Predictions

7 of 1,621 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.

Filters

Status

All miss (133)pending (1161)partial (35)in_progress (182)hit (110)

Predictor

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)

Sort

Window (earliest)Window (latest)Prior (high)Prior (low)Conviction (high)ID

ID	Domain	Topic	Title	Predictor	Conv	SQ	Prior	Status	Window
236_037	Auto/Transport	AI-scaling	Transportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access model	Salim Ismail	4/5	C	55.0%	pending	2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31
236_042	Auto/Transport	autonomous	Insurance underwriting will flip from driver risk to systemic risk as FSD mat…	Salim Ismail	4/5	C	55.0%	pending	2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
242_014	Auto/Transport	AI-timing	Human driving will become illegal starting in city centers, then broadening out	Salim Ismail	4/5	C	55.0%	pending	2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
242_027	Auto/Transport	AI-timing	Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humans	Salim Ismail	3/5	C	50.0%	pending	2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
242_053	Auto/Transport	AI-timing	New car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilization	Salim Ismail	4/5	C	55.0%	pending	2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31
246_040	Auto/Transport	AI-scaling	In cities people mostly won't own cars once autonomy mainstream (subscription…	Salim Ismail	4/5	C	55.0%	pending	2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
242_015	Auto/Transport	autonomous	Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license	Salim Ismail	3/5	B	92.0%	hit	2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31