Timeline Fan

57 of 57 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

Filter by ticker

Click a symbol to scope to claims affecting that company

GSAT 79 FLY 76 KRMN 71 NNE 57 AMZN 55 MYNA 43 VOYG 43 LUNR 42 BA 41 LMT 41 ASTS 36 BKSY 36 IRDM 36 LHX 36

Filters

Fork by

Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

57 plotted · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to NNE.

NNE-impacting (4)

CYB_024

AEP · AMZN · BE · BLDP

The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security...

72% → 17% · resolves 2030-09

-55pp

INF_057

AEP · AMZN · BE · BLDP

Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035 — equivalent to more than 7x Grand Coulee Dam output and roughly 1,000 Helion 50-MW reactors.

8% → 43% · resolves 2035-11

+35pp

246_012

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).

65% → 31% · resolves 2027-10

-34pp

INF_056

AEP · AMZN · BE · BLDP

Helion will supply OpenAI with 5 gigawatts of fusion electricity by 2030 (roughly 100 Helion 50-MW reactors, equivalent to ~73% of Grand Coulee Dam) — a 100x step-up from Helion's existing Microsoft commitment.

15% → 46% · resolves 2030-10

+31pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.