Predictions

4 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.

Filters

Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Status
Allmiss (3)pending (1312)partial (35)in_progress (182)hit (75)
Predictor
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)
Sort
Window (earliest)Window (latest)Prior (high)Prior (low)Conviction (high)ID
IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
236_012GeopoliticsAI-timingAn independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacksAndrew Yang4/5C60.0%pending2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
236_011GeopoliticsAI-timingIndependent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 electionAndrew Yang3/5C55.0%pending2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31
236_013GeopoliticsAI-timingDemocrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)Andrew Yang4/5C60.0%pending2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31
236_045GeopoliticseconomyGovernment path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry …Andrew Yang2/5D50.0%pending2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31