Timeline Fan

37 of 37 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPOAGIAI pauseASIMars uncrewedRecessionCompute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)
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Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)
Window
next 12 monext 24 monext 5 yr (default)5y + tail
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Resolved
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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100historyPMCI_FSLR_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — FSLR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_FTNT_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — FTNT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_CDNS_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — CDNS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐PMCI_MKSI_20260518 resolved miss on 2026-05-25 — MKSI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✗230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓PMCI_ENVX_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — ENVX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_QCOM_20260515 resolved hit on 2026-05-22 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✓PMCI_MU_20260515 resolved miss on 2026-05-22 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✗PMCI_RRX_20260519 resolved hit on 2026-05-26 — RRX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-19✓239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐PMCI_SNOW_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SNOW >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓PMCI_NVDA_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — NVDA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_TSLA_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — TSLA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_AGX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AGX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ALAB_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ALAB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ASML_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ASML >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CB_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_COHR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — COHR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CORZ_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — CORZ >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CRM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CRM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CRWD_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — CRWD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_CRWV_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CRWV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GEV_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GEV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗PMCI_FERG_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — FERG >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_FIX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — FIX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GEHC_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GEHC >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GFS_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GFS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_LITE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — LITE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_LMB_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — LMB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗PMCI_LRCX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — LRCX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_LUNR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — LUNR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_MRVL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MRVL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MSFT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MSFT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MTSI_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — MTSI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_MU_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_NVO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NVO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NXPI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NXPI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_OKLO_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — OKLO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ORCL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ORCL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RTX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RTX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RUN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RUN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_PLTR_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — PLTR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_PYPL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — PYPL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_QCOM_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_QLYS_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — QLYS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RBRK_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RBRK >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RIOT_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — RIOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_RIVN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RIVN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SAP_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SAP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TRU_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TRU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RKLB_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — RKLB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_RLAY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RLAY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ROOT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ROOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TXN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TXN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SYM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SYM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_T_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — T >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SERV_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SERV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TEM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TEM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TSEM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TSEM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TSM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TSM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_XIACY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — XIACY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_VRT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — VRT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AAPL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AAPL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_V_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — V >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_XYL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — XYL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TMUS_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TMUS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CIFR_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CIFR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SIEGY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SIEGY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SPOT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SPOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SMMNY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SMMNY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SBGSY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SBGSY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_XOM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — XOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_RYCEY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — RYCEY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_VZ_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — VZ >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BRK.B_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BRK.B >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BYDDY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BYDDY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_TM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — TM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_UBER_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — UBER >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_EADSY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — EADSY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_WDAY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — WDAY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓PMCI_VST_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — VST >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_SHOP_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — SHOP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ABT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ABT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ACLS_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ACLS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ACN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ACN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MCHP_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MCHP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ADBE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ADBE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ADI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ADI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AEHR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — AEHR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ALL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ALL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AMAT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AMAT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AMT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AMT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MDT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MDT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MLI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MLI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AMZN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AMZN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ANET_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ANET >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_APLD_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — APLD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ARM_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ARM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_ASTS_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — ASTS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_AMD_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_FRSH_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — FRSH >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_INTC_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — INTC >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_AVGO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AVGO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AYI_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AYI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_AZN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — AZN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BA_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BFLY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BFLY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_BTDR_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — BTDR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_BWXT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — BWXT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CAT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CAT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CEG_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CEG >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CHE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CHE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CIEN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CIEN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CINF_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CINF >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_CSCO_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — CSCO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_EME_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — EME >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_EPAM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — EPAM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ETN_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — ETN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_F_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — F >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GLW_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — GLW >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_GM_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_GOOGL_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — GOOGL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_HUT_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — HUT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_INFY_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — INFY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_IOT_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — IOT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_IREN_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — IREN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_LEU_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — LEU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_MA_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — MA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_META_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — META >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_MRNA_20260505 resolved hit on 2026-05-12 — MRNA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✓PMCI_NEE_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NEE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NET_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NET >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NFLX_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NFLX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_NOW_20260505 resolved miss on 2026-05-12 — NOW >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05✗PMCI_ANET_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — ANET >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_AMD_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_ACN_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — ACN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_FIX_20260506 resolved miss on 2026-05-13 — FIX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-06✗PMCI_CINF_20260507 resolved miss on 2026-05-14 — CINF >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-07✗PMCI_BFLY_20260507 resolved miss on 2026-05-14 — BFLY >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-07✗PMCI_BE_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_DVA_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — DVA >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_KTOS_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — KTOS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_S_20260511 resolved miss on 2026-05-18 — S >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-11✗PMCI_BE_20260512 resolved miss on 2026-05-19 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-12✗PMCI_FORM_20260513 resolved miss on 2026-05-20 — FORM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-13✗PMCI_AMKR_20260513 resolved miss on 2026-05-20 — AMKR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-13✗PMCI_AMD_20260513 resolved miss on 2026-05-20 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-13✗PMCI_QCOM_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_AMD_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — AMD >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_ICHR_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — ICHR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_MU_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_CRWV_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — CRWV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_ETN_20260514 resolved miss on 2026-05-21 — ETN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-14✗PMCI_CRWV_20260515 resolved miss on 2026-05-22 — CRWV >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✗PMCI_BE_20260515 resolved hit on 2026-05-22 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-15✓PMCI_LITE_20260518 resolved miss on 2026-05-25 — LITE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✗PMCI_MU_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — MU >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_BE_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — BE >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_SLDP_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — SLDP >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_QCOM_20260518 resolved hit on 2026-05-25 — QCOM >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-18✓PMCI_CB_20260601 resolved miss on 2026-06-08 — CB >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01✗PMCI_RMBS_20260601 resolved hit on 2026-06-08 — RMBS >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01✓PMCI_AMPX_20260601 resolved miss on 2026-06-08 — AMPX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-06-01✗231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2028FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2029FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2030FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2031FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2032FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2033FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2034FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2035FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2036FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2037FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2038FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2039FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2040FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2041FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2042FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2043FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2044FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2045FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2046FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · pending · 2027-09-16 — ATP-BIO consortium or NIH funds >=$50M dedicated organ-banking initiativepre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Reversibly cryopreserved mammalian organ successfully transplanted into recipientpre #2 · pending · 2028-09-30 — 21st Century Medicine or competitor publishes large-mammal whole-brain reversible vitrificationpre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — FDA opens pre-IND track for vitrified-organ transplant trialcascade #1 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First UNOS-listed transplant using cryopreserved organcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-18 — Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadecascade #2 · pending · 2030-10-10 — Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.cascade #3 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #4 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve epre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #3 · pending · 2028-12-31 — AI healthcare reduces all-cause mortality in any large-scale deploymentpre #2 · pending · 2029-07-01 — AI sudden-cardiac-death detection deployed at population scalepre #1 · pending · 2031-10-01 — Global daily mortality decreases despite population growthcascade #1 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-19 — VITARI pre-orders open H1 2026pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First VITARI commercial shipment in H2 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Independent customer benchmarks confirm $100/genome at >=Q30 90%cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-11-01 — State-level lab-grown meat bans repealed or struck downpre #4 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cultivated meat production cost falls below $20/lb wholesalepre #3 · pending · 2028-04-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-03-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — Cultivated meat captures >1% of US ground meat retail dollarspre #6 · pending · 2028-12-31 — AI-designed aging-reversal compound enters human trialpre #5 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathpre #4 · pending · 2029-12-31 — Annual healthy-LE gain crosses 0.5 year per calendar yearpre #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First demonstrated whole-organ regeneration in human trialpre #2 · pending · 2031-05-17 — Biological-age reversal demonstrated in healthy-cohort RCTpre #1 · pending · 2033-05-16 — Healthy life-expectancy reaches 1.0 year per calendar year (LEV operational)cascade #1 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #2 · pending · 2036-08-24 — Mass driver on the moon within 10 yearscascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Mouse whole-brain connectome project funded at >$500Mpre #1 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First whole-mouse-brain connectome publicationcascade #1 · pending · 2033-12-15 — First running mouse whole-brain emulationcascade #2 · pending · 2036-07-30 — Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longercascade #3 · pending · 2036-08-14 — People will be on Mars within 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-01 — First whole-human-brain connectome releasedpre #5 · hit · 2026-03-15 — Eon Systems demonstrates whole-fly multi-behavior emulationpre #4 · overdue · 2026-05-29 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Eon publishes Nature/bioRxiv paper on fly-brain emulationpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Eon announces mouse-brain connectome target with timelinecascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Mouse connectome generation funding round announcedcascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First mouse brain region (e.g., visual cortex) emulated end-to-endpre #6 · hit · 2026-03-16 — First multi-behavior cyber-Drosophila body-brain integration (March 2026)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-04 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-05-08 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Eon publishes mouse-brain partial emulation (~70M neurons)pre #2 · pending · 2029-05-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First peer-reviewed human cortical organoid + connectome integrationcascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First publicly announced commercial 'whole-brain digital twin' servicepre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Healthcare humanoid robot market size hits $2.96B in 2026pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Robotic-assisted surgery market crosses $14B globallypre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — AI diagnostic systems (Aidoc, Viz.ai) integrated in >50% of US hospitalspre #3 · pending · 2027-03-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Optimus / humanoid surgery demonstration on cadaver or live procedurecascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Universal access to AI-doctor better than richest-person care NOT achieved by 2028-11-30pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — FDA clearance of AI-as-medical-device for back pain triage or treatmentpre #4 · pending · 2028-04-30 — Major payer covers AI-driven back-pain therapypre #3 · pending · 2028-06-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-08-30 — Neuralink or competitor BCI receives FDA approval for chronic-pain indicationpre #1 · pending · 2029-03-01 — Population-scale outcomes evidence: AI back-pain interventions show >30% improvement vs SOCpre #6 · pending · 2027-03-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Colossal publishes peer-reviewed paper on novel-trait genetic engineering (beyond ancestral resurrection)pre #4 · pending · 2028-02-22 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-30 — First woolly mammoth born to Asian elephant surrogatepre #2 · pending · 2029-01-19 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Colossal or competitor announces first chimeric/de-novo designer creature program (e.g., novel mammal with non-ancestralcascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — First reportable engineering of a 'novel creature' (significantly outside species ancestor) in mammal or birdpre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Isomorphic Labs pipeline expands to 17+ active programs with Eli Lilly and Novartis partnerships in mid-trialspre #4 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #3 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First AI-designed drug receives FDA approval (any indication, primary structure designed by frontier model)pre #2 · pending · 2030-04-01 — First 'virtual cell' (full molecular-state predictive simulation) demonstrated for clinical-grade intervention modelingpre #1 · pending · 2031-03-17 — Cumulative AI-designed drug approvals reach 10+ across major disease categoriescascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-24 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-08-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2031-04-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · hit · 2025-01-30 — Khaleesi (third direwolf, female) birth announcementpre #1 · hit · 2025-10-01 — Direwolf pack social-development milestone (1-year birthday update)cascade #1 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Colossal announces new de-extinct species (bluebuck or other)cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Colossal announces additional direwolves (4th-onwards)cascade #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Woolly mammoth first birth (2028 target tracking)pre #6 · hit · 2026-02-12 — Engineered PETase enzyme paper (Bhattacharya et al.) published in FEBS Journal — highly active polyester degradationpre #5 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-10-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-12-15 — PETase/MHETase variant with gut-compatible pH/temperature window (pH 1-7, 37C) demonstratedpre #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First published in-vivo (animal model) study of orally-delivered plastic-degrading enzyme on microplastic absorptioncascade #1 · pending · 2027-05-17 — Supplement company / startup announces clinical work toward microplastic-degrading oral productpre #6 · pending · 2027-06-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Breaking publishes preclinical paper or whitepaper on human-body microplastic supplementpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Breaking environmental product (plastic-degrading microbe) hits commercial scale milestonepre #3 · pending · 2028-01-13 — First peer-reviewed human RCT data on a microplastic-clearance interventionpre #2 · pending · 2028-01-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Breaking launches DTC supplement product or files IND with FDApre #6 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Colossal mammoth embryos ready for elephant surrogate implantation by end of 2026pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — EXTEND artificial womb begins first-in-human clinical trials for premature infantspre #4 · pending · 2027-06-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First woolly mammoth calf born from edited Asian elephant surrogatepre #2 · pending · 2028-07-15 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2029-08-23 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2030-10-01 — Productionized de-extinction species via artificial wombs (event)pre #6 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First mammoth-edited embryo implanted in elephant surrogatepre #5 · pending · 2028-06-05 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Synthetic biology demonstration of multi-locus designer trait combination (>100 simultaneous edits)pre #3 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First live mammoth birth (or fail) — primary milestone for de-extinction technologypre #2 · pending · 2029-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Major regulatory framework explicitly addresses designer organism creationcascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — First synthetic-genome-derived mammal demonstrating non-natural trait combinationpre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-12 — Colossal's 'Lamm $5.4T invasive-species' narrative is repeatedly cited by analystspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Colossal-affiliated Tropic Biosciences reports disease-resistant crop deploymentcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Industry analyst sizes the disease-resistant ag-biotech market explicitlycascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Colossal Foundation EEHV mRNA vaccine expands to additional zoos/herdscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First publicly traded comp pure-play in disease-resistant biotech announces revenuecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Gene drive screwworm efficiency demonstrated in labpre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — USDA south Texas sterile fly facility operational (100M flies/wk)pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Regulatory framework for gene drive insect release proposedpre #1 · pending · 2028-03-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — First field/contained release of gene-drive screwwormcascade #2 · pending · 2029-03-17 — Measurable population suppression of screwworm in target zonepre #6 · pending · 2027-11-01 — IUCN formally endorses synthetic-biology assisted-evolution for conservationpre #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First gene-edited endangered animal released into wild monitored habitatpre #4 · pending · 2028-04-11 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Heat-tolerant coral or amphibian gene-edit deployed at reef/wetland scalepre #2 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Treaty-level framework on environmental release of edited organisms enters forcepre #1 · pending · 2029-04-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-12 — Colossal publicly describes gene drive as reversible (rollback feature documented)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Peer-reviewed publication on Colossal's reversible gene drive containment mechanismcascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Independent demonstration of rollback in caged trialcascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Critical scientific pushback (rebuttal paper questioning rollback feasibility)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Regulatory approval (USDA APHIS / NZ EPA / Australia OGTR) for first wild-release pilotcascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Second African nation re-permits gene-drive Anopheles trialpre #5 · pending · 2028-09-09 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2029-07-01 — First gene-drive eradication targeting an invasive species achieves measurable population suppressionpre #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — WHO/CBD adopts standardized gene-drive containment protocol distinguishing native vs invasivepre #2 · pending · 2031-01-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2033-06-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Carbios Longlaville facility online (50K t/yr PET)pre #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Breaking secures Series A funding ≥$50Mpre #4 · pending · 2027-09-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Breaking demonstrates pilot-scale facility for ≥1 non-PET plasticpre #2 · pending · 2028-05-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Independent benchmark confirms Breaking enzymes outperform PETase variants on rate/areapre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First viable northern-white-rhino embryo transfer pregnancy maintained past 90 days in southern white rhino surrogatepre #5 · pending · 2027-08-19 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Functional oocytes from northern-white-rhino induced pluripotent stem cells produced (synthetic genetic diversity proof)pre #3 · pending · 2028-12-07 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First northern white rhino calf born from BioRescue embryo + southern white rhino surrogatepre #1 · pending · 2030-03-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2031-07-18 — Synthetic-genetic-diversity engineering applied to NWR — first calf born with iPSC-derived gametespre #6 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Arc Institute Virtual Cell Challenge 2026 results show >2x improvement over State baselinepre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — CZI rBio / TranscriptFormer next-gen model published with whole-cell perturbation predictionpre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Nvidia or major cloud announces dedicated virtual-cell training compute partnershippre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — First peer-reviewed virtual-cell prediction validated wet-lab in independent academic studypre #2 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump adpre #1 · pending · 2029-06-15 — First FDA-acceptable in-silico virtual-cell experiment cited in IND submissioncascade #1 · pending · 2031-06-16 — Cascade: First drug program with discovery anchor in virtual-cell simulation enters Phase 1cascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First E. coli whole-cell model with predictive accuracy on growth/metabolism publishedpre #2 · pending · 2028-06-15 — Compute time for 1 hour of cell biology drops from 6 days to <1 daypre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — First yeast (S. cerevisiae) whole-cell digital twin publishedcascade #1 · pending · 2030-07-31 — First mammalian (HeLa or hepatocyte) whole-cell simulation reaches publicationcascade #2 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #3 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #4 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #5 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #6 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #3 · pending · 2027-10-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2029-08-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2031-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Pharma AI R&D spend >75% increase YoYpre #3 · pending · 2028-12-31 — AI-driven biotech aging-reversal compound enters Phase 1pre #2 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Multiple AI-designed drugs receive FDA approvalpre #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Healthy life-expectancy gain exceeds 1 year per calendar year sustainedcascade #1 · pending · 2034-06-16 — US life expectancy at birth crosses 90 yearscascade #2 · pending · 2037-06-24 — Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.cascade #3 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040cascade #4 · pending · 2046-07-24 — Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very differentpre #6 · pending · 2028-06-04 — Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.pre #5 · pending · 2028-06-24 — AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.pre #4 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First AI-designed drug approved for any neurological indicationpre #3 · pending · 2028-07-10 — For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-21 — Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-10 — Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.cascade #1 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #2 · pending · 2034-09-16 — Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.cascade #3 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Moon base will exist in 10 yearscascade #4 · pending · 2039-09-22 — True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve ecascade #5 · pending · 2040-07-06 — TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040pre #6 · hit · 2025-06-30 — Insilico Medicine Phase IIa positive results (TNIK inhibitor for IPF)pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-01 — Industry analyst report confirms 80-90% AI-drug Phase 1 success ratepre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First AI-designed drug enters Phase III pivotal trialcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Isomorphic Labs first IsoDDE molecule enters clinical trialscascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-15 — First true n=1 personalized drug therapy approvedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — n>=10 documented n=1 AI-designed therapies in patientscascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-07-02 — AI-designed drug discovery time falls to <12 months consistentlycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — FDA Commissioner Makary departure, replacement, or announced leavepre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — RFK Jr override of FDA decision becomes public or formalcascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Major FDA reorganization or RIF (reduction in force) announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Congressional hearing or bipartisan letter calls for FDA reformcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Pharma industry lobbying for FDA leadership change escalates publiclycascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #6 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Inaugural Enhanced Games scheduled for May 21-24, 2026 Las Vegaspre #5 · hit · 2025-05-21 — Gkolomeev posts unofficial 50m freestyle world record (20.89s) in Enhanced trialpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced Games inaugural competition delivered without major safety incidentcascade #2 · pending · 2026-05-22 — Enhanced 2026 produces >=2 records faster than current official world recordscascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Enhanced Games announces second edition with year-over-year mark improvementscascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Number of Neuralink human implants reaches 50+cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink launches high-volume production with automated surgery in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Neuralink Blindsight first patient trial begins (non-destructive read/write to cortex)cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First whole-brain emulation / connectome scan published from preserved tissuecascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadetarget window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
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Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to BABA.

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.