ORCL
Ssupersededsoftware_directrecommended 2026-05-04 · source §9 #3 (asymmetric), §10 §11.1Research-mode rules
| Research status | considering |
|---|---|
| Analysis batch | 2026-05-04-launch |
Instrument & sizing
| Instrument type | leaps_call |
|---|---|
| Strike | $270 |
| Expiration | 2027-01-15 |
| Polygon symbol | O:ORCL270115C00270000 |
| Recommended quantity | 2.8 |
| Recommended dollar amount | $3,500 |
| Recommended entry price | $12.50 |
| Spot at recommendation | $181.50 |
| OTM% | 49.0% |
| IV at recommendation | 0.59 |
| Delta at recommendation | 0.29 |
Thesis summary
$553B RPO (+325% YoY) with 54% from Stargate. Multi-year OCI guide: $32B → $73B → $114B → $144B. Stock down 47% from $345 high — largest disbelief gap in stack.
Linked predictions (2)
| Prediction | Role | P (current) | P (prior) | Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. INF_011 · Macro/Economy | supporting | 0.923 | 0.880 | 2026-12-31 | in_progress |
| Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. CMQ_020 · Macro/Economy | supporting | 0.672 | 0.720 | 2026-12-31 | pending |
Upcoming catalysts (1 of 1)
| Date | Type | Description | Expected impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-15 | expiration | ORCL option expiration | volatility_only | upcoming |
Update history (1)
Most recent first.
| Updated at | Type | Source | Drift / shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 22:11Z | auto_review | cron | spot +2.1% |
Actions
Recommendation is superseded; further actions handled via the position detail page.
Status: superseded