Predictions

11 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.

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Window (earliest)Window (latest)Prior (high)Prior (low)Conviction (high)ID
IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
239_013RoboticsOptimusTesla will release an improved Optimus design every yearElon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
239_033RoboticsOptimusOptimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the worldElon Musk5/5B65.0%partial2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
ROB_009RoboticsOptimus-30K-retail-2026External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,00…Elon Musk5/5A25.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
239_014RoboticsOptimusTesla will build out 10M sq ft Optimus factoryElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30
239_011RoboticsOptimusOptimus 3 production starts summer 2026Elon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31
241_057RoboticsAGIElon Musk believes robot building robot is imminentElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
239_012RoboticsOptimusOptimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027Elon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2027-07-01 – 2027-07-31
230_022RoboticsAGIElon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.Elon Musk3/5B35.0%pending2028-01-01 – 2030-11-30
235_032RoboticsOptimusElon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.Elon Musk4/5B35.0%pending2029-01-01 – 2032-08-31
236_021RoboticsOptimusOptimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)Elon Musk3/5B50.0%pending2029-01-01 – 2034-11-30
ROB_010Roboticswatts-are-wealth'Watts are wealth' — as machines progressively take over physical production,…Elon Musk5/5B48.0%pending2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30