0 25 50 75 100 history 230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis ✓ 238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now ✓ 240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months ✓ AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake ✓ 238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) ✓ CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20 ✓ AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o ✓ 240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 ✓ FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna ✓ AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en ✓ 242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission ✓ 244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years ✓ 241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation ✓ 229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne ✓ IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct ✓ SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S ✓ SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil ✓ SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on ✓ 232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti ✓ 241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom ✓ AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓ 234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 ✓ 242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license ✓ 233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra ✓ CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val ✓ 246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). ✓ 238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) ✓ 247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston ✓ AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using ✓ IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do ✓ AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓ CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la ✓ AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c ✓ CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba ✓ 247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial ✓ 235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). ✓ 245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE ✓ CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o ✓ 246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. ✓ FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain- ✓ ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin ✓ ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU ✓ INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva ✓ INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula ✓ SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f ✓ SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. ✓ INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n ✓ 229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. ✓ 248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. ✓ 248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each. ✓ ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence- ✓ CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to ✓ 235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. ✓ SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc ✓ SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f ✓ 237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca ✓ 238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days ✓ 232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. ✓ 241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long ✓ 245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed ✓ SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme ✓ 248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. ✓ SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200 ✓ 229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. ✓ CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re ✓ CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi ✓ CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr ✓ SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate ✓ INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup ✓ INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor ✓ SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. ✓ SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying ✓ SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓ SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu ✓ SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual ✓ 231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. ✗ 231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. ✗ 235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. ✗ 244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years ◐ 239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world ◐ INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol ◐ 232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani ◐ 236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours ◐ SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad ◐ AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey ◐ 238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi ◐ 231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. ◐ CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐ 246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. ◐ AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree ◐ 246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). ◐ 247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently ◐ 245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus ◐ INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn ◐ INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat ◐ 246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. ◐ INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob ◐ SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se ◐ ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar ◐ INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await ◐ SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr ◐ INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive ◐ SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐ SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na ◐ SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u ◐ SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast ◐ SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10 ◐ SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci ◐ CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go ◐ INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — ◐ INF_031 resolved partial on 2028-10-31 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper oversight ◐ INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive ◐ SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a ◐ Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2027 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2028 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2029 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2030 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2031 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2032 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2033 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2034 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2035 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2036 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2037 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2038 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2039 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2040 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2041 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2042 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2043 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2044 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2045 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2046 Feb Mar Apr May Jun today pre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-17 — Figure publicly demonstrates a robot performing assembly task on BotQ line pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure announces new funding round or BotQ-specific partner pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-16 — First Figure robot officially deployed at BotQ in production role cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — BotQ cumulative production count disclosed (≥100 units) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Customer deployment count increases post-BotQ ramp cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time pre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). pre #5 · overdue · 2026-04-01 — Figure announces second major US enterprise customer pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour rate pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-30 — Figure 03 commercial deployment with BMW Spartanburg confirmed cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Figure 03 unit shipments exceed 1,000 units across customers in 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku facility cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — First sub-scale humanoid maker shuts down or absorbs into larger player pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-18 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Top 3 humanoid players capture >70% of commercial deployment volume pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Chinese humanoid players (Unitree, UBTech, Xiaomi) carve geographic moat pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-07-01 — Industry settles to <=6 global players by 2028 end pre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #2 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Humanoid robot deployed in another humanoid's manufacturing line (robots-build-robots first instance) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-03 — Humanoid manufacturing line where >=20% of assembly steps are performed by other humanoids cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Cascade: First fully-autonomous humanoid-built humanoid (recursive manufacturing) cascade #2 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 pre #5 · pending · 2030-07-02 — Goldman Sachs base-case humanoid shipments cross 250K units globally (2030) pre #4 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 pre #3 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Global humanoid shipments reach 1.4M/yr (Goldman base 2035 forecast) pre #2 · pending · 2035-07-02 — Humanoid installed base reaches 100M units (one per 80 humans) pre #1 · pending · 2037-12-01 — Humanoid installed base reaches 10B+ units — Adcock's full prediction (one-per-human plus 5-10B commercial) cascade #1 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-31 — Google DeepMind ships robotic foundation model with major-OEM partnership pre #5 · pending · 2026-10-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Apple humanoid/tabletop robot product launch announced pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Microsoft formally enters humanoid robotics (acquisition or platform) pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — ≥5 Mag-7 companies have material humanoid exposure by end-2027 pre #6 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Figure cumulative production crosses 1,000 robots pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — BotQ first-gen line annualized capacity reaches 12,000 robots/year pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Baku BotQ-2 facility broken ground / construction announced pre #1 · pending · 2027-08-25 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-03-01 — Cumulative Figure production reaches 100,000 over 4-year horizon cascade #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Millions of robots NOT achieved by 2028-11-30 pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure BotQ scales to ~12,000 robots/year capacity pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure shifts from 'thousands' to 'tens of thousands' annual production pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First commercial customer reaches 1,000-unit deployment pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Figure announces second BotQ-style facility / 100K-unit scale-up cascade #1 · pending · 2028-05-31 — Figure reaches 'hundreds of thousands' annual run rate pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-03 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Tesla Optimus reaches sub-$30K production cost (mass scale) pre #4 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-08-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Total humanoid units shipped globally crosses 100K cumulative cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid robot priced at $10K (low end of prediction range) pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-20 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-14 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — BMW / Mercedes / Hyundai / Amazon publicly confirm humanoid replacement of legacy non-humanoid robots in production pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-21 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Mining / construction / agriculture continue specialized non-humanoid robotics scale-up (counter-evidence) pre #2 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure BotQ ramp + Optimus + Unitree combined annual humanoid output exceeds 200K units pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Form-factor consensus narrative shift: Wall Street / IFR / McKinsey adopt 'humanoid-first' default cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Humanoid robots become >50% of total annual industrial-robot shipment growth pre #6 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot) pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure 03 production rate at 1/hour or higher cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure publishes Helix unseen-environment benchmark (zero-shot home tasks) cascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Second customer for Figure beyond BMW (commercial or consumer) cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Human intervention rate disclosed at <=1 per day on home tasks cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-06-15 — Figure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacity pre #2 · pending · 2026-10-30 — First Figure 03 unit ships to non-employee paying alpha customer (home) pre #1 · pending · 2027-03-02 — Figure publishes home-deployment intervention rate / autonomy benchmark cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-02 — Cascade: Figure achieves >=100 home alpha deployments by EOY 2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-05-31 — Helix v3 long-horizon planning model deployed enabling multi-step home task execution pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-01 — BotQ commercial-scale manufacturing facility supports alpha unit production pre #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Figure begins alpha home test program — robot enters Adcock's residence for end-to-end household work cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Figure publishes early intervention metrics from home alpha (interventions per hour or per task) cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Second major industrial customer beyond BMW deploys Figure 03 pre #5 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026 pre #4 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Figure announces consumer/home alpha pilot program pre #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure 03 reaches BotQ 12K/year throughput milestone pre #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Figure demonstrates unsupervised multi-day in-home autonomy pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First paying retail customer takes delivery of Figure robot in private home cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments cascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-09 — Agibot captured 39% of global humanoid market in 2025 pre #5 · hit · 2026-02-28 — Unitree ships >5,500 humanoids vs Figure ~150 in 2025 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — US humanoid OEM crosses 1,000 unit annual production cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Western humanoid maker raises $1B+ at $20B+ valuation cascade #3 · hit · 2026-04-09 — Chinese humanoid output projected to surge 94% in 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Federal trade restrictions on Chinese humanoid imports cascade #5 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #6 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First humanoid-robot deployment with active human co-working (no isolation barrier) pre #5 · pending · 2027-10-10 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2028-01-01 — ISO/IEC publishes humanoid-specific safety standard (analogous to ISO 13482 for service robots) pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-16 — First independent dataset shows humanoid-robot injury rate <=10% of human-equivalent task injury rate pre #2 · pending · 2028-06-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-08-11 — Insurance industry creates dedicated workers-comp/liability product class for humanoid-robot deployers pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Figure publicly cites order book or wait-list metric cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Figure or peer humanoid private-round implies $50B+ valuation cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start as parallel demand validation cascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Industry-wide humanoid order book exceeds 100,000 units cumulatively cascade #5 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First public-market humanoid IPO or direct listing cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Global humanoid demand reaches 30,000 units in 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Tesla Optimus external customer shipments begin pre #4 · pending · 2027-03-14 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-07-01 — Foundation deploys 10,000 humanoids in 2026, 50,000 by end-2027 pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-10-01 — Cumulative humanoid robots deployed in SF Bay Area exceeds 5,000 cascade #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — More-humanoids-than-humans density NOT achieved in any SF block by 2028-11-30 pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-31 — Figure Grid facility opens with 24/7 operations pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour rate pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-01 — Figure production triples from March to May 2026 cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-19 — Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Figure achieves 30-min production cadence in Baku cascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-16 — Cumulative Figure 03 deployment crosses 1000 units cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time pre #6 · pending · 2026-10-25 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-04-21 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Figure or competitor announces NASA / DoD humanoid space partnership pre #3 · pending · 2027-09-16 — First space-DC announcement (Lonestar, Axiom, Starcloud) cites humanoid assembly pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-16 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-16 — First humanoid microgravity demo (parabolic flight or ISS) cascade #1 · pending · 2029-03-31 — Cislunar / lunar surface humanoid deployment commitment pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — US or EU public funding package for Greenland critical-minerals infrastructure pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Critical Metals or KoBold opens Greenland pilot processing plant pre #3 · pending · 2028-03-31 — First commercial humanoid robot deployed in Arctic mining or harsh-environment field test pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Humanoid robot unit cost <$30K plus reliability validated in industrial setting pre #1 · pending · 2029-09-15 — First commercial Greenland rare earth or graphite shipment to non-Chinese refiner cascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Asteroid mining commercial commodity return predates Greenland operational mine cascade #2 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #3 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-18 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First humanoid OEM ships robot with thermal/IR sensor module pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-09 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Figure or Tesla announces multi-spectral perception SDK / customer feature pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — First commercial humanoid deployment in domain requiring beyond-visible perception pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-23 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-19 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-13 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Helix 02 (or successor) demonstrates room-scale autonomy on novel tasks not in training distribution pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Industry-wide acceptance of VLA (Vision-Language-Action) models as standard humanoid stack pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-27 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Cross-domain transfer: warehouse Helix model generalizes to home tasks (or vice versa) pre #1 · pending · 2027-09-30 — Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 cascade #1 · pending · 2027-12-01 — Robot foundation model hits 100M+ data hours — scaling-law inflection pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Figure home pilot — long-horizon tasks in unseen homes pre #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Figure deploys F.03 in non-automotive vertical (logistics, retail, home) pre #4 · pending · 2027-04-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-31 — Vertical/form-factor humanoid wins >=20% of new automotive orders pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-02 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Robot-built-robot demonstration at BotQ pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Helix or successor whole-body control model publicly benchmarks task-completion time vs. 2026 pre #5 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Figure or peer reports field humanoids running at >=3x current observed speed in customer site pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-30 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — BotQ factory throughput hits one Figure unit per minute or faster pre #2 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Industry benchmark (e.g. RoboHIVE, BEHAVIOR) records 5x speedup on humanoid manipulation tasks pre #1 · pending · 2029-03-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Tesla Optimus production crosses 10,000 cumulative units pre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #4 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. pre #3 · pending · 2028-09-15 — Annual humanoid robot production (industry-wide) crosses 1 million units pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 cascade #1 · pending · 2030-09-15 — Tesla or Figure crosses 10M cumulative humanoid units cascade #2 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments cascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Hyperscaler combined 2026 capex reaches $725B (77% YoY increase) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Amazon expects negative free cash flow ~$17B in 2026 from AI capex pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-08 — Hyperscaler 2027 capex guidance maintains >=20% YoY growth pre #2 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First public hyperscaler reports negative cumulative FCF for trailing 24 months pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — AI data center capex sustains >=$800B aggregate by FY2028 cascade #1 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #2 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Waymo expands to Philadelphia + 5 additional metros, fleet >5000 robotaxis pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Frontline rideshare driver job count contracts ≥30% in robotaxi-enabled metros (cumulative 2026-2028) cascade #1 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #2 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · hit · 2024-12-31 — Humanoid robot market sized at $1.55B in 2024 (Grand View Research baseline) pre #5 · pending · 2027-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-16 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2028-10-08 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-16 — Tesla / Figure / 1X cumulative humanoid units exceed 1 million cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-31 — Humanoid plus automation TAM revised to $1T+ by major analyst cascade #2 · pending · 2029-12-16 — Humanoid plus automation market hits $50T (Musk's claim) cascade #3 · pending · 2030-03-17 — Humanoid plus general automation market reaches $15B (MarketsandMarkets 2030 forecast) pre #6 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. pre #5 · pending · 2030-08-29 — With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. pre #4 · pending · 2036-01-01 — Cumulative humanoid robot fleet crosses 10M units globally (Goldman blue-sky path) pre #3 · pending · 2038-07-02 — Demonstration of 1,000+ humanoid robot construction crew building first major structure (skyscraper, factory, dam) pre #2 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. pre #1 · pending · 2043-11-16 — Cumulative humanoid robot fleet reaches 10B (Holz's 2045 number) pre #5 · pending · 2026-09-27 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-03-01 — Tesla Optimus or competitor humanoid robot demonstrated performing autonomous construction-like task on simulated lunar/ pre #2 · pending · 2027-07-26 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2027-11-01 — NASA, ESA, or commercial partner announces formal contract for humanoid-robot lunar surface construction services cascade #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — SpaceX Starship cargo mission to Mars launch attempt with humanoid robots aboard cascade #2 · pending · 2028-03-16 — SpaceX uncrewed Lunar Starship lands successfully near Shackleton Crater cascade #3 · pending · 2032-07-01 — First habitable structure (>1 person, >7 days endurance) erected on lunar surface pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Major chain (≥3 of top-10) deploys robotic kitchen automation production pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). pre #2 · pending · 2027-03-16 — First chain announces humanoid robots replacing crew positions in US store pre #1 · pending · 2027-04-01 — Fast food labor headcount declines ≥3% YoY in BLS data citing automation cascade #1 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #3 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. cascade #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. pre #4 · pending · 2027-06-30 — Figure ships first humanoid robots into consumer/home iteration pre #3 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First QSR chain announces multi-store humanoid VLA deployment with operational task scope pre #2 · pending · 2028-01-01 — VLA model class achieves >90% task success rate on standardized restaurant task benchmark pre #1 · pending · 2029-02-14 — First QSR labor displacement disclosure (>500 jobs) attributed to humanoid automation cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments cascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-30 — RobotLAB / industry consensus: commercial robot plumber 'by end of decade' pre #5 · pending · 2026-05-02 — 1X Neo housekeeper at $20K reaches consumer market pre #4 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-14 — Humanoid dexterous-manipulation benchmark fails plumbing tasks pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-02 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-09-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%) cascade #1 · pending · 2030-04-01 — First commercially viable humanoid trades robot reaches market cascade #2 · pending · 2030-08-16 — BLS HVAC employment grows 8% (2024-2034) per official projection pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Major data-center operator (Equinix, Digital Realty, AWS, Microsoft, Google) announces robotics-assisted construction pi pre #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Boston Dynamics, Figure, Agility, or Apptronik secures multi-million-dollar data-center construction contract pre #4 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Hyperscaler (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta) discloses humanoid-robot deployment in earnings call or sustainability report pre #3 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Public video / press tour shows >2 humanoid robots performing distinct construction tasks at one data-center site pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-20 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-01-01 — Construction industry analyst report quantifies labor-substitution by humanoid robots in tier-1 verticals cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Cascade: Robotics-built data center reaches commissioning pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston pre #1 · pending · 2026-05-17 — 1X opens U.S. (Hayward CA) factory to support NEO production at 10K/yr capacity cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Bernt Bornich (1X CEO) publicly confirms shipment to Peter Diamandis specifically cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-16 — 1X NEO begins consumer home shipments in 2026 (Early Access) cascade #3 · pending · 2026-09-22 — Diamandis shares first home-use video/post of 1X NEO at his residence cascade #4 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Total cumulative NEO consumer deliveries reach 1,000+ units globally in 2026 cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Figure achieves total China supply-chain decoupling milestone pre #2 · pending · 2027-01-14 — Figure announces Abundance Summit 2027 attendance / speaker slot pre #1 · pending · 2027-06-15 — Figure 03 robot demonstrated to Peter Diamandis on stage at Abundance Summit 2027 cascade #1 · pending · 2027-09-15 — Figure 03 unit confirmed delivered to Diamandis personally cascade #2 · pending · 2027-12-15 — Cascade: Figure annual production reaches 12K unit run-rate (initial line cap) cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #4 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #6 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. pre #6 · pending · 2026-07-19 — Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. pre #5 · pending · 2026-07-21 — Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). pre #3 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Zoox launches robotaxis in Austin and Miami (own-app expansion) pre #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Zoox commences mapping / pre-deployment testing fleet in Los Angeles metro pre #1 · pending · 2027-07-16 — Zoox robotaxi service publicly launches in Los Angeles via Uber app (mid-2027) cascade #1 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #2 · pending · 2029-04-19 — Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial pre #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Amazon robot count exceeds human warehouse worker count in US fulfillment network pre #2 · pending · 2027-11-09 — Amazon achieves first 'lights-out' (zero-human) fulfillment shift in major facility pre #1 · pending · 2028-03-31 — Cascade: Walmart, FedEx, or UPS announces matching robot-majority workforce strategy cascade #1 · pending · 2028-12-15 — Cascade: Total US warehouse FTE declines >=15% YoY for first time on record cascade #2 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #3 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · pending · 2027-12-29 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #5 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Cumulative humanoid robot units deployed in commercial settings exceeds 50,000 pre #4 · pending · 2027-12-31 — Tesla Optimus achieves stated 'high-volume' production pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-30 — AI software market growth (~20% CAGR) sustains 3+ years while humanoid market remains <$10B pre #2 · pending · 2028-10-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-12-31 — Industrial humanoid robot ROI parity reached for first major use-case cascade #1 · pending · 2029-08-28 — Robots-lag-software validated by 2029 pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-15 — XPENG IRON ET1 first prototype rolls off production line pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Unitree ships 10,000-20,000 humanoid units in 2026 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — US/Western humanoid <$30K price point reaches mass production cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector pre #6 · hit · 2025-12-31 — Chinese humanoid robot patent filings >5x US pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-21 — China captures >90% of global humanoid robot sales 2025 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US administrative action targets Chinese humanoid imports cascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla Optimus mass production lags Unitree cascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Tesla Optimus V3 reaches 1M unit annual production pre #5 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. pre #4 · pending · 2027-09-16 — SpaceX Starfactory 1000-Starships/yr target validates auto-only path pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. pre #2 · pending · 2028-07-01 — First public benchmark test of humanoid in aerospace tooling task pre #1 · pending · 2028-11-16 — First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. cascade #1 · pending · 2032-12-31 — Humanoid robot performs full rocket sub-assembly task autonomously cascade #2 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments cascade #3 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #4 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-14 — Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-01 — Optimus 1M-unit/yr Fremont line in prep cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Tesla AI5 chip enters production for Optimus & robotaxi cascade #3 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #4 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Tesla 2026 capex doubles to $20B+ for AI/robotics cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Competing humanoid players (Figure, 1X) match vertical-integration playbook cascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-10 — Unitree R1 humanoid global launch at $4,370 starting price pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Unitree opens first directly-operated retail store in Beijing (consumer access) pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-15 — Quadruped robot prices fall to ~10K yuan ($1,400) entry-level pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Unitree ships 10K-20K humanoid robots in 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Chinese humanoid output grows 94% YoY; Unitree+AgiBot capture ~80% market share cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #4 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #5 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time pre #6 · pending · 2026-12-30 — Waymo reaches 1 million weekly rides target pre #5 · pending · 2028-02-09 — Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump ad pre #4 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Uber facilitates 1M+ autonomous rides per week globally (matches/passes Waymo) pre #3 · pending · 2028-06-06 — Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. pre #2 · pending · 2028-11-30 — Scenario fires: Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 pre #1 · pending · 2029-06-01 — Uber autonomous ride volume exceeds Waymo direct-app rides in 2029 cascade #1 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #3 · pending · 2034-07-11 — Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments cascade #4 · pending · 2038-10-01 — Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. cascade #5 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #3 · pending · 2027-02-22 — Q1 window check-in (25%) pre #2 · pending · 2027-12-17 — Q2 window check-in (50%) pre #1 · pending · 2028-10-10 — Q3 window check-in (75%) pre #6 · pending · 2026-08-12 — By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). pre #5 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Tesla breaks ground on 10M-unit/year Optimus factory at Giga Texas pre #4 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Figure deploys autonomous in-home humanoid in unseen environments pre #3 · pending · 2027-06-16 — In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. pre #2 · pending · 2027-08-16 — Cumulative humanoid robot deployments cross 100K units across all manufacturers pre #1 · pending · 2027-12-15 — First measurable services-sector productivity uplift from humanoid deployment cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time cascade #4 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #5 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · pending · 2029-07-30 — By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world pre #5 · pending · 2030-06-19 — Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. pre #4 · pending · 2030-06-24 — Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time pre #3 · pending · 2030-07-02 — First widely reported humanoid robot product recall or fleet-wide grounding pre #2 · pending · 2032-09-30 — Industry pivots from monolithic humanoid to modular/embedded form factors pre #1 · pending · 2033-12-31 — Scenario fires: Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 cascade #1 · pending · 2045-07-19 — David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months pre #4 · partial · 2025-11-30 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-19 — Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 cascade #3 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector cascade #5 · pending · 2031-09-23 — Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. cascade #6 · pending · 2032-12-15 — Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Hyperscaler AI traffic capex includes net-new bandwidth/spectrum line item pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-27 — Starlink/Kuiper announce robot/AV-class connectivity tier cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production start signals demand validation for connected humanoids cascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Cellular IoT module shipments for robotics/AV cross 100M annualized cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #5 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Spectrum policy: FCC or peer regulator allocates net-new AI-machine-class spectrum cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-29 — Major US/EU news incident: humanoid robot injures human at consumer-facing event cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — ASTM/ISO publishes first humanoid-specific safety standard cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First US state introduces legislation regulating humanoid robots in public spaces cascade #5 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Polling shows majority of Americans 'concerned' about humanoid robots in public cascade #6 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cybersecurity firm publishes proof-of-concept exploit for production humanoid robot fleet pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — SoftWear Automation releases third-gen T-shirt Sewbot for commercial sale cascade #3 · pending · 2027-01-30 — BESTSELLER or comparable apparel major announces production volume from Sewbot lines cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-16 — First humanoid-robot fashion-stitching demo from Figure/1X/Apptronik cascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #6 · pending · 2027-08-01 — Sewbot or Sewbo deploys at scale outside textile pilot plants — 100+ units in commercial use pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cu pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-20 — Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 cascade #2 · pending · 2026-08-15 — Tesla Optimus 3 begins production at Fremont (summer 2026) cascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — First peer-reviewed paper on multi-modal embodied 'general' robot intelligence cascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-17 — Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. cascade #5 · pending · 2027-09-03 — Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 cascade #6 · pending · 2027-09-16 — Genetic-engineering policy debate around human germline editing intensifies target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift 58 plotted · click any dot for detail
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.