Timeline Fan

35 of 35 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Click a symbol to scope to claims affecting that company

IBM 58 CRWV 57 NBIS 36 AMZN 35 GOOGL 34 META 34 MSFT 34 NVDA 34 ORCL 34 ACN 31 CHGG 31 CORZ 29 APLD 28 CBRS 28

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Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

33 plotted · 2 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to AMZN.

AMZN-impacting (4)

232_055

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.

70% → 35% · resolves 2028-06

-35pp

241_043

ACN · AI · AMZN · BABA

ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade

65% → 36% · resolves 2035-10

-29pp

237_026

AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY

The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.

60% → 31% · resolves 2026-06

-29pp

238_013

ACN · AI · AMZN · BABA

Frontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self-advance

65% → 46% · resolves 2027-09

-19pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.