Predictions

4 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.

Filters

Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Status
Allmiss (3)pending (1312)partial (35)in_progress (182)hit (75)
Predictor
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)
Sort
Window (earliest)Window (latest)Prior (high)Prior (low)Conviction (high)ID
IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
INF_008AIIQ-growth-rateLeading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5C45.0%partial2024-01-01 – 2026-11-30
SEM_033AI/PhysicsAI-scalingAI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics researc…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5A65.0%partial2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31
SEM_049AI/SoftwarejobsAI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost redu…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5A60.0%partial2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31
238_020AIAI-timingMath field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5B72.0%partial2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30