Audit Log
Immutable change log. Every probability update, intake apply, validation adjudication, and bulk operation writes a row here with structured before/after JSON. Use these records to reconstruct any historical state. ← Ops
Total entries
705
Filtered
705
page 1 / 15
Distinct actions
33
Distinct kinds
16
Filters
Action
Allauto_corroborate.rundoc_node_link.bulk_confirmdoc_node_link.confirmedges.isolated_high_conv_linkedges.phase2a_strength_gradingedges.scenario_correlate_backfilledges.weight_tune_v1intake.appliedkappa_decay_runlbp.completednode.bulk_resolution_fixnode.bulk_updatenode.metadata_milestone_missnode.milestone_missnodes.metadata.display_datenodes.metadata.milestonesnodes.metadata.milestones.phase2nodes.metadata.resolved_atprediction_conflicts.runprediction.recalibration_candidate.stagepredictions.december_dispersalpredictions.scenario_assignmentpredictions.tier3_reviewpredictors.brier_recomputerecommendations.bulk_importrecommendations.refresh.runreference_class_base_rate_refreshreference_class.overrideresearch_event_pack.applyresolution_history.backfillscenario.bulk_createsource_reliability.seedtrajectories.create_correlate_edges
Target kind
Actor (top 50)
Allapply_llm_milestonesapply_low_confidence_decisionsassign_predictions_to_scenariosbackfill_resolution_historybackfill_resolved_atbuild_scenario_pathscodexcompute_brier_scorescompute_display_datesderive_milestonesdisperse_december_bunchingfix_partial_classificationintake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac…intake:568095f6-eb44-4f96-92d3-13455b…intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14…intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87…intake:c130222f-ab93-4d94-b596-5f4dc7…lbp_run:0c8a4ea3431elbp_run:1a683ac9e205lbp_run:1c6a06976c86lbp_run:592311ef6bcalbp_run:806b02f82f58lbp_run:807dd6f649b1lbp_run:ba893ab6499flbp_run:cd8605f31f33lbp_run:e5c18d29fb42lbp_run:e607fa961f0blbp_run:ffd25072aee9link_trajectories_to_dimensionsmanual_overridemetadata_milestone_sweepmilestone_miss_sweepphase_2A.2_graderphase_2A.3_isolated_linkerphase_2A_backfillphase2_part3_smoke_testphase3_p4_smoke_testphase3_p6_smoke_testseed_source_reliabilitystage_recalibration_candidatessystem:auto_corroboratesystem:decay_predictor_kappasystem:detect_prediction_conflictssystem:import_recommendationssystem:refresh_recommendationssystem:refresh_reference_class_base_r…tune_edge_weights
| When | Actor | Action | Target | Before → After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 02:00:00 | lbp_run:ba893ab6499f | lbp.completed | lbp_run:ba893ab6499f | view{
"edge_count": 11986,
"node_count": 1659
}{
"residual": 0.005959,
"converged": true,
"top_moves": [
{
"delta": 0.13494,
"node_id": "248_019"
},
{
"delta": 0.10018,
"node_id": "248_037"
},
{
"delta": 0.09201,
"node_id": "229_030"
},
{
"delta": 0.08955,
"node_id": "CMQ_052"
},
{
"delta": 0.08925,
"node_id": "CMQ_004"
},
{
"delta": 0.0891,
"node_id": "IND_023"
},
{
"delta": 0.08475,
"node_id": "INF_004"
},
{
"delta": 0.08399,
"node_id": "235_019"
},
{
"delta": 0.08184,
"node_id": "238_003"
},
{
"delta": 0.08119,
"node_id": "CYB_005"
}
],
"iterations": 5,
"applied_beliefs": false,
"n_significant_moves": 166
} |
| 2026-06-06 22:10:14 | system:refresh_recommendations | recommendations.refresh.run | — | view{
"recs_examined": 582,
"positions_examined": 34
}{
"alerts_queued": 0
} |
| 2026-06-06 22:10:13 | system:detect_prediction_conflicts | prediction_conflicts.run | — | view{
"summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}{
"detected": 0
} |
| 2026-06-06 22:10:13 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-06-06 22:10:12 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.633284,
"kappa_old": 0.6333,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.000043,
"kappa_new": 0.849857,
"kappa_old": 0.8499,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000046,
"kappa_new": 0.874954,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000042,
"kappa_new": 0.843758,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000027,
"kappa_new": 0.722173,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000027,
"kappa_new": 0.722173,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000034,
"kappa_new": 0.772666,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000038,
"kappa_new": 0.807662,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000018,
"kappa_new": 0.642882,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.00004,
"kappa_new": 0.82136,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 14.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000023,
"kappa_new": 0.687477,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 14.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-06-06 22:10:11 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:238_044 | view{
"current_prob": 0.39482
}{
"delta": -0.0781723945161476,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.317 blend=0.317 LLR=-0.342 κ=0.84 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.3166476054838524,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-06-06 22:10:11 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:IND_010 | view{
"current_prob": 0.48227
}{
"delta": -0.05027030411117117,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.432 blend=0.432 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4319996958888288,
"n_milestones": 1
} |
| 2026-06-05 22:16:05 | system:refresh_recommendations | recommendations.refresh.run | — | view{
"recs_examined": 554,
"positions_examined": 34
}{
"alerts_queued": 0
} |
| 2026-06-05 22:16:05 | system:detect_prediction_conflicts | prediction_conflicts.run | — | view{
"summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
}{
"detected": 0
} |
| 2026-06-05 22:16:04 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
"summary": "R3 refresh start",
"examined": 19
}{
"rows": [],
"below": [
{
"n": 10,
"id": "mega_market_cap_5y"
},
{
"n": 15,
"id": "ai_capability_milestone_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "memory_supercycle_2y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "hyperscaler_capex_forecast_2y"
},
{
"n": 10,
"id": "gpu_roadmap_on_time_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "single_stock_target_1y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "ai_catastrophic_misuse_1y"
},
{
"n": 8,
"id": "av_deployment_scale_2y"
},
{
"n": 20,
"id": "political_crisis_2y"
},
{
"n": 5,
"id": "agi_breakthrough_5y"
},
{
"n": 12,
"id": "fab_construction_3y"
},
{
"n": 3,
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus"
},
{
"n": 4,
"id": "regulatory_freeze_window"
},
{
"n": 6,
"id": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y"
},
{
"n": 18,
"id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window"
},
{
"n": 0,
"id": "taiwan_kinetic_conflict_2y"
}
],
"updated": 0,
"examined": 19,
"below_threshold": 17,
"min_n_threshold": 30
} |
| 2026-06-05 22:16:04 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
"summary": "C4 κ decay run start",
"examined": 104
}{
"rows": [
{
"name": "Ben Lamm",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Nvidia",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley",
"delta": -0.000015,
"kappa_new": 0.633285,
"kappa_old": 0.6333,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis",
"delta": -0.000043,
"kappa_new": 0.874957,
"kappa_old": 0.875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Codex Research Pack",
"delta": -0.00004,
"kappa_new": 0.84986,
"kappa_old": 0.8499,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Micron",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Demis Hassabis",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Superforecaster Community",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Dario Amodei",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Salim Ismail",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Anthropic",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"delta": -0.000039,
"kappa_new": 0.843761,
"kappa_old": 0.8438,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Andrej Karpathy",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Emad Mostaque",
"delta": -0.000026,
"kappa_new": 0.722174,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Elon Musk",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Joseph Moore",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Jack Dorsey",
"delta": -0.000026,
"kappa_new": 0.722174,
"kappa_old": 0.7222,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Joe Liemandt",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Kevin Weil",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Jimmy Ba",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "SpaceX",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Brett Adcock",
"delta": -0.000031,
"kappa_new": 0.772669,
"kappa_old": 0.7727,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Video Narration (SpaceX)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Jensen Huang",
"delta": -0.000035,
"kappa_new": 0.807665,
"kappa_old": 0.8077,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Alex Finn",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "David Holz",
"delta": -0.000016,
"kappa_new": 0.642884,
"kappa_old": 0.6429,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Dave Blundin",
"delta": -0.000037,
"kappa_new": 0.821363,
"kappa_old": 0.8214,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Michael Saylor",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "New Market Pitch",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"delta": -0.00001,
"kappa_new": 0.58329,
"kappa_old": 0.5833,
"days_since": 13.97
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmidt",
"delta": -0.000022,
"kappa_new": 0.687478,
"kappa_old": 0.6875,
"days_since": 13.97
}
],
"alpha": 0.003,
"updated": 38,
"examined": 104,
"kappa_prior": 0.5,
"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-06-05 22:16:02 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:237_026 | view{
"current_prob": 0.45455
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| 2026-06-05 22:16:02 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:238_003 | view{
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| 2026-06-05 22:16:02 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:243_009 | view{
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| 2026-06-05 22:16:02 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:246_007 | view{
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| 2026-06-05 22:16:02 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:246_012 | view{
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| 2026-06-05 22:16:02 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:248_019 | view{
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| 2026-06-05 22:16:02 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:248_037 | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:08 | system:refresh_recommendations | recommendations.refresh.run | — | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:08 | system:detect_prediction_conflicts | prediction_conflicts.run | — | view{
"summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:07 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:07 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:05 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:229_020 | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:05 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:229_030 | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:05 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:240_007 | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:05 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:241_041 | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:05 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_008 | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:05 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:242_020 | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:05 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:248_014 | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:05 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:248_020 | view{
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| 2026-06-04 22:12:05 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:248_029 | view{
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| 2026-06-03 22:11:48 | system:refresh_recommendations | recommendations.refresh.run | — | view{
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| 2026-06-03 22:11:48 | system:detect_prediction_conflicts | prediction_conflicts.run | — | view{
"summary": "D5 conflict-detect run start"
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| 2026-06-03 22:11:47 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
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| 2026-06-03 22:11:46 | system:decay_predictor_kappa | kappa_decay_run | — | view{
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| 2026-06-03 22:11:45 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:241_035 | view{
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| 2026-06-02 22:14:45 | system:refresh_recommendations | recommendations.refresh.run | — | view{
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| 2026-06-02 22:14:44 | system:detect_prediction_conflicts | prediction_conflicts.run | — | view{
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| 2026-06-02 22:14:44 | system:refresh_reference_class_base_rates | reference_class_base_rate_refresh | — | view{
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| 2026-06-01 22:11:03 | system:refresh_recommendations | recommendations.refresh.run | — | view{
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| 2026-06-01 22:11:03 | system:detect_prediction_conflicts | prediction_conflicts.run | — | view{
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"max_daily_decay": 0.01,
"decay_horizon_days": 365
} |
| 2026-06-01 22:11:01 | metadata_milestone_sweep | node.metadata_milestone_miss | node:CMQ_045 | view{
"current_prob": 0.49282
}{
"delta": -0.06371265921497637,
"reason": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.429 blend=0.429 LLR=-0.257 κ=0.63 no_blend",
"current_prob": 0.4291073407850236,
"n_milestones": 1
} |