Timeline Fan

413 of 413 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior.

Filter by ticker

Click a symbol to scope to claims affecting that company

IBM 815 CRWV 701 ACN 413 CTSH 413 INFY 413 AMZN 405 GOOGL 404 META 404 MSFT 404 NVDA 404 AI 403 BABA 403 BBAI 403 CHGG 403

Filters

Fork by

Off (single timeline)$1T+ IPO AGI AI pause ASI Mars uncrewed Recession Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)

Tradeable only

Yes (≥1 ticker, default)No (all predictions)

Window

next 12 mo next 24 mo next 5 yr (default)5y + tail

Resolved

Hide (default — live forecasts only)Include Resolved only

Top predictors

All Alex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)

411 plotted · 2 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior. Scoped to CTSH.

CTSH-impacting (4)

235_030

ACN · AI · AMZN · BABA

Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.

75% → 39% · resolves 2033-09

-36pp

232_055

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.

70% → 35% · resolves 2028-06

-35pp

247_035

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade

70% → 39% · resolves 2030-06

-31pp

240_036

ACN · AI · AMD · AMZN

TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040

65% → 34% · resolves 2040-11

-31pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)

AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum

Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.