0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC (early April 2026) pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX targets $1.75T-$2T valuation; $75B raise cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — SpaceX road show begins June 8, 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. cascade #3 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. cascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-15 — SpaceX prices and lists shares; first-day open vs offer price cascade #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Largest IPO in history: SpaceX raises >$50B cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. pre #3 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — SpaceX Starship V3 first flight test pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink V3 deployment using Starship begins cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX achieves 145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Launch-per-hour cadence remains aspirational vs ~1-3 per week reality cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years pre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Starship V3 inaugural flight pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public confirmation of skipped 2026 Mars window pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Full-scale Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demonstration attempted cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Artemis HLS lunar lander schedule slip announcement cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Updated Mars timeline pushes uncrewed mission to 2028-29 window pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk publicly delays Starship Mars launch beyond 2026 transfer window pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Cumulative orbital propellant transfer of >=100 metric tons demonstrated in single Starship test cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First Starship Block 3 successful flight test (Mars-capable variant) cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — November 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window closes without Starship launch cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: SpaceX shifts focus to Artemis 3 lunar mission as primary near-term Starship deployment cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-30 — SpaceX FCC filing for up to 1M orbital data-center satellites pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US state passes new data-center moratorium / restrictive permitting cascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FCC grants partial authorization for orbital data-center constellation cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data-center customer contract announced cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative LEO/SSO compute capacity exceeds 1 MW across constellations cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. pre #6 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Maine House sustains Mills' veto — moratorium dies; thesis premise (statewide moratorium gives time) invalidated pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Maine Data Center Advisory Council established by EO (replaces moratorium pathway) pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — SpaceX Starcloud-2 launch with multi-GPU (Blackwell) orbital compute payload pre #1 · pending · 2027-01-15 — Other state passes data-center moratorium or significant siting restriction (substitution test) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk announces Mars 2026 mission deprioritized, delayed 5-7 years pre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Starship orbital refueling demonstration completed cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 2026 Mars transfer window (Nov-Dec 2026) closes with zero Starship launches cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX Starship cumulative successful test flights reach 15+ by end of 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Next viable Mars window targeted by SpaceX shifts to 2028/29 pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Gwynne Shotwell publicly states 140-145 Falcon 9 launches target for 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Artemis IV Moon mission targeting 2028 confirmed by Shotwell pre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — SpaceX Falcon 9 H1 2026 launch cadence on track for 70+ launches by mid-year pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-01 — SpaceX achieves 140 Falcon 9 launches by year-end 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Starship operational for AI satellite mass deployment by 2027 target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 8 plotted · 15 outside x-range · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.