Predictions

6 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.

Filters

Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Status
Allmiss (3)pending (1312)partial (35)in_progress (182)hit (75)
Predictor
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)
Sort
Window (earliest)Window (latest)Prior (high)Prior (low)Conviction (high)ID
IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
IND_027Labor/Jobsreasoning-boom-20-80-human-AI-splitOngoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a …Eric Schmidt4/5B42.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31
241_009Labor/JobsAI-timingTop programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AIEric Schmidt4/5C60.0%pending2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
241_012Labor/JobsjobsJobs impact from AI will occur at some pointEric Schmidt4/5C60.0%pending2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
241_030Labor/JobsjobsLow-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automationEric Schmidt4/5C60.0%pending2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
AI_011Labor/Jobsprogrammers-replacedThe vast majority of human programmers will be entirely replaced by AI within…Eric Schmidt5/5A20.0%pending2027-01-01 – 2027-12-31
241_058Labor/JobsjobsHigh-skilled mechanical labor will be one of the last things to go in automationEric Schmidt3/5C55.0%pending2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30