agent population (deployed instances) exceeds 100B agent-hours/yearpre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First megawatt-class space-based compute platform reaches LEOpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Cascade: First commercial Dyson swarm prototype contract signed (>=10 satellites)cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Trillion-agent AI workload measured on a single platformpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic releases Claude Mythos Preview (anchor model)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic ships smaller / faster Mythos-class variant (Sonnet/Haiku tier)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — General availability of Mythos beyond Project Glasswing partnerscascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Mythos pricing per token at or below current Opus 4.7 levelscascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Open-source community reverse-engineers / replicates Mythos efficiencycascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · partial · 2026-04-25 — Mixed evaluation: Tom's Guide / blind testing shows Claude Opus 4.7 still wins broader categoriespre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic ships Claude Opus 4.8 / 5.0 reclaiming benchmark leadcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic confirms Mythos withheld for internal/government usepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google DeepMind disclose internal compute share for self-improvementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model release lags published capability by >=3 monthscascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Compute moat acknowledged by US/EU regulatorcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Blue Moon Mk1 robotic lunar lander successful landing on Moon's south polepre #5 · pending · 2027-03-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Blue Origin wins or solidifies NASA HLS / Artemis lunar contract continuationpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Industry analyst (Payload, ArsTechnica, SpaceNews) declares Blue Origin first-tier moon-mission competitorpre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Blue Origin launches >=8 New Glenn missions in calendar yearcascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — Cascade: Blue Origin Mk2 crewed Blue Moon vehicle ready for Artemis-class missionpre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-01 — SpaceX confidentially files S-1 for IPO including xAIpre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-16 — Combined entity loss of $5B reported, raising IPO execution riskpre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — SpaceX-xAI combined IPO targets $1.75T-$2T valuation in summer 2026 listingpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-30 — Liability phase verdict (advisory jury) returnedpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Settlement announcement OR Judge Rogers final ruling on liability phasecascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Sam Altman departs as OpenAI CEO (resignation, removal, or transition)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — OpenAI confirmed to remain for-profit (post-litigation structure)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Cascade: OpenAI files S-1 for IPO post-litigation resolutioncascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-27 — Musk v. Altman / OpenAI trial begins in federal courtpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Trial verdict, settlement, or dismissal announcedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Settlement terms or judgment include Musk-related equity provision in OpenAI Group PBCcascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — OpenAI files S-1 with SEC for trillion-dollar IPOcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Cascade: OpenAI completes IPO with Musk listed as cap-table partycascade #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Cascade: AI sector M&A or governance precedent established re: nonprofit-to-PBC conversionscascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issues ruling in Musk v OpenAIcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Court ruling explicitly addresses whether nonprofit donors retain enforceable rights after for-profit conversioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Appeal filed to Ninth Circuit by losing partycascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — First independent legal article or law review note cites the ruling as precedentcascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Cascade: State AGs (Delaware, California) update guidance on nonprofit-to-PBC conversions citing casecascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: Another large AI nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion proceeds (or is blocked) citing casepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Trump-era endowment-tax pressure on Harvard escalates to credible existential threatpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Endowment performance benchmark: Harvard endowment underperforms S&P 500 by >5% for two consecutive yearspre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Activist investor or alumni group publicly demands corporate restructuring of major US universitypre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major US private university opens formal feasibility study on for-profit / PBC restructuringpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Investment bank or law firm publishes formal valuation analysis of Harvard or peer university as a PBCcascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: University-as-PBC framework gains state-level legal recognitioncascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR reaches $30B (already passed by April 2026)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Anthropic ARR reaches $50B run-rate by end of Q3 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Claude API/enterprise pricing or usage volume holds growth slope through H2 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-01 — Anthropic discloses $100B ARR by end of December 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO files S-1 or completes listing in Q4 2026 / Q1 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic 2027 revenue forecast revised upward toward $200B+cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Claude Code annualized revenue exceeds $2.5Bpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-07 — Anthropic ARR crosses $30B and surpasses OpenAIpre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic ARR reaches $100B (interim milestone toward $1T)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T by EOY 2027 (target)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cascade: Anthropic IPO or tender offer at $1T+ valuationpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Anthropic crosses $30B ARR by April 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Analyst end-of-2026 ARR projections converge to $80-100B rangecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — $200B ARR target — explicit verification or repudiationcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Anthropic stretch target: cross $100B ARR by year-end 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · partial · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic preemptive offers at $850-900B valuation reported (April 2026 — partial of $2T thesis)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Anthropic Series H or follow-on round closes at ≥ $900B post-moneypre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic implied valuation reaches ≥ $1.5T (within striking distance of $2T thesis)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Anthropic implied valuation reaches ≥ $2T (thesis hit)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuationpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Anthropic board approves the >=$900B roundcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Anthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Anthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-01 — OpenAI raises $122B funding round to scale capacitypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — OpenAI launches $8/month entry plan to expand subscriber basecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — ChatGPT WAU breaches 1B thresholdcascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: OpenAI announces 2B+ users across ChatGPT familycascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI startup pitch decks publicly require recursive self-improvement narrativepre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — Frontier lab discloses live recursive self-improvement loop in production trainingcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Funding round for AI startup explicitly cites RSI architecture in announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Down-round or shutdown of non-RSI AI startup signals bar-raisecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI capex shifts towards training-time-compute over inferencecascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — AI-cited layoffs reach 100,000 cumulative through 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — BLS productivity data shows white-collar sector productivity surgecascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — WEF Future of Jobs report quantifies structural displacementcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Leading AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google) publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute mechanismpre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major economic body (IMF/OECD/WEF) publishes formal 'post-scarcity' or 'capitalism 2.0' frameworkpre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — US/EU congressional hearing dedicated to post-AI economic structurepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First national pilot of UBI/UBC explicitly tied to AI productivity dividendspre #1 · pending · 2027-12-31 — If by end-2027 no national-level pilot has launched, 'will emerge' becomes unrealistic by window closecascade #1 · pending · 2028-04-16 — Mainstream presidential-tier candidate adopts post-scarcity platform plankcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — GPT-5.5 / Claude / Gemini 3 enable single-founder agentic businesses at scalepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — AI-native solo entrepreneurs cross $1M ARR threshold (more than 100 documented cases)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anti-AI sentiment / political backlash escalates beyond Sam Altman attackcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Major UBI pilot or social-contract policy proposal advances in target windowcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-14 — BLS data shows non-employer business formation surge attributed to AIcascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Frontier lab claims 'general knowledge worker' capabilitycascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cross-function enterprise benchmark suite shows AI ≥80% on 5+ categoriescascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major consultancy quantifies '50%+ knowledge worker tasks automatable'cascade #4 · pending · 2027-10-01 — BLS labor productivity statistics show AI-attributable inflectioncascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major-party 2028 candidate openly advocates UBI as AI displacement responsepre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Polling shows majority of voters opposed to white-collar bailouts vs blue-collar reliefcascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Cascade: Means-tested AI displacement aid bill excludes high-income white-collar from reliefcascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Single primary outcome explicitly attributed to AI/crypto super PAC spendingpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — AI/crypto super PAC outside spending exceeds $500M cycle totalcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Empirical study published showing super PAC spending shifted >=10 House outcomescascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Anthropic surpasses OpenAI on annualized revenue (continued lead)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Anthropic ARR crosses $50Bpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Enterprise agents revenue mix >50% of Anthropic revenuepre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Revenue trajectory implies $1T within 5 years (analyst extrapolation)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-22 — First frontier lab to publicly project $1T revenue pathcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Single hyperscaler discloses >$200B annual AI capexpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Single AI-customer commitment to one vendor exceeds $300Bpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Annualized run-rate spend by one buyer to one vendor crosses $500Bcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-19 — First public $1T-class AI vendor spend headlinepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — GPT-6 (or successor) public availability or research previewpre #2 · pending · 2027-04-01 — First peer-reviewed scientific discovery primarily authored or driven by GPT-6-class modelpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Pharma or materials company attributes >$1B value to AI-discovered candidatecascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Public valuation marker for AI-science breakthroughcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-11 — BIP-360 (Pay-to-Merkle-Root) merged into Bitcoin BIP repositorypre #2 · hit · 2026-03-20 — BTQ Technologies deploys functional post-quantum Bitcoin testnetpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Bitcoin Core release with PQ migration tooling for mainnetcascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Bitcoin user-activated soft fork or signaling for PQ migrationcascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Cryptographically-relevant quantum computer demonstrated against ECDSA-256pre #6 · hit · 2025-06-30 — Insilico Medicine Phase IIa positive results (TNIK inhibitor for IPF)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-01 — Industry analyst report confirms 80-90% AI-drug Phase 1 success ratepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First AI-designed drug enters Phase III pivotal trialcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Isomorphic Labs first IsoDDE molecule enters clinical trialscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #1 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)cascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorcascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex aggregates exceed $700B annualizedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Microsoft single-quarter capex breaks $30B with AI revenue past $37B run-ratepre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Meta raises full-year 2026 capex guidance to $125B+cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Aggregate global AI investment crosses $1.1T annualized run-rate (~$3B/day)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Capex acceleration triggers credit-market stress event in IG-rated tech issuancecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · pending · 2026-08-10 — Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chaipre #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — At least 3 new AI-team acqui-hires above $500M total deal valuepre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — FTC or DOJ closes acqui-hire merger-review loopholepre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Specialized small-team AI acqui-hire crosses $5B+ headline valuepre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top-50 AI researchers individually compensated >$100M/year market ratecascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Frontier-model parameter count remains in 1T-10T band (no 100T model released)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Industry shift to MoE / smaller dense models confirmedpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — 100T+ parameter dense frontier model released (would falsify)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-18 — Lack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young people who can't get jobs.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-20 — Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalicascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Entry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but entrepreneurial opportunity is unlimited.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-19 — New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers.cascade #6 · pending · 2029-12-29 — AI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to excel at unskilled manual labor.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Anthropic Q2/Q3 2026 ARR run-rate update — sustains 10x YoY trajectorypre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Anthropic IPO or $850-900B valuation round closespre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Frontier benchmark crossover — Claude tops or matches OpenAI flagship on majority of capability/coding/reasoning evals fpre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Enterprise share-of-wallet reversal — Anthropic enterprise spend exceeds OpenAI enterprise spend in independent CIO survcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-14 — Apple announces Amazon Globalstar / Project Kuiper as iPhone satellite vendorpre #5 · pending · 2026-11-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Apple satellite revenue line item appears separately in 10-Qpre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — iPhone formally adds SpaceX Starlink as second-vendor optionpre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Direct-to-device satellite cellular displaces terrestrial backup for emergency / SOScascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-31 — China will land on the moon before end of 2030cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #6 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-08-07 — First quarterly P&L disclosure for Andon Marketpre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Independent retail-industry ranking / press validation of Andon Marketpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-23 — Andon Market still operating at 1-year anniversarycascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: AI-managed retail concept replicated by other founders / chainscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Retail-AI venture funding round >$50Mpre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — AI-orchestrated mall or multi-tenant venue announcedpre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Coverage cluster: 5+ articles on AI pop-up retail explosioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Category data validates explosion (active venues count)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Summer 2026 benchmark composite shows >=10x advance over Jan 2026 baselinepre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Falsification: Summer 2026 benchmarks show <3x improvement (would be NEAR-MISS)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — 100x year claim publicly validated by >=1 independent analystcascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Independent journalism documents AI chatbot bioweapon synthesis instructionspre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — First documented real-world incident of AI-assisted CBRN attempt (attempted, not necessarily successful)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Regulatory response: at least one government imposes mandatory CBRN red-teaming for frontier modelscascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — AI Incident Database adds ≥100 new incidents in three-month windowpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Stanford AI Index 2026 documents 8x growth in malicious-actor AI use vs 2022cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Deepfake-driven incidents continue to outnumber autonomous vehicle / facial recognition incidentscascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Major regulatory reporting requirement (EU AI Act incident reporting / US executive order) goes livecascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reportspre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact datapre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — FMTI 2026 transparency average remains <=45/100 (no reversal)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Chinese frontier lab open-weights release at top-3 LMArena Elopre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Chinese model wins or ties on novel benchmark vs US/UK frontiercascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — OpenAI or Anthropic releases meaningful open-weight model (>30B)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — BIS / US export-control update tightens China AI model exportcascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major US frontier lab publishes architecture / training-recipe transparency reportcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AI coding assistant adoption exceeds 80% of professional developers (Stack Overflow / GitHub)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Autonomous coding agents (Devin / Windsurf Cascade) achieve ≥50% SWE-bench verifiedpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Junior developer hiring (BLS / Indeed / LinkedIn) drops ≥30% YoY for entry-level coding rolescascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Junior software developer (0-3 yr exp) job postings on Indeed/LinkedIn rise YoY for 3 consecutive monthscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS JOLTS Information sector job openings rebound above 2024 baselinecascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Stack Overflow Developer Survey shows entry-level developer share stabilizing or risingcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Salesforce hires 1,000 new-grad software/AI engineers as Benioff committedcascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal Reserve or BLS publishes follow-on study reaffirming AI-not-driving-junior-dev declinecascade #6 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Cascade: CS undergrad enrollment growth resumes (>=2% YoY) after 2024-25 dippre #4 · hit · 2026-01-30 — SpaceX FCC filing for up to 1M orbital data-center satellitespre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US state passes new data-center moratorium / restrictive permittingcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FCC grants partial authorization for orbital data-center constellationcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data-center customer contract announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative LEO/SSO compute capacity exceeds 1 MW across constellationscascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Hyperscaler AI traffic capex includes net-new bandwidth/spectrum line itempre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Starlink/Kuiper announce robot/AV-class connectivity tiercascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start signals demand validation for connected humanoidscascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cellular IoT module shipments for robotics/AV cross 100M annualizedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Spectrum policy: FCC or peer regulator allocates net-new AI-machine-class spectrumcascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Global space launch market reaches $21B revenue in 2025pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — SpaceX 2026 revenue projection $22-24B with 82% commercial market sharecascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Annual orbital launch attempts cross 350 globallycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First trillion-dollar space economy milestone projection (2032)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Starship operational: cost per kg to LEO drops below $500cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-06 — Subsequent DeepSeek-style efficiency announcements fail to repeat the January 2025 selloffpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frequency of algorithmic-efficiency announcements rises (≥5 named events/year)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Single-day market reaction to a 2026 algorithmic-efficiency announcement is <50% of January 2025 magnitudecascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2025-04-15 — Microsoft releases bitnet-b1.58-2B-4T on Hugging Facepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First commercial LLM API deploys ternary weights at scalecascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — Frontier model trained natively in ternary precision (>50B params)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2025-08-25 — Mainstream press coverage of 'AI religion' as growing categorypre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellationscascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-22 — Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredcascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Census or sociological study tracks AI-faith adherentscascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI cult or movement linked to high-profile harm eventcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Pew or Gallup publishes 2026 global religion-affiliation updatecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mainstream press identifies AI-generated 'micro-cult/sect' phenomenoncascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Quantitative measurement of 'AI-religion' / parasocial belief communitiescascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Top-3 world religions' combined share trend visible in WCD/ARDA datasetcascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Vatican issues formal AI policy frameworkpre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Mainline Protestant denominations (UMC, ELCA) adopt formal AI policiespre #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — No civilization-level disruption (negative-test cascade)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Major Islamic / Jewish religious authorities issue AI fatwa / responsapre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — AI-mediated religious services (sermons, study, counseling) become normalizedcascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Bible-app and faith-app downloads sustain 20%+ YoY growth through 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Pew, Gallup, or Barna survey reports rising religious participation tied to AI anxietycascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Cascade: Religious tech / faith-app sector raises >$500M in 2026 venture fundingcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Major US denomination reports first attendance increase in 10+ years in 2026cascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Global religion-economy aggregate market sizing reports growth above 5% in 2026cascade #6 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Cascade: AI-religion or techno-spirituality movements gain >100K self-identified memberspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First true n=1 personalized drug therapy approvedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — n>=10 documented n=1 AI-designed therapies in patientscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI-designed drug discovery time falls to <12 months consistentlycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — FDA Commissioner Makary departure, replacement, or announced leavepre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — RFK Jr override of FDA decision becomes public or formalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Major FDA reorganization or RIF (reduction in force) announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Congressional hearing or bipartisan letter calls for FDA reformcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Pharma industry lobbying for FDA leadership change escalates publiclycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — FDA launches real-time AI-driven clinical trial pilotpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — FDA consolidates 40 systems into single platform; saves $120M/yrcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — FDA finalizes AI-in-drug-development guidance (Q2 2026)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Other federal agency follows FDA accelerated regulatory patterncascade #3 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Inaugural Enhanced Games scheduled for May 21-24, 2026 Las Vegaspre #5 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Gkolomeev posts unofficial 50m freestyle world record (20.89s) in Enhanced trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced Games inaugural competition delivered without major safety incidentcascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced 2026 produces >=2 records faster than current official world recordscascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Enhanced Games announces second edition with year-over-year mark improvementscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of Neuralink human implants reaches 50+cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink launches high-volume production with automated surgery in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink Blindsight first patient trial begins (non-destructive read/write to cortex)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First whole-brain emulation / connectome scan published from preserved tissuecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI-private-company secondary valuations widen vs. revenue multiplespre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI public-name short interest rises above 5% float on 3+ AI playspre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-26 — AI unicorn down-round or failed raise reportedpre #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — AI sector ETF or basket underperforms SPY by >5% in single monthcascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First sustained AI valuation reset (>15% drawdown) on AI-software basketcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Modine (MOD) data-center revenue grows 119% YoYpre #5 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Eaton organic data-center sales 9%+ YoYpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Top 5 'picks-and-shovels' basket gains 3x+ from 2024 baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2031-06-17 — First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-03-23 — World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — First documented AI-enabled solo-founder $1B+ revenue trajectory companypre #1 · hit · 2026-03-01 — Solo-founded startups exceed 35% of new ventures in 2026 cohortcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First solo-founder unicorn ($1B post-money valuation, single-founder, ≤5 employees)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First documented AI-enabled 'one-person religion' or solo-founded religious movement at scalecascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-mediated community / DAO-style spiritual or ideological group exceeds 100K memberscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Maine data center moratorium passes legislature, vetoed by governorpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-14 — 11+ states introduce data center moratorium bills in 2026pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Local moratoriums spread across municipalitiescascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First operational Dyson swarm prototype or megastructure democascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Major US/EU news incident: humanoid robot injures human at consumer-facing eventcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — ASTM/ISO publishes first humanoid-specific safety standardcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First US state introduces legislation regulating humanoid robots in public spacescascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Polling shows majority of Americans 'concerned' about humanoid robots in publiccascade #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybersecurity firm publishes proof-of-concept exploit for production humanoid robot fleetpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in deccascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — US state passes data center moratorium beyond bill stage (signed into law)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Sanders/AOC AI Data Center Moratorium Act gets committee markup or votecascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Hyperscaler announces canceled or relocated AI data center build citing community/utility oppositioncascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US residential power costs rise >=15% YoY in any state with major data-center clustercascade #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major hyperscaler announces dedicated orbital compute initiative explicitly citing earth-side constraintscascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-15 — $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Maine House sustains Mills' veto — moratorium dies; thesis premise (statewide moratorium gives time) invalidatedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Maine Data Center Advisory Council established by EO (replaces moratorium pathway)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — SpaceX Starcloud-2 launch with multi-GPU (Blackwell) orbital compute payloadpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-15 — Other state passes data-center moratorium or significant siting restriction (substitution test)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — SoftWear Automation releases third-gen T-shirt Sewbot for commercial salecascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — BESTSELLER or comparable apparel major announces production volume from Sewbot linescascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First humanoid-robot fashion-stitching demo from Figure/1X/Apptronikcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Sewbot or Sewbo deploys at scale outside textile pilot plants — 100+ units in commercial usepre #6 · hit · 2025-08-15 — SoftWear Automation closes $20M Series B1 led by BESTSELLERpre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Third-generation T-shirt Sewbot reaches commercial availability H1 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Levi's pilots Sewbo robotic denim sewing on production linecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Full sewing automation deployed at production scale (>=100K units/year)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Major apparel brand announces Asia-to-US/Europe reshoring tied to sewbotscascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostoncascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla Optimus 3 begins production at Fremont (summer 2026)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First peer-reviewed paper on multi-modal embodied 'general' robot intelligencecascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Genetic-engineering policy debate around human germline editing intensifiespre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — SpaceX Starship Mars uncrewed mission attempts 2026 launch windowcascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First peer-reviewed terraforming feasibility paper for Mars greenhouse gas warmingcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — SpaceX or government body announces formal terraforming research programcascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First permanent human Mars settlement attempt (precondition for terraforming)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-23 — SK Hynix Q1 2026 earnings: record operating margin (~72%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Samsung Q1 2026 memory-driven 8x profit jumpcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — SK Hynix / Samsung stock prices set new highs through 2026 Q3cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Samsung HBM4 qualifies into top hyperscaler buyerscascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-23 — Hyperscaler HBM forward-supply commitments extend through 2028cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Sub-1-bit (post-binary) LLM quantization achieves >70% accuracy parity vs FP16 on >=7B modelcascade #2 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Major lab (Microsoft, Meta, Google, NVIDIA) ships post-binary precision in production modelcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Hardware accelerator with native sub-binary support announcedcascade #5 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: 'Information per parameter' theoretical paper redefines compute-optimal scaling lawscascade #6 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Sub-binary quantized model deployed at >1B-user scalepre #6 · hit · 2024-12-14 — OpenAI Superalignment 'weak-to-strong generalization' research paper baselinepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Anthropic / DeepMind / OpenAI publish post-2025 results on weak-to-strong supervising frontier modelscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Adversarial demonstration: weak-to-strong fails when the strong model is intentionally deceptivecascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First superintelligence-class system contained / aligned by weaker supervisor in deploymentcascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Anthropic guidance: 'use prompts for everything' published in migration docpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-16 — Opus 4.7 replaces fixed thinking budget with adaptive thinkingpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — OpenAI / Google follow with reduced sampling-parameter surfacecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: prompt-engineering market doubles ($) in 12 months post-4.7cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-05 — Major model release exceeds human OSWorld baseline by clear marginpre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Holo3-35B-A3B leads OSWorld with 82.6%pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Anthropic CEO publicly maintains 2026 AI > most humans timelinepre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — OpenAI articulates 'hundreds of thousands of automated research interns' plancascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Frontier benchmark composite (MMLU/SWE/MATH/OSWorld) exceeds expert humans on 4 of 4cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Cascade: AGI-popular-narrative drives capex acceleration past $700B/yrpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — BLS Software Developer occupation employment falls ≥10% YoYpre #4 · pending · 2027-04-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Programmer role shifts to 'conductor' — agent orchestration tools dominatepre #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — 'Vast majority' threshold met — ≥50% programmer displacementpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — NVIDIA officially launches Vera CPU rack purpose-built for agentic AIpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-31 — NVIDIA unveils Agent OS / NeMoClaw operating system for agentspre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Vera Rubin platform reaches general availability with cloud partner deploymentpre #1 · pending · 2027-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — NVIDIA agentic-AI revenue line crosses $10B annualizedpre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-15 — JPMorgan / Citi / UBS publish bullish copper Q2 2026 calls ≥$12,000/tpre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Copper futures cross $5/lb (LME ~$11,000/t)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-08 — BHP/Freeport/Antofagasta Q1 2026 production beats consensus (constrained supply)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Copper futures cross $13,000/t (peak supercycle scenario)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major mining stock outperforms S&P 500 by ≥30% YTDpre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — BLS Q1 2026 white-collar employment data releasecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Cumulative AI-driven layoffs cross 100K in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First named F500 cuts ≥30% of legal/marketing/finance workforcecascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — UBI policy proposal advances in major economycascade #4 · pending · 2027-12-15 — AI-infrastructure-specific taxation proposed in U.S./EUpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU Commission enforcement powers activate against GPAI providerspre #4 · pending · 2027-01-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-31 — First formal EU AI Act enforcement action announced against major labpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-02 — Pre-Aug-2025 GPAI models compliance deadlinepre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Alex Finn / IT Lounge HIM platform demonstrates 5-agent autonomous corppre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Cumulative HIM-generated revenue surpasses $1Mcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second autonomous-corp framework launches (beyond HIM)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Major incumbent (Salesforce, Microsoft, ServiceNow) launches autonomous-corp suitepre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate prints 2.0% — well below 5-6.2% claimpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Goldman Sachs raises 2026 GDP forecast above consensuspre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate releasepre #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Enterprise SaaS revenue collapse evidence emerges in Q2 2026 reportspre #1 · pending · 2026-08-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate releasepre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Single training run cost exceeds $10Bpre #3 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-01 — AI completes end-to-end software development tasks lasting hours/dayspre #1 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Major employer announces ≥30% white-collar headcount reduction citing AIpre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Cloud Security Alliance: 65% of enterprises report AI-agent-related incidents in past 12 monthspre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-11-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First publicly attributed AI-agent-driven ≥$100M direct financial loss eventpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First major US/EU legislation introduced specifically targeting autonomous-agent operational thresholdspre #1 · pending · 2027-05-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First AI-sector M&A deal exceeding $100B announcedpre #3 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Industry-wide L1 customer support headcount declines >=30%pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Single AI-sector M&A deal at or above $500Bpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #4 · overdue · 2024-08-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-03-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-10-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · hit · 2025-08-15 — Higher Ground Education asset acquisition closescascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-04 — Alpha School expands to 35+ campus locations in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Chicago AI-school campus opens with no human teachers in instructional rolecascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Alpha enrollment grows from 1,000 (2025) to >5,000 studentscascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Pomodoro-style focused-session model formally measured in studypre #4 · hit · 2024-11-20 — Snowflake completes Datavolo acquisition consolidating multimodal pipeline spacepre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major enterprise AI failure attributed to unstructured data quality issuescascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Databricks/Snowflake/Palantir add native multimodal data pipeline productscascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Unstructured.io Series C raises ≥$200M at unicorn-tier valuationcascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First multimodal-data-pipeline startup crosses $5B valuationpre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-28 — Stargate exceeds 10GW milestone with 3GW added in 90 dayspre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — GPT-5.5 trained at flagship Abilene Stargate sitepre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex hits $700B run-ratecascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Cascade: AI compute treated as macro variable in Fed/Treasury commentarycascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — AI capex contributes 40% of US 2026 GDP growthcascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — OpenAI custom Titan chip mass production at TSMC 3nmpre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-18 — Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-22 — AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-12-10 — Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-15 — $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)cascade #5 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #6 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Anthropic ARR exceeds $30B annualized run-ratepre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Frontier model achieves expert-level performance on broad professional certification benchmarkpre #2 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI fully automates >=80% of typical software-engineering tasks at Fortune 500cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #2 · pending · 2030-11-04 — Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productioncascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadecascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · pending · 2027-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraintspre #4 · pending · 2027-04-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Free cash flow positive by 2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-01 — Anthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution)pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Test-time compute / reasoning OOM unlocked via o1, o3, R1pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Aschenbrenner 1GW per cluster prediction validated by 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Frontier model demonstrates 1 full OOM effective compute over GPT-4cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Algorithmic efficiency gains tracked at 0.5+ OOM/year through 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Full automated AI researcher milestone — autonomous research agentpre #6 · overdue · 2024-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-06-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex consensus crosses $600B (above 0.5 OOM/yr trajectory)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-25 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex revised upward to $720-750Bpre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First 1 GW single-cluster training facility operationalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Aggregate FLOPS deployed crosses prior-year level by ~3xcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-01 — 2027 hyperscaler capex guidance >=$900B (extends 0.5 OOM/yr through 2027)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Single AI training cluster crosses $100B announced budgetpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — DoD / NSC / DoE major AI compute partnership announcement (security-state involvement)pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — Formal 'AGI Project' / consortium structure announced (Manhattan-tier)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — AI capex contributes >=20% of total US GDP growthpre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Global data-center buildout commitments cross $2.9T cumulative through 2028pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Investment-grade credit spreads widen on AI-related issuance volumecascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major central bank or IMF publication treats AI as standalone macro factorpre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-25 — NVIDIA full-year FY2026 data center revenue ~$197Bpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscaler 2026 AI capex commitments ~$700B confirmedpre #3 · pending · 2026-09-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — NVIDIA crosses $5T market capitalization sustainablypre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Industry/analyst consensus aligns with $3-5T cumulative AI infra TAM through 2027cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — NVIDIA cumulative 2025-2027 data center revenue exceeds $500B (run-rate trajectory toward $3-5T TAM)pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-22 — Three-supplier 16-Hi HBM4 sample delivery to NVIDIApre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — SK Hynix begins HBM4 mass production for NVIDIA Rubinpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Combined HBM industry quarterly revenue exceeds $20Bpre #1 · pending · 2027-02-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-25 — Arm publishes AGI CPU thesis confirming CPU renaissance for agentic AIpre #4 · hit · 2026-03-18 — Jensen Huang at GTC publicly frames CPU as central to agentic AIpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Morgan Stanley publishes Rise of AI Agents thesis: GPU bottleneck shifts to CPUpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — CPU:GPU ratio in agentic workloads exceeds 1:1 cluster-level by 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Server CPU TAM grows ≥15% annually 2026-2030 per Morgan Stanley estimatepre #5 · hit · 2026-01-10 — Micron HBM capacity sold out through 2026 confirmedpre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Q1-Q2 2026 quarterly HBM shipment data confirms 32B Gb annual run-ratecascade #1 · hit · 2025-12-26 — AI consumes 20% of global DRAM wafer capacity in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — HBM market revenue surges to ~$51 billion in 2026 from ~$3B in 2023cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — HBM supply fulfillment rate falls to ~2% in 2026 — extreme constraintcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — HBM critical-resource positioning drives semiconductor M&A or vertical integrationpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Samsung memory operating profit hits record on HBM-driven salespre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Hyperscalers pre-book HBM supply multi-year aheadpre #3 · pending · 2026-09-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — HBM4 ramp by SK Hynix/Samsung at scalepre #1 · pending · 2027-01-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — HBM ASP holds elevated through 2027 as shortage persistspre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-15 — SK Hynix achieves 16-layer HBM4 mass productionpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — HBM4 yield-related supply shortage reported in 2H 2026pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-07 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Micron 16-Hi HBM4 mass productionpre #6 · hit · 2025-10-29 — SK Hynix sells out 2026 DRAM/HBM/NAND supply to NVIDIApre #5 · overdue · 2026-03-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-31 — SK Hynix HBM4 shipments to NVIDIA Rubin start in March 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — UBS forecasts SK Hynix 70% HBM4 share for NVIDIA Rubinpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Year-end 2026 SK Hynix HBM share remains ≥50%cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Samsung Foundry challenges SK Hynix dominance with HBM4 winspre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-15 — Samsung passes Nvidia HBM4 qualification and signs Vera Rubin supply contractpre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Samsung HBM4 mass production begins shipmentspre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Samsung secures approximately 30% of Nvidia's 2026 HBM4 allocation (vs SK hynix ~70%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Vera Rubin platform begins volume ramp in second half 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Samsung global HBM market share crosses 28% threshold per TrendForce/Counterpointpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-01 — TSMC pivots toward CoWoS-L using Local Silicon Interconnect bridge architecturepre #5 · hit · 2026-01-20 — AMD allocated ~11% of CoWoS capacity for MI350/MI400 ramppre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-08 — TSMC US-Arizona advanced packaging capacity expansion announcedpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — TSMC monthly CoWoS capacity reaches 127,000-130,000 wafers by end-2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — CoWoS capacity remains binding constraint causing AI accelerator shortages through 2027pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — OEMs raise smartphone/PC ASPs to absorb DRAM cost pass-throughpre #4 · pending · 2026-09-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — DDR5/DDR4 shortage extends through Q4 2027pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Consumer-grade DRAM maker exits or consolidates due to bifurcationpre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-20 — Morgan Stanley publishes formal Rise of AI Agents report — GPU-to-CPU pivot thesispre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-22 — CPU-side orchestration is empirically measured at 50-90% of agentic workload latencypre #2 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Hyperscaler greenfield CPU racks deployed exclusively for agentic AIcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Memory and CPU vendors outperform GPU pure-plays in 2026-27 returnscascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — DRAM demand from agentic workloads adds 15-45 EB by 2030cascade #3 · pending · 2029-07-01 — $32.5-60B incremental CPU TAM materialized by 2030 per Morgan Stanleypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Morgan Stanley publishes 15-45 EB DRAM agentic forecastpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-23 — MS Memory Stocks bottleneck shift report publishedpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Micron / SK Hynix earnings cite agentic AI as DRAM demand driverpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — DRAM industry 2026 capex announcements support multi-year supply rampcascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Global DRAM 2027 demand growth tracker confirms 25%+ YoYpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2024-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Tesla Optimus Grok-5 conversational training operational in factoriespre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — 1X NEO ships to early-access homes with conversational UI as defaultpre #4 · pending · 2027-01-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Voice-UI becomes standard reference architecture in humanoid product literaturepre #2 · pending · 2027-07-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Field-deployment data: voice commands account for >50% of task initiationspre #5 · hit · 2026-01-31 — NVIDIA Jetson T4000 ships with Blackwell architecture for roboticspre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major humanoid platform demonstrates on-device SLM inference without cloudcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Edge SLM benchmark hits parity with frontier model on robotics task classcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Power consumption of localized humanoid reasoning drops below 50W sustainedcascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Robotics silicon shipments cross 1M-unit annual threshold for SLM-class NPUspre #6 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Treasury or White House publicly explores tokenized-Treasury / sovereign coin conceptpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Congressional bill introduced for sovereign / agency-issued token tied to debt reductionpre #2 · pending · 2027-03-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: tokenized US debt instruments reach >=$50B market cappre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Quantinuum / IBM cross 10+ logical qubits within 2025pre #5 · overdue · 2025-09-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2025-10-07 — 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for macroscopic quantum tunnelingpre #3 · hit · 2025-12-15 — Vienna team demonstrates quantum interference at 170,000 amu masspre #2 · hit · 2025-12-15 — Macroscopicity record μ=15.5 publishedpre #1 · overdue · 2026-01-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — First cloud provider takes Vera Rubin orders / pre-orderspre #5 · pending · 2026-08-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Vera Rubin NVL72 commercially available at major hyperscalerspre #2 · pending · 2026-10-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Rubin demonstrates 5x inference performance vs Blackwell publiclycascade #1 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Microsoft Fairwater AI superfactory deploys Vera Rubin NVL72 rackspre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Vera Rubin Superchip generally availablepre #5 · pending · 2026-11-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — NVIDIA Manassas GW research center reaches first-lightpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — First named hyperscaler announces 1 GW Rubin cluster contractpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-02-14 — First 1 GW Rubin cluster powered on / training run beginscascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Rubin Ultra ships in 2H 2027 (cascade event indicating GW-scale market maturation)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Digital Omnibus trilogue concludes WITHOUT GPAI deadline extensioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Frontier AI providers publish AI Act compliance documentationcascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-02 — EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin 2 August 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First GPAI provider receives formal Commission investigation noticepre #6 · pending · 2026-07-16 — GPT-5.2 or successor leads METR Time Horizon testpre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Frontier model achieves ≥4-hour 50% time horizonpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — METR researchers simulate 200-hour time horizon AIspre #3 · pending · 2027-01-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-26 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Frontier agent demonstrates ≥8h task with ≥50% reliability (resolution)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Real-world agent deployment (one-workday autonomous loops)pre #6 · hit · 2025-01-07 — FDA proposes 7-step credibility assessment framework for AI modelspre #5 · overdue · 2025-05-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2025-10-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Industry critical reviews of FDA draft published (peer-reviewed)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-02-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — FDA finalizes AI drug-submission guidance by Q2 2026 (per agency timeline)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Materially advanced revised draft published if not finalizedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — First AI-supported drug NDA approved using credibility frameworkpre #5 · overdue · 2025-09-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-28 — ISM8969 FDA IND clearancepre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First patient dosed in Isomorphic Phase 1 oncology trialcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Peer AI-designed drugs (Insilico, Recursion, BenevolentAI) report Phase 1 progresscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Phase 1 dose escalation (first dose level) completioncascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Initial Phase 1 readout (top-line efficacy / safety)pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-04 — Colossal Biosciences confirms 2028 woolly mammoth birth target (Mar 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Asian elephant ovum retrieval / IVF protocol validated (peer-reviewed publication)pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Colossal announces edited-elephant-cell line with full mammoth gene-edit suite ready for embryo creationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — First mammoth-edit embryo created in vitro (lab-stage milestone)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — First embryo transferred into elephant surrogate by end-2027 (prediction direct event)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-10-04 — Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Thylacine scientific-progress milestone announcement (per Colossal commitment 'before end of year')pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-16 — Bluebuck embryo creation + roan-surrogate transfer (resolution criterion satisfaction)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Either Bluebuck OR Thylacine reaches active embryo-transfer pipeline before window closecascade #1 · pending · 2029-05-02 — Live Bluebuck calf born — full de-extinction success (cascade beyond pack window)pre #4 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · partial · 2026-04-30 — Figure publishes weekly production update confirming sustained 1-robot-per-hour cadencepre #1 · pending · 2026-08-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ first-pass yield holds >=80% on quarterly disclosurecascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Cumulative Figure 03 deployments crosses 1,000 unitscascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Independent third-party verifies 30-day sustained 1/hr production ratecascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — BotQ #2 (or Phase 2 expansion) site groundbreaking or staffing ramp announcementpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Global humanoid deployment exceeds 19,000 units across 15+ operatorspre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Figure AI annual production capacity reaches 12,000 units/year (BotQ)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — UBTECH Walker S2 mass production with >800M yuan order book reaches 1,000+ deliveredpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Cascade: Industry tracker reports >=5 vendors over 1,000-unit cumulative deployment by EOY 2027pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-27 — NASA Administrator confirms Artemis III pivots from lunar landing to Earth-orbit HLS/EVA testpre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Axiom AxEMU spacesuit test flight readiness review completedpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-08 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX Starship HLS uncrewed orbital demonstration completedpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Artemis III launches as Earth-orbit HLS/AxEMU rendezvous test mission (no lunar landing)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Artemis IV designated as first crewed lunar landing mission (2028)pre #4 · hit · 2025-03-01 — Europa Clipper Mars gravity assist (March 2025 — preceding Earth flyby)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Europa Clipper instrument deployment / cruise calibration phasepre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-03 — Europa Clipper Earth gravity assist closest approach (~3,200 km)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Magnetometer calibration data published from Earth flybycascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Spacecraft trajectory enters Jupiter-bound cruise post-flybypre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Falcon 9 launch services contract finalization for Haven-1pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Haven-1 launches on Falcon 9 (current targeted window May 2026)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Vast-1 first crewed mission to Haven-1pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Earth gravity assist: ESCAPADE flies ≤600 km of Earth and executes Mars escape burnspre #5 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Mars trans-injection cruise telemetry confirms nominal trajectory toward Sep 2027 arrivalpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-31 — Mars Orbit Insertion: 11-minute burns place Blue + Gold in highly elliptical orbitspre #6 · pending · 2026-10-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First commercial AI accelerator on N2 (Nvidia Rubin / AMD MI400 / Apple) shipspre #4 · pending · 2027-01-03 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — A16 (1.6nm) risk production tape-out at TSMCpre #2 · pending · 2027-04-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Cascade: hyperscaler 2027 capex guidance cites N2/A16 capacity as bottleneckpre #5 · hit · 2026-01-28 — Moltbook launches with 150K+ AI agentspre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-10 — Meta acquires Moltbookpre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Moltbook crosses 1M total registered AI agentscascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Second autonomous agent platform launches with >100K agentscascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Closed-loop digital economy emerges (agents transact autonomously)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-03 — Memory consumes ~30% of hyperscaler AI capex in 2026 confirmedpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Q2 2026 memory-maker earnings confirm 30%+ memory capex sharepre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — NVIDIA secures preferential HBM supply terms below market ratescascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — DRAM prices more than double in 2026 vs 2025 baselinecascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-15 — Hyperscaler total capex in 2026 reaches ~$600-725 billioncascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Memory pricing surge triggers 2027 industry margin compression and EPS missespre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-24 — Three-stage payload hits credential / Kubernetes / backdoor at scalepre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second wave of AI-package supply-chain CVE during 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Enterprise breach attributable to AI-package compromise reported in SEC 8-Kpre #1 · pending · 2027-08-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Sequoia/A16Z formally publish 'agentic leverage' underwriting modelpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Solopreneur stack cost falls below $15K/yr with full agent toolchainpre #4 · pending · 2027-02-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Middle management headcount falls 15%+ at Fortune 500pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First public S-1 / IPO from sub-10-employee company with >$50M ARRpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Meta + Microsoft 20K combined cuts cite AI as causepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — GPT-5 (or GPT-5.5) frontier reasoning model widely deployed in enterprisepre #4 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Public corporate-collapse signal: >=2 Fortune 500 firms enter restructuring citing AI failurepre #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs cross 500Kcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Cumulative 2026 AI-attributed layoffs reach 1.1M — Blundin specific targetpre #6 · hit · 2025-08-15 — Varda Series C ($187M) closes — capital for commercial scalepre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Varda W-4 mission in orbit; W-5 expected before end of yearpre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Varda begins biologics (monoclonal antibody) crystallization programcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — First commercial pharma drug returned from microgravity demonstrably superiorcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FDA / partner announces clinical pathway for orbital-manufactured pharmapre #4 · overdue · 2024-08-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2024-09-12 — Salesforce Agentforce consumption-pricing pivot announcedpre #2 · overdue · 2025-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-10-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major SaaS vendor reports YoY net revenue retention declinecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First major SaaS company (top 25 by revenue) acquired or restructured citing AI displacementcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Outcome-based / agent-based pricing exceeds 25% of new SaaS dealspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-28 — AI clone leads public-company earnings call (AI-CEO proxy event)pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First fully-AI-operated entity reports ≥$10M annual revenuepre #2 · pending · 2027-08-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — AI-operated entity reaches billion-dollar valuation (Mostaque's 'AI billionaire')pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk announces Mars 2026 mission deprioritized, delayed 5-7 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Starship orbital refueling demonstration completedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 2026 Mars transfer window (Nov-Dec 2026) closes with zero Starship launchescascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX Starship cumulative successful test flights reach 15+ by end of 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Next viable Mars window targeted by SpaceX shifts to 2028/29pre #6 · hit · 2026-05-01 — AI agent registers EIN, opens bank account, and operates as autonomous corporationpre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First single-founder company achieves $1B annualized revenuepre #2 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI-operated company crosses $1B valuation with no human CEOpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-06 — Anthropic Q1 2026 labor market report identifies 4 most-exposed sectorspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Junior SWE employment drops ~20% post-ChatGPTpre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Entry-level postings fall 35% from Jan 2023 baselinepre #2 · pending · 2026-06-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — AI-driven 0.13-0.20% nonfarm-employment displacement confirmedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-leveraged firms post >=10% productivity gains for retained workerscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Net 4% reduction across AI-exposed sectors confirmed in 2026 BLS datapre #5 · overdue · 2026-02-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-15 — Apptronik Apollo deployed at Mercedes-Benz manufacturing plant for tote deliverypre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour throughput at BotQpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — First city/state municipal humanoid-as-service contract announcedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Hundreds of robotics companies confirmed in active humanoid commercial pilotscascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Cumulative humanoid robots deployed in commercial workforce >=10,000 unitspre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2025-12-01 — Salesforce / McKinsey / Cisco surveys show >=50% of execs say agentic AI critical to survival by 2027pre #4 · pending · 2026-09-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Agentic AI deployment crosses 50% adoption among Fortune 500pre #2 · pending · 2027-02-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First publicly-traded ExO-native enterprise IPOs at $10B+ valuationcascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Aggregate W-2 employment in Fortune 500 declines >=5% YoYpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Eric Schmidt projects 30% annual productivity gain from AIpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Frontier lab discloses ≥50% AI-authored code in productionpre #4 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First documented case of AI generating ≥80% of new scientific paper output at major labpre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — xAI Colossus crosses 555K GPUspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-08 — Microsoft contracts 30K Rubin GPUs at Norway data centerpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US government action: data-center grid build-out Defense Production Act invocationpre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Hundreds-of-millions GPUs deployed across leading clusters by end-2027cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-30 — TSMC Arizona phase 2 begins 3nm mass productionpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — China data center construction capacity disclosure (MIIT or equivalent)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Chinese frontier model trained on domestic chips reaches Claude/GPT-class capabilitycascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — U.S. export-control modification or enforcement gap announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Chinese AI lab announces frontier-scale training run on domestic infrastructurepre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — BLS publishes Q1 2026 wage data showing data-center technician wage growthcascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Major hyperscaler announces dedicated trade-skills training partnershipcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Major union (IBEW, UA) reports 20%+ apprenticeship enrollment growthcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Six-figure wages disclosed for AI-DC construction tradespre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First Vera Rubin systems deployed at Stargate sitespre #5 · pending · 2027-02-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI Stargate international expansion (Argentina 100 MW phase)pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — OpenAI share of global AI training compute exceeds 25%pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Alphabet long-term debt quadrupled to $46.5B in 2025pre #5 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Hyperscalers raised $108B in debt during 2025 alonepre #4 · hit · 2026-02-06 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex aggregate confirmed >$600Bpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Goldman: hyperscaler capex 2025-2027 will reach $1.15T (vs $477B 2022-24)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q1-Q2 2026 hyperscaler earnings reaffirm capex guidance unchanged or upcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Credit markets show stress: hyperscaler bond spreads widen >50bps in 2026pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — IEA annual outlook updates AI-DC share of global power growth ≥20%pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — US utility capex commitments cross $1.4T cumulative for AI grid buildpre #4 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Behind-the-meter natural gas + nuclear PPAs reach 50 GW signedpre #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — US DC power shortfall reaches 44 GW (worst case)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — 126 GW/yr DC demand growth realized 2026-2028 cumulativelypre #5 · hit · 2024-09-03 — Morgan Stanley research publishes 2.5B tons CO2 cumulative emissions through 2030 thesispre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Hyperscaler 2026 sustainability reports show emissions trajectory off-targetpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-09 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major hyperscaler walks back 2030 net-zero pledge or extends timelinecascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Carbon removal market scales 5x to meet data-center decarbonization demandcascade #3 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Climate policy compliance gap formally documented in COP/IPCC outputscascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Annual data-center GHG emissions rise to ~600 Mt CO2-equiv by 2030 (3x 2024)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — NVIDIA Rubin reference design mandates liquid-to-chip coolingpre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Major hyperscaler (Microsoft / Google / Meta) publishes WUE alongside PUE in sustainability reportpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Liquid cooling commands ~65% of liquid-cooling market in AI data centerspre #3 · pending · 2027-01-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Two-phase immersion cooling deployed at >5GW of new AI capacitypre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — AMD MI400 series (CDNA Next) ships at 40 PFLOPS FP4 / 432 GB HBM4 / 19.6 TB/spre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — FullFlat optical NVLink network topology demonstrated for inter-node uniform bandwidthpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Hardware-software co-design tooling (Nemotron-Flash / Liquid AI) hits production for inferencepre #2 · pending · 2027-05-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Hyperscaler announces dedicated 'AI utility' offering with SLA-backed inference uptime ≥99.99%pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Tech sector single-month layoffs exceed 45K (March 2026 worst month in 2 years)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BLS reports >5% YoY decline in entry-level white-collar job postingspre #4 · pending · 2027-05-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Inference cost-per-token drops 10x further by end-2027 (toward electricity floor)pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Major economic-policy report attributes >10% white-collar attrition to AIpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Big-4 consultancy launches outcome-based AI pricing pilotcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Major SaaS company announces shift to usage/outcome pricingcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Hyperscaler (AWS, Azure, GCP) launches outcome-based AI service tiercascade #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Industry analyst declares 'outcome economy' as dominant pricing trendpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Equinix raises full-year 2026 guidance after Q1 strengthpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — xScale program reaches >=2 GW total capacity / >=$23B investment commitmentpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — AI/HPC bookings remain >50% of net new revenue mixpre #1 · pending · 2026-11-15 — First xScale customer onboarding milestone (Q4 2026)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Equinix delivers >=80% of 2026 announced project portfolio operational by year-endpre #6 · pending · 2026-07-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Fabric8Labs pilot production facility operationalpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — ECAM cold plates demonstrate 35-48% cooling improvement over microchannelspre #3 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First hyperscaler design win for ECAM cold plates announcedpre #1 · pending · 2027-07-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — ECAM-printed cold plates ship in production AI rack at scale (>10k units)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-17 — BYD, Geely, Nissan adopt NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion for L4 vehiclespre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mercedes-Benz S-Class L4 chauffeured experience commercialcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Edge AI inference compute units cross 100M shipped (cumulative)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First production agricultural robot fleet >10K unitspre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Deloitte/EY full-year 2026 GDP forecasts converge at ~2.0%pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — BEA Q1 2026 advance estimate: 2.0% real GDP growthpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Q1 2026 AI capex contributed 75% of GDP increasepre #1 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cascade: AI-capex slowdown narrative emerges in 2H 2026 commentarycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — AI productivity gains lag — show up in 2027+ datacascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-28 — Full-year 2026 GDP final reading lands 1.6-2.5%pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Microgrid + DERMS adoption crosses 18.5 GWh installed globallycascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 72% of new US grid additions through 2030 are solar/storage/microgridcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major utility deploys DERMS at scale to coordinate residential VPPcascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Residential solar+battery attach rate >=50% in CA/AZ/TX new installationscascade #4 · pending · 2029-03-16 — FERC issues final rule mandating DERMS interconnection standardspre #6 · hit · 2026-01-26 — CATL launches commercial sodium-ion battery productionpre #5 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-05 — First mass-produced sodium-ion EV unveiled (Changan + CATL)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-28 — QuantumScape Eagle Line opens with QSE-5 cells deliveredpre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Toyota begins solid-state battery productioncascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Third non-lithium chemistry (LFMP, lithium-sulfur, or zinc-air) commercializespre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Uber AV service deployed in ≥10 citiespre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — First charging-network operator reports ≥40% revenue from AV-fleet utilization guaranteespre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI co-authored physics paper published in top peer-reviewed journalpre #5 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — DeepMind publishes AI-driven novel theoretical-physics result with experimental predictionpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-15 — AI system unifies GR and QM into validated mathematical frameworkpre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-17 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-22 — Tesla Q1 2026 earnings: Fremont line conversion confirmed for late July/Augpre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-07 — Optimus low-volume production starts at Fremont (summer 2026)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Optimus retail price publicly disclosed at $20-30K per unitcascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — First Optimus retail customer / external sales contract announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative external Optimus units sold >=100pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Optimus integration testing on Starship payload mock-upcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX confirms Starship V3 readiness for Mars launch windowcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Optimus reaches Mars surface in 2026 launchcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-01 — Mars launch window opens November 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-16 — If 2026 launch slips, formal target shifts to 2028 transfer windowpre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Gwynne Shotwell publicly states 140-145 Falcon 9 launches target for 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Artemis IV Moon mission targeting 2028 confirmed by Shotwellpre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — SpaceX Falcon 9 H1 2026 launch cadence on track for 70+ launches by mid-yearpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-01 — SpaceX achieves 140 Falcon 9 launches by year-end 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Starship operational for AI satellite mass deployment by 2027pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — GPT-5 / Claude Opus 5 release with claimed PhD-level reasoningcascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-17 — MMLU saturated (≥95%) by all frontier modelscascade #3 · pending · 2026-08-16 — GPQA-Diamond benchmark crosses 90% by frontier modelcascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Aschenbrenner (or peer) publishes 'Situational Awareness II' or similar treatise marking AGI thresholdcascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #4 · overdue · 2025-04-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-07-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · hit · 2025-11-12 — WSJ confirms OpenAI 2025 financial loss disclosurecascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — OpenAI ARR crosses $25B thresholdcascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — OpenAI 2026 financial disclosure shows ~$14B+ lossescascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — OpenAI Stargate $500B partnership delivers first 10GW phasecascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #6 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearspre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-19 — We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-13 — By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.cascade #4 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.cascade #5 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.pre #6 · hit · 2025-07-15 — July 2025 reversal of H20 chip banpre #5 · hit · 2025-08-11 — Trump-Nvidia 15% China revenue deal announcedpre #4 · overdue · 2025-09-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · overdue · 2025-12-30 — First Nvidia quarterly earnings disclosing China revenue post-dealpre #2 · overdue · 2026-02-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-02 — Legal/constitutional challenge to revenue-share arrangementcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-19 — We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Other countries impose similar revenue-share on US tech exportscascade #3 · pending · 2027-02-13 — By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-01 — Huawei Ascend 950PR begins mass production at SMICpre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — ByteDance + Alibaba large Ascend 950PR purchase orders confirmed ($5B+ scale)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Huawei in-house HBM ships in 950PR variant (resilience milestone)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SMIC reaches 60K wafers/month advanced-node (7nm/5nm) capacitycascade #4 · pending · 2026-11-14 — Cascade: NVIDIA China data-center revenue lags expectations as Ascend 950PR captures sharecascade #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Cumulative Ascend 910C + 950 series shipments cross 1.6M dies in 2026cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — TSMC 2nm baseline at end-2025: 30K-40K wafers/monthpre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-27 — TSMC 3nm output target raised to 180K wafers/month by EOY 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — TSMC 2nm priced 50% above 3nmcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — TSMC 2nm reaches ~100K wafers/month by end-2026 (matches thesis)cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commoncascade #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: TSMC 2nm output exceeds 3nm by 2x by 2027cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2026-03-10 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commoncascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Samsung 2nm yields reach 55-60% commercially viable levelpre #3 · pending · 2026-06-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Samsung 2nm foundry capacity scales to 100K wpm in 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Samsung wins major Western customer (AMD, Qualcomm, Tesla, or hyperscaler) for sub-7nm productioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Combined Samsung 3nm + 5nm + 2nm sub-7nm capacity reaches 150K wpmcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Samsung 1c DRAM scales to 200K wafers/month (related capacity buildout)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-25 — Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commoncascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — TSMC advanced chip capacity booked out through 2028 confirmedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · hit · 2026-03-31 — TSMC 3nm and 5nm production fully booked for 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — SMIC advanced-process capacity remains <125,000 wafers in 2026 (8x gap holds)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-14 — NVIDIA Q2-Q4 2026 data-center revenue confirms 800K wafer absorptioncascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — TSMC's 3nm capacity reaches 180,000 wafers/month by end-2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 release confirmedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — Quantization breakthrough — V4 reduces inference FLOPs to 27% of V3.2pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Qwen 3.6 release with sub-10B competitive frontiercascade #2 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Chinese frontier model crosses ≥10T total parameterscascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Retrospective verdict on '100x leap by 2026' — likely PARTIALcascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — FP4 inference lands in mainstream open-source frameworkspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-24 — DeepSeek V4 KV cache quantization confirms architecture decouplingpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Ternary-weight production model released by major labcascade #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Embargoed-nation AI lab demonstrates frontier capability via FP4/ternary stackcascade #3 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #4 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #5 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · overdue · 2026-05-17 — Hyperscalers sign 3-year prepaid GPU supply contractspre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Hyperscaler 2026 AI infrastructure capex exceeds $660Bpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Semi sector earnings beat consensus through Q3 2026pre #1 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Major analyst downgrades semis citing AI bubble in 2H 2026cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-20 — Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — HBM4 mass production launches February 2026 at SK Hynixpre #4 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Server DRAM contract prices rise 55-60% in Q1 2026pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — HBM4 reaches $500/stack pricing benchmarkpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Memory stocks (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung) outperform PHLX SOX in 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshipcascade #5 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-08-12 — Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-08-30 — NVDA trades through $250 within 12-month target windowpre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Hyperscaler 2026 capex commits exceed $600B per CreditSightspre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — MS raises NVDA target above $250 to next bull-case rungcascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Rubin R100 begins customer sampling Q4 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — HBM4 mass production crosses 50K wafers/monthpre #1 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Rubin Ultra NVL576 product unveilcascade #1 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Rubin contributes ≥30% of NVIDIA Data Center revenuecascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-20 — Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-19 — We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-02-13 — By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-24 — AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-01-30 — Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshipcascade #4 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-08-12 — Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)cascade #6 · pending · 2031-05-22 — SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-24 — AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-24 — The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-11 — Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-20 — Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.cascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-17 — Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-15 — Wilson confirms AI productivity diffusion thesis in 2026 US Outlook podcastpre #5 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-03 — S&P 500 EPS revisions trend upward to ~17% growth consensuspre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Operating margin expansion observed in non-megacap S&P sectorspre #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Multiple-expansion surprise materializes in 2026 H2cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — S&P 500 closes 2026 within 5% of 7,800 target (i.e., 7,400-8,200 range)cascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.pre #6 · overdue · 2026-02-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-31 — DRAM consumer prices reach $700 (March 2026)pre #4 · overdue · 2026-04-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-30 — HBM contract prices up high-teens to low-twenties in 2026pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — NVIDIA cuts RTX 50-series consumer Blackwell production 30-40%cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — HBM consumes 23% of total DRAM wafer capacitycascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — Cascade: Memory price relief delayed until 2027-2029cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starshipcascade #6 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — DeepMind / Google AI fluid-dynamics paper or AlphaProof Navier-Stokes preprint surfacescascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — AlphaProof / Gemini Deep Think achieves IMO-gold tier on adult research math benchmark (FrontierMath / Putnam)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-07 — Terence Tao or Fields-medal mathematician publicly endorses AI proof candidatecascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Clay Mathematics Institute publishes statement evaluating any AI-assisted submissioncascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-31 — If ungranted by 2026-12-31, claim downgrades and probability decays toward 0.05cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-02-13 — OpenAI announces GPT-5.2 derives new theoretical physics resultpre #5 · hit · 2026-02-13 — Peer-reviewed arXiv preprint with IAS/Cambridge/Harvard/OpenAI authorspre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Second AI-derived physics result published by different labcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major physics journal accepts AI-derived result for publicationcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · pending · 2026-06-25 — Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chpre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — AI surpasses median IMO gold medalist at IMO 2026 or 2027pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Fields-Medal-tier mathematician publicly endorses AI as research collaboratorpre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI co-authored proof of previously-open math problem accepted in Annals of Math / Inventionescascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-20 — Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.cascade #3 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2063-06-21 — Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionpre #4 · pending · 2026-11-30 — SWE-Bench Verified reaches ≥95%pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-02 — AI achieves Codeforces Grandmaster (2400+) or top-100 ICPC equivalentpre #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Frontier lab uses 'world-class programmer' framing in official communicationspre #1 · pending · 2027-11-15 — AI solves research-level (PhD-difficulty) coding problem unaidedcascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Frontier model passes standardized senior+ engineering interview processcascade #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cascade: open-source model crosses world-class programmer thresholdcascade #3 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missioncascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-30 — Frontier lab announces general-knowledge-worker capability claimcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BLS shows multiple consecutive quarters of white-collar employment declinecascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Major consultancy reports AI-driven cost reduction in target functionscascade #4 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Cumulative knowledge-worker layoffs >250K in 18-month windowcascade #5 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · overdue · 2025-05-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · overdue · 2025-09-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · hit · 2025-08-15 — Musk publicly claims Grok 5 has 10% probability of achieving AGIpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — xAI announces Grok 5 with 6T parameters and AGI-class capability claimspre #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Frontier capability ceiling visible: GPT-5/Mythos/Gemini 3/Grok 5 cluster on similar benchmarkscascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — Independent benchmark (METR / ARC-AGI / FrontierMath) characterizes a 2025-2026 model as superhuman across most professicascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Mainstream consensus shifts to AGI/superintelligence post-2026 (2027-2030)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-05 — By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintpre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-17 — Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-18 — By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.cascade #4 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.cascade #5 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Blue Moon MK1 cargo soft-lands near Shackleton Craterpre #4 · pending · 2027-01-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Blue Origin lands Shackleton cargo BEFORE SpaceX (Diamandis prediction holds)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — SpaceX Starship lunar lander HLS demo flight (Artemis III prep)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #4 · hit · 2025-12-01 — OpenAI Frontier Alliance launches with McKinsey/BCG/Accenture/Capgeminipre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — McKinsey survey shows >20% of organizations have scaled AI agentscascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Named F500 announces AI-native operating-model transformationcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — BCG reports >40% of companies successfully scaled AI to deliver business valuecascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — F500 average AI-related headcount restructuring announced (cascade)cascade #5 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #6 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.pre #3 · overdue · 2025-05-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-08-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-16 — Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-23 — Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencecascade #3 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearscascade #4 · pending · 2032-07-07 — GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.cascade #5 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).cascade #6 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearspre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — OpenAI deprecates SWE-Bench Verified as too contaminatedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-05-01 — Claude Mythos Preview crosses 90% on SWE-Bench Verifiedcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Long-horizon multi-day software-engineering benchmark crossed by Claude/GPTcascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Iterative self-improvement loop demonstrated on coding agentcascade #4 · pending · 2036-07-03 — Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominatepre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Starlink 2026 revenue exceeds $20Bpre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Starship V3 / orbital refueling demonstrated (2/3 valuation pillar)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2010-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2015-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2020-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-30 — SpaceX Starship V3 reaches stable Earth orbit (precondition for tanker demo)pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-30 — First two-Starship orbital propellant transfer demonstration: target + chaser dockingpre #3 · pending · 2027-03-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Multi-tanker depot architecture demonstrated (≥3 sequential propellant fills)cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — NASA Artemis HLS depot operations declared 'mission-ready' (10-tanker architecture)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-15 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2024-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2025-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2025-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2012-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2017-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2021-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
732 plotted · 372 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.
AMZN-impacting (4)
CMQ_056
SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
82% → 19% · resolves 2026-12
-63pp
235_019
SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.
65% → 13% · resolves 2027-06
-52pp
CMQ_055
SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV
Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes.
78% → 29% · resolves 2028-09
-49pp
CMQ_053
SYM · FANUY · IRBT · SERV
Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing.
99% → 55% · resolves 2026-09
-44pp
CRWV-impacting (4)
CYB_024
CRWV · WULF · EQIX · OKLO
The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security...
72% → 17% · resolves 2030-09
-55pp
248_019
TSEM · SKYT · MRCY · RKLB
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.
65% → 12% · resolves 2026-06
-53pp
CMQ_030
NVDA · ALAB · CRWV · NBIS
In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio).
78% → 34% · resolves 2026-12
-44pp
INF_049
CRWV · NBIS · APLD · IREN
Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon supply — has become the absolute primary bottleneck for AI scalability, and these concentrated power needs cannot be reliably connected to existing public ...
92% → 50% · resolves 2026-11
-42pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.