0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — SpaceX/Starlink V3 launch cadence reaches >50 satellites/month pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-01 — First commercial orbital data center deployment announced by hyperscaler pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First MW-scale orbital compute payload reaches operational status pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cumulative orbital data center capacity exceeds 100 MW cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Late 2026 launch of AI V1 prototype satellites (70-100 kW per satellite, on-orbit testing) pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-06 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First peer-reviewed AI breakthrough in physics or materials science attributed to AI-generated hypothesis pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2030-01-12 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2030-10-01 — Operational orbital data center reaches 1 GW aggregate compute capacity cascade #1 · pending · 2032-01-01 — Formal lunar-mass-driver / Dyson-swarm engineering study published by NASA, ESA, or DARPA cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — US/Caltech SSPP follow-on commercial demo announced pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — China Geostationary 10 kW SBSP demonstration pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-14 — Second sovereign nation announces independent SBSP program pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — First commercial Dyson-swarm-precursor satellite constellation funded cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — China megawatt-scale GEO SBSP demonstration cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · hit · 2024-11-01 — Smithsonian + frontier research consensus: Mars colony food likely lab-grown meat / cell-cultured / plant-based, not liv pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — SpaceX 2026/27 Mars cargo window — uncrewed Starship Mars cargo attempt pre #3 · pending · 2027-04-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-02-15 — International space-law / planetary-protection guidance bans live-animal foodstock transit cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — SpaceX / NASA 2028/29 expanded launch window — manifest disclosure pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind) announce reduced power-projection scenarios pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Triplet-superconductor / zero-loss compute breakthrough demonstrated at scale pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Starcloud / Lockheed Starshield orbital data-center constellation reaches construction milestone pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Wissner-Gross / Bezos / Musk public revision of moon-disassembly thesis cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Fusion or thorium SMR power-density breakthrough commercially announced pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-23 — Gemini 3 / Claude Opus 4.7 / GPT-5.5 frontier benchmark releases all within 6 months pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-14 — SpaceX (now including xAI) IPO road show begins June 2026 pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Moonshots podcast publishes >2 episodes per week through Q3 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public sentiment / media usage of 'singularity' language spikes in 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #4 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-15 — Moonshots podcast announces house/studio relocation (Airbnb or shared compound) pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Moonshots podcast publishes longer-format / continuous content episodes (4+ hour OR daily cadence) pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Co-hosts Salim Ismail and Dave Blundin appear in shared physical setting with Diamandis cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Q3 2026 window check-in: continuous-podcast format established cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cascade: Other Diamandis ventures (Abundance Summit, A360) shift to shared-compound format cascade #3 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Google Project Suncatcher launches first 2 prototype TPU satellites pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Starcloud closes Series B / IPO at $3B+ valuation pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — FCC approves first dedicated orbital-DC license / spectrum allocation pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-30 — First multi-satellite orbital compute cluster (≥10 nodes) demonstrated cascade #1 · pending · 2028-10-31 — MISS confirmation: zero Dyson swarms by Wissner-Gross window end cascade #2 · pending · 2040-07-01 — Self-replicating space manufacturing demo (key Dyson swarm prerequisite) cascade #3 · pending · 2075-07-02 — First partial Dyson swarm satellite launched (single-satellite proof) pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-01 — Long March 10 first uncrewed orbital flight test pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #4 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Lanyue lander integrated landing/takeoff test completed pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Robotic Mengzhou-Lanyue uncrewed lunar dress rehearsal pre #2 · pending · 2029-09-30 — China names two-astronaut crew for lunar mission pre #1 · pending · 2030-07-16 — Crewed Mengzhou launch on Long March 10 toward Moon cascade #1 · pending · 2031-05-02 — If landing succeeds: ILRS basic-station construction roadmap activated cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data center on-orbit and operational (Lumen Orbit prototype) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — SpaceX Starthink AI V1 70-140 kW satellites launched pre #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Rocket equation barrier (mass-to-orbit cost) limits compute density rationality pre #1 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Space-based solar power demonstration delivers >=1 MW to terrestrial grid cascade #1 · pending · 2031-03-17 — Orbital compute capacity exceeds 100 MW aggregate cascade #2 · pending · 2033-03-16 — First gigawatt-scale orbital constellation operational (Dyson swarm phase 1) cascade #3 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #4 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-28 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-31 — RS-25 engines ship from Stennis to KSC for Artemis III core stage integration pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-09 — SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Artemis III SLS core stage fully integrated in VAB pre #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Starship HLS or Blue Moon flight-ready demonstrator on orbit cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Artemis 3 launches in 2027 target window cascade #2 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #6 · pending · 2030-07-05 — Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-09 — SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — NASA Artemis II crewed mission completes lunar flyby pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon completes uncrewed lunar landing demonstration pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO. pre #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Lunar Gateway PPE/HALO modules launched and operational pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Artemis IV crewed launch occurs cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #4 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #5 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Starship V3 inaugural flight pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public confirmation of skipped 2026 Mars window pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Full-scale Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demonstration attempted cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Artemis HLS lunar lander schedule slip announcement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Updated Mars timeline pushes uncrewed mission to 2028-29 window pre #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #5 · pending · 2028-09-30 — Mengzhou crewed spacecraft uncrewed flight test in lunar transfer orbit pre #4 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Full uncrewed Mengzhou-Lanyue lunar dress rehearsal mission pre #3 · pending · 2029-04-10 — Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship pre #2 · pending · 2029-06-18 — SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. pre #1 · pending · 2029-12-15 — Two LM-10 launches within 6 weeks (crew + lander) demonstrating dual-launch cadence cascade #1 · pending · 2031-04-16 — If landing succeeds: China publishes ILRS construction plan for 2031-2035 phase cascade #2 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #3 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. pre #6 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Android 17 ships post-quantum cryptography by default pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cloudflare reaches full post-quantum security across edge by 2029 pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Google announces logical-qubit milestone capable of factoring small RSA pre #3 · pending · 2029-02-05 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-04-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First reported real-world post-quantum cryptographic compromise (harvest-now-decrypt-later) cascade #2 · pending · 2031-07-08 — Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-04 — Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-24 — Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2036-10-04 — Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years pre #3 · hit · 2026-02-11 — BIP-360 (Pay-to-Merkle-Root) merged into Bitcoin BIP repository pre #2 · hit · 2026-03-20 — BTQ Technologies deploys functional post-quantum Bitcoin testnet pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Bitcoin Core release with PQ migration tooling for mainnet cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Bitcoin user-activated soft fork or signaling for PQ migration cascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Cryptographically-relevant quantum computer demonstrated against ECDSA-256 pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Arc Institute or CZI Virtual Cell program releases >=10x scaled multimodal cell foundation model pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — First full-cell multimodal foundation model demonstrates causal-transport prediction across cell types in Nature/Science pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — AI-designed perturbation prediction reaches AlphaFold-tier benchmark accuracy via classical compute pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-14 — Major pharma signs >=$500M deal predicated on classical-scaled virtual-cell platform without quantum-computing dependenc pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-30 — SpaceX FCC filing for up to 1M orbital data-center satellites pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US state passes new data-center moratorium / restrictive permitting cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FCC grants partial authorization for orbital data-center constellation cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data-center customer contract announced cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative LEO/SSO compute capacity exceeds 1 MW across constellations cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Maine data center moratorium passes legislature, vetoed by governor pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-14 — 11+ states introduce data center moratorium bills in 2026 pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Local moratoriums spread across municipalities cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First operational Dyson swarm prototype or megastructure demo cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. pre #6 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Maine House sustains Mills' veto — moratorium dies; thesis premise (statewide moratorium gives time) invalidated pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Maine Data Center Advisory Council established by EO (replaces moratorium pathway) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — SpaceX Starcloud-2 launch with multi-GPU (Blackwell) orbital compute payload pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-15 — Other state passes data-center moratorium or significant siting restriction (substitution test) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — DoD FY2026 H1 commits >$32B contract ceiling to AI / autonomy / cyber pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First public combat / OPS use of AI-coordinated autonomous drone swarm by US/allied force pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-07-31 — NATO doctrine update formalizes 'machine-speed decision-making' tactical role pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Replicator-2 first combatant-command operational fielding (>1,000 units in theater) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Cascade: NATO ally announces national-scale 'cheap mass' drone procurement program pre #3 · pending · 2028-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Cancellation or substantial restructuring of a legacy exquisite platform program pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Quantinuum / IBM cross 10+ logical qubits within 2025 pre #5 · overdue · 2025-09-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · hit · 2025-10-07 — 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for macroscopic quantum tunneling pre #3 · hit · 2025-12-15 — Vienna team demonstrates quantum interference at 170,000 amu mass pre #2 · hit · 2025-12-15 — Macroscopicity record μ=15.5 published pre #1 · overdue · 2026-01-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-30 — MicroStrategy/Strategy crosses 1M BTC holdings pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Public companies holding BTC as treasury asset exceed 300 globally pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — AI-displacement-driven QE: Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion >=$1T in single year tied to labor market interventio pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-22 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: BTC hits >=$500K per coin (Saylor's mathematical-defense thesis activates) pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — AI co-authored physics paper published in top peer-reviewed journal pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — DeepMind publishes AI-driven novel theoretical-physics result with experimental prediction pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-15 — AI system unifies GR and QM into validated mathematical framework pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Bipartisan US bill targeting China access to semiconductor manufacturing tools pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — US industrial-policy package targeting commercial robotics or hardware sector pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-10-31 — Major US automaker or industrial firm publicly cites loss of price/scale to Chinese competitor pre #1 · pending · 2029-11-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Pentagon agentic-AI prototype delivers first operational decision-loop in classified env pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Replicator scales from 'hundreds' to >10,000 fielded autonomous attritable systems pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — China publishes equivalent autonomous-warfare program with comparable scale pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-06 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-14 — First orbital compute demonstrator launch (Starcloud or SpaceX prototype) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-01 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — FCC issues partial / waiver authorization for SpaceX orbital data center system pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Rival hyperscaler files for or announces orbital compute system (Google / AWS / Microsoft) pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-04 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2029-04-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. cascade #2 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 28 plotted · 2 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.