Predictions
14 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI_003 | Macro/Economy | ARR-compression | AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decad… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | B | 88.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| IND_011 | Macro/Economy | iPhone-moment-outcome-based-pricing | 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapid… | Jason Calacanis | 5/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| INF_032 | Macro/Economy | residential-electricity-cost | Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Wash… | Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | 4/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| INF_011 | Macro/Economy | hyperscaler-capex | Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 88.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_021 | Macro/Economy | AI-as-macro-variable | AI has transitioned from a thematic technology disruption to a primary macroe… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | A | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_032 | Macro/Economy | cost-of-intelligence | Exponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bott… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| CYB_002 | Macro/Economy | integration-schlep | Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enter… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | B | 85.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| CYB_014 | Macro/Economy | ExO-demonetization | The Exponential Organization (ExO) framework becomes mandatory corporate stru… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 58.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| FUT_007 | Macro/Economy | structural-demographic-depression-2026-2031 | Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 —… | Peter Zeihan | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| FUT_022 | Macro/Economy | North-American-industrial-resurgence | Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by ge… | Peter Zeihan | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| ROB_018 | Macro/Economy | Enterprise-Singularity-Amazon | The 'Enterprise Singularity' — Amazon will soon become the first major corpor… | Jason Calacanis | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| ROB_019 | Macro/Economy | Electro-Industrial-Stack | The rise of the 'Electro-Industrial Stack' — AI moving out of the browser and… | Marc Andreessen | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| ROB_020 | Macro/Economy | Factory-is-the-Product | The 'Factory-is-the-Product' model will dominate venture-backed manufacturing… | Marc Andreessen | 4/5 | B | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| INF_074 | Macro/Economy | AGI-socioeconomic-disruption | AGI arrival will produce highly disruptive socioeconomic outcomes — very high… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |