Compound Fork — Compute scale × Mars uncrewed
Each cell = a joint scenario "Both branches fire". Cell intensity = total |Δ| across the 200 highest-conviction tradeable predictions vs their unconditional posterior. Joint probabilities approximated via log-odds combination (assumes conditional independence given the prediction — coarse but bounded). Click a cell to drill into the dominant single-fork view.
Pick two fork families
| Compute scale ↓ × Mars uncrewed → | MARS_2026 prior 25% | MARS_2028 prior 50% | MARS_2031PLUS prior 25% |
|---|---|---|---|
COMPUTE_1GW_2027 prior 60% | 120 claims · Σ|Δ| 14.89 | 121 claims · Σ|Δ| 14.97 | 121 claims · Σ|Δ| 14.97 |
COMPUTE_10GW_2028 prior 40% | 126 claims · Σ|Δ| 15.90 | 126 claims · Σ|Δ| 15.90 | 126 claims · Σ|Δ| 15.90 |
COMPUTE_100GW_2030 prior 20% | 124 claims · Σ|Δ| 16.43 | 124 claims · Σ|Δ| 16.43 | 124 claims · Σ|Δ| 16.43 |
COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE prior 15% | 120 claims · Σ|Δ| 14.84 | 121 claims · Σ|Δ| 14.92 | 121 claims · Σ|Δ| 14.92 |
Method note
Joint conditional probability is approximated via log-odds combination: logit(P(pred|A,B)) ≈ logit(P(pred|A)) + logit(P(pred|B)) − logit(P(pred)). This is the closed-form Bayesian update assuming A and B are conditionally independent given the prediction. It's correct when the two scenarios act on the prediction through different causal paths; it's pessimistic when they overlap. The exact joint requires running the Gibbs sampler with both scenarios clamped, which would be N×M=16 sampling runs (~12 minutes per refresh) instead of N+M=8 — a 2× cost for higher fidelity.