Audit Log

Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops

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705

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705

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All doc_node_link doc_node_links edges intake_session lbp_run node nodes position_recommendations prediction prediction_conflicts predictions predictors reference_classes research_event_pack scenarios source_reliability

Actor (top 50)

All apply_llm_milestones apply_low_confidence_decisions assign_predictions_to_scenarios backfill_resolution_history backfill_resolved_at build_scenario_paths codex compute_brier_scores compute_display_dates derive_milestones disperse_december_bunching fix_partial_classification intake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac…intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b…intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14…intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87…intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7…lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431e lbp_run:1a683ac9e205 lbp_run:1c6a06976c86 lbp_run:592311ef6bca lbp_run:806b02f82f58 lbp_run:807dd6f649b1 lbp_run:ba893ab6499f lbp_run:cd8605f31f33 lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42 lbp_run:e607fa961f0b lbp_run:ffd25072aee9 link_trajectories_to_dimensions manual_override metadata_milestone_sweep milestone_miss_sweep phase_2A.2_grader phase_2A.3_isolated_linker phase_2A_backfill phase2_part3_smoke_test phase3_p4_smoke_test phase3_p6_smoke_test seed_source_reliability stage_recalibration_candidates system:auto_corroborate system:decay_predictor_kappa system:detect_prediction_conflicts system:import_recommendations system:refresh_recommendations system:refresh_reference_class_base_r…tune_edge_weights

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When	Actor	Action	Target	Before → After
2026-06-07 02:00:00	`lbp_run:ba893ab6499f`	`lbp.completed`	lbp_run:ba893ab6499f	view { "edge_count": 11986, "node_count": 1659 } { "residual": 0.005959, "converged": true, "top_moves": [ { "delta": 0.13494, "node_id": "248_019" }, { "delta": 0.10018, "node_id": "248_037" }, { "delta": 0.09201, "node_id": "229_030" }, { "delta": 0.08955, "node_id": "CMQ_052" }, { "delta": 0.08925, "node_id": "CMQ_004" }, { "delta": 0.0891, "node_id": "IND_023" }, { "delta": 0.08475, "node_id": "INF_004" }, { "delta": 0.08399, "node_id": "235_019" }, { "delta": 0.08184, "node_id": "238_003" }, { "delta": 0.08119, "node_id": "CYB_005" } ], "iterations": 5, "applied_beliefs": false, "n_significant_moves": 166 }
2026-06-06 22:10:14	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 582, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-06-06 22:10:13	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-06-06 22:10:13	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 19 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 10, "id": "mega_market_cap_5y" }, { "n": 15, "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "memory_supercycle_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y" }, { "n": 10, "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "single_stock_target_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "political_crisis_2y" }, { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 19, "below_threshold": 17, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-06-06 22:10:12	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.633284, "kappa_old": 0.6333, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000043, "kappa_new": 0.849857, "kappa_old": 0.8499, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000046, "kappa_new": 0.874954, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000042, "kappa_new": 0.843758, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000027, "kappa_new": 0.722173, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000027, "kappa_new": 0.722173, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.772666, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000038, "kappa_new": 0.807662, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.00004, "kappa_new": 0.82136, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-06-06 22:10:11	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:238_044	view { "current_prob": 0.39482 } { "delta": -0.0781723945161476, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.317 blend=0.317 LLR=-0.342 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3166476054838524, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-06 22:10:11	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_010	view { "current_prob": 0.48227 } { "delta": -0.05027030411117117, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.432 blend=0.432 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4319996958888288, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-05 22:16:05	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 554, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-06-05 22:16:05	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-06-05 22:16:04	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 19 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 10, "id": "mega_market_cap_5y" }, { "n": 15, "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "memory_supercycle_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y" }, { "n": 10, "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "single_stock_target_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "political_crisis_2y" }, { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 19, "below_threshold": 17, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-06-05 22:16:04	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.633285, "kappa_old": 0.6333, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000043, "kappa_new": 0.874957, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.00004, "kappa_new": 0.84986, "kappa_old": 0.8499, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000039, "kappa_new": 0.843761, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.722174, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.722174, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000031, "kappa_new": 0.772669, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000035, "kappa_new": 0.807665, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000037, "kappa_new": 0.821363, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-06-05 22:16:02	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:237_026	view { "current_prob": 0.45455 } { "delta": -0.1421244488122259, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.312 blend=0.312 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3124255511877741, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-05 22:16:02	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:238_003	view { "current_prob": 0.37996 } { "delta": -0.12950956510280348, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.250 blend=0.250 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.25045043489719654, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-05 22:16:02	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:243_009	view { "current_prob": 0.40611 } { "delta": -0.06007454972169873, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.346 blend=0.346 LLR=-0.256 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3460354502783013, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-05 22:16:02	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_007	view { "current_prob": 0.49838 } { "delta": -0.14699943734787457, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.351 blend=0.351 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3513805626521254, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-05 22:16:02	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_012	view { "current_prob": 0.44604 } { "delta": -0.1409541555382337, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.305 blend=0.305 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3050858444617663, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-05 22:16:02	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_019	view { "current_prob": 0.47397 } { "delta": -0.3547223840287336, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.334 blend=0.119 LLR=-0.585 κ=0.84 w_in=0.42 regulatory_freeze_window", "current_prob": 0.11924761597126643, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-05 22:16:02	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_037	view { "current_prob": 0.37381 } { "delta": -0.2715207309772363, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.250 blend=0.102 LLR=-0.585 κ=0.84 w_in=0.42 regulatory_freeze_window", "current_prob": 0.10228926902276371, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-04 22:12:08	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 529, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-06-04 22:12:08	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-06-04 22:12:07	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 19 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 10, "id": "mega_market_cap_5y" }, { "n": 15, "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "memory_supercycle_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y" }, { "n": 10, "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "single_stock_target_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "political_crisis_2y" }, { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 19, "below_threshold": 17, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-06-04 22:12:07	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.633286, "kappa_old": 0.6333, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.00004, "kappa_new": 0.87496, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000037, "kappa_new": 0.849863, "kappa_old": 0.8499, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000037, "kappa_new": 0.843763, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000024, "kappa_new": 0.722176, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000024, "kappa_new": 0.722176, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.772671, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000033, "kappa_new": 0.807667, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.821366, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-06-04 22:12:05	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:229_020	view { "current_prob": 0.35194 } { "delta": -0.14805964777686834, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.269 blend=0.204 LLR=-0.392 κ=0.77 w_in=0.70 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.20388035222313164, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-06-04 22:12:05	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:229_030	view { "current_prob": 0.37679 } { "delta": -0.20570868440856693, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.348 blend=0.171 LLR=-0.125 κ=0.77 w_in=0.39 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.17108131559143308, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-04 22:12:05	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:240_007	view { "current_prob": 0.45421 } { "delta": -0.07668631865673808, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.378 blend=0.378 LLR=-0.316 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3775236813432619, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-06-04 22:12:05	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:241_041	view { "current_prob": 0.46435 } { "delta": -0.07486817374416399, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.389 blend=0.389 LLR=-0.307 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.389481826255836, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-06-04 22:12:05	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:242_008	view { "current_prob": 0.48073 } { "delta": -0.08105726440424843, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.400 blend=0.400 LLR=-0.330 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.39967273559575156, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-04 22:12:05	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:242_020	view { "current_prob": 0.37708 } { "delta": -0.06291254804215696, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.314 blend=0.314 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.31416745195784307, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-04 22:12:05	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_014	view { "current_prob": 0.3949 } { "delta": -0.0707356105750343, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.324 blend=0.324 LLR=-0.308 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.32416438942496567, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-06-04 22:12:05	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_020	view { "current_prob": 0.47407 } { "delta": -0.07829878249176248, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.396 blend=0.396 LLR=-0.319 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3957712175082375, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-06-04 22:12:05	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_029	view { "current_prob": 0.34195 } { "delta": 0.006994326750678348, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.290 blend=0.349 LLR=-0.239 κ=0.84 w_in=0.39 fda_breakthrough_label", "current_prob": 0.3489443267506783, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-06-03 22:11:48	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 504, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-06-03 22:11:48	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-06-03 22:11:47	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 19 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 10, "id": "mega_market_cap_5y" }, { "n": 15, "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "memory_supercycle_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y" }, { "n": 10, "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "single_stock_target_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "political_crisis_2y" }, { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 19, "below_threshold": 17, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-06-03 22:11:46	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.633287, "kappa_old": 0.6333, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.849866, "kappa_old": 0.8499, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000037, "kappa_new": 0.874963, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.843766, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.722178, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.722178, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000027, "kappa_new": 0.772673, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.00003, "kappa_new": 0.80767, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000032, "kappa_new": 0.821368, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-06-03 22:11:45	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:247_012	view { "current_prob": 0.39014 } { "delta": -0.06659516934363419, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.324 blend=0.324 LLR=-0.291 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3235448306563658, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-06-03 22:11:45	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_034	view { "current_prob": 0.42865 } { "delta": -0.08911252089781985, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.340 blend=0.340 LLR=-0.378 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.33953747910218013, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-06-03 22:11:45	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:241_035	view { "current_prob": 0.42275 } { "delta": -0.06936784725425937, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.353 blend=0.353 LLR=-0.293 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.35338215274574064, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-06-03 22:11:45	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:241_051	view { "current_prob": 0.43332 } { "delta": -0.05044583913720907, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.383 blend=0.383 LLR=-0.209 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3828741608627909, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-06-03 22:11:45	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_035	view { "current_prob": 0.54055 } { "delta": -0.027416691368334356, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.400 blend=0.513 LLR=-0.195 κ=0.88 w_in=0.37 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.5131333086316656, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-02 22:14:45	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 480, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-06-02 22:14:44	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-06-02 22:14:44	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 19 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 10, "id": "mega_market_cap_5y" }, { "n": 15, "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "memory_supercycle_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y" }, { "n": 10, "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "single_stock_target_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "political_crisis_2y" }, { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 19, "below_threshold": 17, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-06-02 22:14:43	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.633288, "kappa_old": 0.6333, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000032, "kappa_new": 0.849868, "kappa_old": 0.8499, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.874966, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000031, "kappa_new": 0.843769, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.72218, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.72218, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.772675, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000028, "kappa_new": 0.807672, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.821371, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-06-02 22:14:42	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_057	view { "current_prob": 0.60639 } { "delta": -0.04928651500510772, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.557 blend=0.557 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5571034849948923, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-06-01 22:11:03	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 456, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-06-01 22:11:03	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-06-01 22:11:03	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 19 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 10, "id": "mega_market_cap_5y" }, { "n": 15, "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "memory_supercycle_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y" }, { "n": 10, "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "single_stock_target_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "political_crisis_2y" }, { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 19, "below_threshold": 17, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-06-01 22:11:02	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.633289, "kappa_old": 0.6333, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000028, "kappa_new": 0.843772, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.849871, "kappa_old": 0.8499, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000031, "kappa_new": 0.874969, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.722182, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.722182, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.772678, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.807675, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.821374, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-06-01 22:11:01	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_045	view { "current_prob": 0.49282 } { "delta": -0.06371265921497637, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.429 blend=0.429 LLR=-0.257 κ=0.63 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4291073407850236, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-31 22:09:43	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 435, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-31 22:09:43	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-31 22:09:42	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 19 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 10, "id": "mega_market_cap_5y" }, { "n": 15, "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "memory_supercycle_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y" }, { "n": 10, "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "single_stock_target_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "political_crisis_2y" }, { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 19, "below_threshold": 17, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-31 22:09:42	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.63329, "kappa_old": 0.6333, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000028, "kappa_new": 0.874972, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.843775, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.849874, "kappa_old": 0.8499, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.722184, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.722184, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.77268, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.807677, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000024, "kappa_new": 0.821376, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-31 22:09:40	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:234_015	view { "current_prob": 0.49391 } { "delta": -0.0413256874576311, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.424 blend=0.453 LLR=-0.284 κ=0.88 w_in=0.62 ipo_trillion_plus", "current_prob": 0.4525843125423689, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-31 22:09:40	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:240_055	view { "current_prob": 0.45075 } { "delta": 0.01698722114495599, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.394 blend=0.468 LLR=-0.233 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 ipo_trillion_plus", "current_prob": 0.467737221144956, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-31 22:09:40	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:241_051	view { "current_prob": 0.46435 } { "delta": -0.031025175120269588, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.433 blend=0.433 LLR=-0.125 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4333248248797304, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-31 22:09:40	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_002	view { "current_prob": 0.33753 } { "delta": -0.17447450491660846, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.278 blend=0.163 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.45 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.16305549508339154, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-31 22:09:40	`milestone_miss_sweep`	`node.milestone_miss`	node:235_016	view { "current_prob": 0.45463 } { "delta": -0.14213595220759961, "reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.312 blend=0.312 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 w_in=1.00 ipo_trillion_plus", "current_prob": 0.31249404779240036, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-31 22:09:40	`milestone_miss_sweep`	`node.milestone_miss`	node:INF_012	view { "current_prob": 0.50941 } { "delta": -0.04938724342555584, "reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.401 blend=0.460 LLR=-0.439 κ=0.63 w_in=0.40 energy_grid_rebuild_5y", "current_prob": 0.4600227565744442, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-31 02:00:02	`lbp_run:807dd6f649b1`	`lbp.completed`	lbp_run:807dd6f649b1	view { "edge_count": 11986, "node_count": 1635 } { "residual": 0.006741, "converged": true, "top_moves": [ { "delta": 0.08637, "node_id": "CMQ_052" }, { "delta": 0.0862, "node_id": "CMQ_004" }, { "delta": 0.08593, "node_id": "IND_023" }, { "delta": 0.08303, "node_id": "235_019" }, { "delta": 0.08196, "node_id": "INF_004" }, { "delta": 0.07844, "node_id": "CYB_005" }, { "delta": 0.07661, "node_id": "INF_037" }, { "delta": -0.07413, "node_id": "SEM_036" }, { "delta": -0.07039, "node_id": "INF_016" }, { "delta": -0.0648, "node_id": "CMQ_028" } ], "iterations": 4, "applied_beliefs": false, "n_significant_moves": 118 }
2026-05-30 22:15:04	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 417, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-30 22:15:04	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-30 22:15:03	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 19 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 10, "id": "mega_market_cap_5y" }, { "n": 15, "id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "memory_supercycle_2y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y" }, { "n": 10, "id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "single_stock_target_1y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y" }, { "n": 8, "id": "av_deployment_scale_2y" }, { "n": 20, "id": "political_crisis_2y" }, { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 19, "below_threshold": 17, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-30 22:15:03	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.843777, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.849877, "kappa_old": 0.8499, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.722185, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.722185, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.772682, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.80768, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000021, "kappa_new": 0.821379, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.633291, "kappa_old": 0.6333, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.874975, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:241_025	view { "current_prob": 0.43481 } { "delta": -0.05708434221775749, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.378 blend=0.378 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3777256577822425, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:241_031	view { "current_prob": 0.52598 } { "delta": -0.04874537088082043, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.477 blend=0.477 LLR=-0.195 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4772346291191796, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:232_046	view { "current_prob": 0.36586 } { "delta": -0.040929136652571474, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.325 blend=0.325 LLR=-0.181 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.32493086334742854, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:234_017	view { "current_prob": 0.45421 } { "delta": -0.042281408221289174, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.412 blend=0.412 LLR=-0.172 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.41192859177871083, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_019	view { "current_prob": 0.33836 } { "delta": -0.210631052158486, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.218 blend=0.128 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.127728947841514, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_027	view { "current_prob": 0.54014 } { "delta": -0.07524961655595047, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.465 blend=0.465 LLR=-0.302 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4648903834440495, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:236_014	view { "current_prob": 0.48875 } { "delta": -0.06354859946807828, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.425 blend=0.425 LLR=-0.256 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.42520140053192174, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:236_049	view { "current_prob": 0.50021 } { "delta": -0.06856035187158516, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.432 blend=0.432 LLR=-0.276 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4316496481284149, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:237_006	view { "current_prob": 0.45421 } { "delta": -0.047885515652211386, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.406 blend=0.406 LLR=-0.196 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4063244843477886, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:238_001	view { "current_prob": 0.39244 } { "delta": -0.02624334657411226, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.366 blend=0.366 LLR=-0.112 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.36619665342588775, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:238_003	view { "current_prob": 0.46632 } { "delta": -0.08635755431577319, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.380 blend=0.380 LLR=-0.355 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3799624456842268, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:239_011	view { "current_prob": 0.31821 } { "delta": -0.0935190485506977, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.225 blend=0.225 LLR=-0.477 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.2246909514493023, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:239_016	view { "current_prob": 0.46002 } { "delta": -0.0275428207955844, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.432 blend=0.432 LLR=-0.112 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4324771792044156, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:240_037	view { "current_prob": 0.36062 } { "delta": -0.1254199528283777, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.235 blend=0.235 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.2352000471716223, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:241_056	view { "current_prob": 0.46107 } { "delta": -0.14297546985357634, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.318 blend=0.318 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.31809453014642364, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_002	view { "current_prob": 0.53869 } { "delta": -0.07524615205748414, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.463 blend=0.463 LLR=-0.302 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.46344384794251586, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_035	view { "current_prob": 0.50927 } { "delta": 0.03128147577984264, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.447 blend=0.541 LLR=-0.248 κ=0.88 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.5405514757798426, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_017	view { "current_prob": 0.80501 } { "delta": -0.05655430156348118, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.748 blend=0.748 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.7484556984365188, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_004	view { "current_prob": 0.35731 } { "delta": -0.061182658796061495, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.296 blend=0.296 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.2961273412039385, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_007	view { "current_prob": 0.15199 } { "delta": -0.024330425531914862, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.128 blend=0.128 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.12765957446808512, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_009	view { "current_prob": 0.30964 } { "delta": -0.08669671566814466, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.253 blend=0.223 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.45 agi_breakthrough_5y", "current_prob": 0.22294328433185537, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_013	view { "current_prob": 0.23039 } { "delta": -0.08066564409739196, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.185 blend=0.150 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.65 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.14972435590260805, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_001	view { "current_prob": 0.63768 } { "delta": -0.18999044806132714, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.581 blend=0.448 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 w_in=0.69 agi_breakthrough_5y", "current_prob": 0.4476895519386729, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_004	view { "current_prob": 0.4587 } { "delta": -0.18223910102117857, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.391 blend=0.276 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.45 agi_breakthrough_5y", "current_prob": 0.2764608989788214, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_008	view { "current_prob": 0.45732 } { "delta": -0.04450237667532758, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.413 blend=0.413 LLR=-0.181 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4128176233246724, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_017	view { "current_prob": 0.59885 } { "delta": -0.08010854642216314, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.530 blend=0.519 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.62 energy_grid_rebuild_5y", "current_prob": 0.5187414535778369, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_023	view { "current_prob": 0.71967 } { "delta": -0.07051178852751239, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.649 blend=0.649 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6491582114724876, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_024	view { "current_prob": 0.61674 } { "delta": -0.0797520811498812, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.537 blend=0.537 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5369879188501188, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_029	view { "current_prob": 0.78837 } { "delta": -0.047356197040561265, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.877 blend=0.741 LLR=-0.639 κ=0.81 w_in=0.44 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.7410138029594387, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_030	view { "current_prob": 0.41352 } { "delta": -0.07657225508386051, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.337 blend=0.337 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3369477449161395, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_035	view { "current_prob": 0.69241 } { "delta": -0.01736839323677375, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.776 blend=0.675 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 w_in=0.44 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.6750416067632262, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_042	view { "current_prob": 0.40958 } { "delta": -0.06036307170066252, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.349 blend=0.349 LLR=-0.257 κ=0.63 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3492169282993375, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_047	view { "current_prob": 0.58003 } { "delta": -0.06899657256347791, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.511 blend=0.511 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5110334274365221, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_052	view { "current_prob": 0.41184 } { "delta": -0.19043960591073533, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.339 blend=0.221 LLR=-0.313 κ=0.77 w_in=0.62 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.22140039408926465, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_056	view { "current_prob": 0.34056 } { "delta": -0.15168049158132269, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.281 blend=0.189 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.59 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.1888795084186773, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_058	view { "current_prob": 0.65016 } { "delta": -0.061343633502711103, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.589 blend=0.589 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5888163664972889, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_059	view { "current_prob": 0.70778 } { "delta": -0.08375639299458659, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.624 blend=0.624 LLR=-0.378 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6240236070054134, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:COD_BIO_001	view { "current_prob": 0.50481 } { "delta": -0.03871135755254196, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.466 blend=0.466 LLR=-0.155 κ=0.85 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.466098642447458, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_017	view { "current_prob": 0.18082 } { "delta": -0.06676572789300368, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.134 blend=0.114 LLR=-0.355 κ=0.88 w_in=0.44 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.11405427210699633, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_023	view { "current_prob": 0.39825 } { "delta": -0.17812742468738718, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.320 blend=0.220 LLR=-0.342 κ=0.84 w_in=0.65 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.2201225753126128, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_025	view { "current_prob": 0.32007 } { "delta": -0.09232132076862576, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.266 blend=0.228 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 w_in=0.44 agi_breakthrough_5y", "current_prob": 0.22774867923137426, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:ROB_009	view { "current_prob": 0.27981 } { "delta": -0.09488363786096118, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.227 blend=0.185 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 w_in=0.73 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.18492636213903882, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:ROB_023	view { "current_prob": 0.62549 } { "delta": -0.04855974748415115, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.577 blend=0.577 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5769302525158488, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_018	view { "current_prob": 0.52026 } { "delta": -0.05063788896905952, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.470 blend=0.470 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4696221110309404, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_019	view { "current_prob": 0.583 } { "delta": -0.037360943740724406, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.546 blend=0.546 LLR=-0.152 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5456390562592756, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_023	view { "current_prob": 0.66946 } { "delta": -0.04311780322539871, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.626 blend=0.626 LLR=-0.189 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6263421967746013, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_046	view { "current_prob": 0.58445 } { "delta": -0.04949484106747115, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.535 blend=0.535 LLR=-0.201 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5349551589325289, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_020	view { "current_prob": 0.32452 } { "delta": -0.0645946705124344, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.260 blend=0.260 LLR=-0.313 κ=0.77 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.2599253294875656, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_021	view { "current_prob": 0.50227 } { "delta": -0.04864525205336495, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.454 blend=0.454 LLR=-0.195 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.45362474794663504, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-30 22:15:00	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_022	view { "current_prob": 0.48301 } { "delta": -0.06883282595206125, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.414 blend=0.414 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.41417717404793875, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-24 02:00:02	`lbp_run:806b02f82f58`	`lbp.completed`	lbp_run:806b02f82f58	view { "edge_count": 11986, "node_count": 1635 } { "residual": 0.009997, "converged": true, "top_moves": [ { "delta": 0.15258, "node_id": "INF_037" }, { "delta": 0.13599, "node_id": "INF_004" }, { "delta": -0.12962, "node_id": "CMQ_017" }, { "delta": -0.12274, "node_id": "INF_016" }, { "delta": 0.11898, "node_id": "CYB_005" }, { "delta": -0.11355, "node_id": "SEM_036" }, { "delta": -0.10816, "node_id": "CMQ_040" }, { "delta": -0.09916, "node_id": "CMQ_028" }, { "delta": -0.09511, "node_id": "SEM_023" }, { "delta": -0.08721, "node_id": "AUT_008" } ], "iterations": 4, "applied_beliefs": true, "n_significant_moves": 165 }
2026-05-22 23:00:01	`compute_brier_scores`	`predictors.brier_recompute`	predictors:continual_20260522	view { "max_delta": 0.05, "smoothing": true } { "kappa_shifts": [ { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "new_kappa": 0.8499, "old_kappa": 0.8999, "raw_delta": -0.3999 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "new_kappa": 0.6875, "old_kappa": 0.6429, "raw_delta": 0.0446 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "new_kappa": 0.6875, "old_kappa": 0.6429, "raw_delta": 0.0446 }, { "name": "Micron", "new_kappa": 0.5833, "old_kappa": 0.55, "raw_delta": 0.0333 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "new_kappa": 0.6333, "old_kappa": 0.5833, "raw_delta": 0.0596 } ], "n_resolved_total": 113, "n_predictors_updated": 104 }
2026-05-21 23:15:16	`intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39`	`intake.applied`	intake_session:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39	view (null) { "bayesian_v2": true, "event_updates": 46, "kappa_summary": { "n": 46, "max": 0.875, "min": 0.5, "mean": 0.6824326086956524, "distinct_predictors": 17 }, "blends_applied": 16, "indicator_updates": 3, "new_events_skipped": 4, "skipped_updates_count": 0, "anomaly_flags_captured": 4, "blends_skipped_no_class": 30, "regime_signals_captured": 4, "ticker_attribution_captured": 11 }
2026-05-19 22:16:09	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 190, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-19 22:16:08	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-19 22:16:08	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-19 22:16:07	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.549993, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000053, "kappa_new": 0.899947, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.722171, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.722171, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000045, "kappa_new": 0.843755, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000036, "kappa_new": 0.772664, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.00004, "kappa_new": 0.80766, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000042, "kappa_new": 0.821358, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000019, "kappa_new": 0.642881, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000049, "kappa_new": 0.874951, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.583289, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 15.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.687475, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 15.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-19 22:16:06	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_034	view { "current_prob": 0.78644 } { "delta": -0.011045029643714233, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.920 blend=0.775 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 w_in=0.43 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.7753949703562858, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-19 22:16:06	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_039	view { "current_prob": 0.68239 } { "delta": -0.023648778048576125, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.714 blend=0.659 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 w_in=0.57 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.6587412219514239, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-19 22:16:06	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_041	view { "current_prob": 0.69381 } { "delta": -0.017346379800103895, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.782 blend=0.676 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 w_in=0.43 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.6764636201998961, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-18 22:13:13	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 179, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-18 22:13:12	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-18 22:13:12	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-18 22:13:11	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000049, "kappa_new": 0.899951, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.549994, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000027, "kappa_new": 0.722173, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000027, "kappa_new": 0.722173, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000042, "kappa_new": 0.843758, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.772666, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000038, "kappa_new": 0.807662, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.00004, "kappa_new": 0.82136, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.642882, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000046, "kappa_new": 0.874954, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 14.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.687477, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 14.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-17 22:12:28	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 168, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-17 22:12:28	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-17 22:12:27	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-17 22:12:27	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000037, "kappa_new": 0.821363, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.549994, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000046, "kappa_new": 0.899954, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.722174, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.722174, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000039, "kappa_new": 0.843761, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000031, "kappa_new": 0.772669, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.642884, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000035, "kappa_new": 0.807665, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000043, "kappa_new": 0.874957, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.58329, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 13.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.687478, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 13.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-17 22:12:26	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CYB_005	view { "current_prob": 0.33896 } { "delta": -0.1566793610845642, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.295 blend=0.182 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 w_in=0.70 regulatory_freeze_window", "current_prob": 0.18228063891543578, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-17 02:00:01	`lbp_run:e607fa961f0b`	`lbp.completed`	lbp_run:e607fa961f0b	view { "edge_count": 11986, "node_count": 1621 } { "residual": 0.006892, "converged": true, "top_moves": [ { "delta": -0.1248, "node_id": "COD_SPC_004" }, { "delta": 0.10881, "node_id": "CYB_005" }, { "delta": -0.10068, "node_id": "CMQ_053" }, { "delta": 0.09561, "node_id": "229_045" }, { "delta": 0.08918, "node_id": "INF_037" }, { "delta": 0.07831, "node_id": "230_046" }, { "delta": -0.07606, "node_id": "COD_SPC_005" }, { "delta": -0.06916, "node_id": "CMQ_038" }, { "delta": 0.06401, "node_id": "248_041" }, { "delta": -0.05767, "node_id": "246_016" } ], "iterations": 5, "applied_beliefs": true, "n_significant_moves": 449 }
2026-05-16 22:11:19	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 157, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-16 22:11:18	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-16 22:11:18	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-16 22:11:17	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.821366, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.549995, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000043, "kappa_new": 0.899957, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000024, "kappa_new": 0.722176, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000024, "kappa_new": 0.722176, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.772671, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000037, "kappa_new": 0.843763, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000033, "kappa_new": 0.807667, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.642885, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.00004, "kappa_new": 0.87496, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.583291, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 12.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.68748, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 12.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-16 22:11:16	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_007	view { "current_prob": 0.53009 } { "delta": -0.0752299723608098, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.455 blend=0.455 LLR=-0.302 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.45486002763919015, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-16 22:11:16	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_019	view { "current_prob": 0.39951 } { "delta": -0.026430889839689387, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.373 blend=0.373 LLR=-0.112 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3730791101603106, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-16 22:11:16	`milestone_miss_sweep`	`node.milestone_miss`	node:229_045	view { "current_prob": 0.27035 } { "delta": -0.1499035278077958, "reason": "milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.178 blend=0.120 LLR=-0.536 κ=0.77 w_in=0.31 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.12044647219220415, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-15 22:14:54	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 142, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-15 22:14:53	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-15 22:14:53	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-15 22:14:52	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000032, "kappa_new": 0.821368, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.549995, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000039, "kappa_new": 0.899961, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.722178, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000027, "kappa_new": 0.772673, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.843766, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.00003, "kappa_new": 0.80767, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.722178, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.642886, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000037, "kappa_new": 0.874963, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 11.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.687482, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 11.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-15 22:14:51	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:243_032	view { "current_prob": 0.50992 } { "delta": -0.05907450754936677, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.451 blend=0.451 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.45084549245063327, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-15 22:14:51	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CYB_008	view { "current_prob": 0.73675 } { "delta": -0.04834977951601427, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.688 blend=0.688 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6884002204839857, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-15 22:14:51	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_014	view { "current_prob": 0.44115 } { "delta": -0.057247258508718535, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.384 blend=0.384 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.38390274149128145, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-15 22:14:51	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_046	view { "current_prob": 0.59022 } { "delta": -0.05816878823536298, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.532 blend=0.532 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.532051211764637, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-14 22:14:35	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 131, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-14 22:14:34	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-14 22:14:34	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-14 22:14:33	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.772675, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.821371, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000036, "kappa_new": 0.899964, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.549995, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000031, "kappa_new": 0.843769, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000028, "kappa_new": 0.807672, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.72218, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.72218, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.642887, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000034, "kappa_new": 0.874966, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.583292, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 10.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.687483, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 10.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-14 22:14:31	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:245_027	view { "current_prob": 0.41948 } { "delta": -0.0659776407952708, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.354 blend=0.354 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3535023592047292, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-14 22:14:31	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_033	view { "current_prob": 0.70846 } { "delta": -0.05113303747652986, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.657 blend=0.657 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6573269625234701, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-14 22:14:31	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:COD_ROB_003	view { "current_prob": 0.40304 } { "delta": -0.08390248470854239, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.319 blend=0.319 LLR=-0.365 κ=0.90 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3191375152914576, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-13 22:12:38	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 115, "positions_examined": 34 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-13 22:12:38	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-13 22:12:37	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-13 22:12:37	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000033, "kappa_new": 0.899967, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.549996, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.722182, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.722182, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000031, "kappa_new": 0.874969, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000022, "kappa_new": 0.772678, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.821374, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000028, "kappa_new": 0.843772, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.642888, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.583293, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.807675, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 9.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.687485, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 9.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-13 22:12:36	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_017	view { "current_prob": 0.51671 } { "delta": -0.037694273765743413, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.452 blend=0.479 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 w_in=0.43 energy_grid_rebuild_5y", "current_prob": 0.4790157262342566, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-12 22:09:47	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 98, "positions_examined": 24 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-12 22:09:47	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-12 22:09:47	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-12 22:09:46	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000029, "kappa_new": 0.899971, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.549996, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.722184, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.722184, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000028, "kappa_new": 0.874972, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.77268, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000024, "kappa_new": 0.821376, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.843775, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.642889, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.807677, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.687486, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.583294, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 8.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-12 22:09:45	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_030	view { "current_prob": 0.31889 } { "delta": -0.05960716670922844, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.259 blend=0.259 LLR=-0.291 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.25928283329077156, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-12 22:09:45	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_005	view { "current_prob": 0.56732 } { "delta": -0.06475903325558618, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.503 blend=0.503 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5025609667444139, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-11 22:11:37	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 69, "positions_examined": 15 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-11 22:11:36	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-11 22:11:36	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-11 22:11:35	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000025, "kappa_new": 0.874975, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.772682, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000026, "kappa_new": 0.899974, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.549997, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000021, "kappa_new": 0.821379, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.843777, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.722185, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.722185, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.80768, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.642891, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.687488, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 7.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-10 22:10:57	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 54, "positions_examined": 10 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-10 22:10:56	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-10 22:10:54	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-10 22:10:53	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000023, "kappa_new": 0.899977, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.722187, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.722187, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.807682, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000021, "kappa_new": 0.874979, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.772684, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.549997, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.821382, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.84378, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.642892, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.583295, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 6.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.687489, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 6.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:230_046	view { "current_prob": 0.49522 } { "delta": -0.1820079978290759, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.313 blend=0.313 LLR=-0.766 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3132120021709241, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:233_009	view { "current_prob": 0.37587 } { "delta": -0.03797083770148335, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.338 blend=0.338 LLR=-0.166 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.33789916229851663, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:237_018	view { "current_prob": 0.42275 } { "delta": -0.05711810224512681, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.366 blend=0.366 LLR=-0.239 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3656318977548732, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:237_029	view { "current_prob": 0.49522 } { "delta": -0.0702061657017315, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.425 blend=0.425 LLR=-0.283 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4250138342982685, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CYB_005	view { "current_prob": 0.43967 } { "delta": -0.20952438731496842, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.408 blend=0.230 LLR=-0.132 κ=0.50 w_in=0.68 regulatory_freeze_window", "current_prob": 0.2301456126850316, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_066	view { "current_prob": 0.53619 } { "delta": -0.017715894719911196, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.561 blend=0.518 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y", "current_prob": 0.5184741052800889, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 22:10:52	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_030	view { "current_prob": 0.43348 } { "delta": -0.0489610611573999, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.385 blend=0.385 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3845189388426001, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-10 02:00:02	`lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42`	`lbp.completed`	lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42	view { "edge_count": 11986, "node_count": 1591 } { "residual": 0.005841, "converged": true, "top_moves": [ { "delta": 0.1853, "node_id": "INF_037" }, { "delta": -0.15231, "node_id": "COD_SPC_004" }, { "delta": -0.14901, "node_id": "CMQ_053" }, { "delta": -0.12227, "node_id": "CMQ_038" }, { "delta": -0.11519, "node_id": "246_016" }, { "delta": -0.11348, "node_id": "COD_SPC_005" }, { "delta": 0.11245, "node_id": "248_041" }, { "delta": -0.11195, "node_id": "246_017" }, { "delta": -0.10597, "node_id": "INF_043" }, { "delta": -0.10552, "node_id": "CMQ_040" } ], "iterations": 6, "applied_beliefs": true, "n_significant_moves": 937 }
2026-05-09 22:14:13	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 43, "positions_examined": 10 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-09 22:14:12	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-09 22:14:12	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-09 22:14:11	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.00002, "kappa_new": 0.89998, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.722189, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.722189, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.807685, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.772687, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.549998, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.821384, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000017, "kappa_new": 0.843783, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000018, "kappa_new": 0.874982, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.687491, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.583296, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 5.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.642893, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 5.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:229_033	view { "current_prob": 0.45415 } { "delta": -0.06484314179275802, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.389 blend=0.389 LLR=-0.266 κ=0.77 w_in=1.00 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.389306858207242, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:232_052	view { "current_prob": 0.50735 } { "delta": -0.06186710442929394, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.445 blend=0.445 LLR=-0.248 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.44548289557070603, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_015	view { "current_prob": 0.38686 } { "delta": -0.04741998031606903, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.339 blend=0.339 LLR=-0.205 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.33944001968393095, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_037	view { "current_prob": 0.38686 } { "delta": -0.04741998031606903, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.339 blend=0.339 LLR=-0.205 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.33944001968393095, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_043	view { "current_prob": 0.39095 } { "delta": -0.027546666006975362, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.363 blend=0.363 LLR=-0.117 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.36340333399302466, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:237_021	view { "current_prob": 0.43698 } { "delta": -0.03489505168513496, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.402 blend=0.402 LLR=-0.143 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.402084948314865, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:239_003	view { "current_prob": 0.48501 } { "delta": -0.06448847135587837, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.421 blend=0.421 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4205215286441216, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:241_008	view { "current_prob": 0.47186 } { "delta": -0.03797368410063212, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.434 blend=0.434 LLR=-0.153 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4338863158993679, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-09 22:14:10	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_021	view { "current_prob": 0.75947 } { "delta": -0.04579936915011895, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.714 blend=0.714 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.713670630849881, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:36	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 31, "positions_examined": 10 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-08 22:15:36	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-08 22:15:36	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-08 22:15:35	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.687492, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.772689, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.687492, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.821387, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.642894, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.642894, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000014, "kappa_new": 0.843786, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.687492, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.687492, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.687492, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000016, "kappa_new": 0.899984, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.642894, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.687492, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.642894, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.722191, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.722191, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000015, "kappa_new": 0.874985, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.807687, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.642894, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.687492, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.642894, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.549998, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.687492, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 4.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.642894, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 4.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_021	view { "current_prob": 0.50548 } { "delta": -0.025058013843659577, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.435 blend=0.480 LLR=-0.283 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 mars_uncrewed_landing_window", "current_prob": 0.48042198615634046, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_013	view { "current_prob": 0.47663 } { "delta": -0.107469364538815, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.369 blend=0.369 LLR=-0.442 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.369160635461185, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:229_007	view { "current_prob": 0.52069 } { "delta": -0.0664399954901666, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.454 blend=0.454 LLR=-0.266 κ=0.77 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4542500045098334, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:230_042	view { "current_prob": 0.43168 } { "delta": -0.05026339587547596, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.381 blend=0.381 LLR=-0.209 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.38141660412452405, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:231_012	view { "current_prob": 0.55898 } { "delta": -0.06624238841762625, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.493 blend=0.493 LLR=-0.266 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4927376115823738, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:232_035	view { "current_prob": 0.42315 } { "delta": -0.05713082467272146, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.366 blend=0.366 LLR=-0.239 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.36601917532727857, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:237_010	view { "current_prob": 0.46514 } { "delta": -0.04498396581089409, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.420 blend=0.420 LLR=-0.182 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4201560341891059, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:238_067	view { "current_prob": 0.45615 } { "delta": -0.0569908462462545, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.399 blend=0.399 LLR=-0.233 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3991591537537455, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:238_068	view { "current_prob": 0.43348 } { "delta": -0.0489610611573999, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.385 blend=0.385 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3845189388426001, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:240_004	view { "current_prob": 0.39184 } { "delta": -0.07419228601674899, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.318 blend=0.318 LLR=-0.325 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.31764771398325103, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:240_025	view { "current_prob": 0.49048 } { "delta": 0.038502682165947655, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.416 blend=0.529 LLR=-0.302 κ=0.88 w_in=0.31 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.5289826821659477, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:242_038	view { "current_prob": 0.37762 } { "delta": -0.05443104389138209, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.323 blend=0.323 LLR=-0.239 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3231889561086179, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:243_026	view { "current_prob": 0.38157 } { "delta": -0.05106777695106657, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.331 blend=0.331 LLR=-0.223 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.33050222304893345, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:244_016	view { "current_prob": 0.39019 } { "delta": -0.054704488590896605, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.335 blend=0.335 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3354855114091034, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_014	view { "current_prob": 0.51482 } { "delta": -0.028239845142440545, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.459 blend=0.487 LLR=-0.222 κ=0.84 w_in=0.33 mars_uncrewed_landing_window", "current_prob": 0.4865801548575595, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_004	view { "current_prob": 0.60634 } { "delta": -0.07379315577856393, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.533 blend=0.533 LLR=-0.302 κ=0.88 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.532546844221436, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_004	view { "current_prob": 0.42285 } { "delta": -0.06553813679994996, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.357 blend=0.357 LLR=-0.276 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.35731186320005004, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_031	view { "current_prob": 0.44531 } { "delta": -0.06216800359454505, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.383 blend=0.383 LLR=-0.257 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.38314199640545493, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:COD_SPC_002	view { "current_prob": 0.303 } { "delta": -0.061270971334363517, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.242 blend=0.242 LLR=-0.310 κ=0.90 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.24172902866563648, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-08 22:15:34	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CYB_028	view { "current_prob": 0.50599 } { "delta": -0.04300754292831571, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.463 blend=0.463 LLR=-0.172 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.46298245707168434, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-07 22:13:03	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 19, "positions_examined": 9 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-07 22:13:03	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-07 22:13:02	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-07 22:13:02	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.687494, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.687494, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000013, "kappa_new": 0.899987, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.642895, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.722193, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.722193, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.80769, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.549998, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.687494, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.642895, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.687494, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.772691, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.687494, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.82139, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.642895, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.642895, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000011, "kappa_new": 0.843789, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.687494, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.642895, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.687494, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000012, "kappa_new": 0.874988, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.642895, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.687494, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.642895, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 3.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.583297, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 3.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-07 22:13:01	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:234_026	view { "current_prob": 0.43471 } { "delta": -0.06964647731765095, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.365 blend=0.365 LLR=-0.291 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.36506352268234904, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-07 22:13:01	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:236_036	view { "current_prob": 0.39599 } { "delta": -0.07456022989178457, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.321 blend=0.321 LLR=-0.325 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.32142977010821544, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-06 22:13:12	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 12, "positions_examined": 6 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-06 22:13:12	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-06 22:13:12	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 0, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-06 22:13:11	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.687495, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.687495, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.687495, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000007, "kappa_new": 0.772693, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.00001, "kappa_new": 0.89999, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.687495, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.821392, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.642897, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.642897, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.843792, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.687495, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.642897, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.722195, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.642897, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.722195, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000008, "kappa_new": 0.807692, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Micron", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.549999, "kappa_old": 0.55, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.687495, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.687495, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000009, "kappa_new": 0.874991, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.642897, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.642897, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.687495, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.642897, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 2.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.583298, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 2.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 38, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-05 22:11:02	`system:refresh_recommendations`	`recommendations.refresh.run`	—	view { "recs_examined": 50, "positions_examined": 0 } { "alerts_queued": 0 }
2026-05-05 22:11:01	`system:detect_prediction_conflicts`	`prediction_conflicts.run`	—	view { "summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start" } { "detected": 0 }
2026-05-05 22:11:01	`system:auto_corroborate`	`auto_corroborate.run`	—	view { "summary": "E2 auto-corroborate start" } { "cohort_id": "dc47127b-c217-49d2-97c6-ce58983ee599", "min_relevance": 0.65, "min_credibility": 0.55, "consensus_events": 1, "min_distinct_sources": 3 }
2026-05-05 22:11:01	`system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates`	`reference_class_base_rate_refresh`	—	view { "summary": "R3 refresh start", "examined": 10 } { "rows": [ { "n": 30, "id": "recession_probability_2yr", "hits": 8, "after": 0.26667, "before": 0.27 } ], "below": [ { "n": 5, "id": "agi_breakthrough_5y" }, { "n": 12, "id": "fab_construction_3y" }, { "n": 3, "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume" }, { "n": 4, "id": "ipo_trillion_plus" }, { "n": 4, "id": "regulatory_freeze_window" }, { "n": 6, "id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y" }, { "n": 18, "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window" }, { "n": 0, "id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y" } ], "updated": 1, "examined": 10, "below_threshold": 8, "min_n_threshold": 30 }
2026-05-05 22:11:00	`system:decay_predictor_kappa`	`kappa_decay_run`	—	view { "summary": "C4 κ decay run start", "examined": 104 } { "rows": [ { "name": "Andrej Karpathy", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.687497, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.687497, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Ben Lamm", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.687497, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Brett Adcock", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.772696, "kappa_old": 0.7727, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.899994, "kappa_old": 0.9, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Dara Khosrowshahi", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.687497, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Dave Blundin", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.821395, "kappa_old": 0.8214, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Demis Hassabis", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Elon Musk", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.642898, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Alex Finn", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.642898, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Alex Wissner-Gross", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.843794, "kappa_old": 0.8438, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Dario Amodei", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.642898, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Anthropic", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Emad Mostaque", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.722196, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Eric Schmidt", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.687497, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Jack Dorsey", "delta": -0.000004, "kappa_new": 0.722196, "kappa_old": 0.7222, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Jensen Huang", "delta": -0.000005, "kappa_new": 0.807695, "kappa_old": 0.8077, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Jimmy Ba", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.642898, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Joe Liemandt", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Joseph Moore", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Kevin Weil", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.687497, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.687497, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Michael Saylor", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "New Market Pitch", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Nvidia", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis", "delta": -0.000006, "kappa_new": 0.874994, "kappa_old": 0.875, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Salim Ismail", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.642898, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Sam Altman", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "David Holz", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.642898, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "SpaceX", "delta": -0.000003, "kappa_new": 0.687497, "kappa_old": 0.6875, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Superforecaster Community", "delta": -0.000002, "kappa_new": 0.642898, "kappa_old": 0.6429, "days_since": 1.97 }, { "name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)", "delta": -0.000001, "kappa_new": 0.583299, "kappa_old": 0.5833, "days_since": 1.97 } ], "alpha": 0.003, "updated": 37, "examined": 104, "kappa_prior": 0.5, "max_daily_decay": 0.01, "decay_horizon_days": 365 }
2026-05-05 22:10:59	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:ROB_011	view { "current_prob": 0.09117 } { "delta": -0.0194189197769086, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.072 blend=0.072 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.0717510802230914, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-05 14:24:59	`system:import_recommendations`	`recommendations.bulk_import`	—	view { "batch_id": "2026-05-05-risk-analysis", "campaign": "risk_analysis_2026_05_05", "rec_count": 16, "source_doc": "codex/risk_analysis_2026_05_05.md", "update_count": 1 } { "applied": 1, "skipped": 0, "inserted": 16, "update_skipped": 0 }
2026-05-04 23:01:28	`system:import_recommendations`	`recommendations.bulk_import`	—	view { "count": 24, "campaign": "high_conviction_investments_2026_05_04", "source_doc": "codex/high_conviction_investments.md" } { "skipped": 0, "inserted": 24 }
2026-05-04 22:07:29	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_030	view { "current_prob": 0.39184 } { "delta": -0.12370297028181698, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.268 blend=0.268 LLR=-0.565 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.26813702971818304, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-03 23:00:01	`compute_brier_scores`	`predictors.brier_recompute`	predictors:continual_20260503	view { "max_delta": 0.05, "smoothing": true } { "kappa_shifts": [ { "name": "Codex Research Pack", "new_kappa": 0.9, "old_kappa": 0.95, "raw_delta": -0.45 }, { "name": "Micron", "new_kappa": 0.55, "old_kappa": 0.5, "raw_delta": 0.0833 } ], "n_resolved_total": 110, "n_predictors_updated": 104 }
2026-05-03 22:06:47	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_068	view { "current_prob": 0.39241 } { "delta": -0.0547380892798488, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.338 blend=0.338 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3376719107201512, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-03 02:40:54	`intake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac0675ec`	`intake.applied`	intake_session:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac0675ec	view (null) { "bayesian_v2": true, "event_updates": 9, "kappa_summary": { "n": 9, "max": 0.8684, "min": 0.5, "mean": 0.6561333333333333, "distinct_predictors": 6 }, "blends_applied": 4, "indicator_updates": 4, "new_events_skipped": 2, "skipped_updates_count": 0, "anomaly_flags_captured": 1, "blends_skipped_no_class": 5, "regime_signals_captured": 4, "ticker_attribution_captured": 0 }
2026-05-03 02:00:01	`lbp_run:1a683ac9e205`	`lbp.completed`	lbp_run:1a683ac9e205	view { "edge_count": 11986, "node_count": 1456 } { "residual": 0.006767, "converged": true, "top_moves": [ { "delta": -0.1951, "node_id": "246_016" }, { "delta": -0.1885, "node_id": "246_017" }, { "delta": -0.18154, "node_id": "COD_ROB_002" }, { "delta": 0.17211, "node_id": "FUT_004" }, { "delta": -0.16911, "node_id": "246_012" }, { "delta": -0.16495, "node_id": "INF_043" }, { "delta": -0.16451, "node_id": "COD_AI_003" }, { "delta": 0.15593, "node_id": "229_001" }, { "delta": -0.15501, "node_id": "CMQ_030" }, { "delta": 0.15259, "node_id": "238_023" } ], "iterations": 6, "applied_beliefs": true, "n_significant_moves": 1182 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:229_001	view { "current_prob": 0.62806 } { "delta": -0.2876977487558071, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.576 blend=0.340 LLR=-0.219 κ=0.77 w_in=0.61 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.34036225124419284, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:229_002	view { "current_prob": 0.62806 } { "delta": -0.29414363350758166, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.564 blend=0.334 LLR=-0.266 κ=0.77 w_in=0.61 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.3339163664924183, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:229_022	view { "current_prob": 0.34205 } { "delta": -0.15470317130852737, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.280 blend=0.187 LLR=-0.288 κ=0.77 w_in=0.58 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.18734682869147265, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:230_008	view { "current_prob": 0.44712 } { "delta": -0.0500289891850943, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.397 blend=0.397 LLR=-0.205 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3970910108149057, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:230_013	view { "current_prob": 0.57919 } { "delta": -0.07009893760356956, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.509 blend=0.509 LLR=-0.283 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5090910623964304, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:230_025	view { "current_prob": 0.58229 } { "delta": -0.1725371397927008, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.410 blend=0.410 LLR=-0.697 κ=0.87 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4097528602072992, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:230_033	view { "current_prob": 0.46029 } { "delta": -0.08225425805567088, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.378 blend=0.378 LLR=-0.339 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3780357419443291, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:230_034	view { "current_prob": 0.55636 } { "delta": -0.17359424818464775, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.383 blend=0.383 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3827657518153522, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:231_004	view { "current_prob": 0.44712 } { "delta": -0.07031546022623858, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.377 blend=0.377 LLR=-0.291 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.37680453977376144, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:232_010	view { "current_prob": 0.58059 } { "delta": -0.07410954741283338, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.506 blend=0.506 LLR=-0.299 κ=0.87 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5064804525871667, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:232_056	view { "current_prob": 0.44712 } { "delta": -0.07031546022623858, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.377 blend=0.377 LLR=-0.291 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.37680453977376144, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:232_057	view { "current_prob": 0.44203 } { "delta": -0.004137667493527231, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.303 blend=0.438 LLR=-0.599 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 mars_uncrewed_landing_window", "current_prob": 0.43789233250647275, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:233_007	view { "current_prob": 0.57392 } { "delta": -0.0379509143311304, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.536 blend=0.536 LLR=-0.154 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5359690856688696, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:233_009	view { "current_prob": 0.40399 } { "delta": -0.028119895184772536, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.376 blend=0.376 LLR=-0.118 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3758701048152275, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:233_011	view { "current_prob": 0.40381 } { "delta": -0.036401103931623435, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.367 blend=0.367 LLR=-0.154 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.36740889606837657, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:234_019	view { "current_prob": 0.37757 } { "delta": -0.22633001711372394, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=5 inside=0.120 blend=0.151 LLR=-1.495 κ=0.84 w_in=0.56 agi_breakthrough_5y", "current_prob": 0.15123998288627608, "n_milestones": 5 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:234_046	view { "current_prob": 0.5294 } { "delta": -0.0623609941445985, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.467 blend=0.467 LLR=-0.250 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4670390058554015, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_021	view { "current_prob": 0.49149 } { "delta": -0.03285122671513352, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.459 blend=0.459 LLR=-0.132 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.45863877328486646, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_027	view { "current_prob": 0.58459 } { "delta": -0.17425403640270032, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.410 blend=0.410 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.41033596359729974, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_032	view { "current_prob": 0.21751 } { "delta": -0.06873152334737084, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.149 blend=0.149 LLR=-0.464 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.14877847665262917, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:235_033	view { "current_prob": 0.58059 } { "delta": -0.08467227078827999, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.496 blend=0.496 LLR=-0.342 κ=0.87 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.49591772921172006, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:236_010	view { "current_prob": 0.53975 } { "delta": -0.1312855991542729, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.408 blend=0.408 LLR=-0.530 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.40846440084572705, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:236_025	view { "current_prob": 0.48237 } { "delta": -0.05864466177649852, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.424 blend=0.424 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4237253382235015, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:236_048	view { "current_prob": 0.58675 } { "delta": -0.07394362515720887, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.513 blend=0.513 LLR=-0.299 κ=0.87 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5128063748427911, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:237_011	view { "current_prob": 0.48518 } { "delta": -0.05045967682827002, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.435 blend=0.435 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.43472032317173, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:238_005	view { "current_prob": 0.44788 } { "delta": -0.07835348104797457, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.370 blend=0.370 LLR=-0.325 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.36952651895202543, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:238_023	view { "current_prob": 0.38533 } { "delta": -0.2315443075924337, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.328 blend=0.154 LLR=-0.250 κ=0.82 w_in=0.56 regulatory_freeze_window", "current_prob": 0.15378569240756632, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:238_025	view { "current_prob": 0.49497 } { "delta": -0.06684897691107011, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.428 blend=0.428 LLR=-0.269 κ=0.72 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4281210230889299, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:238_068	view { "current_prob": 0.47266 } { "delta": -0.0500787510532229, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.423 blend=0.423 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4225812489467771, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:239_002	view { "current_prob": 0.37106 } { "delta": -0.12699424028227674, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.313 blend=0.244 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 w_in=0.43 agi_breakthrough_5y", "current_prob": 0.24406575971772326, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:239_003	view { "current_prob": 0.55001 } { "delta": -0.06499534023110137, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.485 blend=0.485 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4850146597688986, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:239_013	view { "current_prob": 0.2969 } { "delta": -0.15940325641924621, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.162 blend=0.137 LLR=-0.782 κ=0.64 w_in=0.65 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.13749674358075378, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:239_033	view { "current_prob": 0.48478 } { "delta": -0.16716118124219354, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.318 blend=0.318 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.31761881875780645, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:240_014	view { "current_prob": 0.53975 } { "delta": -0.21919737507031256, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.321 blend=0.321 LLR=-0.911 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3205526249296874, "n_milestones": 4 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:240_025	view { "current_prob": 0.55311 } { "delta": -0.006294199042107929, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.470 blend=0.547 LLR=-0.335 κ=0.87 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.5468158009578921, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:240_033	view { "current_prob": 0.49494 } { "delta": -0.06151593521892962, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.433 blend=0.433 LLR=-0.248 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4334240647810704, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:240_037	view { "current_prob": 0.45147 } { "delta": -0.15929734714085714, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.292 blend=0.292 LLR=-0.690 κ=0.87 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.29217265285914285, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:240_050	view { "current_prob": 0.54275 } { "delta": -0.07063643540130926, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.472 blend=0.472 LLR=-0.283 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4721135645986907, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:240_056	view { "current_prob": 0.58469 } { "delta": -0.2560280179291355, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.329 blend=0.329 LLR=-1.056 κ=0.87 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.32866198207086456, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:241_003	view { "current_prob": 0.53377 } { "delta": -0.05916297021707795, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.475 blend=0.475 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.474607029782922, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:241_020	view { "current_prob": 0.5198 } { "delta": -0.03371594133598366, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.454 blend=0.486 LLR=-0.265 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y", "current_prob": 0.4860840586640164, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:241_022	view { "current_prob": 0.50324 } { "delta": -0.13610849682519466, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.367 blend=0.367 LLR=-0.558 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.36713150317480536, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:242_014	view { "current_prob": 0.49494 } { "delta": -0.06151593521892962, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.433 blend=0.433 LLR=-0.248 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4334240647810704, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:242_044	view { "current_prob": 0.43161 } { "delta": -0.08045975219174806, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.351 blend=0.351 LLR=-0.339 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.35115024780825194, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:242_046	view { "current_prob": 0.5178 } { "delta": -0.15461550920970535, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.363 blend=0.363 LLR=-0.633 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3631844907902947, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:243_027	view { "current_prob": 0.48237 } { "delta": -0.05523771724975585, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.427 blend=0.427 LLR=-0.223 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4271322827502442, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:243_029	view { "current_prob": 0.30924 } { "delta": -0.04821016842090897, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.261 blend=0.261 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.26102983157909104, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:243_035	view { "current_prob": 0.54718 } { "delta": -0.05908885230542954, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.488 blend=0.488 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.48809114769457046, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:243_040	view { "current_prob": 0.53728 } { "delta": -0.0688806979208017, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.468 blend=0.468 LLR=-0.276 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4683993020791983, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:243_041	view { "current_prob": 0.53753 } { "delta": -0.12919946449809483, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.408 blend=0.408 LLR=-0.521 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4083305355019051, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:244_016	view { "current_prob": 0.53975 } { "delta": -0.26033084898711245, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.279 blend=0.279 LLR=-1.107 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.2794191510128875, "n_milestones": 4 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:245_014	view { "current_prob": 0.45031 } { "delta": -0.24996728624878506, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=5 inside=0.200 blend=0.200 LLR=-1.185 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.20034271375121493, "n_milestones": 5 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:245_017	view { "current_prob": 0.40352 } { "delta": -0.039525476845772456, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.364 blend=0.364 LLR=-0.167 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.36399452315422753, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:245_027	view { "current_prob": 0.45031 } { "delta": -0.06763101031496072, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.383 blend=0.383 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3826789896850393, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_001	view { "current_prob": 0.80978 } { "delta": -0.1975080210670087, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.678 blend=0.612 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 w_in=0.61 ipo_trillion_plus", "current_prob": 0.6122719789329913, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_002	view { "current_prob": 0.60634 } { "delta": -0.17399142774670306, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.432 blend=0.432 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4323485722532969, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_004	view { "current_prob": 0.58132 } { "delta": -0.1751885542298237, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.392 blend=0.406 LLR=-1.056 κ=0.87 w_in=0.87 ipo_trillion_plus", "current_prob": 0.40613144577017624, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_015	view { "current_prob": 0.47815 } { "delta": -0.0620175302015985, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.352 blend=0.416 LLR=-0.521 κ=0.64 w_in=0.56 mars_uncrewed_landing_window", "current_prob": 0.4161324697984015, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_036	view { "current_prob": 0.54637 } { "delta": -0.09944294734902243, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.331 blend=0.447 LLR=-1.324 κ=0.87 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y", "current_prob": 0.4469270526509776, "n_milestones": 4 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:246_040	view { "current_prob": 0.47458 } { "delta": -0.06357832483545767, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.411 blend=0.411 LLR=-0.258 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.41100167516454233, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:247_001	view { "current_prob": 0.52549 } { "delta": -0.11216981385798858, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.354 blend=0.413 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 w_in=0.58 ipo_trillion_plus", "current_prob": 0.41332018614201144, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_007	view { "current_prob": 0.40284 } { "delta": -0.03642434138579409, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.366 blend=0.366 LLR=-0.154 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3664156586142059, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_017	view { "current_prob": 0.53377 } { "delta": -0.14778099261216032, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.386 blend=0.386 LLR=-0.599 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.38598900738783964, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_035	view { "current_prob": 0.5294 } { "delta": -0.058213792336899384, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.471 blend=0.471 LLR=-0.233 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4711862076631006, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_041	view { "current_prob": 0.30619 } { "delta": -0.20600592876173973, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.237 blend=0.100 LLR=-0.352 κ=0.87 w_in=0.42 regulatory_freeze_window", "current_prob": 0.10018407123826027, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:248_043	view { "current_prob": 0.48518 } { "delta": -0.057770126826993506, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.427 blend=0.427 LLR=-0.233 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4274098731730065, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_003	view { "current_prob": 0.88 } { "delta": -0.10962858308715773, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.770 blend=0.770 LLR=-0.782 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.7703714169128423, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_004	view { "current_prob": 0.25 } { "delta": -0.08478952010838611, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.165 blend=0.165 LLR=-0.521 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.1652104798916139, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_009	view { "current_prob": 0.64357 } { "delta": -0.19428480506089169, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.449 blend=0.449 LLR=-0.794 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4492851949391083, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_013	view { "current_prob": 0.72 } { "delta": -0.09702567266960782, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.623 blend=0.623 LLR=-0.442 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6229743273303922, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_019	view { "current_prob": 0.55 } { "delta": -0.1504947438775982, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.400 blend=0.400 LLR=-0.608 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.39950525612240184, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_024	view { "current_prob": 0.49835 } { "delta": -0.13949629825261828, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.359 blend=0.359 LLR=-0.574 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.35885370174738174, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_027	view { "current_prob": 0.28293 } { "delta": -0.10607156057928516, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.177 blend=0.177 LLR=-0.608 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.17685843942071486, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_033	view { "current_prob": 0.78 } { "delta": -0.12130845949038316, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.659 blend=0.659 LLR=-0.608 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6586915405096169, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AI_034	view { "current_prob": 0.3 } { "delta": -0.08004294653718302, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.220 blend=0.220 LLR=-0.419 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.21995705346281696, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_001	view { "current_prob": 0.5577 } { "delta": -0.1730042579163139, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.327 blend=0.385 LLR=-0.951 κ=0.64 w_in=0.65 energy_grid_rebuild_5y", "current_prob": 0.38469574208368607, "n_milestones": 4 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_004	view { "current_prob": 0.68 } { "delta": -0.2571490838342398, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.423 blend=0.423 LLR=-1.065 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.42285091616576026, "n_milestones": 4 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_007	view { "current_prob": 0.18 } { "delta": -0.028010302174350993, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.152 blend=0.152 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.151989697825649, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_010	view { "current_prob": 0.67638 } { "delta": -0.13108210576372237, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.545 blend=0.545 LLR=-0.555 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5452978942362776, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_011	view { "current_prob": 0.53457 } { "delta": -0.0650739824607226, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.469 blend=0.469 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4694960175392774, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_013	view { "current_prob": 0.12434 } { "delta": -0.013260024653298258, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.120 blend=0.111 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 w_in=0.58 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.11107997534670175, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_016	view { "current_prob": 0.6948 } { "delta": -0.1529755732010839, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.542 blend=0.542 LLR=-0.655 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5418244267989161, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_020	view { "current_prob": 0.517 } { "delta": -0.14884973835824922, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.368 blend=0.368 LLR=-0.608 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3681502616417508, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_021	view { "current_prob": 0.66182 } { "delta": -0.09572116194437308, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.566 blend=0.566 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5660988380556269, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_024	view { "current_prob": 0.5 } { "delta": -0.20922733950428224, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.291 blend=0.291 LLR=-0.892 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.29077266049571776, "n_milestones": 4 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:AUT_028	view { "current_prob": 0.55194 } { "delta": -0.06949416168029182, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.482 blend=0.482 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.48244583831970816, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_001	view { "current_prob": 0.74413 } { "delta": -0.09972274688937444, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.644 blend=0.644 LLR=-0.473 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6444072531106255, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_013	view { "current_prob": 0.4038 } { "delta": -0.24874578609945036, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.227 blend=0.155 LLR=-0.836 κ=0.69 w_in=0.73 regulatory_freeze_window", "current_prob": 0.15505421390054963, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_014	view { "current_prob": 0.64357 } { "delta": -0.20460726478889418, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.439 blend=0.439 LLR=-0.836 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4389627352111058, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_015	view { "current_prob": 0.59761 } { "delta": -0.2608361854544035, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.337 blend=0.337 LLR=-1.073 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.33677381454559646, "n_milestones": 4 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_017	view { "current_prob": 0.75 } { "delta": -0.05579443453572441, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.694 blend=0.694 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6942055654642756, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_020	view { "current_prob": 0.61955 } { "delta": -0.11589922655624885, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.504 blend=0.504 LLR=-0.473 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5036507734437512, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_021	view { "current_prob": 0.8 } { "delta": -0.040528070247570325, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.759 blend=0.759 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.7594719297524297, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_023	view { "current_prob": 0.72156 } { "delta": -0.07026943882886949, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.651 blend=0.651 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6512905611711305, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_024	view { "current_prob": 0.69066 } { "delta": -0.0739240924464808, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.617 blend=0.617 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6167359075535193, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_025	view { "current_prob": 0.60073 } { "delta": -0.07640508530939416, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.524 blend=0.524 LLR=-0.311 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5243249146906058, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_026	view { "current_prob": 0.81162 } { "delta": -0.18201888140057498, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.630 blend=0.630 LLR=-0.930 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.629601118599425, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_028	view { "current_prob": 0.59761 } { "delta": -0.16211782882327175, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.435 blend=0.435 LLR=-0.655 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4354921711767282, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_030	view { "current_prob": 0.78 } { "delta": -0.061269696364790405, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.719 blend=0.719 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.7187303036352096, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_031	view { "current_prob": 0.7 } { "delta": -0.24465483159730977, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.455 blend=0.455 LLR=-1.026 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4553451684026902, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_033	view { "current_prob": 0.75481 } { "delta": -0.04635078063798814, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.708 blend=0.708 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.7084592193620118, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_036	view { "current_prob": 0.71751 } { "delta": -0.05029040437196841, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.667 blend=0.667 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6672195956280316, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_037	view { "current_prob": 0.5 } { "delta": -0.2140804547032592, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.286 blend=0.286 LLR=-0.915 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.2859195452967408, "n_milestones": 4 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_038	view { "current_prob": 0.85 } { "delta": -0.027720466210421124, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.822 blend=0.822 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.8222795337895789, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_039	view { "current_prob": 0.70819 } { "delta": -0.025798738466785376, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.759 blend=0.682 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 w_in=0.53 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.6823912615332146, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_040	view { "current_prob": 0.9 } { "delta": -0.042857142857142816, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.857 blend=0.857 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.8571428571428572, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_042	view { "current_prob": 0.72 } { "delta": -0.050051130642611574, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.670 blend=0.670 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6699488693573884, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_045	view { "current_prob": 0.55176 } { "delta": -0.058937769971560805, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.493 blend=0.493 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4928222300284392, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_046	view { "current_prob": 0.68 } { "delta": -0.05349222310492452, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.627 blend=0.627 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6265077768950755, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_047	view { "current_prob": 0.61066 } { "delta": -0.13749593631230478, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.473 blend=0.473 LLR=-0.558 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4731640636876952, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_050	view { "current_prob": 0.30742 } { "delta": -0.014864500065664643, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.656 blend=0.293 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 w_in=0.46 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.2925554999343354, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_052	view { "current_prob": 0.24255 } { "delta": -0.02172161849232576, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.374 blend=0.221 LLR=-0.313 κ=0.77 w_in=0.56 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.22082838150767423, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_056	view { "current_prob": 0.44313 } { "delta": -0.030177053069653736, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.778 blend=0.413 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 w_in=0.53 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.4129529469303463, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_057	view { "current_prob": 0.85 } { "delta": -0.059302325581395254, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.791 blend=0.791 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.7906976744186047, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_058	view { "current_prob": 0.70691 } { "delta": -0.05674877392206412, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.650 blend=0.650 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6501612260779359, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_059	view { "current_prob": 0.75481 } { "delta": -0.10845087155722655, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.646 blend=0.646 LLR=-0.521 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6463591284427734, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_061	view { "current_prob": 0.05 } { "delta": -0.006326245054808534, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.044 blend=0.044 LLR=-0.142 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.04367375494519147, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CMQ_062	view { "current_prob": 0.66425 } { "delta": -0.24943358262260085, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.415 blend=0.415 LLR=-1.026 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.41481641737739916, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:COD_BIO_001	view { "current_prob": 0.7 } { "delta": -0.2764648111105698, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.424 blend=0.424 LLR=-1.156 κ=0.95 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.42353518888943015, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:COD_BIO_002	view { "current_prob": 0.5 } { "delta": -0.25700260388614016, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.243 blend=0.243 LLR=-1.136 κ=0.95 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.24299739611385987, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:COD_SPC_001	view { "current_prob": 0.62 } { "delta": -0.09201422737806819, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.528 blend=0.528 LLR=-0.377 κ=0.95 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5279857726219318, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:COD_SPC_003	view { "current_prob": 0.35 } { "delta": -0.08188964202784105, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.268 blend=0.268 LLR=-0.385 κ=0.95 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.26811035797215893, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:COD_SPC_006	view { "current_prob": 0.5 } { "delta": -0.23512030214640633, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.265 blend=0.265 LLR=-1.021 κ=0.95 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.26487969785359367, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:COD_SPC_007	view { "current_prob": 0.75 } { "delta": -0.166797877917781, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.583 blend=0.583 LLR=-0.763 κ=0.95 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.583202122082219, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CYB_005	view { "current_prob": 0.29261 } { "delta": 0.04568130215626426, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.632 blend=0.338 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 w_in=0.65 regulatory_freeze_window", "current_prob": 0.33829130215626424, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CYB_008	view { "current_prob": 0.78 } { "delta": -0.04324726431972359, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.737 blend=0.737 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.7367527356802764, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:CYB_023	view { "current_prob": 0.28598 } { "delta": -0.042295165307989296, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.244 blend=0.244 LLR=-0.218 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.24368483469201072, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:FUT_004	view { "current_prob": 0.51815 } { "delta": -0.2388585457639345, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.475 blend=0.279 LLR=-0.172 κ=0.50 w_in=0.34 agi_breakthrough_5y", "current_prob": 0.2792914542360655, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:FUT_016	view { "current_prob": 0.55 } { "delta": -0.1010204081632653, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.449 blend=0.449 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.44897959183673475, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_003	view { "current_prob": 0.75 } { "delta": -0.2917212897051165, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.458 blend=0.458 LLR=-1.266 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4582787102948835, "n_milestones": 4 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_005	view { "current_prob": 0.45 } { "delta": -0.1248731850004487, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.325 blend=0.325 LLR=-0.530 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3251268149995513, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_006	view { "current_prob": 0.3753 } { "delta": -0.048142417746913524, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.632 blend=0.327 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 w_in=0.64 regulatory_freeze_window", "current_prob": 0.3271575822530865, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_007	view { "current_prob": 0.38 } { "delta": -0.07478738909875338, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.305 blend=0.305 LLR=-0.333 κ=0.82 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.30521261090124663, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_010	view { "current_prob": 0.50874 } { "delta": -0.10031631581675426, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.408 blend=0.408 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4084236841832457, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_011	view { "current_prob": 0.63139 } { "delta": -0.1488807980543035, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.483 blend=0.483 LLR=-0.608 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4825092019456965, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_012	view { "current_prob": 0.71751 } { "delta": -0.07079056350349111, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.647 blend=0.647 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6467194364965089, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_014	view { "current_prob": 0.6 } { "delta": -0.11688120306729544, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.483 blend=0.483 LLR=-0.473 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.48311879693270454, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_016	view { "current_prob": 0.17614 } { "delta": 0.076656700656235, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.125 blend=0.253 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 w_in=0.56 mars_uncrewed_landing_window", "current_prob": 0.252796700656235, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_019	view { "current_prob": 0.53062 } { "delta": -0.11732733351145469, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.413 blend=0.413 LLR=-0.473 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4132926664885453, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_023	view { "current_prob": 0.33054 } { "delta": -0.17965567748663766, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.199 blend=0.151 LLR=-0.684 κ=0.84 w_in=0.58 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.15088432251336234, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:IND_026	view { "current_prob": 0.6388 } { "delta": -0.1356351900075482, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.503 blend=0.503 LLR=-0.558 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5031648099924518, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_006	view { "current_prob": 0.43145 } { "delta": -0.04848344791641657, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.383 blend=0.383 LLR=-0.201 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.38296655208358343, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_011	view { "current_prob": 0.82127 } { "delta": -0.0932307182012524, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.783 blend=0.728 LLR=-0.710 κ=0.58 w_in=0.77 ipo_trillion_plus", "current_prob": 0.7280392817987476, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_014	view { "current_prob": 0.5 } { "delta": -0.058852872247948496, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.441 blend=0.441 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4411471277520515, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_016	view { "current_prob": 0.67862 } { "delta": -0.05927114550598167, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.619 blend=0.619 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6193488544940183, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_031	view { "current_prob": 0.7 } { "delta": -0.056811300259339226, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.643 blend=0.643 LLR=-0.258 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6431886997406607, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_032	view { "current_prob": 0.63934 } { "delta": -0.09767333333333328, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.542 blend=0.542 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5416666666666667, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_034	view { "current_prob": 0.8 } { "delta": -0.034412378314921166, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.766 blend=0.766 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.7655876216850789, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_040	view { "current_prob": 0.5 } { "delta": -0.09999999999999998, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.400 blend=0.400 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_042	view { "current_prob": 0.5221 } { "delta": -0.044571721850010015, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.478 blend=0.478 LLR=-0.178 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.47752827814999, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_047	view { "current_prob": 0.45 } { "delta": -0.09705882352941181, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.353 blend=0.353 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3529411764705882, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_052	view { "current_prob": 0.55 } { "delta": -0.04798131869078226, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.502 blend=0.502 LLR=-0.193 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5020186813092178, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_055	view { "current_prob": 0.21907 } { "delta": -0.021443925746006065, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.198 blend=0.198 LLR=-0.130 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.19762607425399392, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_066	view { "current_prob": 0.55629 } { "delta": -0.02010010264485118, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.619 blend=0.536 LLR=-0.270 κ=0.69 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y", "current_prob": 0.5361898973551488, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_068	view { "current_prob": 0.45 } { "delta": -0.05758651713820129, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.392 blend=0.392 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.3924134828617987, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:INF_073	view { "current_prob": 0.3 } { "delta": -0.051750720256699745, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.248 blend=0.248 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.24824927974330024, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:ROB_009	view { "current_prob": 0.1845 } { "delta": -0.07279138995792497, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.118 blend=0.112 LLR=-0.521 κ=0.64 w_in=0.65 humanoid_commercial_volume", "current_prob": 0.11170861004207502, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:ROB_011	view { "current_prob": 0.08 } { "delta": -0.017204644780385997, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.063 blend=0.063 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.062795355219614, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:ROB_015	view { "current_prob": 0.40376 } { "delta": -0.08118112976720626, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.323 blend=0.323 LLR=-0.352 κ=0.87 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.32257887023279375, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:ROB_021	view { "current_prob": 0.72005 } { "delta": -0.08511689093700292, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.635 blend=0.635 LLR=-0.391 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.634933109062997, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:ROB_023	view { "current_prob": 0.67165 } { "delta": -0.04615998994774828, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.625 blend=0.625 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6254900100522517, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_004	view { "current_prob": 0.78304 } { "delta": -0.05105967510739162, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.732 blend=0.732 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.7319803248926083, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_005	view { "current_prob": 0.7137 } { "delta": -0.09692134965229715, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.617 blend=0.617 LLR=-0.438 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6167786503477029, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_013	view { "current_prob": 0.72413 } { "delta": -0.030565710570945148, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.803 blend=0.694 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 w_in=0.46 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.6935642894290549, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_015	view { "current_prob": 0.69973 } { "delta": -0.29015534752576805, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.410 blend=0.410 LLR=-1.212 κ=0.81 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4095746524742319, "n_milestones": 4 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_016	view { "current_prob": 0.26496 } { "delta": -0.0712079909828742, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.194 blend=0.194 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.19375200901712578, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_017	view { "current_prob": 0.68888 } { "delta": -0.10023043724611125, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.596 blend=0.589 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 w_in=0.53 fab_construction_3y", "current_prob": 0.5886495627538888, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_018	view { "current_prob": 0.57048 } { "delta": -0.050223304665257484, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.520 blend=0.520 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5202566953347425, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_019	view { "current_prob": 0.63335 } { "delta": -0.09812089448720596, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.535 blend=0.535 LLR=-0.405 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.535229105512794, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_024	view { "current_prob": 0.78401 } { "delta": -0.13759499472707548, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.646 blend=0.646 LLR=-0.686 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.6464150052729245, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_025	view { "current_prob": 0.55188 } { "delta": -0.05007061137845081, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.502 blend=0.502 LLR=-0.201 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5018093886215492, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_028	view { "current_prob": 0.66066 } { "delta": -0.11250061752082186, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.548 blend=0.548 LLR=-0.473 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5481593824791782, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_030	view { "current_prob": 0.47266 } { "delta": -0.0500787510532229, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.423 blend=0.423 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4225812489467771, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_031	view { "current_prob": 0.72574 } { "delta": -0.15403056995320064, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.572 blend=0.572 LLR=-0.684 κ=0.84 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5717094300467994, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_038	view { "current_prob": 0.12248 } { "delta": -0.05359890678566158, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=4 inside=0.049 blend=0.069 LLR=-1.004 κ=0.64 w_in=0.77 agi_breakthrough_5y", "current_prob": 0.06888109321433843, "n_milestones": 4 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_044	view { "current_prob": 0.35127 } { "delta": -0.06483536720417787, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.286 blend=0.286 LLR=-0.299 κ=0.87 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.28643463279582215, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_046	view { "current_prob": 0.64598 } { "delta": -0.055756671167065175, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.590 blend=0.590 LLR=-0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.5902233288329348, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SEM_047	view { "current_prob": 0.79115 } { "delta": -0.04632792382116624, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.745 blend=0.745 LLR=-0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.7448220761788338, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_002	view { "current_prob": 0.48912 } { "delta": -0.028520034187253573, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.399 blend=0.461 LLR=-0.367 κ=0.58 w_in=0.39 ipo_trillion_plus", "current_prob": 0.4605999658127464, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_005	view { "current_prob": 0.59761 } { "delta": -0.17547436096897306, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.422 blend=0.422 LLR=-0.710 κ=0.58 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4221356390310269, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_012	view { "current_prob": 0.44917 } { "delta": -0.02210275010504953, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.273 blend=0.427 LLR=-0.299 κ=0.87 w_in=0.30 mars_uncrewed_landing_window", "current_prob": 0.4270672498949505, "n_milestones": 1 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_020	view { "current_prob": 0.36058 } { "delta": -0.12900675818394153, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.232 blend=0.232 LLR=-0.627 κ=0.77 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.23157324181605848, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_022	view { "current_prob": 0.62 } { "delta": -0.1369850366709125, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.483 blend=0.483 LLR=-0.558 κ=0.69 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.4830149633290875, "n_milestones": 2 }
2026-05-02 22:07:21	`metadata_milestone_sweep`	`node.metadata_milestone_miss`	node:SPC_028	view { "current_prob": 0.38618 } { "delta": -0.16268580513870765, "reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.223 blend=0.223 LLR=-0.782 κ=0.64 no_blend", "current_prob": 0.22349419486129238, "n_milestones": 3 }
2026-05-02 21:41:19	`backfill_resolution_history`	`resolution_history.backfill`	nodes:terminal_predictions	view {} { "skipped": 0, "prob_history_rows": 2, "resolved_at_updates": 0, "current_prob_updated": false }
2026-05-02 20:45:40	`stage_recalibration_candidates`	`prediction.recalibration_candidate.stage`	prediction:batch	view {} { "script": "scripts/ops/stage_recalibration_candidates.py", "updated": 40, "candidate_count": 40 }
2026-05-02 20:45:40	`seed_source_reliability`	`source_reliability.seed`	source_reliability:initial_source_priors	view {} { "seed_count": 220, "update_existing": false, "include_document_hosts": true }
2026-05-02 20:45:40	`backfill_resolution_history`	`resolution_history.backfill`	nodes:terminal_predictions	view {} { "skipped": 0, "prob_history_rows": 108, "resolved_at_updates": 108, "current_prob_updated": false }
2026-05-02 16:14:59	`seed_source_reliability`	`source_reliability.seed`	source_reliability:initial_source_priors	view {} { "seed_count": 11, "update_existing": false }
2026-05-02 03:20:48	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_4e7b1ca6	view { "input_file": "_stash/_phase2_batch4.json", "predictions_in_batch": 10 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 45, "predictions_updated": 10 }
2026-05-02 03:20:48	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_fd32b88c	view { "input_file": "_stash/_phase2_batch3.json", "predictions_in_batch": 10 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 44, "predictions_updated": 10 }
2026-05-02 03:20:48	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_fe7deb95	view { "input_file": "_stash/_phase2_batch2.json", "predictions_in_batch": 10 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 45, "predictions_updated": 10 }
2026-05-02 03:20:48	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_ea997077	view { "input_file": "_stash/_phase2_batch1.json", "predictions_in_batch": 4 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 22, "predictions_updated": 4 }
2026-05-02 03:20:47	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_95770c60	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_waveFinal.json", "predictions_in_batch": 9 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 31, "predictions_updated": 9 }
2026-05-02 03:20:47	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_a6cb82ab	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave18_lot2.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 65, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:47	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_9662a623	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave18_lot1.json", "predictions_in_batch": 14 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 73, "predictions_updated": 14 }
2026-05-02 03:20:46	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_249d3430	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave17_lot7.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 75, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:46	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_d798037a	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave17_lot6.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 66, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:46	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_7d21c832	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave17_lot3.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 71, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:46	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_750f482e	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave17_lot2.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 70, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:45	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_e42ace94	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave17_lot1.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 78, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:45	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_5c967e09	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave16_lot6.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 66, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:45	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_e79a8c62	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave16_lot5.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 66, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:45	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_14dcf415	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave16_lot4.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 78, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:44	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_f66848c1	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave15_lot7.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 65, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:44	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_814dec81	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave15_lot6.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 78, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:44	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_d3ffec7b	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave15_lot4.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 77, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:43	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_01f73671	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave15_lot2.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 64, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:43	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_1bfe30ec	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave14_lot8.json", "predictions_in_batch": 9 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 51, "predictions_updated": 9 }
2026-05-02 03:20:43	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_1df86647	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave14_lot7.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 64, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:42	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_10eff8c5	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave14_lot4.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 59, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:42	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_8cfdf07e	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave14_lot3.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 78, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:42	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_4847ee22	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave14_lot2.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 78, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:41	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_20fd3af7	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave13_lot8.json", "predictions_in_batch": 2 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 12, "predictions_updated": 2 }
2026-05-02 03:20:41	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_1cd1a9c3	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave13_lot7.json", "predictions_in_batch": 7 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 36, "predictions_updated": 7 }
2026-05-02 03:20:41	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_bdbc75ca	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave13_lot6.json", "predictions_in_batch": 7 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 38, "predictions_updated": 7 }
2026-05-02 03:20:40	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_ba649622	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave13_lot4.json", "predictions_in_batch": 7 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 42, "predictions_updated": 7 }
2026-05-02 03:20:40	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_7ca4ac86	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave12_lot7.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 78, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:40	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_addffd91	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave12_lot2.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 63, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:39	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_e9c6a1db	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave11_lot6.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 65, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:39	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_1bd7a305	view { "input_file": "scripts/ops/_phase2_wave11_lot4.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 54, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:39	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_bd9ed6d0	view { "input_file": "_phase2_waveA1.json", "predictions_in_batch": 15 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 51, "predictions_updated": 15 }
2026-05-02 03:20:39	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_686b051c	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave9_lot8.json", "predictions_in_batch": 9 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 45, "predictions_updated": 9 }
2026-05-02 03:20:38	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_174403b8	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave9_lot7.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 7, "new_entries": 43, "predictions_updated": 8 }
2026-05-02 03:20:38	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_00aa85b3	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave9_lot6.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 65, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:38	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_40258e4d	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave9_lot5.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 65, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:37	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_5e9bcff3	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave9_lot4.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 65, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:37	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_f8265b20	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave9_lot3.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 64, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:37	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_b4784925	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave9_lot2.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 65, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:36	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_39f26a07	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave9_lot1.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 65, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:36	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_bfa32cbc	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave8_lot8.json", "predictions_in_batch": 9 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 52, "predictions_updated": 9 }
2026-05-02 03:20:36	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_39df6c70	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave8_lot7.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 65, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:35	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_5b94be30	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave8_lot6.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 67, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:35	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_52787457	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave8_lot5.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 65, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:35	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_4fd3723a	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave8_lot4.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 69, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:35	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_da636d4b	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave8_lot3.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 75, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:34	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_2537d869	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave8_lot2.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 55, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:34	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_4774eed3	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave8_lot1.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 58, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:34	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_28baadd1	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave7_lot8.json", "predictions_in_batch": 9 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 54, "predictions_updated": 9 }
2026-05-02 03:20:33	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_56626b80	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave7_lot7.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 65, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:33	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_bb7e8779	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave7_lot6.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 67, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:33	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_74e54e38	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave7_lot5.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 67, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:32	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_351eb919	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave7_lot4.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 67, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:32	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_648352f6	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave7_lot3.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 66, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:32	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_d8ac4502	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave7_lot2.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 12, "new_entries": 20, "predictions_updated": 4 }
2026-05-02 03:20:32	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_02b747e3	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave7_lot1.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 78, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:31	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_e85628ed	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave6_lot8.json", "predictions_in_batch": 9 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 47, "predictions_updated": 9 }
2026-05-02 03:20:31	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_8a178be8	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave6_lot7.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 67, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:31	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_8fadf103	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave6_lot6.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 4, "new_entries": 46, "predictions_updated": 9 }
2026-05-02 03:20:30	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_f52609af	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave6_lot5.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 77, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:30	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_75687fc3	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave6_lot4.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 10, "new_entries": 25, "predictions_updated": 5 }
2026-05-02 03:20:30	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_055391c2	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave6_lot3.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 68, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:29	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_c637b91a	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave6_lot2.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 17, "new_entries": 20, "predictions_updated": 4 }
2026-05-02 03:20:29	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_1402f3b6	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave6_lot1.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 75, "predictions_updated": 13 }
2026-05-02 03:20:29	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_3e59984e	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave5_lot8.json", "predictions_in_batch": 9 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 54, "predictions_updated": 9 }
2026-05-02 03:20:29	`apply_llm_milestones`	`nodes.metadata.milestones.phase2`	nodes:phase2_addbc90e	view { "input_file": "_phase2_wave5_lot7.json", "predictions_in_batch": 13 } { "errors": 0, "new_entries": 64, "predictions_updated": 13 }